NFL Prop Pick 1.3

The NFL season is upon us. In case you thought I was just a one sport wonder, I really burned the midnight oil to bring you something new that I’m extremely proud of. I developed a brand new program for your Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.3, found exclusively at windailysports.com. Make sure to regularly check my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. This has been an incredible experience so far.

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Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.3 Focus: Dede Westbrook WR v KC

Game Log – D.Westbrook

WR Stats – D.Westbrook (6’0” 178 lbs.)

Dede had at least five grabs in five games last year despite being one of only 37 players to get 100 targets. That was with Blake Bortles.

WR Alignment – D.Westbrook

I expect Westbrook to operate out of the slot, and get a lot of attention. Michael Florio at NFL.com writes ”The Chiefs allowed 92.9 receiving yards per game to the slot last season, which was the ninth-most in the NFL. That bodes well for Westbrook, who led the NFL with 441 slot routes in 2018. Additionally, he was fourth in targets from the slot (84) and that was before Nick Foles joined the Jaguars. Foles threw to the slot 36.4 percent of the time last season, the most in the NFL now that Andrew Luck is retired. He throws more to the slot then he did out wide (27.7 percent). Seven of the 10 passes Foles threw this preseason went to Westbrook.” For the record, Mike is not only an extremely talented fantasy mind, but an extremely nice guy to boot. Make sure you follow all of his work.

QB Stats: Nick Foles

Nick Foles represents a pretty significant upgrade in signal calling for Dede, the best he’s played with so far. Foles also loves the slot WR so I’m expecting not only volume to increase, but the quality of those targets to increase as well.

Opposing 2018 Defensive Ranks Entering Week 1: Kansas City

• Overall Defense – 24th
• Plays Run Against – 31st
• Total Yards – 31st
• Pass Yards Allowed – 31st
• Total Pass Attempts – 32nd
• Pass Completions Allowed – 31st

2018 Chiefs Defense by WR type:

Individual CB Alignment

Individual CB Success Rate

The Week 1 Breakdown:

The Chiefs secondary was not only atrocious last year, but that quick scoring offense didn’t do them any favors. They ranked near the bottom of almost every major defensive passing category and I don’t think the addition of Breeland will do too much to stop it.

Dede spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, his anticipated matchup being primarily against K.Fuller. Fuller allows an above average completion percentage and should be beatable throughout the game. The Chiefs allowed nearly 16 pass attempts per game to the slot in 2018; If we can catch a third of those, we’re in the money.

This play should be game script independent. Whether this turns out to be a shootout or a dogfight, there’s a great chance that the Jaguars passing offense revolves around Westbrook. This could easily cash in the first half, which brings me to a very important tip on betting props.

Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.3: D. Westbrook OVER 4.5 Receptions (-145)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles as the season progresses. The most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the O 4.5 (-145). This bet yields $69 (P/L 69.0%).

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

An Alternate Approach to Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk. Sure, the easy way to attack today’s play is to bet our $100 on O 3.5 Recpts (-122) for a return of $82 (82%, which is excellent!).

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines. This will allow us to potentially double our profit if Moncrief is heavily involved, making a few extra grabs on Sunday. Simultaneously we would still be maintaining a respectable +9% profit if he only makes the minimum 4 catches. If he makes a 5th grab, we’re at essentially the same return as betting the $100 (-122) except we have the ability to keep climbing.

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.

Examples of Weighted Plays

Since, I’ve written this up, the line have moved against us. It can definitely be a good sign to be in front of the market, but its also beginning to get expensive. Once we hit that (-140) mark, it might be a good time to consider using one of the weighted plays above.