NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 2

NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 2

It was a great week to kick off the NFL season as the Win Daily team saw a whole bunch of green screens! We managed to really hit on a lot of plays without a preseason, and I can tell you that’s not easy. It’s really important to not overreact to just one week, but that’s the only data we have in front of us. If it doesn’t match what was done last year, just keep that in mind. With that said, let’s start digging around on NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 2 and figure out who we’re after this week!

Lions at Packers, O/U of 49.5 (Packers -6)

Lions

QB – Matt Stafford isn’t coming off the best game of his career but he had a game-winning touchdown dropped that would have helped his output. He still threw for almost 300 yards without Kenny Golladay in the lineup and he’ll likely need to put up some points to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.

It’s a little tough to tell what the Packers defense looks like. They got out so far ahead of the Vikings on Sunday that much of the passing game production came in garbage time. They didn’t allow over 260 yards and only gave up two touchdowns on top of that as well. If Golladay is back in, Stafford’s outlook is considerably better. The Pack only got pressure 7.9% of the time in Week 1 and created 2 sacks. Give Stafford time and he can pick it apart.

RB – I was a little surprised by the usage in the Lions backfield. Kerryon Johnson started, D’Andre Swift got the most snaps and Adrian Peterson got the most carries and was the most productive overall. Alrighty then. What truly stands out at this point (add in the just one game caveat that should resonate through this article) is the red zone rushes. Yes, Swift got a rushing touchdown but AP had six red zone rushes to Swift’s one.

The encouraging facet for Swift was he did get six targets, fourth on the team. That did include a really poor drop that could get him punished in Week 2 but that’s speculation. Green Bay did a good job holding Dalvin Cook in check last week but the game script also played a part in that. Both Swift and AP are in play for a value back. Peterson might be a hair “safer” but if the Lions have to chase the score, Swift could have the better game.

WR – A lot here hinges on the health of Golladay. If he’s full go, he’s likely not expensive enough coming off a year scoring 11 times with questionable QB play through half the year. If he’s out again, the combo of Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and Quintez Cephus are all intriguing. Cephus led the team in targets Week 1 with 10, quite the mark for a rookie. He only converted those into three receptions but the volume is what we’re after. Green Bay gave up almost 200 yards and two touchdowns to the position last week.

Jones had a quiet game but could easily explode here, Golladay or not. Three of his eight targets came in the red zone and that was second-most on the week. Even last year, he was only two targets behind Golladay in the red zone and the price is still reasonable. Amendola is more of a safe pick with a floor, but the ceiling might not be as high as we’d like.

*Update* Golladay has been ruled out yet again. Jones is a great bounce back candidate and could be overlooked after a relative dud last week.

TE – It was a fine game for TJ Hockenson in Week 1 with a touchdown scored on his one red zone target. Finishing tied for fourth on the team in targets was a little more disappointing but he was on the field for 50 of the 78 snaps. Green Bay did snuff out the tight ends for Minnesota and being over $5,000 does Hockenson no favors. I just struggle to see any reason to pay for him as the TE6 for salary on this slate. That’s even more true if Golladay is back in action.

D/ST – After seeing Rodgers going full on Vintage Rodgers and not having corners to guard Davante Adams? No thanks.

Cash – Stafford, Jones

GPP – Peterson, Swift, Cephus

Packers

QB – I wasn’t particularly on Rodgers and that game stack but fortunately Stix and the rest of the boys were and it went crazy. Rodgers finished with over 335 passing yards and four touchdowns while checking in with over 370 intended air yards. Maybe even better for his outlook was 44 passing attempts in a game they seized control of early. He also finished second in red zone attempts, a big boon for his value.

My main concerns with Rodgers coming into the year were the lack of secondary receivers behind Adams and finishing only 17th in passing attempts per game. The secondary receiver issues is still up in the air but if Rodgers gets closer to 40 passing attempts, we could be in store for a massive season. He is the QB3 on the slate and you can certainly go lower but Rodgers remains an excellent target his week.

RB – Aaron Jones only played about 55% of the snaps on Sunday but he still recorded 20 touches and that’s plenty for me. Jones was third on the team in targets with six, four of which came in the red zone. Add that to the three red zone rushes and we’re talking about seven total opportunities. Jones is normally going to be a TD heavy player when he really goes well, so it’s great to see him getting this volume where it matters most. Not having a reliable second receiver really helps Jones out when the field gets compressed.

Jamaal Williams was also involved with 11 total touches and he did get a couple red zone carries. I still wouldn’t really be chasing him this week even at the savings, but he does carry at least a chance at a very low salary. Rookie AJ Dillon was barely on the field and only had two carries. He’s not in play until something changes.

WR – It’s safe to say Davante Adams is #goodatfootball at this point. He exited Week 1 with the overall target lead with 17 and boatloads of targets should be expected all season long. As we mentioned, the Packers didn’t address the wide receiver position really at all. Somewhat surprising was the 9.6 aDOT but that isn’t much of a nitpick with that many targets. He won’t maintain a 40% target share but he should be the highest salaried receiver on the board and I will absolutely have shares.

*Update* There was a discussion in Discord about Adams and how he plays vs Matt Patricia as coach so I wanted to see how the stats looked. In 2019, Adams played the Lions once and went 7/93/1 and in 2018 he played them once for 9/140/1. Patricia hasn’t stopped him yet.

The secondary wide receivers could provide some serious value. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is cheaper than Allen Lazard and MVS had a higher target share in Week 1. They both scored, but MVS had seven targets to four for Lazard. The Lions gave up 201 yards and two touchdowns to Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. If Rodgers gets 40 attempts, all three receivers could have big days just like last week.

TE – The Packers tight ends combined for three total targets on Sunday. Jace Sternberger had one and Josiah Deguara had two. There’s no reason to take this route, even if you’re just hunting for a TD only punt. Green Bay and Rodgers just don’t use this position much.

D/ST – Green Bay generated two pressures all day, but only faced 25 pass attempts. They’re kind of pricey for my taste as the eighth-most expensive defense. Detroit only allowed one sack to Chicago as well, doing a good job of protecting Stafford. I definitely prefer other options at this point.

Cash – Adams, Rodgers, Jones

GPP – MVS, Lazard

49ers at Jets, O/U of 42.5 (49ers -7)

49ers

QB – I’m torn early in the week. At the first glance, Jimmy Garoppolo would be my cash QB at this salary. However, we need to see who’s going to be catching passes for him come Sunday. Jimmy G passed for 259 yards and two touchdowns and had really no options in the passing game. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were out and George Kittle missed a couple snaps with injury (and has a knee sprain).

Still, this Jets defense just let Josh Allen pass for 312 yards. We mostly expected them to get gouged through the air and that was on display early. Garoppolo is at an excellent price tag and even though he didn’t push the ball down the field with 220 intended air yards, there’s plenty of upside in this spot. I’d love for Kittle and Aiyuk to play, but may roll Jimmy G in cash regardless.

RB – I’m not 100% sure what to make of this backfield yet either. Based on just the box score, Raheem Mostert was the dominant back. That could be slightly deceiving. It seems like the 49ers were cautious with Tevin Coleman with the air quality as he was barely involved. Additionally, 75 of Mostert’s 95 receiving yards came on one pass play. The speedster always has a shot of taking a play to the house but I’m not convinced he should be over $6,000 in this spot.

Jerick McKinnon certainly looked good coming back off injury as well, generating 44 yards on just six touches. Again, does he get three carries and five targets with Coleman potentially all the way back? That remains to be seen. The safe play might be to avoid this backfield until we see some clarity. Coleman himself is an interesting GPP value at minimum for a running back on DK.

WR – The good news is Aiyuk is believed to be able to play this week, according to Shanahan. The 49ers really do need him with a current corps of Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor and the ghost of Dante Pettis. The former two got five targets a piece but did nothing of note with them. I would give Aiyuk a look at his price if he’s active, but past that the ball gets spread around and nobody really sticks out. Taylor at least saw three red zone targets, but I’m not sold on that.

*Update* Aiyuk is not listed on the injury report at all, so he’s in line to start. He could eve an awesome value at receiver on a slate that has a lot. That holds even more true now that Kittle is out.

TE – Much like the receiver situation, we need clarity on Kittle. I will be up front right now – even if he’s active, I’m not playing him. It’s not Kittle isn’t a great player and can’t produce while banged up. There’s a tight end $400 cheaper in one of the best spots for his position that I’m going after. Even Kittle only saw five targets on Sunday which isn’t exactly what you want from an expensive tight end. I don’t expect that to be the case all year but it’s all about another tight end this week for me.

*Update* Kittle is out and we should expect Jordan Reed to step right into the role to some extent. He’s not Kittle at all but he used to be one of the most athletic tight ends in the league. The price is wonderful and you would need just 10 DK for about a 4x return.

D/ST – This is another spot that I love in a vacuum, but you won’t see me play a D/ST at $4,000 almost ever. The Jets did very little on Sunday outside a big play and they are now without Le’Veon Bell. San Francisco only got two sacks and had one takeaway. I’d expect them to pad those numbers this week but they’re just quite expensive.

Cash – Jimmy G, Aiyuk, Reed

GPP – Mostert, Coleman, D/ST, McKinnon

Jets

QB – There’s no reason to go after Sam Darnold yet again. He did nothing to change that idea in a tough matchup with Buffalo, finishing with not even 220 yards and only one touchdown. It’s certainly not all his fault, but playing him puts you at a major disadvantage to almost every other quarterback. There’s going to be a couple weeks to use him as a salary saver but it’s not Week 2.

RB – Bell is out but I’m not chasing either Frank Gore or Josh Adams. The 49ers allowed 86 rushing yards to the Arizona backs, but the talent level is far different. Gore is likely to see double-digit carries and maybe he lucks into a touchdown, but this is an example of playing value just for price, not for expected production. These two combined 32 yards rushing eight rushing attempts. Adams was targeted in the passing game and had 14 yards on two receptions. You could talk me into savings on the salary, but I’m not going there in cash unless the ownership is just overwhelming.

WR – The player with the fifth-most targets after one week? Jamison Crowder. His price really didn’t come up that much and he’s going to continue to see a ton of targets as the season goes. The 49ers struggled with DeAndre Hopkins, but who hasn’t? New York doesn’t have anyone approaching that talent level, especially on the outside. Breshad Perriman played all the snaps and managed six targets. He just did nothing with only a 3/17/0 line. Considering the 49ers do have good corners, I’ll take Crowder in the slot here.

*Update* It now looks like Crowder is in serious danger of missing this game. The 49ers will be without corner Richard Sherman so I guess you could talk me into a Perriman share but it’s not a play I love.

*Update Two* Crowder has been ruled out. I may have blown off Perriman a bit too quickly. He did see a 6.4 aDOT which isn’t great and the targets could approach double-digits. I shouldn’t just scoff at that potential volume for such a cheap price.

TE – With the fact that Perriman and Chris Hogan are far from premier threats on the perimeter, Darnold is likely to struggle to get the ball downfield. That means loads of targets in the intermediate area and Chris Herndon stands out as well. He finished second on the team with seven targets, catching six of them. That was fourth among tight ends in Week 1 and he’s really at a low price tag. If you don’t spend up at this spot, Herndon is an excellent punt choice.

D/ST – I don’t believe there’s much upside for this unit as far as turnovers and sacks. Sure, they got to Josh Allen there times but he’s a bit of a different QB than Jimmy G. If I’m punting a defense, I want some sort of upside and there’s not much of a reason to believe they have it.

Cash – Herndon

GPP – Gore, Adams, Perriman

Giants at Bears, O/U of 42 (Bears -5.5)

Giants

QB – The Giants are on a bit of a short week from Monday Night Football and Daniel Jones is interesting at his price tag. He once again showed his athleticism with 22 yards rushing to go with his 270+ yards passing. The turnovers were still a bit of an issue with two picks, but the Steelers defense is tough. Chicago only got one pressure and Jones could pretty easily pay off this price tag. He threw for an extra touchdown in garbage time but it doesn’t matter how they come in fantasy, just how many. Anytime you get a QB under $6,000 that can run a little and throw 35+ times with 10 red zone attempts, you should be interested.

RB – It was a tough night for Saquon Barkley on Monday. He average 0.4 YPC and had just SIX total rushing yards on 15 attempts. Yeesh. The good news at least was he also saw nine targets which co-led the team. If you give Barkley 20+ touches, it’s going to end well way more often than not. The Bears were surprisingly mediocre against the running backs this past week. They let up 151 total yards and a touchdown. Detroit splits their backfield but New York doesn’t to any real extent. Being RB2 in salary is more than fair and he could be lower-owned coming off a relative dud.

WR – Golden Tate being out didn’t hurt but it was a great 2020 debut for Darius Slayton. He co-led the team in targets with nine and went for 6/102/2 against a very difficult matchup. That included a 41-yard touchdown and the garbage time one but at $5,000 he certainly is on the radar in a major way. The fact he comes in under the Sterling Shepard price is a nice addition to the play.

If Tate plays, the ball targets could definitely change a little bit. I do wonder though if Shepard and Tate are more the intermediate route runners while Slayton is the home run hitter. If that’s the case, he’s certainly the best value of this corps.

TE – It was a big mixed bag for Evan Engram. On the one hand, he saw seven targets and that’s great volume for a tight end. On the other, he turned that into a whopping nine yards on two receptions. The Bears didn’t give up a ton to the tight ends in Week 1 outside the Hockenson touchdown, but it was a tough first game for Engram. I’m likely to go elsewhere on this slate but he’s an excellent bounciest-back candidate game log chasers won’t look at.

D/ST – They played better than I thought against the Steelers to start, but that may have been the rust from Big Ben more than anything else. However, they do still interest me to some extent. Mitchell Trubisky is one of the weakest starting quarterbacks in the NFL and is mistake prone. We talk about we want sacks and turnovers and even though Chicago only gave up one sack in Week 1, we can at least consider them as a punt. Let’s see how other defenses line up.

Cash – Saquon, Slayton

GPP – Jones, Engram, D/ST, Shepard

Bears

QB – We say we don’t care how/when the production comes, but you have to feel a little lucky with Trubisky’s box score from last week. He was dreadful as has been the par for the course until he went off for three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The positives to take from it are he still finished at 20/32, so he rebounded from the poor start. Also, kicking in 26 rushing yards is always appreciated. New York did just give up three passing touchdowns to the Steelers and Trubisky is still very affordable. Lastly, Trubisky had the third-most red zone attempts and cashed in twice. I won’t go there in cash, but he’s still very much GPP viable.

RB – I feel like I’m just being too optimistic, but I actually think David Montgomery could have a pretty solid game here. He rushed 13 times in a game that the Bears had to mount a furious comeback late. Additionally, one of his traits coming out of college was breaking tackles. He did break 28 last year but broke five in Week 1 alone. Montgomery is the lead back here even with Tarik Cohen soaking up seven carries. Steelers running back Benny Snell rolled up well over 100 yards rushing last week on the Giants, showing it is possible. At only an $800 difference, Montgomery is the favored play since he should roughly double the touches for Cohen.

WR – It was just an average day at the office for Allen Robinson last week but that just means the price came down by $100. He still saw nine targets and two of them came into the red zone. The great news is Robinson and Anthony Miller had aDOT’s of 16.4 for A-Rob and 18.2 for Miller. Compare that with 11.4 and 10.4 in 2019 and it’s easy to see how these days could have been bigger. Now, they won’t stay this high but both receivers are interesting here. Robinson had the advantage in red zone targets at 2-1 but Miller got the touchdown from 27 yards out. A-Rob is still my favorite but Miller is not far behind at all.

TE – I didn’t want much to do with Jimmy Graham but he sure was a part of the Chicago offense. He had a touchdown called back and had one count on seven total targets. He led in red zone targets with three. Is it the best thing for the Chicago offense to funnel so much to Graham? That’s debatable but it’s clear they tried. He’s right with Herndon as a viable punt. Herndon is going to be safer on a PPR site like DK, but Graham has some TD upside.

D/ST – The Bears defense is in the same boat as San Francisco’s. Do I think they run up a few sacks and a couple turnovers? Yes I do but I’m not looking to pay for it. They are also not my favorite high end target so I won’t have much exposure here. Having said that, Danny Dimes is still fairly mistake prone. Once a mistake happens, it takes one return for defensive scoring to go through the roof.

Cash – A-Rob, Miller, Montgomery

GPP – Trubisky, Graham, D/ST

Rams at Eagles, O/U of 45.5 (Rams -1)

Rams

QB – If a quarterback plays a week and doesn’t throw a touchdown, did he actually play? Jared Goff was efficient in Week 1 but he also finished 29th in intended air yards. He had the third most YAC after one week which means his receivers did a good bit of work. That’s honestly not a bad thing against this Eagles secondary. Philly only gave up 113 yards and 11 receptions to Washington, but the Rams offense is constructed decidedly differently.

Goff finished ninth in on target throws at 82.1%. You had better be accurate when you tie for last in air yards per attempt, with just 4.5. Goff and Coach Sean McVay can do a better job seizing on the weaker Philly secondary than Dwayne Haskins did so I do like Goff a good bit. The Eagles should be able to handle the Rams rushing attack so this shapes up as a Goff game to me.

RB – To the surprise of nobody that has watched Philly the past few seasons, they Eagles snuffed out the running game last week. They only allowed 2.2 yards per attempt and the eighth-fewest yards on the ground total. They gave up two close touchdowns, messing with the ranking early. Malcolm Brown was the clear lead dog as far as snaps in Week 1 with just over 60%. He had 21 touches while rookie Cam Akers had 15.

That’s not bad for Akers considering he played under 40% of the snaps in Week 1. Brown had four targets to one for Akers but there’s not a lot of reason to run against the brick wall here. You have the Indy backs at the same price range as Brown and others just a bit lower. On a 13 game slate, you have to be alright with just erasing some plays. Brown and Akers are some of them for me. They just don’t rate well on paper.

WR – You can definitely make a case for both in this spot but Robert Woods shouldn’t be priced above Cooper Kupp based on Week 1 production. They played almost identical snaps but Woods led with eight targets and three of which came in the red zone. Only two players had more in the first week. Woods also had a rushing attempt, which he’s capable of doing every week. The Rams aren’t going to be afraid to go pass heavy in this one and double-digit targets for Woods (and Kupp) wouldn’t be that surprising. Van Jefferson and Josh Reynolds didn’t exceed two targets, so I would focus on just the top two receivers.

TE – The 2020 campaign didn’t get off to a great star for Tyler Higbee. He only saw four targets the entire game and the loss of Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley were supposed to help him. That was 111 targets that went out the door but it didn’t compute yet for the young tight end. Philly gave up a touchdown to a tight end last week but not much else. I can’t say there’s a ton here for Higbee based on what we have in front of us, but it’s still hard to let go of how well he finished 2019.

D/ST – Now we might be cooking for a defense. We rode Washington to a massive DK score last week at what amounted to minimum price. The Rams got pressure on Dak Prescott 22.2% of the time last week and sacked him three times. After giving up the most sacks in Week 1, Philly has shown to be vulnerable. They could get lineman Lane Johnson back, but they are still banged up regardless. Philly also had three turnovers, so the Rams shape up to be a solid value this week.

Cash – Woods, Kupp, Goff, D/ST

GPP – Higbee

Eagles

QB – Carson Wentz got harassed all day long and it showed up. He finished tied for 24th in on target throws last week with just 66.7%. He also finished with the most bad throws with 13. He turned it over three times and has to face another tough pass rush. It’s not all his fault, but I can’t say I love him at all this week.

Having said all this, he also finished first in intended air yards and was the only QB over 12 last week. I would make a lot of sense if the Eagles dialed that back a bit since they couldn’t protect him all that well. If they can get the ball out quicker, Wentz could have a better day and make it a bit easier to get the secondary to creep up on those intermediate routes. He has some GPP appeal, but nothing past that for me.

RB – With the surprise inactive of Miles Sanders, his backup Boston Scott was popular and flopped pretty badly. He managed almost 59% of the snaps but just 11 touches. I don’t particularly weigh the Week 1 numbers for the Rams against running backs much. They faced Ezekiel Elliott so that’s not exactly a fair measuring stick.

What’s more interesting to me is the health of Sanders. If he can suit up for this game, can we risk it? He’s only $6,000 and he’s far more talented than Scott. I’d be willing to take the chance in GPP but Philly is almost surely going to baby him if he plays. Understand you’re getting a set snap count most likely.

*Update* Sanders says he’s 100% ready to go and Scott didn’t exactly drape himself with glory last week. If Sanders gets 20 touches, he is a pretty significant bargain.

WR – Two of the top three receivers in aDOT from Week 1 reside in Philly in Jalen Reagor (first) and DeSean Jackson (third). Those types of targets are wildly valuable…if you can complete them. They combined for 11 targets but only had three receptions put together. Neither player saw a target in the red zone, so they seem to remain volatile players at the moment.

Reagor was a little banged up in this game but actually played a few more snaps to lead Jackson and all receivers. However, no receiver played over 59% of the snaps. You could argue for both but if I’m leaning one, I’ll take Reagor at a $1,300 discount and hope he can finish a 55 yard bomb in the end zone.

TE – Part of the reason you’re playing roulette with the receivers is the tandem of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Ertz was really bailed out by his early touchdown because he only caught three passes for 18 yards the entire game. Goedert was the leading receiver in this one with nine targets, eight receptions, 101 yards and 1 TD.

You can argue at $5,000 he could be the best play of the entire Eagles receiving corps. He had just a 6.3 aDOT but that could mean security blanket. Anyone remember 2019 Austin Hooper? Goedert was only four snaps behind Ertz for the team lead and both players should be viewed as receivers. Goedert could be an option for a 2TE attack on a DK lineup as well with this style of volume. He was second on the Eagles for targets last year as well.

D/ST – Philly got pressure often enough at 22%and finished with three sacks but I’m not all that interested. I’ll play the Rams for cheaper in this game and expect Aaron Donald to wreck the offensive line.

Cash – Goedert, Ertz

GPP – Wentz, Reagor, Jackson, Sanders

Jaguars at Titans, O/U of 42.5 (Titans -9)

Jaguars

QB – I don’t know how often the Mustached Maniac Minshew is going to throw three touchdowns, but Gardner Minshew was outstanding on Sunday. He only had a single incompletion on his 20 attempts and he was tied with Goff for the lowest intended air yards per attempts. He was the only starter that was under 100 intended air yards total.

It remains to be seen what happens to the play book if they get down big. Since they pulled the upset, the Jags likely didn’t show us all the tricks for the passing attack. Still, if Minshew can maintain his accuracy in Jay Gruden’s system, he has some upside. The price is certainly acceptable and even though the Titans only gave up 216 passing yards, Minshew still could pay of his price with ease. Jacksonville was the only team to get under 50 plays in Week 1, which should change this week.

RB – I wish we had got the game script we assumed last week. Now I’m still not sure what to make of James Robinson. He was solid, with 90 total yards on 17 touches and played 68% of the snaps. The question is if that happens when they’re behind or if Chris Thompson gets more burn. Thompson couldn’t have gotten much less with just two targets and receptions total. Tennessee gave up over 100 yard son the ground Monday night to mostly Melvin Gordon. The prices for both backs keep them afloat as salary savers. Just remember the game script in Week 1 is likely atypical for the Jags. Thompson could still be quite sneaky.

WR – Between just 20 pass attempts and the fact Dede Westbrook missed the game, it’s really difficult to peg down the Jaguars receivers. Keelan Cole led with five targets but both D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault had four. The latter two each had one red zone target and the both cashed them in for scores. If we look at snaps, Chark had a sizable lead with Cole and Shenault basically split. The Titans were the fifth-best unit to receivers this week but Denver was missing Courtland Sutton. I will likely avoid this situation for the most part, with Chark remaining the favorite.

TE – If the first week holds true, Tyler Eifert and the Jaguars tight ends won’t matter much. Even with 20 attempts, just one target is really nothing. He also only played just 56% of the snaps, so there’s really no excitement here to use Eifert.

D/ST – I’ll pass here. Tennessee didn’t turn the ball over and likely won’t do that a whole lot this season. The Broncos only managed one sack of the Titans and they have more talent than the Jags defense for the most part. The Jags did generate two turnovers, but Rivers gonna Rivers. We can find other teams with higher chances at this splash plays we love.

Cash – Minshew

GPP – Robinson, Chark, Shenault, Robinson, Thompson

Titans

QB – Ryan Tannehill did about exactly what we should expect through the 2020 season. He completed 67.4% of his passes and had no interceptions, throwing for two touchdowns. I doubt he throws it 43 times very often but that’s the way the game went on Monday night. If they had a kicker that could kick, maybe he wouldn’t have. That franchise has just been cursed lately with kickers.

Tannehill falls into the Jimmy G/Minshew category. You’re banking on efficiency, but Goff remains my favorite QB in this range. Tannehill might find his way into a lineup or two since the Jaguars got smashed for 363 passing yards, third-worst of the week.

RB – It’s sign of respect that Derrick Henry ran for 116 yards and added 15 on three receptions and we all kind of went “meh”. Henry didn’t seem to be running with quite the same gusto as normal, but he ground it out for 19.1 DK points without a touchdown. Here’s where things get a little weird. Jacksonville got scorched by running backs in Week 1 but it was through the passing game. They gave up 17 receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown. Henry isn’t the back to do damage through the air, but I wouldn’t trust the rushing defense for Jacksonville. Henry is under $8,000 and one of the safest plays on the board. He already leads the league in attempts.

WR – This could be a great “play low” chance for AJ Brown. He had a pretty disappointing day for results, but was close to a monster day. Tannehill missed that he broke open backed up near their own end zone. It was a 75 yard touchdown in the making. Later, Tannehill threw it to him in the back of the end zone and overthrew it. Brown was one decision and a few inches from having a monster day. Not many will roster him.

I can’t emphasize how much I don’t want to get sucked into the Corey Davis play. He’s only $4,000 and coming off a 20 DK point game. He garnered eight targets and caught seven of them for 101 yards. Could he be on the DeVante Parker path and things are just starting to click? I’m not willing to bet on it after one week. He’ll only be used if we need to match the field in cash. Adam Humphries also had seven targets, but remember how often Tannehill will attempt 40+ passes.

*Update* Brown has a bone bruise that seems to put his status for this week and next in jeopardy. If he misses, I think Davis does become cash chalk and we might just need to bite the bullet.

*Update Two* Brown has been ruled out so Davis is going to garner some attention. Unless you play Tannehill (I can’t say I am), I’m limiting myself to just one Titans pass catcher.

TE – I love me some freak athletes at the tight end position and the mountain of a man that is Jonnu Smith qualifies. He sucked up seven targets and was one of five players to get a red zone look. Tying for second in targets is a good start, though he’s going to still mostly be a TD or bust style player. I prefer him in GPP for that reason since you could justifiably go all the way down to Herndon if you needed the savings.

D/ST – The Titans did not record a sack and only forced one turnover from Drew Lock. They’re no even cheap so they’re not particularly on my radar at all. That was with Jadeveon Clowney pushing for 80% of the snaps as well.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill, Davis

GPP – Smith

Panthers at Buccaneers, O/U of 47.5 (Bucs -9.5)

Panthers

QB – The Bucs finished 12th in pressure rate in Week 1 and gave Drew Brees some issues. The front seven is undeniably the strength of that defense so Teddy Bridgewater could have his hands full a little bit from that perspective. The Raiders managed a 15.4% pressure rate on Teddy B in Week 1 and the Bucs have a better chance at that.

It was nice to see Bridgewater throwing downfield. He had an 8.2 intended air yards per attempt and that was 11th. One of the knocks was not taking chances but at least for one week, he let loose a little bit.He was the victim of a couple drops last week as well that could have helped the fantasy production. I don’t feel much need to go to him this week in this range and with the matchup. The Bucs did just hold Drew Brees to 198 yards on 31 attempts.

RB – It was basically another day at the office for Christian McCaffrey. He went for almost 29 DK points and racked up two touchdowns on 14 total yards. The only small complaint is he only saw four targets after averaging over seven per game last year. The Bucs let up the sixth-most receiving yards to the backs last week and Alvin Kamara is a similar type of weapon in the passing game to CMC. As always, it’s just a matter of if you like enough value to play CMC but he’s always in play in every format.

WR – Part of the reason CMC’s targets may have been down a touch is the trio of DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel. They combined for about 70% of the targets on Sunday and it’s something to monitor. Moore is a year better, Anderson is a new arrival that deserves targets and those two in turn can open avenues up for Samuel. The former two were over a 10.0 aDOT while Samuel was around 8.8. It’s not crazy to wonder if CMC sees a slight downturn in targets.

You of course don’t want to overreact to Week 1, but the Bucs held the Saints receivers to 53 yards. Michael Thomas didn’t get hurt that early to explain that. It was one of the more surprising developments when compared to the 2019 performance. I believe all three are in play in GPP since they all played at least 74% of the snaps and would rank them as they are in salary.

TE – Ian Thomas was on the field like you’d want but the production didn’t follow. He only carved out two targets and none came in the end zone. The only three end zone targets were divided up to the trio of wide receivers. If Thomas is going to be fifth in the passing tree, there’s no reason to roster him even though the Bucs gave up 80 yards to the tight ends on Sunday.

D/ST – No, no thank you. Barley a 10% pressure rate, no sacks and no turnovers. There’s a reason they spent their draft on this side of the ball. They also had multiple defensive players get ruled out, so a poor unit got worse.

Buccaneers

QB – Is it a little odd that I don’t love Tom Brady at this price? He was fine Sunday, but the lack of game action was evident at some points. The Mike Evans injury certainly didn’t help him at all, but being on target for just 74.3% of his throws is very un-Brady like. That was just 19th on the week and Brady was ranked fifth in bad throws. His fantasy game was fine in part because of a QB sneak for a score, but that’s not what you want to bank on. I will only play Brady in GPP as this offense evolves and he gets better in it. The Panthers only allowed 239 yards passing but that might be more because they got hammered in the run game again.

RB – If Ronald Jones gets another 19 touches in this game, he could really go off. Carolina gave up the seventh-most rushing yards and was the only team to allow three touchdowns. Jones was only on the field for about 45% of the snaps but Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy combined for seven total touches. Jones even got three red zone attempts and everything lines up for him to smash this weekend, provided he’s allowed the same volume. I believe you can use him in cash but you shouldn’t with how the slate shapes up. He’s a dynamite GPP play.

WR – It’s still tough sledding in the Tampa wide receiver room. Chris Godwin is in the concussion protocol and Mike Evans still isn’t practicing in full yet. Now, Evans played so many snaps in New Orleans that I’m not sweating him yet. I do have worries about timing and chemistry with Brady, but not really the hammy at this point. Godwin is a different story. Thursday will tell us a good bit, but concussion protocol is tough to predict.

Regardless of these two players, Scotty Miller looks like a bargain yet again. He co-led the team in targets with Godwin and played over 61% of the snaps. He’s barely over the $4,000 mark and only needs 6/60 to pay it off at a 3x multiplier. He did that last week and it’s not hard to see Miller being a legit part of this offense after getting strong praise all of camp.

*Update* Godwin is still in concussion protocol so I would proceed as if he will be out Sunday. Both Evans (who is reportedly over his hamstring injury) and Miller take a step up.

*Update Two* Godwin is doubtful, so add Miller to the list of receivers we want a piece of.

TE – The tight end spot is a perfect example of Week 1 being noisy. On the one hand, Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard each played at least 53% of the snaps with Howard finishing with six targets to Gronk’s three. Howard also got two looks in the red zone and reeled in one for the touchdown. Is that because Evans wasn’t involved as much with only five targets? Is this real? With Evans playing mostly the entire game, I have to wonder if Howard is legitimately going to be a thing in this offense. The prices are about equal and I might want to take some shots with Howard more than Gronkowski. There could be quite a few games like this for him all year.

D/ST – It’s a somewhat interesting spot for the Bucs. They generated the 12th highest pressure rate in Week 1, no mean feat against Drew Brees. They didn’t finish them off with sacks but they seemingly have that potential. They also didn’t force a turnover but this is a unit that has talent up front. They could be a problem against lesser quarterbacks than Brees. I still prefer other options, but am interested to see how they play in this game.

Cash – Miller, RoJo

GPP – Brady, Evans, Howard

Broncos at Steelers, O/U of 41.5 (Steelers -7.5)

Broncos

QB – I’m going to pass on Drew Lock in almost any format this week. If you run 150 lineups, throw him in one or two since nobody will play him. I actually don’t think he played horribly on Monday Night without Courtland Sutton, but this will be his seventh game started ever. The Steelers got a massive 42.6% pressure rate and blitzed a league-leading 57.4% of the time. I feel like Lock may hit a long pass to Sutton for a big play once or twice but he’s going to make some errors as well.

RB – I’ll go one step further than Lock with Melvin Gordon – not in any lineups. The Steelers utterly dominated the Giants running game on Monday night, allowing seven rushing yards. That’s a 7, as in less than eight. Obviously that’s not sustainable, but there’s no reason to play Gordon when the Steelers were a top half team against the run last year. They’re healthier this year and even if Phillip Lindsay is out with turf toe, I won’t play Gordon.

*Update* Lindsay is out and it hasn’t changed my mind at all

WR – At a guess, I would say Sutton plays this week. He got in a limited practice on Wednesday and that’s a very positive sign. I’m still not going to be very interested. AC joint injuries can be a tough one for receivers to deal with. Add in he’s drawing a good secondary and it’s tough to make a strong case for him at the salary. You’d be hoping for the home run ball that Darius Slayton got Monday. That’s possible with the blitz rate, but there are better plays on paper.

I would still be sort of interested in Jerry Jeudy if Sutton is in. Once he’s in, he has to be respected and that means coverages are played differently. Jeudy could have had a bigger game but dropped a couple of passes. That’s way out of character for him. The fact he was targeted eight times bodes well, even with Sutton back. He played just under 75% of the snaps and is still on the radar for GPP.

TE – Pittsburgh was able to mostly erase Evan Engram Monday and this is after a season they were mostly strong against the tight end. They were top 10 in receptions and yards allowed, but one area they struggled was touchdowns. They were tied for fourth in touchdowns surrendered with eight. It’s not a great idea to predict touchdowns from year to year for any position, but you could build a case for Noah Fant. He was right behind Jeudy in targets and cashed in his red zone target for a score. Just like Jeudy, Sutton being back is a net positive. He pus stress on the defense and could allow more seams for Fant to take advantage of.

D/ST – They played the Titans tough, but I generally don’t play defenses against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They did manage to get pressure on the QB 22% of the time even missing Von Miller, but the Steelers offense started to click the later Monday’s game went. They’re not cheap enough for the gamble in my eyes.

Cash – None

GPP – Fant, Jeudy, Sutton

Steelers

QB – I have to be a fan for a second and say how happy I was to see Ben Roethlisberger back in action. He warmed to the task after shaking off some rust and looked mostly pretty sharp. His ball placement was solid for the most part and he has plenty of weapons in the passing game. As the Steelers get deeper into the season, Ben should get unleashed even more.

He was only 19th in intended air yards per attempt, which shouldn’t be a big surprise. Find the rhythm first, then cut it loose. The good news is he was on target 83.9% of the time, sixth-best in Week 1. If/when he starts pushing the ball downfield a little more, that’s going to be some big fantasy numbers. If Denver gave up 249 and two touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill, the ceiling is higher for Big Ben.

RB – So I was excited for the Big Ben writeup but I’m rolling my eyes right now. James Conner left last week with a sprained ankle and did not practice Monday. The local media is saying that A. they think he’ll play as of Wednesday and B. if he plays, he’s starting. All I will say is the leash had better be pretty short because Conner was severely outplayed by Benny Snell.

Conner had eight total touches and totaled 17 yards. He had a 1.5 YPC. Snell came in and ripped off 113 yards on 19 carries for 5.9 YPC while not catching a pass. This is the eye test, but #BennySnellFootball was running to win a job Monday. He was excellent and was credited with three broken tackles, tied for third-most. He’s not going to be a plus in the passing game (the Steelers like Jaylen Samuels in that facet) but 15-20 rush attempts in the Steelers offense is worth FAR more than $4,500. If Conner plays, I’d have a couple Snell lineups just in case.

*Update* Conner is not listed on the injury report, so Snell is out for cash. I stand by playing him in MME formats.

WR – Neither JuJu Smith-Schuster nor Diontae Johnson practiced Wednesday but that’s of no consequence to me. Johnson might be one of my favorite values of the receivers on this slate. He saw 10 targets Monday, most on the team by a lot. While he didn’t get a red zone look, Ben only threw five passes in that zone. Johnson seemed to take minute to shake off an early fumble and get on the same page with Ben but he racked up easy receptions and yards as the game went.

Smith-Shuster had himself a game with two touchdowns, caching all six targets thrown his way. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with playing him and I might double stack both these wideouts with Ben in a few lineups. However, I’ll opt for the savings of Johnson overall. James Washington played 37 snaps to 17 for Chase Claypool, but neither player should be relied upon for anything past a dart throw. They only combined for five targets.

TE – I’ll admit, I fell for it. I was super pumped for the Eric Ebron signing this offseason. Pittsburgh never goes real deep into the free agency waters but I felt like Ebron was a great match for Ben in the red zone. That may still be tru this year, but he only saw two total targets and not one where it mattered most. Vance McDonald had the same amount of targets, got a red zone look and Ebron only played two more snaps. It’s a situation that’s likely best to avoid for now with Vance being a super cheap hope for a TD.

D/ST – If you want to pay up for the Steelers defense, there’s nothing wrong with it. This is a spot where they can get pressure on a very inexperienced quarterback and rack up points. It’s going to be a very positive game script for them if Denver has to chase points. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are two of my top three high end options this week.

Cash – Big Ben, Johnson, JuJu, D/ST

GPP – Conner, Snell (avoid both if not MME)

Falcons at Cowboys, O/U of 52.5 (Cowboys -4.5)

Falcons

QB – It wasn’t exactly by design but Matt Ryan had himself a monster of a game this past week. He leads the league in yards, completions and attempts and this game shapes up to be very similar from a volume standpoint. Atlanta’s defense did not look good at all and this game is a projected shootout. The Seahawks only got pressure on him 19% of the time and Dallas only had an 11.8% pressure rate in the first game. Ryan has some serious receivers at his disposal, likely needs to put up a lot of points and may not get pressured to throw him off his groove. This game is only one of two with an O/U above 50 on the main slate. Game. On.

RB – It seems a lot of the issues that Todd Gurley had last season have followed him, at least judging by the first week. He scored the first TD and things were looking great. The the rest of the game happened and he produced very little. He was under 50% of the snaps which was partly due to game script, but garnering two receptions for a yard isn’t a good look.

The targets were there at six, which was the second most after 12 a piece for the top three receivers. I will admit a bit of a blind spot with Gurley since I didn’t play him virtually at all last year, but he wouldn’t be heavy in my player pool even with the Rams running backs playing well last week against Dallas.

WR – So can someone tell me why Julio Jones went for 9/157/0 and his price went down?? Sure, he’s still not cheap and never will be but the price going down $300 is just non-sensical. Julio is always in play and this week is not any different.

Calvin Ridley isn’t that far behind in salary and he shouldn’t be. Is he living a bit of a charmed life playing next to Julio? Sure but he’s making the absolute most of it. He’s now played 30 career games and scored a ridiculous 19 times. Julio had the highest aDOT of 15.7 but Ridley was at a healthy 11.8 himself. Just like last week, if Ryan doesn’t get pressured the receivers could both have a monster day. Not to be forgotten is Russell Gage. He also got 12 targets and played just about 70% of the snaps. He continues to be an underrated PPR player and the salary is excellent in this game script again.

TE – It was not a good debut for Hayden Hurst. While many felt that he might be the Austin Hooper replacement but he only saw five targets in his first game as a Falcon. That’s really not going to get it done. With Gage playing just seven fewer snaps, he’s a real threat to Hurst’s target share. The aDOT for both players was a near identical 7.6 for Hurst and 7.4 for Gage. If they’re playing about the same role in the offense, I’d side with Gage at this point.

D/ST – I was a little surprised to see that the Falcons ended with the fourth-highest pressure rate, over 30%. That didn’t do much for the fantasy production since they only turned it into three sacks, no turnovers and giving up 38 points. Dallas didn’t show a ton on offense on the scoreboard Sunday night but I’m believing that changes this week.

Cash – Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Gage

GPP – Hurst, Gurley

Cowboys

QB – It was an average night at the office for Dak Prescott on Sunday, but talk about a bounce back spot. Russell Wilson just scorched this Atlanta defense for over 300 yards on 31-of-35 throwing and added in 29 yards rushing. Prescott has that same style of upside here, even down to the rushing ability if the Falcons continue to get pressure. The price is high at the QB4 in salary, but it’s completely justified. The Falcons gave up the most DK points to the quarterback in the first week and they could easily add to that this week.

RB – It’s certainly no surprise to see Ezekiel Elliott standing at the fifth-most carries after one week and he’s one of five backs to carry the ball 20+ times. He even kicked in five targets and caught three of them for an additional 31 yards. That’s going to be key with the passing game as crowded as it is. Zeke had jus four red zone rushes and still put up over 27 DK points. Atlanta was an oddball in Week 1. They only gave up 43 yards on the ground but got hit twice through the air for scores by Chris Carson. I do prefer a couple other options in this range, but you can almost never go wrong with Zeke and the volume will always be there.

WR – Prescott went to Amari Cooper early and often in the first game, targeting Cooper 15 times. That was third-most in the NFL and Cooper might be a little too cheap here. I don’t particularly expect him to maintain a 37.5% target share but he’s at home against a bad secondary. You could do a lot worse in this range and if he gets even 8-10 targets, he’s a threat to be a slate-breaking play.

The bigger question is who do we target as a secondary play (you could take the Atlanta Week 1 route and go triple stack but it’s quite risky) and I lean CeeDee Lamb. He was only 10 snaps behind Michael Gallup and they drew the same amount of targets. He played almost exclusively in the slot and ran 40 routes. With tight end Blake Jarwin on IR, Lamb should be an even bigger part of the game plan. He’s with Johnson as my favorite cheap receivers and I think he winds up chalky this week in cash, but we’ll see.

TE – Pour one out for my man Jarwin. He had some sleeper hype around him but tore his ACL fairly early. That’s a true bummer and hopefully he has a speedy recovery. That leaves Dalton Schultz as the starter, but he’s going to be fifth on the target tree. There’s a host of cheaper tight ends that I would rather play.

D/ST – The Cowboys had the third-worst pressure rate of Week 1 and created one turnover. While Matty Ice and the Falcons can give up sacks, I would really rather find $100 to play the Rams defense.

Cash – Dak, Zeke, Cooper, Lamb

GPP – Gallup

Vikings at Colts, O/U of 48.5 (Colts -3)

Vikings

QB – The results were good for Kirk Cousins, but it took a blowout to get him there. That shouldn’t be a surprise since Minnesota finished 30th in passing attempts last year and threw under 30 times per contest. Even in this game, Cousins threw it just 25 times, tied for third-least among starters.

He threw for two touchdowns and a two point conversion which somewhat bailed him out, but we look for volume. He’s under $6,000 but he’s not one of the prime targets in that range. If the Vikings have their way, he might throw it 20 times and run the ball 40 times.

RB – The Colts gave up just 62 yards on the ground, but there’s a pretty significant gap in talent between Jaguars running back James Robinson and Vikings running back Dalvin Cook. The latter didn’t even get a lot going on the ground Sunday and the Vikes fought an uphill battle all game. Still, he had 13 touches and ran in a two pointer. He also got three rushes in the red zone. This game should stay closer and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with playing Cook. I prefer Henry and might prefer another back later on, but Cook is still a strong option.

WR – It’s fairly difficult to get excited for any receiver outside of Adam Thielen. He sucked up 35% of the targets and no other receiver saw more than three total. Thielen racked up a 17.9 aDOT on top of the target share, making him the man to play from this group.

Both Justin Jefferson and Olabisi Johnson played under 70% of the snaps in the best game script possible for them. I don’t think I can make a strong case for either with the other values at the position.

TE – The tandem of Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith both were right about 60% of the snaps, which is solid. The bad news is neither saw a red zone target nor did either see more than two targets. The Colts ranking against the tight end is irrelevant given their matchup last week and both these options are super cheap.

This is a good spot to fall back onto last season to get a better idea of what we should expect. Both payers were right about a 12% target share and they are still replacing Stefon Diggs’ 96 targets. Now the joke is they’re just going to run the ball an extra 80 times but that’s obviously not the case. Rudolph is a pretty solid value here but I can’t say he’s a favorite for me personally.

D/ST – Indy only gave up one sack in the first game and that’s not a shock given their offensive line. The Vikings really struggled to get pressure without Danielle Hunter, generating a second-worst 9.1% pressure rate. They did turn the ball over twice but I just don’t expect the pressure to be there and we certainly shouldn’t trust those corners as the Packers showed us.

Cash – Cook, Thielen

GPP – Cousins, Rudolph

Colts

QB – The Colts wound up being tied for the second-most passing attempts, which was certainly surprising. They also lost the game when they were supposed to roll so those were likely related. Despite the attempts, Rivers finished with just the 10th most intended air yards and that’s likely because he continued to pepper his backs with targets. Rivers was also on target 82.6% of the time, 11th best in Week 1. There’s not a lot of reason to dislike Rivers here. If he gets even 35 attempts, he shouldn’t have much of an issue paying off. That’s especially true if he’s not pressured at all.

RB – Welcome to Jonathan Taylor Chalk Week and if you play cash, you set him and forget it. I’m lifting this right from Ghost in our Discord – after Marlon Mack got injured, Taylor had 10 carries (one called back due to penalty) to just two for Nyheim Hines. Each player touched the ball 15 times total, with Taylor being the main guy after the Mack injury. This is highly encouraging to me and with a full week to integrate Taylor (and remember, no preseason), he’s going to be the chalk for good reason.

NOW, that is not to say that Hines is not in play himself by ANY means. My love for Taylor is not putting down Hines, who had a lot of red zone work and is a dynamite PPR asset. Both players had two red zone targets but Hines did have four red zone rushes. Do I expect that to continue? No, but Hines can still definitely hit 3x at his salary. Rivers targeted running backs with 17 of his 46 attempts. Some old dogs don’t learn new tricks. Taylor is the cash play as of now, Hines is perfectly suited for GPP.

WR – Oh look, another receiver value. Really, you could say that both T.Y. Hilton and Paris Campbell are values. Hilton led the Colts with nine targets but Campbell had eight. The latter played almost every single snap out of the slot as well, which is going to be great for his stock. Rivers tends to like passing to the slot and Minnesota has issues at corner if Week 1 is an indication.

The funny part is these players had an identical aDOT of 11.4 so they both have potential upside in this matchup. At the prices, I would prefer Campbell but there’s a very interesting route in GPP where you fade the backs and play both these receivers. Having near 20% of the target share is plenty to support both in the right spot.

TE – I really though Jack Doyle would play a big role and at least through one week, that’s not going to happen. Frankly, if the backs account for 37% of the targets and Hilton and Campbell are at about 40%, Doyle is really going to be fighting for the scraps. He hasn’t practiced so far this week either, so he could miss this game. If that’s the case, I would pass on this position myself. I’m not falling for the Mo Alie-Cox play.

*Update* Doyle is out which could shift even more to Campbell

D/ST – I am slightly interested here. The Colts didn’t do much on the turnover department, but they did get home on the QB four times and created the third-best pressure rate of 32.1%. What’s impressive about that is they managed it on the lowest blitz rate in football at just 10.7%. If you love the rest of your lineup, I could live with the play.

Cash – Taylor, Campbell, Rivers, Hines (would likely just do GPP since JT should be chalk)

GPP – Hilton, D/ST

Bills at Dolphins, O/U of 41 (Bills -5.5)

Bills

QB – Only Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers scored more DK points than Josh Allen in the first week. Even then, Allen was within 1.2 points of the top score. We saw everything that makes him a fantasy dynamo Sunday with 57 rushing yards (14 attempts, three of which were scrambles) and a score. He even fumbled two times and still scored 33.2 DK. He set career marks in attempts and yardage, including the third-best on target rate in Week 1. Yes, it was the Jets defense but we could be seeing what happens when he has an alpha receiver.

What is going to be super interesting is to see how much of the field plays him against Prescott and Ryan. Those QB’s are $100 in either direction and that game is about 10 points higher for the O/U and a projected shootout. Allen has an incredible ceiling, draws a Dolphins defense that gave up 75 rush yards and two scores to Cam Newton and will likely not be popular. He’s a perfect GPP choice and is quite safe for cash.

RB – Well, it seems that some of my fears with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss were correct. The former out-touched the latter 14-12 but what is scary is the red zone work. Moss got eight red zone carries and two targets, while Singletary was at three targets and one rush. With Allen there to poach touchdowns as well, it’s really hard to see ceiling for either back here. If we’re going to play one, I would lean Moss since he has the best chances at a touchdown based on what we know. Singletary only playing 12 more snaps isn’t enough to counter the red zone work for Moss.

WR – The prices might hold me back overall, but Stefon Diggs and John Brown both looked great in their first game as a tandem. They each had double-digit targets and were above 20% of the share The aDOT isn’t going to wow you from game one at right about 10 yards, but both players have the speed to burn every corner in football. The matchups don’t look spectacular with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the other side. They would be GPP only and I’m really curious to see if Allen is going to continue to throw as much.

TE – Dawson Knox may yet break out, but I’m not sure this is the year for it. He’s dealing with Diggs, Brown, Cole Beasley, his own quarterback who scores rushing touchdowns….it’s a rough outlook for Knox. He only saw two targets on Sunday and he’s going to be the definition of TD or bust almost every week.

D/ST – We talked about Pittsburgh as elite defense and Buffalo has to be up there as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an interception machine with 28 over his past 24 games. The Bills blitzed at the third-highest rate and even though Miami gave up just one sack last week, Buffalo can really create havoc here.

Cash – Allen, D/ST

GPP – Diggs, Brown, Moss

Dolphins

QB – If I think Buffalo is going to be a good matchup for the defense, that means I’m not going to be crazy about Fitzpatrick here. He might be one of the cheapest starters on the board but there’s reasons for that. He ranked 27th in on target throws last week with just 70%. The Beard was also only 20th in intended air yards, so it’s not like he was throwing it all over the yard. He has the bad luck of playing New England and Buffalo right out of the gate, and there’s no reason to go this route.

RB – There’s likely a chance that Myles Gaskin hits the technical 3x value at his price, but I’m not sure there’s a grosser play this side of the Jets. He played 62% of the snaps last week while Matt Breida was at 22% and Jordan Howard was at 14%. Buffalo only allowed 46 rushing yards, the fourth-fewest in the league. Gaskin did finish third on the team in targets with four, but I just have no interest in this play with so much other value on the slate that I actually like.

WR – To add to Fitzpatrick’s bad spot, DeVante Parker is questionable with a bad hamstring. That’s not doing anyone any favors and one of he or Preston Williams has to go up against Bills corner Tre White on most plays. White didn’t travel a lot but he is capable so if Parker is out, expect Williams to see a ton of White. Parker only played 37% of the snaps last week while Williams was over 90% and he had a 14.0 aDOT. It’s great to see Williams is recovered from the ACL, but this isn’t the spot for either player.

*Update* Parker is questionable, and lowers any minor interest I May have had

TE – My man Mike Gesicki was quiet last week and the road doesn’t get easier this week. After finishing 2019 giving up the second-fewest yards to tight ends, Buffalo allowed under 40 yards in Week 1. Gesicki had an aDOT of almost 11.0 and he and Williams each had a red zone target. Since he’s occupying the slot so much and garnering a 17% target share, he’s still well in play and will be quite stealthy if he goes off. I don’t think he’ll be $4,000 very often this year.

D/ST – I was on Miami as a salary saving defense last week and they’re plenty cheap again his week. I just don’t have near the confidence in using them. Allen can turn the ball over but the Dolphins couldn’t handle Cam on the ground. I don’t think they can handle Allen and he has better receivers than Cam does. There, I said it.

Washington at Cardinals, O/U of 47.5 (Cardinals -6.5)

Washington

QB – Based on one game, it doesn’t look like Dwayne Haskins would get the volume he’d need to be usable for fantasy. What’s interesting is the game really didn’t go how many thought. Washington got down by 17, but Philly never scored after that so Haskins only threw it 31 times. He was 19th in intended air yards which isn’t spectacular and he finished 30th in on target throws with just 63.3%.

I’m slightly surprised they didn’t use a little more play action passing with a young quarterback and a commitment to the run game. Washington finished with tied for the fourth-most rushing attempts but Haskins used play action just seven times. The game script should lead to more volume and Arizona finished with the fifth-least time between snaps last week. Haskins settles in as someone I’m not interested in, but the price could lead to a super cheap 16-18 DK if it goes right.

RB – It was a big disappointment to see rookie Antonio Gibson only play 18 snaps, just 25%. I’m not sure there’s any question already about who has the most natural talent in this backfield. Sure, Gibson didn’t light the world on fire but 44 total yards on 11 touches isn’t the worst against that Philly run defense. I mean, Peyton Barber averaged 1.7 yards on 17 carries. He got bailed out by two touchdowns on a ridiculous 10 red zone carries. J.D. McKissic played the most snaps at 31 and turned that into four touches for -1 yard.

Something has to give in this backfield. Gibson is a player we want to be on the front side of his big game, and 49ers just had their backs go for 162 receiving yards against Arizona. Yes, Raheem Mostert broke off a 75 yard reception but that’s still 87 other receiving yards. If you play anyone, it’s Gibson. He will have zero buzz after last week but even he is GPP only.

WR – In the same boat as being surprised at Haskins, seeing Terry McLaurin finish third in air yards on his own team also is weird. He did at least score the second-most targets on the team and led in receptions. He did see a red zone look and it’s impossible to judge how Arizona looks against wide receiver since San Francisco didn’t have any last week. Seriously, receivers against Arizona totaled 41 yards in Week 1.

Steven Sims was a security blanket type of option in the offense since he only had an aDOT of 5.0 but he also only saw three targets. When he’s more expensive than MVS, Diontae Johnson, Paris Campbell and even Brandon Aiyuk, I can’t build any case for Sims.

TE – If you pay down at tight end, you’re looking at Chris Herndon with no Jamison Crowder or you’re looking directly a Logan Thomas. He led the team in targets and total air yards and scored a TD on top of everything else. With Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis out of town, there was some noise from camp that Thomas was taking over that spot. He sure lived up to it in Week 1 and his price didn’t crack $4,000 yet. We may not get many weeks to take advantage of that. Only Hunter Henry, Evan Engram and Dallas Goedert finished with more targets at the tight end position. I prefer Thomas to Herndon this week, but it is close.

D/ST – They’re still in play, but I’m not stumping for them like I did last week. Washington took advantage of the big mismatch in the trenches with the Philly O-Line in shambles. They generated the fifth-highest pressure rate last week while blitzing 34% of the time. They also lead the league with eight sacks and got three turnovers, but there’s a massive difference in this matchup this week.

Cash – Thomas

GPP – Gibson, McLaurin, Haskins

Cardinals

QB – That difference is Kyler Murray. Whereas Carson Wentz scrambled zero times, Kyler led the league with seven in Week 1 and racked up just about 90 rushing yards off those plays. Washington is going to have to be exceptionally disciplined in their rushing lanes to contain him and I just don’t think they do it for 60 minutes. Murray leads the league in rushing yards for quarterbacks and he very well might add to it this week.

Oh, and he passes the ball too! Wentz had trouble getting to the secondary of Washington but make no mistake, that’s still a weak spot. Murray was not super accurate for on target throws last week but the 49ers defense is good on all levels. The matchup gets easier this week and Murray still completed 65% of his passes. He only threw one red zone pass but did complete it. That was an area he struggled with his rookie season. The rushing yards are a cheat code and Murray is FAR too cheap this week.

RB – Even with some injury concerns in camp, Kenyan Drake will continue to be the man for Arizona. He played over 70% of the snaps and handled 18 touches, which was fantastic to see. He was able to rack up 14.5 DK points with only one red zone rushing attempt and two targets, so the ceiling is sky high. The fact he’s under $6,000 and everyone is flocking to Jonathan Taylor in that price range could leave him as a fabulous GPP target.

This is absolutely just an MME play, but Chase Edmonds had a role in this backfield as well. The snaps weren’t super high at just around 30% but he still had almost double-digit touches. I don’t think this is quite a Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt situation, but it might not be far from it. If Arizona plays at such a high pace all year, the touches are there to go around and Edmonds is talented.

WR – If there’s one thing we learned for sure the first week, it’s that Murray really like throwing to DeAndre Hopkins. Only Davante Adams had more targets and the 16 Nuk saw was a massive 43.2% target share. That number actually beat Adams by about 3% and the aDOT leads us to believe he’ll be a PPR asset. It was only 6.1 in the opening week and he’s going to catch a boatload of passes. Nuk could have approached the 40 DK mark had he not been dragged down at the half yard line last week. If you pay up at WR, I believe Adams is the very slightly better play. Murray’s scrambling ability could cost Nuk a couple extra receptions.

Christian Kirk had a terrible results game with just one reception for five yards but he was targeted five times at a team-leading 13.5 aDOT. If Murray can evade pressure, he might be able to make Washington pay with deep completions where the Eagles could not last week. Goodness knows they tried to hit deep passes all day long. Larry Fitzgerald is just a guy at this point and there’s better values out there, as much as that hurts to say.

TE – The next time the Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury uses the tight end in a fantasy relevant way will be the first. Let’s keep trucking.

D/ST – At the prices, I would rather just play the Washington defense. I don’ have a huge issue with the Cards but their upside doesn’t match Washington and their front. They’re a defense that falls into the “facing a questionable quarterback with limited weapons” category. Those types of defenses can always end at the top of a slate but I would prefer others.

Cash – Kyler, Nuk, Drake

GPP – Kirk, Edmonds

Chiefs at Chargers, O/U of 47.5 (Chiefs -8.5)

Chiefs

QB – The defending Super Bowl champs are coming off an extended rest and Patrick Mahomes should be the QB2 in salary. He threw for three touchdowns in a game where it didn’t feel like the Chiefs offense ever needed to get out of second gear. Mahomes was fifth in on target passes in Week 1 and only had 147 intended air yards. When a QB has that few air yards but still scores over 20 DK, you know where the ceiling lies. Plus, it’s Mahomes. The only real question is can the Chargers mount enough offense to force the ceiling game from Mahomes? I tend to think no and prefer some others, but we know he’s in play 16 weeks out of the season.

RB – Welcome to the NFL, Clyde Edwards-Helaire! The rookie out of LSU was dominant in his first action at this level and he led all running backs in yards and finished second in attempts and red zone attempts. If nay-sayers want to criticize he didn’t score from close range, that’s on them. The fact they gave a rookie that workload (even in a game that was out of reach) is impressive. The Darrel Williams role was overblown with just 33% of the snaps and nine touches. Most of them came early, as well. CEH only saw two targets and that’s a facet he should excel in. He’s a top five option for running backs on this slate.

WR – Find yourself someone that loves you like Sammy Watkins loves Week 1 of an NFL season. He went off again for the second year in a row but it’s going to be tough to peg each week which receiver we want. Watkins, Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson are all in the mix every single game. No player had an aDOT over 7.2 for Hill, and no player had more than nine targets (Watkins).

Hill and Watkins played the majority of the snaps while Robinson played under 50% and had a couple drops, or at least didn’t come down with catchable passes. Seeing how the strength of the Chargers defense is corner, I would settle with Watkins since he’s under $5,000. Hill is always a deep threat and no Derwin James ups the chance he hits a home run in this game. Still, Watkins is a great way to get access to this passing game on the cheap.

TE – If you’re going the expensive route, I’d go Travis Kelce before I went Hill. The aforementioned loss of James is a huge blow in containing Kelce. Since James has been drafted in 2018, Kelce has games of 6, 24, 61 and 92 receiving yards. He’s scored once in those four games. With James on the sideline, the task gets far more difficult for the Chargers to contain him. Kelce tied Watkins for the most red zone targets with three, and that finished second among tight ends.

D/ST – If the Chiefs can replicate the 45% pressure rate from their first game, I love them in this spot. Chargers center Mike Pouncey is done for the season and the Chargers gave up two sacks to the Bengals. With Chris Jones and Frank Clark up front, this could be a big mismatch with the big uglies. The other tope end defenses will likely be more popular as well.

Cash – Mahomes, CEH, Kelce

GPP – Watkins, Hill, Robinson

Chargers

QB – I’m not here to claim I’m the sharpest NFL mind around, but can someone explain to me why in the world Tyrod Taylor had the fifth-highest intended air yards last week? He hasn’t played in almost two full seasons. His best weapons are Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler as far as moving the ball. So he threw it downfield and finished 27th in on target throw% while putting up no points. Isn’t there a time when you have to change the game plan up a little? Alright, I digress.

As far as this matchup goes, there’s certainly some upside as far as game script goes. The Chiefs are one of the biggest favorites on the slate and Taylor should have to throw more than the 30 times he did last week. With there being so much value, I feel like these lower-end QB’s are going to go Everly overlooked and could be a great way to get different. Garbage time counts too.

RB – What a weird day for Ekeler. He was the most dangerous receiving back outside of CMC last year and he got all of ONE target on Sunday. Just. One. Now the very positive news is he got 19 rushing attempts, tied for sixth-most in Week 1. That’s great and it’s the volume you want to see rushing, but the Chargers have to get this guy involved in the passing game. He racked up 993 receiving yards last year, 31st in the NFL among all players! He led the league in broken tackles on receptions. It was just bizarre usage and going right back to the well makes plenty of sense.

This likely isn’t the game for him, but keep an eye on Joshua Kelly. He earned 12 rushing attempts on just 18 snaps, ripping off a healthy 5.0 YPC and cashing in a score. He seem in line to be a 2019 Melvin Gordon type player, where he still gets double-digit rushes per game and gets red zone work. He out-numbered Ekeler 6-3 in red zone rushes.

WR – Taylor really did love him some Mike Williams on Sunday. Williams was unsure if he’d play but wound up with the 13th highest aDOT in Week 1 and led the Chargers in targets with 10. If he’s getting even 60% of that role every week, there’s going to be points with he would destroy the $4,200 price tag. He’s always going to be just a GPP player for me with his QB, but the price is tantalizing in this game.

I wonder if Allen gets passed over this week. Since the results really weren’t there, folks may not remember he still got targeted eight times and had a 10.5 aDOT himself. He saw a red zone target and even if the Chiefs drop down Honey Badger into the slot to cover him, volume alone could get him there. He’s not one of my top plays, but I get the logic as well.

TE – Much like Williams, Hunter Henry was a target magnet with nine and three of those came in the red zone. He was also third on the team in aDOT so he could be a major focal point again. With almost a third of the target share and the Chiefs giving up a touchdown to the position makes him very interesting. I wonder if anyone really looks his way with Dallas Goedert right below him in salary. I have eyes on either high end or low end, which means Henry is likely a solid GPP target.

D/ST – Nope. Moving on.

Cash – None for me

GPP – Allen, Williams, Ekeler, Henry, Taylor

Ravens at Texans, O/U of 51.5 (Ravens -7)

Ravens

QB – As is the normal anymore, Lamar Jackson is the top QB as far as salary. Sticking with the same pattern of the last 18 or so weeks, Jackson is well in play. He racked up over 27 DK points and he sat out a chunk of the fourth quarter (again). Jackson was ninth in on target throws and 17th in intended air yards. There’s not much of a reason to feel uncomfortable playing him. He’s a threat to throw for three or more scores any time and a threat to rush for over 100 yards. He’s not a much for cash but if you love the lineup and have the money, you can spend it on Jackson.

RB – Now we get to the messy part of the Ravens offense. We have to weigh the blowout, but the trio of Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards all played between 23 and 15 snaps. That’s…not good for fantasy. Ingram and Dobbins both had two red zone rushes each and Dobbins cashed both his in for scores. No back recorded a target, which is maddeningly unhelpful. With so many great plays at running back, I’m not super interested in wading into this mess. If you had to play one of them, I’d go with Dobbins.

WR – The only receiver I want from this group is the same one I played last week – Marquise Brown. He was a monster last week with an 18.8 aDOT and 18.1 DK points. That came without a score and no red zone looks is about the only thing missing from his Week 1 resume. Brown led in targets and his speed makes him so difficult to defend every play. His price came up by over $1,000 but it was deserved. Willie Snead scored but only saw four targets. Don’t get too attached.

TE – Give me ALL the Mark Andrews again. Loving so many cheap receivers and backs give me an easier route to take to pay up for Andrews. Maybe a mild take, but he’s going to be the TE1 this season. He played 71% of the snaps in a blowout and he tied for the lead all with three inside the 10 yard line targets. With the threat of Jackson and the run game, Andrews is going to be a lethal threat at the goal line and was already an elite tight end with a low snap percentage last year. He’s still far too cheap.

D/ST – Houston had Deshaun Watson under siege in Week 1 and the Ravens blitzed 54.8% of the time. By contrast, KC only brought a blitz 32.5% of the time and still led the league in pressure rate. We say it all the time that pressure creates mistakes, especially with the corners that Baltimore boasts. Of the four of the top five defenses in salary that I like, I rank them Steelers, Ravens, Bills and the 49ers.

Cash – Jackson, Andrews, Brown, D/ST

GPP – Dobbins, Ingram

Texans

QB – He always bring a high ceiling, but Deshaun Watson is at a price that just doesn’t make me want to play him. You have Big Ben, Murray and Stafford underneath him in salary and they all have a good chance to match or exceed his score. Watson was only 19th in accuracy in Week 1 which makes sense with how much he was pressured. He was a respectable 11th in intended air yards but the Ravens are such a tough matchup. Even going back to last year, they allowed the second-fewest DK points to the position. There’s no reason to head here.

RB – Just like Watson, I like David Johnson but this isn’t the spot for him. He played over 81% of the snaps and touched the ball 14 times in a blowout. That’s great and he’ll be the main man in Houston that we can use at another time. Baltimore did allow 137 rushing yards to the Browns, but the Chubb/Hunt duo is far more dangerous. I will say that Bill O’Brien will continue to run regardless of the score. Just watch some of the third quarter in Kansas City. Still, there’s too many other backs that are far better plays.

WR – If you’re looking for an off the wall volume play, Will Fuller might well be the man for you. Not only did he rack up a 12.8 aDOT, he saw a whopping 10 targets. Watson favored him in a major way and with Hopkins in Arizona, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. Ravens corners Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters are all quite good but they can fall for double moves at times. Fuller still has elite speed and it only takes one play.

Nobody else on the Texans garnered more than four targets, making them tough sells. Randall Cobb let us down big time even though he played almost 80% of the snaps. He only saw three targets total and they were deep into the fourth quarter. Brandin Cooks is still questionable and only played 52% of the snaps in Week 1. I’ll be passing for the most part, with maybe a Fuller share here and there.

TE – If you want a cheap tight end that nobody will play, Jordan Akins is there for you. He converted his one red zone look for a score and played over 80% of the snaps, so the starting gig is his with no doubts. If the corners can hold the receivers in check, this could quietly be a very good game for Akins at his price. Do I wish he got more than two targets? Absolutely, but these are some of the chances you can take in this salary range and GPP.

D/ST – Ha. They play the Ravens.

Cash – None

GPP – Fuller, Akins, Watson

Core Four (Cash Game Focused) – Derrick Henry, Diontae Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Reed (still love Lamb)

Game Stacks

Cowboys/Falcons – Dak, Julio, Zeke, Lamb, Ridley, Cooper, Gage, Ryan

Panthers/Bucs – Brady, Miller, Rojo, CMC, Moore, Anderson, Evans, Howard,

Packers/Lions – Rodgers, Adams, Marvin Jones, Aaron Jones, Stafford, Hockenson

Colts/Vikings – Taylor, Campbell, Thielen, T.Y., Rivers, Hines, Cook

Team Stacks

Chiefs – Mahomes, Kelce, CEH, Watkins, Hill

Ravens – Lamar, Andrews, Brown

Steelers – Big Ben, Johnson, JuJu

Cardinals – Kyler, Nuk, Kirk, Drake

Rams – Goff, Woods, Kupp

Packers/Lions – Rodgers, Adams, Marvin Jones, Aaron Jones, Stafford, Hockenson

Bills – Allen, Diggs, Brown, Moss

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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