NFL Prop Pick 2.1

RING THE BELL! THE NEW YORK PROP EXCHANGE IS OPEN! Fresh off a huge MLB season, Mr. Moving Averages himself has developed a brand new program for your Week 2 NFL Prop Pick 2.1, found exclusively at windailysports.com. Make sure to regularly check my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg.

Week 2 NFL Prop Pick 2.1 Focus: T.J. Hockenson TE vs LAC

Game Log – T.J. Hockenson (6’5” 257 lbs.)

Those are the usage numbers of an offense’s focal point. I’m extremely bullish on Hock and the way he fits into this Lion pass attack.

Detroit Lions Week 1 Passing Usage

Last year the Lions got away from the TE and it hurt them. Toilolo lead all TEs in targets with only 24. The year prior to that, Stafford went to his boy Eric Ebron 86 times over the course of the season.

QB Stats: Matt Stafford Game Log (Last 5 GS)

Opposing Team Defensive Ranks: Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Defense vs TE

Individual Defensive Alignment

All three linebackers likely lining up against T.J. will be giving up both weight and height to him. The Chargers will be forced to pay extra attention to Golladay while simultaneously accounting for Kerryon out of the backfield. Any sacrifice from the middle of the defense allows for a release from Hock and hopefully a plethora of catches.

Individual Defensive Success Rate

Above average percentage completion against bodes well for us in this one.

The Prop Breakdown:

Big Hock is just that; Big, and that’s exactly the type of game I expect from him again Sunday. This prop play is essentially game script independent for me. If the Lions get ahead, he not only likely contributed but also will be used for crucial conversions to close out. If they fall behind, he’ll be deployed to move the chains trying to catch up. I perceive this to be the biggest (and maybe only) plus matchup for the Lions on the offensive side of things. Hock is going to continue to be targeted and relied upon to get first downs while his WRs have their hands full with the LAC secondary.

Week 2 NFL Prop Pick 2.1: T.J. Hockenson OVER 4.5 Receptions (+129)

I’m going to use one hundred dollars as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles as the season progresses. The most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the Over 4.5. This bet yields a (P/L 129.0%).

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN ONE PERCENT OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT, OR MORE THAN 3% ON ANY NIGHT. EVER.

WE DON’T TILT AND WE DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

An Alternate Approach to Week 2 NFL Prop Pick Strategy:

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk. Sure, the easy way to attack today’s play is to bet our hundred dollars on O 4.5 Recpts for a returned profit of $29 (+29%, which is excellent!).

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines.

Using that same hundred bucks, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.