NFL Prop Pick 2.2

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Week 2 NFL Prop Pick 2.2 Focus: WR Cole Beasley BUF at NYG

Game Log 2018

Cole has changed jerseys but there are two important takeaways above; First, Beasley has shown to be able to sustain a very high conversion percentage (nearly 75% for the season), and at a high volume if need be.

WR Stats – Cole Beasley (5’8, 174 lbs)

The usage and targets were both there against a much tougher Jet defense last week. Beasley saw the field for 48 of 69 offensive snaps, a 70% usage. Cole was in the slot for 90% of his snaps in Week 1 and I fully expect to see Cole continue to see the majority of snaps there again this weekend. Of all players with 15+ snaps, only L. Fitzgerald had a higher percentage of them from the slot (94.6%).

Week 1 Individual Matchups vs NYJ

The Jets tried everything against Beasley but his particular style of receiving becomes very difficult to defend while trying to keep Allen contained, especially from a reception standpoint.

QB: Josh Allen, 2019

I’m not about to make the case for Allen as a prolific passer. However he has shown some bright spots when playing the short in and out game that got him here, which lends itself to a lot of looks for Beasley. Volume plus efficiency will be the key to cashing this bet.

Opposing Defensive Ranks: New York Giants

The Giants were at the bottom of most major defensive passing categories, and it looks like we’re in for more of the same, at least until the young corners they brought in this offseason get some experience. It’s only been a week but the G-men are already ranked 30th or worse in Overall Defense, Pass Rush & WR Coverage. The door is wide open to cash this bet early.

Giant Defense by WR type:

According to https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ The 2018 Giants were the 7th worst defense by DVOA against the pass (+16.0%), and the 7th worst defense against the slot WR (+18.50%). Those trends continued this year against the Cowboys last week, who moved the ball effortlessly through the air in week one.

Individual 2019 CB Usage: NYG

Beasley expects to see the most of Haley in a mix of the Giants three worst CBs, as Jenkins who occupies the outside will most likely be following John Brown around the field; Haley is allowing over 70% of passes thrown his way to be completed so far in 2019. Check another box for our boy Cole on Sunday.

NFL Prop Pick 2.2: Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 Receptions (+131)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles for reference. Since the odds are plus, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the Over 4.5 Recs.

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

I play every single bet I’ve ever put out for you, the readers. I would never recommend something I’m not willing to wager on myself.

An Alternate Approach to Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk.

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines.

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.

For example(s)