Adam Strangis NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 5
It’s looking like we have another week of NFL action that might be changed by Covid, so the slate should shrink a little bit. For now, the two games that could be off the slate aren’t included but absolutely will be if hey get played. As it stands, there’s a lot of work to do for games that we know are being played so let’s go to work on the NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 5!
Cardinals at Jets, O/U of 47 (Cardinals -7)
Cardinals
QB – One of the biggest questions for Kyler Murray is deciding how to weigh his past two weeks of production. The end scores look perfectly fine, over 24 DK points in both. However, it was kind of ugly getting there. He did save himself with three touchdown passes last week but threw for a whopping 133 yards. He did put forth his second-highest rushing output to help get there as well with 78 yards. I don’t believe Kyler is a bad play, but the salary is getting up to the elites. I may prefer to just spend a couple hundred higher and maybe feel just a hair safer. Of the five quarterbacks that are over $7,000, Murray might be my least favorite this week.
RB – I’m not falling for Kenyan Drake anymore. If he couldn’t get it done against the Panthers, I’m not taking him for just $300 less on this slate. I know that the GPP mindset should tell us to keep taking shots with him. The field will keep migrating away but you would have to think there’s got to be a game coming at some point. Drake does have 54 carrie which is inside the top 10 in the league. He leads the team in red zone rushes at an 8-4 ratio over Kyler and yet, Drake is under 10 DK point per game.
Chase Edmonds is not really helping Drake out. Edmonds is third on the team in targets with 11 and has left Drake with under a 5% target share. Only DeAndre Hopkins has more red zone targets and they are tied with one end zone target each. The Jets don’t appear to pose a threat defensively, as they have given up the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs. The five rushing touchdowns is tied for the third-most but the DVOA is seventh as far as rushing defense. A lot of the boxes check for Drake but I just don’t see how you can possibly have any confidence in clicking his name.
WR – When the QB has 133 yards passing, it’s going to be a tough scene for the pass catchers. Hopkins had what was easily his lowest scoring game of the season, despite still seeing nine targets. That marks the fourth straight week with at least nine targets so the volume remains virtually unrivaled. Nuk is third in targets behind only Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen. If he puts in a week of practice that doesn’t include his ankle hurting again, he’s likely too cheap. Guys like Tim Patrick got loose on the Jets secondary, they won’t stop Hopkins.
The other pieces of the Cardinals passing attack are a bit tougher. I will always have a soft spot for Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s totaled 88 receiving yards in four games playing 83.6% of the snaps. That’s just operating with a black hole sadly. Andy Isabella has already out-produced Fitzgerald in a much smaller role and that leaves him as too risky for fantasy as things stand. Fitzgerald has eaten up 18 targets to just nine for Isabella. Christian Kirk returned to the lineup and scored, but his floor is also frightening. Hopkins is the only one I’d play until the Cardinals #FreeIsabella.
TE – We can safely continue to not play Dan Arnold as the 7.9 DK points was his season-high water mark. He’s yet to exceed four targets or 39 yards receiving.
D/ST – The price is very high but it’s pretty much deserved at this point. Sam Darnold might miss this game with a shoulder injury and we’d have to expect rookie tackle Mekhi Becton to be out. The Jets (of course) mishandled the young man’s shoulder injury last week, making things worse in the process. The Cards aren’t a great defense but they are in double-digit sacks and the pressure rate against Darnold is over 25%. If Joe Flacco has to start, all the better.
Cash – Nuk, Kyler (safe but again, not where I’m heading in cash if paying up)
GPP – Drake, D/ST
Jets
QB – The status of Sam Darnold is really up in the air. If you’re the Jets, it truly makes little sense to try and push the player who is supposed to be your franchise QB. This team is going nowhere, and fast. We also saw how they treated Becton, so anything is on the table for Darnold. Arizona might only be 23rd in passing DVOA, but there are few redeeming factors for the Jets passing game. Darnold is 25th in passing yards, 18th in intended air yards and 23rd in on target rate. I’m not sure I would play Flacco if you spotted me my entry fees, so this is likely a pass for me.
*Update* Flacco is slated to start this game and Darnold is officially out.
RB – Just like the quarterback position, I’m not even giving his backfield the time of day. When Frank Gore has 55 (FIFTY. FIVE.) carries in an offense at this point, you have to ask what the plan is. He’s giving new meaning to the adage “three yards and a cloud of dust” and even with seven red zone attempts, I don’t have virtually any reason to play him. Arizona has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to backs but are 14th in run DVOA so we can leave Gore on the sidelines where he belongs. There’s a narrative that La’Mical Perine could see slightly more work now that the Kalen Ballage experiment is over, but you’d have to trust Adam Gase to be smart.
*Update* Le’Veon Bell is possibly set to come back for this game from the IR. That’s well and good and you can talk me into some GPP shares, but this offense is terrible with Darnold. Flacco doesn’t improve them in any tangible way.
WR – Jamison Crowder is the clear leader in this receiving corps and came back from injury to rack up 10 targets and over 100 yards Thursday night. Since it looks like he came out of that game healthy, this is a solid spot for him, although I would prefer Darnold to play. Crowder lives in the slot so he won’t have to deal with Patrick Peterson. Instead, he’ll mostly see Byron Murphy. Murphy has been solid so far, only allowing 12 receptions on 26 targets for a 1.20 fantasy point per target, but I still like Crowder. The volume is just hard to pass up since he’s averaging almost 12 targets a game.
It appears that Breshad Perriman could be back and it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He’s no played a full two games and he’s only seen seven targets total. I could see Flacco liking him a lot as a deeper target, but wouldn’t want to take too many chances with this offense as a whole.
*Update* Perriman is now doubtful and Jeff Smith is another GPP play at minimum price. He saw nine targets last week against Denver and played 95% of the snaps. Obviously, the QB isn’t the greatest but we don’t need a lot at $3,000.
TE – Chris Herndon is seeing just about five targets a game but he hasn’t exceeded 37 yards and has just one red zone target all season. He blocks far more than is useful for fantasy, and the Cards have been better this season against the position. They only have given up 187 yards and two scores so far, which is pretty massive progress from last year. There’s plenty of other options this week.
D/ST – The Jets get a bad rap on all fronts, and plenty of it is deserved. They do stand 10th in defensive DVOA which really isn’t bad. The issues are it hasn’t totally shown up on the field. With only six sacks, it’s hard to think they get to Kyler a lot with a 8% hurry rate. They do have four picks, but most of them came from Brett Rypien on a short week. I can’t find a route where they’d be worth the gamble.
Cash – None
GPP – Crowder if Flacco plays, Smith, Bell
Panthers at Falcons, O/U of 54.5 (Falcons -1.5)
Panthers
QB – If you decide to spend down at QB this week, Teddy Bridgewater has to be among the prime candidates. He’s rolling with a 73% completion rate and over 286 yards per game, which is not too shabby. The TD:INT ratio is really what is holding the scoring back, since it’s only 4:3. Atlanta is beyond banged up in the secondary and rank 31st in passing DVOA. Bridgewater is sixth in on target rate which helps mitigate being 21st in intended air yards. As of now, Bridgewater seems like a great cash play at quarterback since the Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards to date with 13 touchdown passes.
RB – It still appears like it’s mostly the Mike Davis show, but Reggie Bonnafon started to bite into his share just a bit this past week. Davis is at his season high in salary and over $6,000 for the first time but he’s still right around a potential 3x return. He’s exceeded 22 DK in both games as the full-time starter and even with Bonnafon getting some touches, he went over 20 touches for the second straight game. I have no qualms playing him in any format and he may even wind up as a Core Four play.
Bonnafon is slightly interesting since he’s barely above RB-minimum this week. He did only play a bit over a quarter of the snaps, but also racked up 12 touches. I wonder if this was game script or just the fact that Davis isn’t used to such a heavy workload. If it’s the latter and he’s actually going to get 8-10 touches, he could be worth a GPP shot but nothing more. Atlanta is the 12th best rushing defense in DVOA.
*Update* Bonnafon suffered a high-ankle sprain and won’t be on the active roster for at least three weeks. That really bumps up the outlook for Davis who already looked very solid.
WR – The trend of Robby Anderson being cheaper than DJ Moore continues after yet another dud from Moore. Anderson actually has two more targets than Moore and has been fairly consistent so far. In three of the four weeks, Anderson has gone over 17 DK points and continues to be sub-$6,000. It’s like Adam Gase has no clue what he’s doing with offensive players or something. With all the injuries to the Falcons secondary, Anderson is one of the better receiver plays on the board to my eyes.
Moore is still an air yards darling and he should break out at some point. It seems to be forgotten that Moore went for 20 DK in Week 2 and has still yet to score. He gets the same putrid Atlanta secondary and faces Isaiah Oliver, who is giving up 2.10 points per target. The GPP appeal is there but I do prefer Anderson.
TE – I don’t believe that the five targets for Ian Thomas this past week is anything but an anomaly. He had four all season coming into this game and there’s no reason to suspect his role is changing. Even with a touchdown, he scored 8.5 DK. That’s not something we want to chase.
D/ST – The Panthers aren’t even averaging a sack per game, although they do have seven turnovers forced. Five of them are fumbles and that doesn’t seem super sustainable. I don’t have interest since they can’t get any type of pressure on the quarterback.
Cash – Davis, Anderson, Bridgewater
GPP – Moore
Falcons
QB – It was a really rough game for Matt Ryan and the Falcons Monday night but it gets easier coming home to the Panthers. Ryan has excelled against two poor defenses so far but has struggled against some better ones. Carolina is 26th in passing DVOA and so they qualify as a bad one, even though in fairness they haven’t given up over 1,000 yards passing yet. Their schedule has been uneven so far and maybe the passing yards given up isn’t the best measure.
Ryan is only 21st in on target rate so far this year but he does rank first in intended air yards, so there is a trade-off there. Only two quarterbacks have had more attempts so far and Atlanta is playing at the second-fastest pace in the league right now. Even potentially without his top receiver, Ryan feels just far too cheap here.
RB – If there’s ever a time to play Todd Gurley, this is the week. The Panthers are 25th in run DVOA, are tied for the most rushing touchdowns given up and are giving up nearly 100 yards per game. Gurley leads the league in red zone attempts since Derrick Henry hasn’t played his fourth game yet and Gurley is under $6,000. He’s a player that I almost never go after and if the Panthers go up on the Falcons, he could get game-scripted out. Both Brian Hill and Ito Smith have matched his targets so far. Gurley isn’t what he used to be but he does have multi-touchdown upside in this game.
WR – Even with his salary, I won’t have one lineup with Julio Jones in it. I frankly don’t think he plays period but even if he does, he clearly can’t make it through a game and is not worth the risk.
That leaves Calvin Ridley as the lead dog and he’s priced as such, the WR2 on the slate even though he’s coming off a goose egg on Monday Night Football. It’s projected that Ridley would see Rasul Douglas who is allowing a 75% catch rate and a 1.40 points per target. I’m not convinced I need to spend this type of salary when Hopkins is right there and has safer volume. Ridley does have eight red zone and end zone looks, so the scoring upside is huge. We can also look at Olamide Zaccheaus, who racked up nine targets Monday. That does represent the majority of his 16 targets but if Carolina is focused on Ridley and even Russell Gage, Zaccheaus has value a minimum price. Gage has seen a significant downturn in his target rate so I’d rather just save the $2,100 if not playing Ridley.
*Update* Jones remains questionable but didn’t practice all week. Carolina’s secondary is now also down corner Eli Apple, which certainly doesn’t help matters. If Julio sits, I think Zaccheaus could slide into cash considerations.
TE – Hayden Hurst is another tight end that likely needs a score to truly pay off his salary. It’s true that he might not have Julio in the lineup and that’s 12.2% of the targets opening up, but he’s not my favorite. He’s averaging about five targets per game which isn’t bad but the red zone work isn’t there. He only has two targets and one end zone look. He’s a fine option even with the Panthers only allowing 150 yards and a score so far.
D/ST – Certainly not, especially at $3,000.
Cash – Ryan, maybe Gurley
GPP – Ridley, Zaccheaus, Gage, Hurst
Rams at Washington, O/U of 45 (Rams -7.5)
Rams
QB – It was a pretty disappointing day for Jared Goff and the Rams on Sunday. Sure, they won but they also struggled mightily to put the lowly Giants away. Goff won’t even be inside the top 20 of passing attempts by the end of the Week 4 and that’s kind of an issue for a QB at this salary. Goff offers nothing on the ground although he oddly has 16 “attempts”. The positives for Goff are the completion rate over 72% and a 6:2 TD:INT ratio. The 265 passing yards per game are fine, but nothing special. Washington is actually a top-eight team in passing yards allowed, which isn’t exactly what I thought we’d see at this juncture of the year.
A big part of the reason they rank poorly against the QB for DK points is the third-most rushing yards allowed to the position. This is where it has to be noted that they’ve already faced Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, who have rushed for a combined 500 yards already. I won’t be using Goff this week myself as I don’t think this game stays close enough to make him worth the salary.
RB – Sean McVay…you fickle man. It really seemed like we had a bead on the running back usage with Darrell Henderson and then Sunday happened. He only played 22 snaps while Malcolm Brown got a better chunk of the work and that has to scare you for this week. Heading into Week 4, Henderson had spent the past two games out-touching Brown 35-20.
Brown was the man in the backfield in Week 4 and there’s no reason that we know of that it happened. It would be one thing if Brown was ripping it up, I would understand the coach riding the hot hand. Brown got 14 touches and racked up *checks notes* 56 yards. I’m not a head coach in the NFL but that’s just baffling to me. Washington is right in the middle of the league when it comes to rushing yards allowed to the running backs, so I’m not being subject to the whims of McVay this week with no discount on either back. To make matters even worse, Cam Akers should be back his week. We hate three headed monsters and this is going to be one that is unpredictable mid-game.
WR – It certainly wasn’t a banner day for the receivers, although Cooper Kupp did break off a 55 yard score that was the back breaker in the fourth quarter. Both he and Robert Woods saw seven targets a piece but Woods only had 35 yards. Kupp is averaging over 74 yards a game but if he hadn’t got loose for the 55 yards scamper, it was going to be a floor day for Kupp as well. We’re looking more towards the individual matchups even though both guys move around the formation a good deal. Salary also doesn’t help since Kupp is just $100 more.
Kupp will square off with mostly Jimmy Moreland, who is allowing 1.60 points per target on 24 targets. Woods will get a good dose of Ronald Darby who is at a 1.70 mark but allows 19.8 yards per reception. Washington is a shocking third in passing DVOA but I still think the Rams receivers get the better of this spot. I will slightly prefer Woods since Darby is typically a player we target heavily.
TE – We talked last week about how few routes Tyler Higbee was actually running and three out of four weeks, i’s really shown through. Week 4 was already the third time that Higbee has been no higher than eight DK points. The only game he did anything of note was a three touchdown performance against the Eagles (they might have some issues against the position). In the three poor games, Higbee has a grand total of 10 targets. He’s just too expensive in my eyes when you have your choice of the elite tier for around $1,000 more. The only option more expensive than Higbee that I wouldn’t play over him is Zach Ertz.
D/ST – The Rams defense is one of the most expensive options on the slate and they should be. This is another spot where they should thrive with Washington already giving up the fourth-most sacks. That’s tied for the fourth most and additionally, Washington is tied for second in giveaways with eight. LA is holding teams to just 20 points per game and have been about the only unit to give the Dallas offense issues.
Cash – D/ST, Kupp, Woods
GPP – Goff
Washington
QB – It sort of figures that Dwayne Haskins put up his best fantasy performance of the season against the Ravens defense. He may not have thrown a touchdown, but he did rush one and he didn’t turn over the football. It was the first time all season his completion rate has been over 57.6% and exceeded 224 yards. To say we might want to be cautious here is a bit of an understatement. A quarterback scoring the 12-13 points Haskins had the other three weeks really kind of dooms your squad, so Haskins is nothing more than an MME option and a dicey one at that. LA has only given up five touchdown passes to four interceptions while ranking seventh in passing DVOA.
Update – Kyle Allen will start and he was a nightmare last season. he production for Gibson and McLaurin shouldn’t take a huge hit (see D.J. Moore and CMC in 2019) but the Rams defense looks to be the best on the slate now.
RB – The Antonio Gibson train keeps picking up steam and his DK point total has gone up every single week. Gibson matched his high water mark in carries with 13 and set a new best with five targets. His explosiveness showed a little on a 40 yard reception but the main story is the workload. If he becomes a player who gets 15 touches or more every game, $5,000 is just way too cheap. What we really like is three of his five targets came lined up as a receiver and Washington is catching on to the fact that Gibson is clearly the best option in their backfield. J.D McKissic is going to get snaps and be somewhat involved (he had eight targets on Sunday). He just won’t offer a ton of production on the ground and Gibson is the more gifted player. The Rams are allowing just about 100 yards per game on the ground and the ninth-most receiving yards on 29 targets.
WR – It’s the Terry McLaurin show in this receiving corps and his price just really hasn’t moved all season so far. $6,100 is the most expensive he’s been but that’s not enough for a receiver that is averaging nearly 10 targets and nearly 100 yards per game. McLaurin has had some tough matchups and has still come through it producing about every week. He just got Baltimore for 118 yards on 10 receptions. He’s going to see Jalen Ramsey on the other side and that might have folks skip McLaurin altogether. Ramsey has allowed 1.40 points per target on 27 targets and 10 yards per reception. He’s of course a great corner, but McLaurin checks in as a really good GPP option for me. Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims are both under a 15% target share and I’m not likely to go after either.
*Update* Sims is now on IR, which concentrates the targets even further.
TE – I’m not falling for the Logan Thomas play any more. Most of his metrics are super favorable, such as targets, air yards and routes run on drop backs by Haskins. That’s all well and good but he’s turned that into a season line of 13/102/1 which just isn’t good enough. This past week he wasn’t even targeted that heavily with just four. LA has allowed three scores to the position but only 165 yards receiving through four games, so it’s not even that special of a matchup to try and get right.
D/ST – With Jared Goff only being sacked six times, this might not be the exact matchup to exploit. Washington is down Chase Young and other than Week 1, haven’t been getting to the quarterback consistently. They only have six sacks the past three weeks and have seen their price come up $500 after last week. I likely don’t take this route in Week 5.
*Update* Young is questionable, and even if he’s active for just partial snaps, I don’t mind the Washington defense at salary with their front.
Cash – McLaurin, Gibson
GPP – Allen
Eagles at Steelers, O/U of 44.5 (Steelers -7.5)
Eagles
QB – Carson Wentz emerged from the West Coast with a victory, but I can’t say I’m jonesing to play him. He’s still on the grisly side of a 4:7 TD:INT ratio and that’s not a safe bet to improve against a rested Steelers squad. Now, Wentz doesn’t have to face the Steelers after a typical bye week. They had spent the week planning to play the Titans, so there’s not a lot of extra prep work. It’s still a lot to ask for Wentz to have a good game here with a rag-tag group of weapons.
Wentz is 26th in on target rate, which is fairly brutal at this point of the season. Sure, the cast around him hasn’t helped a ton but Wentz should be better. He’s 20th in passing yards despite being fourth in intended air yards and you have to wonder if he has time to air it out in this one. He’s being pressured over 21% of the time and is tied for third in sacks. Pittsburgh leads in pressure rate and blitzes over half the time.
RB – It’s a fair price for Miles Sanders, but the matchup is about as tough as it gets. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards at 121 than the Steelers, and they have a 10 yard lead on Tampa Bay for the per game lead at 54 yards rushing. Sanders does have five targets per game but I’m not convinced that I want to pay this much for receiving work. Even that hasn’t been a weakness for the Steelers with just 12 receptions and one score allowed. Only getting 15 touches Sunday night was a hair alarming, in honesty. The Eagles were down Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery has yet to play. Sanders gets 15 touches when they desperately needed offense? I’ll pass on Sanders here.
WR – DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor remain out. Not to skip over any spot too much, but I can’t get behind a Greg Ward play in the least. Even with seven targets last week, he generated 7.8 DK points. Even in his range, there’s better situations to attack.
TE – Maybe this is just me, but Ertz looked incredibly poor on Sunday night. He seemed very slow and had no explosion whatsoever. I didn’t really think it was possible to have nine yards on five targets/four receptions. The 2.3 yards per catch is fire though, let me tell you. Ertz does have 29 targets which is excellent volume but the 139 yards receiving is not ideal. He’s also only found pay dirt just once, which hurts any type of ceiling for Ertz as well. He’s getting an 18.9% target share and somehow has 18.5% of the air yards but only two red zone targets through four games. Any of the four options ahead of him in salary are better options, even with the added expense.
D/ST – I actually don’t mind the Eagles defense to some extent. They absolutely have their flaws in the secondary and elsewhere, but they are getting home to the quarterback. Philly is averaging over four sacks a game and the jury is still out as far as how good the Steelers are. The combined record of the three teams they’ve beat is 1-11, with the lone win coming against the Jets.
Cash – None
GPP – D/ST
Steelers
QB – Pittsburgh is back in action after their impromptu bye week and we’re still looking for the first really big game from Ben Roethlisberger this year. He’s been pretty good, with a 7:1 TD:INT ratio thus far but we haven’t got the massive game that has been a trademark of his seasons recently. Part of last game’s mediocre production was losing his favorite target Diontae Johnson to a concussion fairly early in the game.
The good news is Big Ben has been really on target so far, with an 81.3% rate. He’s still outside the top 20 for intended air yards but it still feels like just a matter of time before things start clicking at a higher level. The Eagles are the ninth-best as far as DK points but also have allowed the ninth-most passing yards and are 16th in passing DVOA. They’ve allowed virtually nothing on the ground but you won’t need that from Roethlisberger. He’s a fine play in any format this week.
RB – The last time we saw the Steelers, they were acting like a total oddball team. Typically, Coach Mike Tomlin runs one back and when he’s been healthy, that’s been James Conner. While he did rack up 22 ouches for 149 yards and a score, both Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland were both involved with seven and six carries. That’s not enough to really worry us about Conner, who is still pretty underpriced with the volume he gets.
In his last two games, he’s averaging 20 touches per and Philly has been their usual tough self against backs. They just miss being top 10 in DK points given up and the front four is the strength of that defense. They can be a little vulnerable to the passing game with 18 receptions for 188 yards so Conner checks in as a volume-based option coming out of the bye. I don’t think we’re at the point where we have to worry about Snell or McFarland quite yet.
WR – Considering he was hurt the last time he played, Johnson is still really underpriced if he’s active. When we were heading into Week 3, he had an outlandish target share that was inside the top five in the NFL. Even after missing over half a game, he still leads the team in targets with 25 and is the only player with over 20% of the air yards (27.9%). Johnson should draw Darius Slay who has been stout so far. He’s allowing just 1.20 fantasy points per target on 26 targets through four gams thus far.
About the only metric JuJu Smith-Schuster holds the lead on Johnson is yards by a bit and touchdowns, with three. Otherwise, it’s been fairly pedestrian for JuJu. You would’ve though that JuJu was in line for a big game with the early exit to Johnson, but you’d be wrong. He only had four receptions for 43 yards and was only targeted five times. Rookie Chase Claypool led the team in snaps in Week 3 and drew four targets himself. The end result wasn’t great but his aDOT is 14.7, easily the best on the team. He’s still worth taking some GPP shots in hopes of the big play, and Roethlisberger really seems to like him. I just wouldn’t expect over 70% of the snaps again.
TE – I’m torn here on Eric Ebron. I don’t really trust him, but his targets have increased in each game. With Johnson out, Ebron drew seven targets and turned them into 5/52/1 on the game. Philly have been ripped apart by the position, allowing five scores already and the fourth-most yards. If I knew that Ebron would be as involved as last week, he’s be a smash play. Ebron is only at fourth in targets on his own team and has all of one red zone target. He’s a fine play if you’re not spending up, but let’s see how the other options shake out.
D/ST – Of the higher end defenses, I do like Pittsburgh. They lead the league in pressure rate and Wentz has been brought down 14 times, tied for third-most in the league. Pittsburgh already has 15 sacks and five takeaways. They aren’t cheap but they shouldn’t be.
Cash – Ben, Conner, D/ST, Ebron
GPP – JuJu, Johnson, Claypool
Bengals at Ravens, O/U of 51 (Ravens -12)
Bengals
QB – Even in a game that the Bengals won, Joe Burrow still threw the ball 36 times and he continues to be among the leaders in attempts in the NFL. Only Dak Prescott has more attempts on the year and we have to love the volume that Burrow has going for him right now. Even better is he also sits second in red zone attempts, so the touchdown equity remains very high. This would project to be a game that the Bengals should trail and Burrow should see 40+ attempts. A significant chunk was from getting rolled by Patrick Mahomes but the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league so far. Even the DVOA isn’t spectacular at just 14th. If Haskins can do it, Burrow should be on our radar despite the matchup.
RB – It took three weeks, but Joe Mixon has joined the 2020 season. Mixon did practically but we kept saying the volume and the pace of the Bengals defense would eventually come through. It did this past week, even though Mixon cropped up on the injury report on Saturday, typically a red flag. I certainly backed off and that didn’t end well for anyone. We kept pounding the fact that the Bengals offense was a top-five unit in pace and it finally paid off. It does need to be said that the Ravens are nasty to opposing running backs. They are third in DVOA, eighth in DK points allowed and rushing yards allowed. Mixon is third in rushing attempts with an 8.8% target share. He’s a volume play, but there is some floor here.
WR – This is going to be a fun matchup to watch. Tyler Boyd leads the team in targets with 34 and he’s taken over for A.J. Green. Boyd is still very fairly priced but he does have a tough matchup individually. Ravens slot corner Marlon Humphrey is a rich man now but his production hasn’t been shutdown. He’s been targeted 31 times and has allowed 21 receptions for 1.60 points per target. That’s not enough to stop me from using Boyd.
The player that might have his hands full is Tee Higgins. The rookie would see either Marcus Peters or Jimmy Smith, neither of who should have issues with Higgins. I’m not sure how Baltimore will handle Green, so the matchup is certainly not set in stone. I might just be on Boyd here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw 10 targets or more if Green and Higgins are scuffling.
TE – Oh sure, NOW Drew Sample gets some targets after I don’t play him. He is the red zone leader as far as targets on the Bengals and I wonder if it’s the same scenario for Boyd. If Green and Higgins are getting taken out of the game, Boyd and Sample could see extra work. Even Mixon should continue to get fed targets. Baltimore hasn’t been great to tight ends, with 243 yards (10th most) and two scores already. Sample is a fine option under $4,000 but you only have to rewind one week to see the potential floor.
D/ST – I tried to go against the Ravens offense last week and it didn’t work out all that well. Lamar Jackson is in the top 12 for pressure rate and has been brought down 11 times, but the Bengals have the fourth-lowest pressure rate of any team in football. We can find different cheap defenses.
Cash – Mixon, Boyd
GPP – Burrow, Sample, Higgins
Ravens
QB – It’s a rare slate where Jackson is under $8,000 anymore so he technically is a small bargain. He finally had a rushing touchdown last week and is back in the top two in rushing yards for quarterbacks. Jackson has been a little more inconsistent than last year. Two games have been over 26 DK and two games have been under 18 DK. He’s only 16th in on target rate and the volume is still quite low as he sits 28th in attempts. The Ravens didn’t pass much last year but Jackson did more on the ground last year as well. Cincinnati has already allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to the position (94 overall) so Jackson is a fine play in every format.
*Update* Jackson has yet to practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but it’s reported there’s no fear of him missing yet.
*Update Two* Jackson is ready to roll as expected.
RB – It’s still a miserable split in the Ravens backfield. Last week saw Mark Ingram with eight carries, Gus Edwards with nine and J.K. Dobbins with five. On the season, Ingram leads with 34 total and Dobbins is last with 15. There’s not enough meat on the bone for any back to stand out, especially when Jackson is in the mix. Baltimore ranks eighth in rushing attempts per game on the year, but until something changes in this backfield they are an easy fade in my eyes. The real shame is the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards though they are 10th in DVOA. It won’t surprise me if someone has a good game but goodness knows who it is.
WR/TE – I’m lumping the two positions together because of how the Ravens are structured. Yes, Miles Boykin is third in targets but isn’t even averaging four per game and the air yards share is under 14%. The passing game mostly starts and ends with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Brown owns the air yards lead at a massive 44.5% share in the offense and the target lead at 26. He’s going to see a good deal of William Jackson, who has allowed a 2.00 points per target rate and 12.6 yards per reception on 25 targets. He can’t be trusted in cash but he’s always squarely in the GPP conversation, although he’s a bit pricey.
Andrews is the man once the team enters the red zone, with four targets there and five end zone targets. The latter number is tied for third across the entire league, so it’s hard to say the touchdown equity isn’t massive for him. The Bengals have yet to allow a score to the position but they have allowed the eighth-most yards. I’m betting that after Sunday, Cincy has allowed a score to the tight ends.
*Update* There’s a lot of questionable tags on the Ravens offense, but there’s no reason to be worried at this point.
D/ST – With Joe Burrow being second in sacks already, the Ravens deserve their lofty price tag. Baltimore has just nine sacks so far but 19 hurries, tied for the seventh-most. Burrow hasn’t been a turnover factory so I would prefer the Steelers at $100 cheaper.
Cash – Jackson, Andrews
GPP – Brown, D/ST
Jaguars at Texans, O/U of 54 (Texans -6)
Jaguars
QB – The Mustache continued his great play for fantasy last Sunday, throwing two scores and for over 351 yards for right about 25 DK points. Houston is just 19th in passing DVOA and are a team in chaos right now, so this is a good spot for Minshew to attack. The Texans don’t have an interception yet although they have only allowed 912 passing yards. That’s just the seventh-fewest in the league but I don’t think this is a defense we need to fear.
Minshew is fifth across the league in on target rate and just outside the top 12 in intended air yards. That’s a really nice mix for fantasy production, especially when he’s ninth in attempts as well. Minshew is tied for sixth in touchdown passes and has upside past his price tag this week.
RB – James Robinson is certainly not Dalvin Cook, but he does get the same matchup and might well have a monster game himself here. He is at a season-high price but it’s tough to say it’s not warranted. He logged the most carries of his career last week with 17 and added in four receptions. Robinson is 12th in carries in the NFL, has 68.9% of the rushing attempts on the team and a 10.6% target share to boot. Houston has been smashed on the ground so far, leading the league at 651 yards to backs allowed and dead last at 181 rushing yards per game allowed. Robinson will be in the running for a Core Play spot for me.
WR – Welcome back D.J. Chark. He went bonkers on Sunday after missing the last game for the Jags, scoring twice and flirting with 30 DK points. He projects to face Bradley Roby who doesn’t look intimidating. Roby has allowed nearly a 70% catch rate, 2.00 points per target and a 121.5 passer rating. With Chark owning over 20% of the air yards even with a game missed, he’s a good play at the salary especially if they keep feeding him the ball.
The secondary receivers are really just a grab bag. Laviska Shenault saw six targets last week and produced what was easily a career-high 86 yards. He projects to face Vernon Hargreaves which isn’t anything that stops me from using him. Hargreaves is giving up a 1.90 points per target and 11.9 yards per reception. Keelan Cole and Chris Conley aren’t getting enough consistent work to really get behind.
TE – It continues to be a “TD or bust” season for Tyler Eifert. In the one game he’s scored, he was worth playing and in the three he hasn’t, he’s yet to crack 4.5 DK points. He does lead the team in red zone targets with five and is tied for the team lead in end zone targets but only has eight total receptions so far. That’s 32nd in the league. Houston is 16th in DK points given up to tight ends, which is impressive since they’ve faced off against Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.
D/ST – The Texans do lead the league in sacks allowed and he’s the most pressured starter, so there would be some potential if the Jaguars had a pass rush. Maybe they deserve a bit more credit than I’m giving them with a 23.2% pressure rate but they only have four sacks and 13 hurries. If they were $2,200 or something, maybe but the price is too high for me.
*Update* The Jaguars have Josh Allen, Myles Jack, C.J. Henderson and Daniel Ekuale all questionable on defense. Yikes.
Cash – Robinson, Chark, Minshew
GPP – Shenault
Texans
QB – This is going to be a tough team to measure up this week. They have a new coach in Romeo Crennel, after mercifully firing Bill O’Brien. Deshaun Watson is 20th in passing attempts, which frankly is ridiculous and should have been enough to get O’Brien fired. To Watson’s credit, he is 12th in passing yards despite the mediocre attempts and is ninth in intended air yards. It really hurts that he’s only at 14 red zone attempts and only has five completions. That latter number is 30th in the league which is just brutal. I’m really torn here. I’d love to believe Crennel turns Watson loose and if he does, there’s plenty of value with the Jags being a bottom 10 team to the position. This isn’t a slam dunk pick at his price, however.
RB – Much like Watson, I don’t know what the plan is for David Johnson. It’s hard not to like him at his price, considering he has 63.8% of the team’s carries and 11.4% of the targets. We all watched Joe Mixon rip this defense to shreds and even though the talent gap is fairly wide, Johnson is cheap. Jacksonville is already 11th in rushing yards allowed and they’ve allowed four rushing scores. They are also the sixth-worst team against the position, so the opportunity is there. If Crennel thinks like O’Brien and wants to feed him the rock, DJ could have a flashback game with over 100 total yards and a score. Duke Johnson is really not the worst salary saver if he’s going to flirt with double-digit touches, but he is nothing more than a risky GPP option.
WR – Rookie C.J Henderson has been solid for the Jaguars, only allowing 154 yards so far on 23 targets. He can stick with Will Fuller from a speed perspective with a 4.39 40-yard dash but I still like Fuller here. He owns just over 25% of the air yards and barely has the target lead on the team. Fuller almost had a double-touchdown day last week and he has established chemistry with Watson. Outside of the weird/maybe injured Week 2, Fuller has recorded a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in all the other games this year.
I certainly wouldn’t trust him in cash (as about a quarter of the field learned on Sunday) but this isn’t the worst bounce back spot for Brandin Cooks. He projects to match against Tre Herndon, who hasn’t been that great so far for the Jags. He hasn’t been targeted a ton at just 12 but he’s giving up a 75% catch rate and 10.3 yards per reception. Cooks only has one fewer target than Fuller and a handful fewer air yards.
TE – I don’t particularly understand the pricing with Jordan Akins and Darren Fells. Akins has the lead in targets by five, air yards by 18 and the end zone targets are the same. The former has also been more consistent with a 9.2 DK average to 4.6 for Fells, and the price for Akins is cheaper. Jacksonville has already allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends and three scores. Akins is long the favorites if spending down at the position.
D/ST – It’s Week 5 and the Texans don’t have a turnover. That has to change eventually, but with the defensive coordinator now stepping into the head coaching role it doesn’t give me much confidence. Houston does have 10 sacks and an average pressure rate and Minshew has been brought down 13 times but this isn’t a play for me.
Cash – Fuller, DJ is really close, Akins
GPP – Watson, Cooks, Duke Johnson
Raiders at Chiefs, O/U of 56 (Chiefs -12)
Radiers
QB – I’m about to say something weird and that’s I’m actually thinking about playing Derek Carr. Now, when I say consider it, it’s within a game stack and GPP only. The Chiefs are the number one passing defense in DVOA and they have Carr’s number over the years, holding him to a 59% completion rate and a 15:13 TD:INT ratio. That’s over the course of 12 games as well, so this isn’t just a small sample size. Still, Carr has been playing well this year and it should be recognized. He does have four fumbles but he’s still yet to throw a pick and he’s averaging two touchdowns per game. There’s value there in what should be a negative game script and at his price.
Carr ranks second in on target rate, which is a good thing because he’s only 22nd in intended air yards. Only Russell Wilson has a higher completion rate and Carr is outside the top 10 in yards by 26 yards. I’ve certainly taken my share of shots at Carr, but I don’t mind him here at all at this price. Just understand the Chiefs are only fifth in passing yards allowed to go along with the DVOA.
RB – Perhaps one spot that the Chiefs could be vulnerable is on the ground. They rank 27th in DVOA there and have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards. They’re only mid-pack as far as DK points allowed because running backs have only scored one touchdown, despite the eighth-most receiving yards as well. Enter a very low-priced Josh Jacobs, who had 18 touches even in a lopsided loss. The score wasn’t really indicative of how the Bills controlled the game last week. Jacobs has the carry lead in the NFL (because Derrick Henry hasn’t played the same amount of games yet) and he’s 13th in receptions. There’s no real reason for Jacobs to be this low in salary and he has my attention in all formats.
WR – The receiving corps is still a mess here. Bryan Edwards did not practice Wednesday, so the week already isn’t starting out well for him. Henry Ruggs was limited so there’s a least a glimmer that he could be back this week. Otherwise, it’s Hunter Renfrow and Nelson Agholor as the main targets. The Chiefs have been quite stingy to opposing receivers, ranking second in DK points given up. Considering the rank for passing defense in DVOA, that makes some sense. I’d have some interest in Ruggs if he manages to come back as a deep GPP option, but this corps is pretty much an easy pass for me. Even in garbage time, there leading receiver is at the next position.
*Update* Ruggs look like he may be able to suit up for this game.
TE – When you have the leader among tight ends in targets at under $6,000, you have to give him some heavy consideration. Darren Waller is up by every other tight end by at least seven targets and owns over 29% of the target share for the Raiders. He even has over 24% of the air yards, so it’s pretty clear who the number one option is in this offense. The Chiefs haven’t given up much production to tight ends yet, but that number should be worse is Mark Andrews could have caught a football in the Monday Night game. There could definitely be some garbage time production here if nothing else.
D/ST – Ha. Not a chance. They have all of four sacks, two turnovers and the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the league.
Cash – Waller
GPP – Jacobs, Carr, Ruggs, Renfrow
Chiefs
QB – The only real question about playing Patrick Mahomes is if he can have a true ceiling game against this team. He’s already eighth in passing yards despite not facing much of a challenge outside of one game yet. It’s a little odd to see him just 15th in intended air yards but it’s not that big of an aspect to get hung up on. The completion rate is over 67% and he’s yet to have a turnover while accounting for 12 total touchdowns. There’s no reason to not play him in any format you like.
RB – The price still isn’t high enough for Clyde Edwards-Helaire for this game. He’s fifth in carries for running backs and seventh in targets at the position. CEH is averaging over 18 DK points and he’s only scored once in four games. Only six backs have more red zone attempts and he does have two red zone targets. The snap percentage is over 67% and he’s racked up 63.4% of the carries for the Chiefs. The volume is stellar and by the way, the Raiders have allowed the most DK points to running backs this year. They are tied for the most rushing touchdowns, they have given up the third-most receptions and the second-most yards. This couldn’t be a better spot for him and I’m pretty sure he’s going to be in the Core Four.
WR – I’m not sure just how much the individual matchups matter here. For instance, Tyreek Hill has played 33% of his snaps in the slot. Sammy Watkins is at 30.7% and Mecole Hardman is at 47.5%. The point in highlighting that is Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy and the Chiefs move their receivers all over. Watkins and Hill are virtually tied for second in targets, but Hill has a 34.5% share of the air yards to just 18.2% for Watkins. It’s clear what the roles are for each player and you always have the chance of Hill taking a carry to the house. Hardman is still playing right around 50% of the snaps so he’s only a GPP option. Watkins is an especially cheap option and is tied for the red zone target lead with five.
TE – We mention team’s ranks against positions a lot, but this is a good time to remind everyone it’s a data point, not a bible. The Raiders are the third-best team in DK points given up to the tight end but they’ve faced Jared Cook, Ian Thomas, Patriots Tight End and Dawson Knox so far. That’s…not exactly murderer’s row for matchups. Travis Kelce is coming off his worst game of the year, making only one splash play the entire game on a 45 catch and run. There’s no reason to fear the matchup against the Raiders and Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets and end zone targets. I slightly prefer George Kittle but you can’t go wrong with Kelce.
D/ST – Unless Julian Edelman is going to gift the KC defense another touchdown, I’m not fully interested here. It’s not like they’re a bad option, ranking as the fifth overall DVOA defense in football. However, Carr isn’t turning the football over a lot and he’s only been sacked seven times. The pressure rate is barely over 17% on the Raiders side so if you spend up, I’d prefer to find a couple hundred to get to the next tier.
Cash – CEH, Mahomes, Kelce, Hill
GPP – Hardman, Watkins
Dolphins at 49ers, O/U of 49.5 (49ers -9)
Dolphins
QB – The Dolphins have already announced that they don’t feel Tua Tagovailoa is ready to start, so it’s another week of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The route to get there last week was hideously ugly, but he did end up with 26.3 DK points. That marks the third straight week he exceeded 25 DK and would leave him as a value if we think that trend continues.
San Francisco has the sixth-best passing DVOA and they’ve only given up the eighth-fewest DK points so the matchup is tough. I would contend that they haven’t faced old quarterbacks however. The schedule has featured Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz (with no weapons) and Kyler Murray. They haven’t exactly been tested to this point of the season. Fitzpatrick is 13th in attempts but does not have a lot of red zone attempts with just 14. He is inside the top 10 in on target rate, so I think he’s a fine GPP play. We don’t know exactly how this defense looks without all their missing players quite yet.
RB – Just like the passing defense, the 49ers sit in the top 10 for rushing DVOA as well. That’s not exactly a great spot for Myles Gaskin but my goodness is he cheap. He’s handled 56.5% of the running back carries on the Dolphins and leads with 13 red zone attempts. Not only that, he’s earned himself a 14.3% target share as well. It’s rare that someone so involved at this price really isn’t going to be on my radar, but there will likely be games we want to use Gaskin in the near future.
WR – No less than five corners for the 49ers are on IR, doubtful or questionable in this game so we’ll have to look at the individual matchups a little later in the week. We do know that DeVante Parker leads the team in targets at 29 and air yards share at 24.8%. Checking in at under $6,000 is a nice bonus and I’d be fine with him in GPP.
What’s a little surprising is Preston Williams has virtually disappeared in this offense. He’s only caught six of his 17 targets and even in the best possible matchup last week, Williams had one reception for 15 yards. Miami is talking about getting him the ball more, but it’s been a tough scene for Williams so far. Isaiah Ford has stepped up to fill some of that void, as he’s second on the team in targets with 26. Ford is playing 61% of the snaps and plays in the slot almost 92% of the time so the role is set. You could do worse in this range of salary.
TE – Mike Gesicki…..what in the world, man? As much as I think Gesicki is absurdly talented and a difference maker, that really hasn’t been the case this year. Other than the one game where he went bonkers against the injured Bills defense, Gesicki has totaled 60 yards in the other three weeks. Only a touchdown against the Jaguars somewhat saved him in Week 3. He’s only got 11 targets in those three weeks with five receptions. The floor for Gesicki is much lower than I thought it might be this year. He’s too pricey for me in a bad matchup, although it should be noted that San Francisco haven’t faced any really good tight ends yet either.
D/ST – A lot of this depends on the starting QB for the 49ers. Miami does have nine sacks on the year but only 14 hurries. The five turnovers isn’t terrible but there may not be much reward if the 49ers get healthier.
Cash – Parker
GPP – Fitzpatrick, Gaskin, Ford, Gesicki
49ers
QB – This situation is fluid and Jimmy Garoppolo may well be able to return to the lineup. He was limited on Wednesday so we’ll see how things go he rest of the week. It’s possible C.J. Beathard is the starter after Nick Mullens got rage-benched on Sunday night. Whichever QB starts does offer us some potential salary relief. Miami has the 28th ranked passing DVOA and they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards so far, although it’s just six touchdowns. The 49ers have come up to about middle of the pack as far as passing attempts, so the volume hasn’t been as low as we may have thought coming into the season. Let’s check back when we have a confirmed starter.
*Update* Jimmy G is staring but it’s hard to see a path that he has the same upside as Bridgewater.
RB – Raheem Mostert is still unsure for this week as well and if he’s out, we can fire up Jerick McKinnon. He was a monster on Sunday night football and for once, Kyle Shanahan didn’t use multiple backs that much. McKinnon had 21 total touches including goal-line work, which is especially notable. Usually Jeff Wilson poaches that work but he only had three carries total and one target. I think the Dolphins can keep this game close, so McKinnon should be the man here. Miami has the 31st ranked rushing DVOA and have already allowed five rushing scores. They’re not much better through the air with 210 yards and a touchdown allowed either.
*Update* Mostert is a game-time call. That’s not exactly helpful as a late game.
WR – With the presence of George Kittle, the receivers are a bit limited for ceiling. Deebo Samuel cam back into the lineup and played just 15 snaps, so even at a higher rate this week he’s fairly expensive. I’d rather just keep playing Brandon Aiyuk for basically he same price tag. He does have just an 11.9% target rate but he’s missed some time and has four rushing attempts already. After his debut, he does have over 13 DK in both games and has scored in each game. Aiyuk hasn’t spent much time at all in the slot so he’s Miley to see some Xavien Howard, who hasn’t been great so far. He does have two interceptions, but he’s also allowing 20.5 yards per reception on 15 receptions and 2.10 points per target. Shanahan might be able to get Aiyuk behind Howard in this one, though he wouldn’t be a cash option for me.
TE – Kittle is the most expensive tight end but after Sunday night, I’m surprised he’s not over $7,000. Miami’s rank against the position is irrelevant given who they have faced. Kittle is already 11th in targets among tight end despite missing two full weeks and playing hurt through most of Week 1. It doesn’t matter who is the QB because Shanahan can scheme the ball to Kittle very clearly. If you spend up, may as well go to the highest spot possible and you should think of Kittle as a high-end receiver.
D/ST – The 49ers are likely a solid option if not spectacular. Fitzpatrick could melt down at any moment and it’s typically ugly when he does. They only have eight sacks but San Francisco does have the third-highest pressure rate in football and 23 QB hurries. Mistakes can be forced here for sure.
Cash – Kittle, McKinnon (if no Mostert)
GPP – Aiyuk, Mostert if active, Jimmy G
Giants at Cowboys, O/U of 54 (Cowboys -9.5)
Giants
QB –This is the perfect spot to test whether you believe the matchup is more important or the offensive performance is more important. Daniel Jones is the QB28 right now, behind Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Tannehill who have played one fewer game. He has two touchdowns to seven turnovers and isn’t even averaging 225 passing yards. Jones is 28th in on target rate but does check in at 19th for intended air yards. Dallas is the 25th ranked passing DVOA defense and have allowed 11 touchdown passes, tied for third-most. I wish I could trust Jones for cash, but he does have some GPP appeal to load up elsewhere.
RB – The only back that’s of interest for the Giants is Devonta Freeman, coming off 15 touches last week. With the memories of Cleveland destroying Dallas on the ground last week, some might try and play Freeman this week since he’s under $5,000. I do understand that thought as Dallas is 23rd in run DVOA and have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league. Freeman is just like Jones is there’s nothing in his personal profile that makes me want to play him. Freeman only has a 2.7 YPC behind the Giants offensive line and 20 total touches. He’s only in play if you think the Dallas defense is worse than the Giants offense.
WR – After Week 1 when Darius Slayton scorched the Steelers, he’s combined for nine reception, 134 yards and no scores in the next three weeks. He should draw Trevon Diggs who is allowing a 67.7% catch rate, 2.00 points per target and a 13.8 YPR. With Slayton leading the team in air yards share by a wide margin at 36.8%, this is a fantastic spot for him if Jones can get him the ball. Golden Tate has accounted for a 12.7% target share in just three games, so he’ll get some looks but he production has not been there so far. He’s living in the slot at 80.9% rate and Jourdan Lewis has gotten gashed for a 2.20 points per target. Dallas has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and nine touchdowns to the position.
TE – There has to be a breakout game for Evan Engram coming and it very well could be here. He does lead the team in raw targets and receptions, which should mitigate the 4.5 aDOT so far. Slayton does own the red zone target lead with six but Engram is at four. Engram is under $5,000 since he’s had such a rough go so far but this is the point where his schedule opens up. He’s likely the closest to a cash option for me this week since Dallas has allowed three scores to tight ends so far and the seventh-most DK points as well.
D/ST – The Giants do have 10 sacks on the year but Dallas is the number one offense in pace and they rank third in points.
Cash – Engram
GPP – Slayton, Jones, Freeman, Tate
Dallas
QB – On paper, Dak Prescott should be the most expensive player on the slate. He’s on pace for over 6,000 yards and 36 touchdowns, not to mention the three rushing touchdowns he has. He has the attempt lead by 24 and even though the Giants have the 11th best DVOA passing defense, there’s absolutely zero fear with Dak. The only small question is if he has to go bus if the Giants can’t keep pace. It could wind up being more of a running game late, but that wouldn’t really stop Prescott from being efficient.
*Update* Left Tackle Tyron Smith is out for the year, but neither Zeke nor Dak have seen a statistical drop-off with him out. In fact, they are slightly better stat-wise. It’s a little bit of a small sample but still, it doesn’t concern me with playing anyone.
RB – DK seems to not really like Ezekiel Elliott this year. He’s sixth in carries and trails only Alvin Kamara in targets at the position. Zeke is third in PPR setting and yet, he’s under $8,000. The consistency has been there with only one game below 18 DK. The Giants are 24th in rushing DVOA and there’s no reason to not look at Zeke in all formats. Tony Pollard scored last week but he has all of 12 touches over four games so there’s no reason to really chase the score.
WR – Amari Cooper leads the league in targets and almost has to be in play until that changes. He doesn’t have the scariest matchup on the other side against James Bradberry with a 72.4% catch rate allowed, 1.80 points per target and a 9.4 YPR. I don’t know if you need to spend all the way up since the game isn’t a projected shootout and CeeDee Lamb is $1,400 cheaper. After Cooper’s 51 targets, the mix of Lamb, Zeke, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz all are between 30 and 24 targets. Lamb lags in air yard share at 16.7% but he’s operating out of the slot at nearly 90%. He’s taken over as the number two option over Gallup as far as safety, although Gallup is a deep threat with over 24% of the air yards.
TE – I think I would rather play Engram on the other side, but Schultz shouldn’t be totally ignored. You do have to wonder how much of the production Schultz has had has come with game scripts. Will he continue to see at least six targets if Dallas is coasting in this game? The answer is likely no but that’s about the only nitpick we have here. He actually leads the team in red zone targets on the season. I do prefer other cheaper options however unless you think this one goes back and forth.
D/ST – If they were cheaper, I’d take a flyer on the Cowboys defense. It’s not like Daniel Jones suddenly won’t turn over the ball. Dallas somehow has the 17th ranked overall DVOA but is allowing the most points per game in the league and only has two turnovers to go with eight sacks. Even the pressure rate is barely over 20%.
Cash – Zeke, Dak, Lamb, Cooper
GPP – Schultz, Gallup
Colts at Browns, O/U of 46 (Colts -2)
Colts
QB – Philip Rivers is barely inside of the top 30 QB’s for fantasy this year and he’s become a total game-manager to this point. He’s 22nd in attempts, 23rd in intended air yards and 14th in on target rate. That’s not a great mix for fantasy, especially when Indy is fifth in rushing attempts per game and 30th in pace. Cleveland is only 20th in passing DVOA and they have allowed the third-most passing yards so far. You just can’t trust Rivers and the Colts to really attack that based on how they’ve played so far.
RB – I want to hit the lock button on Jonathan Taylor with his salary, but the Colts usage the past two weeks has been infuriating. In the last two games, Taylor has 32 touches, Nyheim Hines has 23 and Jordan Wilkins has 20. I’m not sure why you took Taylor so high if he’s going to split work this much. Taylor does lead the team in red zone carries at 16 but the other two have totaled 12, so the lead isn’t that large. Hines also has three red zone targets to one for Taylor. Cleveland is top 10 in rushing DVOA and has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards. With the split, Taylor is in play but not quite as attractive as I thought.
WR – I can’t see much of a pathway for T.Y. Hilton to do much here. Not only does he draw Denzel Ward from the Browns, Ward has only allowed a 42.9% catch rate and 1.20 points per target. Hilton has been roundly useless for fantasy with no games over 7.6 DK points. The target share is only 17.7% and even the 31.1% of the air yards isn’t that attractive. If I’m playing anyone from the pass catchers, it’s Zach Pascal. He’s running over 52% of his snaps from the slot and he’s already racked up the second-most targets on the team. Additionally, he has the lead in red zone targets with five.
TE – Many might think the TE to play is Mo Alie-Cox after another touchdown last week but I’m not sure that’s the route to take. Trey Burton came off the IR and led the tight end group in targets with five. Alie-Cox only had two and Jack Doyle had one. Burton’s metrics were a 17.9% target share and 16% of the air yards (third on the team). He and Hilton tied with five each while Pascal had eight targets himself. I’d rather go Burton at cost given how he looked last week.
D/ST – The Browns only have four turnovers on the year and have allowed Baker Mayfield to be sacked just six times. The Colts do have the best overall defense in DVOA and they are relatively cheap so they’re in play, even if I’d rather find some money to move up a tier. In fairness, the Colts do have seven turnovers, two safeties, two touchdowns and 10 sacks themselves.
Cash – Pascal, Taylor
GPP – Burton, Rivers, Hines
Browns
QB – Baker Mayfield took what is among the best possible matchups last week and scored exactly 15.2 DK points. He’s yet to go over 16.26 DK points and is relatively expensive for his output. Mayfield is only 23rd in passing attempts and is under 30 per game. 27 more quarterbacks have more yards than Mayfield does and he’s 30th in on target rate. Going against the second-best passing DVOA defense just isn’t the spot for me with Mayfield.
RB – With the loss of Nick Chubb for multiple weeks, Kareem Hunt is going to be on the forefront for the foreseeable future. Chubb was responsible for 45% of the Browns running back carries and 37% of the red zone carries. That’s a lot to replace and even if Hunt just gets half of that, he’s likely a value at his current salary. The Colts do have the fifth-best rushing DVOA and allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards on the season. Hunt is still perfectly viable as a volume play and in the best rushing attack in football with 204.5 yards per game and the second-most attempts per game. Relative unknown D’Ernest Johnson looks to be the next man in the rotation with 13 carries last game. He didn’t have a target so Hunt is still the far better play, but Johnson is on the radar.
*Update* Hunt does not have an injury designation, and really has my eyes despite a poor matchup on paper.
WR – If folks want to chase Odell Beckham after his monster game, I’m more than willing to let them. He had a 50-yard reverse for a touchdown to put him way over the top and two touchdowns on just five receptions (one on a trick play). When it takes those kind of plays to have a big game in a fantastic matchup, I’m for sure a little leery the following week. The good news for Beckham is he has a 43.5% air yards share and 28.9% of the targets. Corner Xavier Rhodes has found some new life in Indy, with a 47.1% catch rate and eight receptions on 17 targets.
With such a low volume passing attack, Jarvis Landry has totally fallen off the fantasy map. He’s barely over 10 DK points per game and the only time he’s been over 11.1 is when he threw a TD pass to Beckham. Landry does not have a game over five receptions or 61 yards this year, so I’ll be passing.
TE – If it wasn’t for the touchdown last week, I’m not sure I’d know that Austin Hooper was playing. With David Njoku ready to come off the IR, it makes the target share for Hooper even thinner. Before he saw seven looks against the Cowboys, he was under 13% in this offense. I can’t see much of a reason to play Hooper when Ebron is $100 cheaper, among others. The Colts are the best team to tight ends in football, having allowed 71 total yards and zero scores. It should be noted they have faced very little challenge at the position so far.
D/ST – The Browns do boast Myles Garrett who has been a wrecking machine so far, but Rivers is 30th in pressure rate. He’s only been sacked three times and Cleveland is allowing over 30 points per game. They do lead the league in turnovers forced at 10 and are the only team in double-digits. They are in play, but not a slam dunk.
Cash – Hunt
GPP – Johnson, Beckham, Baker, D/ST
Core Four (Cash Game Based)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Robby Anderson, Ezekiel Elliott, James Robinson
So the Core this week is sort of expensive so I’ll cheat a bit and say that I’m building with Zaccheaus right now. I don’t believe Julio plays, so I’ll take Anderson and Zaccheaus to get cheap passing game exposure to the Panthers/Falcons game. If that changes, I will update for Sunday morning. Kareem Hunt was in strong consideration, but I’ll take the much softer matchup with Robinson.
Game Stacks
Panthers/Falcons – Teddy B, Anderson, Mike Davis, Ridley, Zaccheaus, Gurley, Anderson, Ryan
Jaguars/Texans – Watson, Fuller, Chark, Robinson, Shenault, David Johnson, Cooks, Minshew
Giants/Cowboys – Dak, Zeke, Lamb, Slayton, Engram, Cooper, Schultz, Jones, Tate
Raiders/Chiefs – CEH, Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Waller, Jacobs, Carr, Ruggs
Team Stacks
Ravens – Jackson, Hollywood, Andrews – Run Back with Boyd or Higgins
Steelers – Ben, JuJu, Conner, Ebron, Johnson – Run Back with Ertz (don’t love the Eagles here)
Cardinals – Kyler, Nuk, Drake – Run Back with Smith or Crowder
49ers – Kittle, McKinnon (if Mostert is out), Jimmy G – Run Back with Parker
Let’s get after it this week my friends!
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