Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday
We are back with the second three game slate of the weekend, and this one is a bi trickier from the salary perspective. Fitting two of the best running backs in fantasy with a top quarterback might be difficult, but we’re going to figure out where the best path is. Even for three games, there’s a lot to get to in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Sunday!
Ravens at Titans, O/U of 54.5 (Ravens -3.5)
Ravens
QB – This slate is a lot different than Sunday at the quarterback position, because I think we only have one very true ceiling option. Perhaps Ryan Tannehill gives him a run for his money, but Lamar Jackson stands out with his rushing ability as the lead dog. He finished the season in style with at least 22 DK in the last five and 26 or higher in three of them. In a game where he’s in desperate need of a win, I’m not going to be surprised in the least if Jackson isn’t out to win it by himself. Even in what was somewhat considered a down year, Jackson was seventh in points per game, third in pDB, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in clean completion rate. He had another 1,000 yard rushing season and finished second in RZ carries. The Tennessee defense finished 30th in DVOA against the pass and Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants. It’s more a question of how to fit him.
RB – I said last week that J.K. Dobbins and I still feel that way to some extent. Let’s look at how he got there. He only had 13 carries on the day, a bit of a red flag to start with. With no receptions, that’s not ideal. He also ripped off a 72-yard touchdown which was worth 16 DK points with the 100-yard bonus. Now, nobody is saying that he can’t replicate that feat against the Titans, who rank 16th in DVOA against the run. Baltimore is one of the best run offenses in football. The other factor to weigh is Dobbins have been involved in blowouts for three straight weeks. He’s only played about half the snaps in those three games. The hard part is trying to play him with the other two big backs that we’ll get to here in a bit.
WR – Hollywood Brown is really going to tempt me on this one. The Ravens are one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in football, and no player surpassed 100 targets this year. Brown was the closest at 99 and he led in air yards share at 37.8%. Brown also led the team in yards and tied for the lead in receptions. Anytime we can get a speedster against the Tennessee secondary, I’m all the way in. The Titans allowed 22 touchdowns (tied for the third-most) and the fourth-most yards.
I hope game log watchers are freaked out by the goose egg Brown threw in the first meeting. Brown is cheap and if he gets on Malcolm Butler, I like his chances for a long bomb. The likelihood is the Titans match him with Adoree’ Jackson, who has the speed to keep up with him. The problem with that at least in the short-term, Jackson has been terrrrrible. He’s been targeted 13 times and has allowed 12 receptions, a 153.4 passer rating and a 3.40 pPT. I’m going to likely end up with some Hollywood this week.
The secondary target in the corps is tough. Willie Snead may or may not play, which in theory could open up a spot for Myles Boykin. I’m very hesitant to use secondary Ravens targets in this game.
TE – Just like Hollywood, Mark Andrews is probably too cheap for his role and matchup. Andrews leads RZ targets and only finished 10 targets behind Brown for the team lead overall. The Titans are average against tight ends and have given up eight touchdowns. He went for 20 DK the first go around and really the only issue is cap space. Can we prioritize a generally expensive tight end? It might be tough. There’s a lot of other players that will be on the forefront, and I’m interested to what we see as far as ownership for Andrews. There is no other reason to not play him against the worst DVOA defense in the field.
D/ST – There’s pretty much no way that I’m playing the Ravens defense. They’re over $3,000 and they have a tough matchup. While they’ve managed to force 22 turnovers, the Titans have only 12 turnovers on the year. That’s been the second fewest on the season and they only allowed 24 sacks on the season. There’s no need to attack this matchup and the only way they pay off is likely if they score a defensive or special teams touchdown. That is a possibility since the Titans were 28th in special teams DVOA.
Cash – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews
GPP – D/ST
Titans
QB – He doesn’t get a ton of attention all the time but Ryan Tannehill was one of the best fantasy options on the year. He finished second in pPD, ninth in points per game, sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in passing touchdowns. Baltimore is 10th in DVOA against the pass and only gave up 21 touchdown passes, tied for second-fewest in the league. It’s really not a great matchup but we shouldn’t cast him aside. He hit over 22 DK points in the first matchup and there’s so little to pick at with him. Unless you think the run game fails, I’m not sure he has the same ceiling that Jackson does. I would be more likely to spend lower at quarterback if going outside of Jackson.
RB – It already feels like Derrick Henry is going to be chalk and it scares the heck out of me to fade him. It’s also at least slightly worrisome to play him at this salary because the Titans defense is so bad, they can ruin any game script. You need at least 27 DK points for 3x, let alone anything else. The matchup isn’t overbearing with the Ravens being 12th in DVOA against the run, but it really feels like Henry is going for 35+ DK or under 10 and there might not be much in-between. Just look at the last five weeks. From last week moving back, he’s scored 39.0, 9.8, 28.2, 39.2 and then 6.9. It’s not a surprise that the two poor games came with Tennessee getting blasted on the scoreboard. My approach is to play three max on these slates, and I will have at least one lineup without Henry.
*Update* The move in GPP is to fade Henry for Kamara in my eyes. You’re trying to finish first, and if Henry duds you have a big leg up.
WR – The massive salary gap is back between A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, with the difference checking in at $2,200. The seasonal stats won’t reflect that as the air yards share is 2.5% difference, targets are only 14 apart, receptions are five apart and yards are under 100 apart. Brown does have a big advantage in touchdowns at 11-5, but past that they are very close. The big factor is choosing correctly, because they did not have big games together this year. Only twice did they both clear 15 Dk in the same game and once came against this Ravens team. Davis scored 19.3, Brown scored 16.2 and Henry scored 23.2.
There seems to be a good reason to believe that not all three of these Titans can crush together. If Henry is imposing his will, the passing game isn’t required to do as much. On the off chance that Henry gets slowed down, the receivers have to pick up the slack. Brown is going to mostly face Jimmy Smith, who played very well this year in his limited time. Over 45 targets, Smith only allowed a 59 passer rating and a 46.7% catch rate. Paying up at other spots likely leaves Brown out of my main builds, though he makes sense if you fade Henry. Davis should get Marcus Peters, who allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 62.7% catch rate. Davis could be a salary saver we just fall into since he’s so cheap.
TE – I probably don’t find myself playing Jonnu Smith very much on this slate. He’s kind of the AFC version of Tyler Higbee, but he scores more touchdowns. Smith is only running a route 65.8% of the time, which is 22nd among tight ends. He didn’t end the season in the top 15 in targets, receptions or yards but he did score nine touchdowns, third-most. With the Ravens only allowing five scores to the position, it’s not exactly the best matchup either.
D/ST – They are the worst defense of any team left in the field, have a 17.3% pressure rate (31st) and only 19 sacks. That’s a hard pass for me.
Cash – Henry, Tannehill
GPP – AJB, Davis, Smith
Bears at Saints, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -10)
Bears
QB – The Bears are the biggest underdog on the entire weekend, and by that logic we should at least consider Mitch Trubisky. If he’s going to be throwing a ton, we could get some much needed salary relief and possibly even garbage time stats. The issue with that approach is he’s still Trubisky, and even last week he threw the ball 42 times for just 252 yards. If he hadn’t rushed for 22 yards, Trubisky wouldn’t have even broken double-digit DK points. That’s the kind of floor he has and he only ended at a 0.46 pDB, 17th in the league. I would really prefer not to play him against the third-best DVOA unit against the pass. A GPP lineup with him and loaded at other positions does make some sense, even if it isn’t pretty on paper.
RB – David Montgomery is a back that the matchup would tell us to fade, but the workload might be too much to ignore. His price came down $800 and I know that playoff pricing can be a little looser, but he still racked up 31 touches last week. Over the past three weeks, he hasn’t been under 25 total touches and that includes 12 receptions. New Orleans does check in as the number two ranked DVOA against the run and the seventh-fewest rushing yards allowed. hey also controlled the backs in the passing game with just 61 receptions allowed, fourth-fewest. With so many other big backs on the slate, I wonder where Monty slots in ownership-wise. It might not be high enough.
WR – It’s be a very volatile back half of the season for Allen Robinson. Since Week 8, he’s had five weeks under 20 DK (what you need for 3x at his current salary) but he’s also had a 30 point effort and 27 point effort mixed in. If you’ve read for most of the year, you know that Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been a corner we’ve feared. Over 83 targets, he’s allowed a 14.2 YPR, 100.3 passer rating and a 1.90 pPT. A-Rob seems underpriced and could go off in the Vegas game script, I just think it’s smart to realize what he’s been for this year. P.S. someone get this man a quarterback for once in his career!
We’ll update this end of things when we know more but Darnell Mooney is questionable and may not play. If he does, he’s going to be on my radar as a punt facing a good deal of Janoris Jenkins. Opposite of Lattimore, Jenkins has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.70 pPT. If Mooney is out, Anthony Miller is likely going to be very popular as a salary saver. Miller grinder a 12.8% target share on the year and if Mooney’s 16.5% share is out, Miller should be in a prime spot to benefit.
*Update* Mooney is out, which leaves Miller as what I’ll bet is very popular.
TE – Since the bye week, Cole Kmet has not played under 70% of the snaps and has been more toward the 90% mark the past three games. The rookie is on the field a ton, and that’s always such a big factor when we look for punts. Jimmy Graham has poached touchdowns to a very annoying degree, but Kmet has 33-19 targets in that time span. Graham has the touchdown lead at 3-1 but I’d rather take the snaps and targets in this price range. New Orleans had issues at times with tight ends as well, allowing them to score nine times, tied for fifth-most in the league.
D/ST – I suppose the Bears defense is about as low as we can be comfortable playing, although I don’t love them. New Orleans only turned the ball over 17 times all year, and Chicago forced just 18. The way New Orleans looked down the stretch and with their injuries/underperformers, Chicago could pay off in this spot.
Cash – Monty, Kmet as a punt, D/ST
GPP – A-Rob, Trubisky, Mooney if active
Saints
QB – You see Drew Brees in a playoff game at $5,700 and you feel like you have to play him, but there’s been some questions about him since coming back from injury. The TD:INT ratio stands at 6:3 which isn’t that great for Brees to start with. He’s been under 240 passing yards in two of three and has been living on the touchdowns, with three scores in two games. Brees just hasn’t passed the eye test that much and the ball doesn’t look great when he throws it. That’s not a huge surprise, as Brees was already 36th in air yards per attempt. The Bears are 13th in DVOA against the pass and even when he was healthy in the first matchup, Brees didn’t hit 20 DK. I’m not convinced we need to try to get him right, but the price is messing with me.
RB – We should see Alvin Kamara get back in time for this game, and you have to imagine that the NFL made sure the Saints played Sunday instead of Saturday. On the off chance he doesn’t play, Latavius Murray would be a lock at $4,500. Let’s figure on Kamara playing and with Brees back in, we know that Kamara will get targeted. Kamara had a 22.9% target share on the season and finished at 107 total. Chicago was second in DVOA against the run but gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. We know that on DK, Kamara is close to matchup-proof because of how many receptions he racks up.
WR – It appears Michael Thomas is back for this game and $6,300 has to be as low as he’s been since his rookie year. He only played seven games this year, but when he was active MT accounted for a 28.1% target share and a 43.6% air yards share. That’s way too much of an offense to be this low, especially with how many times MT could be targeted. The offense is going to flow through him and Kamara, as both could see 10+ looks. Thomas will see probably a mix of Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. They have played well with a pPT not over 1.80, a passer rating no over 90% and Johnson has allowed just a 56.8% catch rate. We just need to keep an eye on the health of Thomas heading into this game.
*Update* MT is active and an interesting stat – He and Brees have played all of 10 quarters together so far this year. That’s it.
Emmanuel Sanders will go back to being third fiddle in the passing game, and still have a tougher matchup against either corner not covering Thomas. Even with Thomas missing nine games, Sanders still din’t break 20% in target share, and that’s a worry. If he’s only gong to get 5-6 targets against the Bears, he’s not likely to be the best play.
TE – Playing Jared Cook depends on what weapons the Saints have available in this game. If everyone is healthy, I think he takes a bit of a hit. I’m not sure this is the truest measure considering how the season went, but Cook did lead the team in EZ targets with nine and tied for the lead in RZ looks. What’s somewhat interesting is the Bears let up 12 touchdowns to tight ends this year, third-most. They were also in the bottom six in receptions and yardage allowed, so this is a soft matchup. He got them the first game with a 5/51/1, but keep in mind that MT was still out as well. The price likely keeps me mostly off Cook.
D/ST – The Saints can bring the heat, racking up the fifth-highest pressure rate and 45 sacks on the season. Getting to Trubisky should lead to mistakes and New Orleans was a top 10 unit in DVOA on the year. I just don’t know if we can afford the highest-priced difference today.
CAsh – Kamara, Thomas
GPP – Brees, Cook, Sanders, D/ST
Browns at Steelers, O/U of 47.5 (Steelers -6)
Browns
QB – Baker Mayfield wound up with a solid game last week but he was scuffling early. If I felt better about the ceiling, I might be willing to take a shot but that ceiling is really in question. He’ll be down Joel Bonito, one of his offensive lineman in this one and head coach Kevin Stefanski due to Covid. The Steelers defense is missing corner Joe Haden, but they welcome back all the over stars that sat out last week. Baker doesn’t look like he’s anything special by the stats. He finished the year with a 0.45 pDB, 18th in the league to go with the 18th most passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Pittsburgh ended the season first in DVOA against the pass and had a 22:18 TD:INT ratio. Only the Dolphins had fewer touchdowns allowed with the same interceptions. Out of the bottom rung options, I have them ranked Brees/Baker/Trubisky.
RB – Nick Chubb missed the first game against the Steelers but he tried to make up for it with 108 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on just four carries. Pittsburgh looks tough with a fifth-ranked DVOA against the run but I’m not sure that’s totally reality. They allowed over 110 rushing yards per game (11th best) but have been gouged for 154 per contest over the past three weeks. They are vulnerable on the ground with all their missing linebackers. Chubb doesn’t have the target share that we prefer in this price range at just 5.2% but he’s been doing just fine without it. If you fade Henry, playing a duo including Dobbins and Chubb could be a somewhat unique combo. Kareem Hunt is really not the player we want on this slate. There’s too many backs that could get 20+ touches to go after one that has 10-12 touches in their future.
WR – I may not be in love with Baker, but I think a least one of the receivers is going to have a big day. Jarvis Landry is still way too cheap for his role, flirting with a nearly 30% target share since the Odell Beckham injury. Landry is running the majority from the slot, which would leave him on Mike Hilton for a lot of the game. Hilton has been solid over 52 targets with just a 59.6% catch rate allowed and a 1.60 pPT. However, Jarvis under $6,000 doesn’t make much sense.
A player I really want to have in some GPP’s is Rashard Higgins. With Haden out, that opens up a lot on the boundary. Perhaps the Steelers have Steven Nelson shadow him, but I’m not sure I’d make that bet. Even if they do, Nelson has allowed a 13.6 YPR and a 1.90 pPT. Higgins is going to have some opportunity here and that secondary has shown some issues. Since OBJ has been down, Higgins has a 30.7% air yards share, tops on the team.
TE – I can never really decide on Austin Hooper. Every time I’ve kind of liked him this year, it hasn’t worked out. It’s not a sparkling matchup either as the Steelers tied for the fewest touchdowns allowed to the position. Hooper does have an 18.5% target share since OBJ has been hurt but the 6.9 aDOT isn’t exciting. I think he’s fine, but I’m not going out of my way to play him.
D/ST – They can be worth a punt, depending how you feel about the Steelers offense. They jumped to life playing the Colts and maybe that’s all they needed to wake up. However, Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in the past few weeks. Cleveland does boast Myles Garrett and 38 sacks on the year to go with 21 turnovers. I lean towards not playing them, since their secondary can sabotage things.
Cash – Chubb, Landry
GPP – Baker, Higgins, Hooper, D/ST
Steelers
QB – It seemingly took forever, but we got a ceiling game from Ben Roethlisberger the last time out, with 28.5 DK against the Colts. Cleveland finished the season ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass, while giving up the 12th most passing yards and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns at 30. Is Ben a risky play? Yes, but he’s really got upside to tap into this game. The Steelers have no running game to speak of at all, finishing 28th in attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. I’m hard pressed to think why Big Ben won’t throw 40+ times here, and if the week off helped rest his arm he could be dangerous. Ben was only 22nd in pDB at 0.42 but still finished eighth in touchdowns in just 15 games.
RB – Those stats I just quoted about the Steelers run game? Yeah, doesn’t exactly make me want to go click on James Conner. He played 64% of the snaps and this is still mostly his backfield, it’s just not very good. Conner is might be a cheap way to get 12+ touches but it is an ugly route to take. He likely has to score to make it worth playing him even at $5,000. I will say that Cleveland finished 19th in DVOA against the run, so this isn’t the worst matchup he could have. The Steelers just haven’t given you much reason to believe he pays off.
WR – Give me all the Diontae Johnson. I mean, this isn’t news if you know me but just look at what he’s done in the last two games with Big Ben. Diontae was benched in the Buffalo game for drops in Week 14, and then responded with 16 receptions on 27 targets. TWENTY. SEVEN. In two games. Ben played terribly in the Bengals game and Diontae still managed 19.9 DK points. He led the team in targets at 144 and the target share was almost 23%. Best yet, Cleveland normally doesn’t use Denzel Ward to shadow so Diontae gets a lot of Terrance Mitchell. He was targeted 107 times and allowed a 105.0 passer rating.
Ward will see a lot of Chase Claypool, who has the highest aDOT on the team at 13.2 and no other starter is particularly close. Both Claypool and Johnson had air yard shares over 25%, but Claypool is going to be volatile just like he was all year. JuJu Smith-Schuster is always the forgotten man for me, because I’m just playing Diontae. JuJu finished with just 14 more PPR points on the season despite playing almost 200 more snaps. That’s over three games of action. Kevin Johnson plays the slot for Cleveland and has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and a 107.6 passer rating over 63 targets. If you want to double stack Ben, JuJu and Diontae are the players to go with in the receiving corps.
TE – Another way to get unique is playing Eric Ebron. He’s activated off the Covid list and had the second-most RZ targets on the season at 16. The 14.9% target share doesn’t look too shabby either and the pricing is really reasonable. Cleveland didn’t play well against the position, allowing 10 touchdowns and in the bottom six in receptions and yards allowed. If you’re living in the mid-range at tight end, Ebron is my first choice.
D/ST – The Steelers led the league in pressure rate, sacks, and finished second in turnovers forced. Mayfield wasn’t under pressure a lot at just 17.7% on the year, but Pittsburgh can still create havoc. The Browns also had just 16 giveaways, so Pittsburgh is only really a spend for me if I’m making no other sacrifices.
*Update* The Steelers welcome back inside linebacker Robert Spillane this week, a pretty significant boost to the run defense. I’m a little more comfortable going here now.
Cash – Diontae, Ebron
GPP – Ben, JuJu, Claypool, Conner, D/ST
Core Four
Lamar Jackson, Alvin Kamara, Dionte Johnson, Anthony Miller
Lamar and Kamara really speak for themselves at this point of the season. I think I may skip cash on this slate to fade Henry, so it’s a Ricky Bobby Slate – First or last. Diontae is Ben’s number one target in a must-win gameand I expect a big game from him tomorrow night. Miller is interesting. A potentially chalky Bears receiver is never going to be a sure thing. I LOVE moving up to Rashard Higgins where you can in GPP. It’s an $800 difference and people won’t jump that far. With no Joe Haden, I think Higgins gets a little loose tomorrow.
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