Adam Strangis NFL Prop Bets Week 14
After a clean sweep on Sunday’s main slate, we trudged through the prime time games but still manage to bring a 51-27 record into this week’s main slate. We’ve also gotten he pizza money record up to 3-4. It still needs some work but we’re getting there. There’s no shortage of games and options this week so let’s dive into NFL Prop Bets Week 14 and win some money!
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Prop One
Jonathan Taylor Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
It’s starting to look like Taylor is seizing control of this backfield. He did mis one game to being on the Covid list, but in his last two he’s posted 90 and 91 yards rushing. When the Colts finally started to ride him later in the game against Houston, he helped put it away with back-to-back 20+ yard runs. We witnessed Ty Johnson of the Jets put up 100+ yards rushing last week against the Raiders. There is no reason Taylor shouldn’t hit this mark with 12-14 carries with room to spare.
Prop Two
Sammy Watkins Over 3.5 Receptions
This is a way to get a piece of the Chiefs offense without having to get involved in the main trio. All of their props are spiked super high, but Watkins only need four receptions. He actually has a 15.4% target share on the season and has only missed this mark one time in any healthy game he’s played. It’s no real surprise that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce command the attention. With Byron Jones and Xavien Howard for the Dolphins occupied elsewhere, Watkins will be in the slot enough to pick on Nik Needham. I’m a fan of getting this as an underdog to boot.
Prop Three
Corey Davis Over 4.5 Receptions
Here’s a fun fact – Davis has a higher yardage prop than teammate A.J. Brown does by almost 10 yards. That’s a healthy amount and Davis has a 23.8% target share this season. He’s hit this mark in seven of 10 games so far and against the Jacksonville defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass, it should be a fairly easy play here. Davis is not getting the respect he deserves in this offense for the most part and this is the “safest” of the props we have this week.
Prop Four
Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions
I’m not sure if this is a hot take, but I don’t think the Chargers will run the ball well this week. Atalanta has given up the second-fewest rushing yards to backs and are sitting in the top 10 in DVOA against the run. That’s fine. I don’t want the Chargers to run the ball effectively because that means Justin Herbert will pass more. With Ekeler already collecting 25 targets in two games since returning from injury, he should have plenty of chances here. I also have another semi-hot take for Ekeler in the Cash Game Checkdown, which I covered this week.
NFL Prop Bets Week 14: Pizza Money Bet of the Week
Dalvin Cook Over 4.5 Receptions
Cook has a very difficult matchup on the ground in this upcoming game. Tampa boasts the best rush defense in football as far as allowing rushing yards. However, for the same reasons as Ekeler that could boost the receiving production for Cook. Over the past four games, Cook has gotten more involved in the passing game as well. His target share is 15.4% and his receptions are six, four, five and four. That’s worth a look in this spot.
Record – 51-27
Pizza Money – 3-4
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