ddwessels@att.net 
NFL Player Total Prop Bets
Sia and Michael make some NFL Player Total Prop Bets for the 2020 season.
You can find lines and over/unders at DraftKings, FanDuel, and Monkey Knife Fight!
Sia’s Picks
Drew Lock over 3375.5 (-110 on DK)
- @StixPicks likes this one too (needs to average 211 yards per game)
- Defense isn’t good enough to be lockdown so Drew will have all four quarters to throw the ball in most games
- All kinds of weapons with Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Sutton and Fant
- Plus two RB’s that can catch in Lindsay and Melvin
Kenyan Drake over 1050.5 rushing yards (-110 on DK)
- Hate RB props because of injury risk but this one seems worth it.
- No major competition for Kenyan (Chase Edmonds is backup)
- Arizona continues to add weapons on the outside which should free up more space
- If Kyler runs and Read-Option it’ll give freeze the LBs and give Drake the alley he needs to make one cut and fly.
- Note Jason likes the value in Arizona at 60 to 1. If you look at schedule they can get to the playoffs. Tough but doable.
- Note Kyler passing prop is 3950.5. He probably gets there but like this one better.
Davante Adams over 1200.5 yards (-110 on DK)
- 997 yards in 12 games last year. Couple of which he was hobbled
- 2018 he played 15 games and got 1386 yards
- GB going to be more of a running team this year BUT Davante is a lock for major targets if healthy. If he plays 14 games he clears this number. 13 games and it’s still possible.
- He’s still only 27
- Last two games (playoffs) he caught 9 of 10 for 138 and 8 of 11 for 160. Expect a few dud games from Davante but enough huge ones to hit the number
Michael’s Picks
Drew Brees Passing Yards o/u – 4049.5 yds – UNDER -112 (FanDuel)
- Hasn’t hit 4000 yards since 2017.
- Another year older.
- Hurt the last two seasons and Taysom Hill comes in to throw the ball sometimes
- Based on defensive efficiency for 2020 Saints offense is in the bottom half of the league (23rd)
- Also harder based on 2020 SOS from Vegas Win Totals (23rd)
- Balanced run/pass attack, not quite what we remember when they were throwing the ball 650 times a year.
- Last two years: 2019 – 581 to 407; 2018 – 519 to 471
Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards o/u – 1160.5 – OVER -110 (DraftKings)
- CONTRACT YEAR
- Finally healthy last year, only missed two games both towards the end of the season
- Rushing Def against in the top half of the league. If receivers can do anything theyll be able to run as much as they’d like
- Stephanski is leaving but Kubiak had the heaviest hand in creating that offense last year.
- Strength of schedule is easier than average, hopefully leading to more leads late in games and opportunities to run out the clock.
- Nick thinks Mattison and Boone are going to take away carries, but I think Cook hits the over here
Henry Ruggs III Receiving Yards o/u – 740.5 – OVER -112 (FanDuel)
- No other wide receivers there…
- Route runner not just a straight line speed guy
- Darren Waller TE was their leading receiver last year with 90 catches for 1145 yrd – most likely some regression there
- No wide receiver topped 50 catches – Renfrow had 49
- Immediately comes in as the best receiver on the team
- Averaged 17.5 yr/r – if he averages 3 catches a game for 17.5 yards he beats out the 740.5 total
- Bowden will be more of a gadget play
- Never topped 750 in college, but also had 3 other incredible receivers on that team and didn’t need to play all that much in most second halves
Go ahead and place your bets 👉 👉 👉 DraftKings and FanDuel
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