NFL Prop Pick 1.2

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Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.2 Focus: WR Jarvis Landry v TEN

2018 Game Log

WR Stats – J.Landry (5’11”195 lbs)

Landry eclipsed five catches in eight games last year. It’s also very important to note that his best games came against teams in the bottom of defensive DVOA vs the slot (HOU, NYJ, TB). The Titans were 6th worst in the NFL last year.

WR Alignment – J.Landry

I fully expect to see Landry continue to operate primarily out of the slot this weekend.

QB Stats: Baker Mayfield

The raw numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page at first, but the spike in completion percentage midway through last season should be noted. Mayfield showed he has the talent to be prolific if he continues to sharpen his game. Adding talent like Beckham never hurts either.

Opposing 2018 Defensive Ranks Entering Week 1: Tennessee

• Pass Attempts – 10th
• Completions – 8th
• Pass Yards – 6th

I wouldn’t get too scared of the passing ranks at face value. Most resulted from trailing the entirety of last year.

2018 Titan Defense by WR type:

According to https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ The 2018 Titans were the 12th worst defense by DVOA against the pass (+9.40%), and the 6th worst defense against the slot WR (+19.40%).

Individual 2018 CB Alignment

Landry will likely see Ryan and Sims most of the day in the slot. It will be interesting to see if the Titans use the larger Sims or quicker Ryan to cover Jarvis. I don’t think either will prevent him from moving the chains Sunday.

Individual 2018 CB Success Rate

NFL Prop Pick 1.2: J.Landry OVER 4.5 Receptions (-128)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles for reference. Since the odds are’t crazy, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the O 4.5 (-128). This bet yields $178 (P/L 78.0%).

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

The Breakdown for NFL Prop Pick 1.2 :

Landry was a target magnet last year in his first year with Baker, and I think that connection continues to improve this year as far as timing and continuity. The addition of Beckham will result in less attention for Jarvis, and therefore more space as the clear second passing option. The yardage can be worrisome, but an edge in prop plays is the elimination of extra variables; We’re not concerned with yards whatsoever today.

The Titans bring back an average secondary with below average completion percentages against. Landry should find plenty of room as the Titans are focused elsewhere trying to contain Chubb and Beckham.

This play should be game script independent. Whether this turns out to be a shootout or a dogfight, there’s a great chance that the Browns short passing game works through Landry. This could easily cash in the first half, which brings me to a very important tip on betting props.

An Alternate Approach to Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk. Sure, the easy way to attack today’s play is to bet our $100 on O 4.5 Recpts (-128) for a return of $78 (78%, which is excellent!).

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines.

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.

For example(s)