NFL Prop Pick 1.1

The weather cooling down, leaves changing color and withdrawing tons of cash from the MLBMA betting account can only mean one thing; The NFL season is upon us. I developed a brand new program for your Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.1, found exclusively at windailysports.com. Make sure to regularly check my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg.

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Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.1 Focus: WR Donte Moncrief @NE

Game Log

WR Stats – D.Moncrief (6’2” 216 lbs.)

Moncrief surpassed 3.5 catches seven times last year, and that’s before accounting for the change in teams/QBs (and the quantum leap in terms of offensive potency that comes with it). Going from JAX to PIT is an instant boost for any WR, especially on a team looking to fill the massive target void (169) left by AB84.

WR Alignment – D.Moncrief

Keep in mind this was with a different team, but it’s not too dissimilar from Antonio Brown’s alignment last year. Similarly, both spent over ninety percent of their plays being used lined up wide.

QB Stats: Big Ben

Opposing 2018 Defensive Ranks Entering Week 1: New England

• Total Yards – 21st
• Pass Yards Allowed – 22nd
• Total Pass Attempts – 28th
• Pass Completions Allowed – 22nd

2018 Defense by WR type:

Individual CB Alignment

Individual CB Success Rate

The Patriots were middle of the pack by DVOA against the slot, and saw just over 16 targets thrown there per game in 2018.

Week 1 NFL Prop Pick 1.1: D. Moncrief OVER 3.5 Receptions (-122)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ll be adding alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles as the season progresses. Since the freight here is relatively small and I’m allergic to juice, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the O 3.5 (-122). This bet yields $82 (P/L 82.0%).

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

The Week 1 Breakdown:

Here we have a clear case of preseason value found in the unknown. In other words, this is likely our only chance to have such a low bar on such a high powered offense. Not much to say about Big Ben other than to expect more of the same as long as the big guy is standing upright.

The 2019 Patriots secondary is essentially unchanged from last year. That same defense occupied the bottom third in 2018 passing yards allowed, and pass completions allowed. They were also below average in targets and yards per game to both the number one and number two receiver.

Donte should see a mix of Patriot CBs, who will undoubtedly be focused on the other Steeler weapons. I don’t expect Gilmore to shadow JuJu, but we do know that Bill Belichick will have something up his sleeve. New England will likely use a bracket coverage to contain Smith-Schuster while simultaneously spying Conner. Subsequently, Moncrief could easily find himself facing plenty of single coverage resulting in a plethora of targets.

This play should be game script independent. Whether this turns out to be a shootout or a dogfight, there’s a great chance that Ben continues his heavy WR usage. This could easily cash in the first half, which brings me to a very important tip on betting props.

An Alternate Approach to Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life, you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk. Sure, the easy way to attack today’s play is to bet our $100 on O 3.5 Recpts (-122) for a return of $82 (82%, which is excellent!).

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using live lines. This will allow us to potentially double our profit if Moncrief is heavily involved, making a few extra grabs on Sunday. Simultaneously we would still be maintaining a respectable +9% profit if he only makes the minimum 4 catches. If he makes a 5th grab, we’re at essentially the same return as betting the $100 (-122) except we have the ability to keep climbing.

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production.

For example:

In this example, potential profit more than doubles from 82.0% to 197.20% if Moncrief goes off without having to take an all or nothing approach. I like the progressive payouts, with guaranteed profit at a low bar.