NFL Prop Pick 3.1

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Week 3 NFL Prop Pick 3.1 Focus: WR Randall Cobb, DAL vs MIA

WR Stats – Randall Cobb (5′ 10″, 195 lbs.)

Cobb has found himself in another great situation that he fits perfectly into. He already has at least five catches in each of his first two games. The Cowboys have big play threats that allow Cobb to operate freely underneath as a reliable target in the Dallas offense. My usual biggest concern, rapport doesn’t seem to be an issue at all so there’s no reason to think it will be going forward this weekend.

Usage and high quality targets have both been there for two weeks in a row. Cobb is fourth on the team in total snaps (53), and snap percentage (70.6%). Just for some perspective he has out-snapped M. Gallup, so we know that Cobb is firmly entrenched in this offense. Speaking of Gallup, his 7.5 targets a game will have to go somewhere. I don’t think they’ll all be going to Cobb, but it’s reasonable to assume some of those opportunities will be coming Randall’s way as the 2nd option in the pass game.

Receiving by Route

Receiving by Depth & Direction

Cobb has been the consummate slot receiver, working on or around the line of scrimmage and using his ball skills to produce an extremely high conversion percentage.

Week 1 Individual Matchups vs NYG

Week 2 Individual Matchups at WAS

There are a few positive takeaways from zooming in on the individual matchups thus far. First, both targets and target conversion have been consistent. Also, defenses have tried to mix up their slot coverage against Cobb and that hasn’t stopped Prescott from targeting him regularly. I expect usage to continue at the very least, if not progress going forward.

QB: Dak Prescott, 2019

Dak has been nothing short of awesome this year. He’s playing behind a quality line, with one of the best backs in the game. His production is legit and continues beyond this weekend in my opinion.

Opposing Defensive Ranks: Miami Dolphins

Miami’s defense has been horrible, and it’s not looking like that’s about to change anytime soon. According to https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ the 2019 Dolphins are the absolute worst defense by DVOA against the pass (+109.0%). To give you some perspective, the next worst pass defense is the Giants (73.5%) which makes MIA more than 30% worse than the 31st ranked team. Woof.

Individual 2019 CB Usage vs Slot: MIA

NFL Prop Pick 3.1: Randall Cobb OVER 4.5 Receptions (-122)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles for reference. Since the odds are plus, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the Over 4.5 Recs.

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

I play every single bet I’ve ever put out for you, the readers. I would never recommend something I’m not willing to wager on myself.

An Alternate Approach to Week 3 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk.

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines.

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.

For example(s)