Adam Strangis NFL Prop Bets Week 12
We have been cooking with fire in this article lately, going 4-0 again last week on the main bets. Thanksgiving was good to us as well, with a 3-0 main bets record and 1-1 on Pizza Money Bets! That brings to cumulative record to 28-19 which is not too shabby. We’ll be looking to get over that 60% mark this week but it’s also a good time for a reminder. The last three Prop articles have gone a cumulative 11-0. That’s awesome, but not normal. Keep managing that bankroll in a smart and responsible way as we build it up further with NFL Prop Bets Week 12!
Be sure when placing your bets to use the WinDaily link to DraftKings Sportsbook and all bets are placed using their odds! Take advantage of the deposit bonus where you get a 20% match up to $500!
Prop One
Jarvis Landry O 3.5 Receptions
I mentioned last week that I like to use one prop as a type of “safety net” and Landry really jumps out at me. It might not seem like a safe play with Landry totaling two, three and four receptions in his last three games. However, the Browns are out of Cleveland this week. The weather looks solid. Jacksonville will be missing multiple corners in this game and that’s going to get Landry to this number with relative ease. He has a target share approaching 30% since Odell Beckham was injured and this week he’ll remind folks that he’s good receiver.
Prop Two
Darren Waller O 5.5 Receptions
We have an alpha in the Raiders passing game going against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop his position all season long. The Falcons are tied for the third-most receptions to tight ends and Waller has a target share just under 28% on the year. No other Vegas player is over 13.7%. Waller has hit this prop five of 10 times so far but the matchup is just too good to pass up. Atlanta should be able to score a few points even with a banged up offense and they have no means of stopping Waller.
Prop Three
Sterling Shepard O 4.5 Receptions
It’s not often that we trust Daniel Jones, but Shepard has been putting in consistent work since returning from injury Week 7. Shepard has a 24.6% target share since that point, co-leading the team with Evan Engram. That’s meant at least six targets in every single game and averaging eight. He’s recorded at least six receptions in all four games and the aDOT of 6.5 means he’s seeing high-percentage targets close to the line of scrimmage. That’s why we’re betting receptions and not yards, as none of those four games have exceeded 74 yards. I don’t trust Danny Dimes THAT much.
Prop Four
Curtis Samuel O 49.5 Receiving Yards
It’s hard not to like receivers against the Vikings. They’ve given up the seventh-most yards among teams that have played only 10 games and the Panthers offense should be able to take advantage here. Samuel has not dropped under five targets since Week 5 and routinely played about 70% of the snaps. He’s also sitting in the slot over half the time, which gives him a great matchup against Jeff Gladney of the Vikings. Gladney has allowed a 14.5 yards per reception and Samuel should be open whenever he pleases in this one.
Prop Five
Justin Herbert O 275.5 Passing Yards
This is a first for the article, but I couldn’t pass this up. We hit this Herbert number last week against the Jets, as it was 277.5. He threw for over 360 yards and the prop went down. Buffalo averages about 250 yards passing given up and are the 14th ranked DVOA against the pass. Herbert seems to be in a shootout every single week and this game is projected as one of the highest O/U on the slate. The kid is averaging about 300 yards per game and has sailed by 276 yards or higher in seven of nine starts.
Pizza Money Bet of the Week
Cole Beasley O 5.5 Receptions
This isn’t the longest odds ever to be sure, but I don’t love a lot of longer shots this week. We’ll get another piece of this shoot out and the Bills will be without John Brown. The speedy wideout has played under 50% of the snaps three times this season. In those three games, Beasley has recorded six, six and 11 receptions. He’s also coming off a game with Brown that he had 11 receptions. This is a solid bet for underdog money.
Record – 28-19
Pizza Money Bets – 1-3
Thank you for reading NFL Prop Bets Week 12! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
