Adam Strangis NFL Prop Bets Week 11
This article last week was perfect at 4-0 and we know sit at 18-16 on the year. Thursday Night Football was heartbreaking, as we had D.K. Metcalf yards and Kyler Murray passing yards. I’ll save the play by play, but both should have really hit with ease. The good news is it really seems we continue to be on the right track and NFL Prop Bets Week 11 is another great week to make some money!
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Prop One
Diontae Johnson O 5.5 Receptions
I mean, come on. You can’t expect me not to take the bait when my boy is a slight underdog to have six receptions. We’ve talked it about it a lot but when he’s been healthy, Johnson has seen double-digit targets every single time. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and even if he gets the toughest corner they have, I’m not worried. Sidney Jones is a decent corner but not enough to stop Johnson this week.
Prop Two
Calvin Ridley O 4.5 receptions
This line is slightly confusing to me. Ridley is off the injury report and is full go for a game that has shoot out potential. The matchup is not scary at any point against the New Orleans corners. Marshon Lattimore (having a rougher season) likely sees Julio Jones. Ridley has a 22.2% target share and has hit five receptions in every healthy game except for one. That was bizarrely a zero catch game but I don’t see that in the range of outcomes here.
Prop Three
Mark Andrews O 3.5 receptions
I like to throw some “safety” in my parlays and I think Andrews represents that this week. In the first game after Nick Boyle was lost for the season, Andrews saw a season-high 70% of the snaps. He’s already only two targets behind Marquise Brown for the team lead and he saw nine looks last week, catching seven of them. The Tennessee defense is struggling mightily and is still down key players. Andrews shouldn’t have much issue getting to this mark in this spot.
Prop Four
Justin Herbert O 277.5 passing yards
We’ve hit this style of prop before and Herbert’s passing yards is too low. He’s taking on the 32nd ranked passing DVOA defense and Herbert has been over this mark in six of eight games. Before last week’s low water mark, he was averaging over 300 yards per game. There should be little resistance here and I believe Herbert gets right back to near 300 yards.
Pizza Money Bet of the Week
Last week, we missed the bet but Josh Reynolds still smashed for us in DFS. I want to be 100% clear – this is meant for a very small bet! It’s a long shot for a reason! I do expect this bet every week to have a good chance to hit, but you must understand to manage the bankroll accordingly with this bet!
Cam Newton Scores At Least 2 Touchdowns
I don’t know how I feel about Cam in DFS this week so I’m getting my exposure here. Of the eight games that Cam has played, he’s found the end zone twice in the game three times. That’s a fairly high ratio and +300 is a really solid price for something that has happened “regularly”. The fact the Texans are 32nd in DVOA against the run certainly helps.
Regular Bet Record – 18-16
Pizza Money Bets – 0-1
Let’s get after it this week my friends and thanks for reading NFL Props Week 11!
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