NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 17

NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 17

It’s Sunday and you know what that means…Rest In Power Mr. Brodie Lee.

We have the biggest NFL slate of the season ahead of us and this one is a different animal. We’re not only parsing through the matchups and stats like normal, but we’re deciding what backups could be worth playing. Some teams are resting starters, some could rest them mid-game and others are full go. This is a difficult slate in my eyes, as the volatility is cranked to 11. Those factors are very important this week so let’s get right into the work and figure out the paths to take for NFL Game by Game Breakdown Week 17.

Jets at Patriots, O/U of 40 (Patriots -3)

Jets

QB – Sam Darnold is under $5,000 but man is it hard to take him seriously. We have 30 quarterbacks on the slate and can only play one. With an 8:9 TD:INT ratio through 11 games, I’m not sure I can find much of a reason. I suppose I get the logic of just 15 DK points is 3x and the Patriots are 19th in DVOA, but still. I’d almost rather play a backup. That’s not an indictment on Darnold, it’s hating Adam Gase. The 0.32 pDB is 34th in the league and he’s averaging under 12 points per game. There’s some risk here even at the lowest price we can imagine.

RB – We always like some cheap running backs and the fact Frank Gore will miss this game means we have the door open for La’Mical Perine. He had 10 touches in his first game back and that was with Gore hogging 15 touches on his own. New England has fallen all the way to dead last in DVOA against the run so there’s room for Perine to pay off. It would just be very “Jets 2020” to play Perine and see Ty Johnson get the work. Just get Perine 15-20 touches to see what you have.

Well, there’s going to be some text with strikethrough in this article. Perine is now on the Covid list, so Ty Johnson, come on down! You’re the next contestant on “Jets Feature Back Roulette”! In all honesty, Johnson may not be a terrible play. In the one game he got touches, he produced 22 DK. With the Patriots last in DVOA against the run, I can honestly see him being a nice combo with high-priced studs. Josh Adams should serve as the backup, but hasn’t recorded a touch in the past two weeks.

WR – It looks like the Darnold to Jamison Crowder connection is back. This really isn’t just chasing his monster game, Crowder is not nearly expensive enough if he’s getting nine targets a game. In three of the past four, he’s had at least seven and the Patriots defense is not anything super scary. Granted, neither is the Jets offense but Crowder functions extremely well within it. We know he rolls in the slot, about 70% of the time. That leaves him on Jonathan Jones, who has allowed a 68.2% catch rate and a 102.1 passer rating. He’s still pretty cheap after a blowup game last week.

Breshad Perriman didn’t catch one of his six targets and Denzel Mims seems to fade when Darnold plays. I’ll pass on both of them this week. It’s hard enough to play Jets and they are still the worst offense in football.

TE – New York seemed to have remembered that Chris Herndon is on the team as he’s had four targets in each of the last two weeks. It’s too little, too late because there’s no way you can trust his seasonal target share which is still under 8.5%.

D/ST – $2,300 against the Patriots terrible offense? Sign me up. They are a premier punt and have forced 19 turnovers to go with 28 sacks. New England is 28th in points per game and are under 20 per contest.

Cash – Crowder, D/ST, Johnson

GPP – None

Patriots

QB – We’re probably going to see a mix of Cam Newton and Jarret Stidham this week and….I can’t. Cam is only going to be valuable if he scores on the ground mostly and he has a 5:10 TD:INT ratio through 14 games. That is unfathomable in today’s NFL. If he gets yanked, Stidham has been roundly terrible in all of his limited action and the Patriots are not built to pass the ball. Before pitching a quarter of relief, Stidham had 37 career attempts with a 2:3 TD:INT ratio and a completion rate barely above 54%. This situation is gross, no matter who the opponent is.

RB – It appears that Damien Harris could make it back for this game, and he’ll likely be the lead back as he’s rushed 137 times on the season through 10 games. However, the Jets are in the top 10 in DVOA against the run. Harris also only has 19 RZ attempts to 41 for Cam, so the odds of touchdowns are pretty low. If he was to be out, Sony Michel and James White have done little to nothing all season long and I wouldn’t bank on that changing this week.

*Update* Harris has been ruled out for this game.

WR – There’s no receiver worth playing here past maybe a flier on Jakobi Meyers in deep GPP. He does lead the team in target share at 22.6% and air yards share at 34.8% but that’s about where the good metrics stop. He’s only hit 3x at this salary once since Week 10 and his quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league. Meyers will likely spend most of his day against Arthur Maulet who has allowed a 1.70 pPT on 33 targets. Meyers is the preferred option of the passing game but he’s not super appealing.

Damiere Byrd could be on the radar on a smaller slate, but as of now there’s no reason for him. Neither receiver is used in the RZ as they’ve combined for seven targets across 18 combined games. If we felt confident the Pats would trail, maybe there’s an argument. There’s other options even in this price range that are more intriguing.

TE – Devin Asiasi has yet to record a reception and Dalton Keane has three games under his belt this year. Even though the Jets are the stone worst team agains tight ends, the Patriots don’t seem to have anyone to exploit it.

D/ST – They’re on the board because Jets but they’re really expensive. I can’ see myself using them, although they have 20 turnovers forced. The 21 sacks speak loudly and so does the depth they are missing on this side of the ball.

Cash – None

GPP – Meyers, D/ST

Vikings at Lions, O/U of 53.5 (Vikings -6.5)

Vikings

QB – The Vikings can’t make the playoffs but this team is fighting for who has a job there the next season. We should expect full effort and Kirk Cousins has to have our attention. The Lions are putrid at every level of defense and Cousins should be able to do whatever he wants. The only small concern is volume, but if the Vikes can put the boots to this team they’re going to. We’ve talked all year about Cousins having some efficiency with his 0.51 pDB and sitting eighth in touchdowns despite the 17th most passing attempts. For his salary, this is the spot we want to target. Even if he throws 25-28 times, he should hit 3x without much of a fuss. Detroit is dead last in DVOA against the pass.

RB – Talk about doing whatever you want, Dalvin Cook closes the season in the smash spots of smash spots. We don’t have any reason to think he gets under 20 touches in this contest and he destroyed them for 42 DK the first time around. That style of outcome is well in play this week, as Detroit is just 26th in DVOA against the run. They’ve allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to backs and the only argument here is Dalvin gets pulled early. I don’t really expect that so I’m happy to play him.

Very sadly, Cook will not be with the team after a death in the family. Alexander Mattison is still not totally cleared of a concussion so he’s not a lock to play. We could be looking at Mike Boone as a lead back against the Lions at minimum priced and I could be interested at that point. He’ll be in the main Vikings offense and the Lions defense couldn’t stop a college team right now I don’t think.

*Update* Mattison is cleared and ready to go for Sunday. Maybe he’ll be chalk but I’m not sure I want to go after it. We have at least one other back that is cheaper and will have the backfield to himself.

WR – If you don’t think Minnesota has to throw all that much, I’d probably lean Adam Thielen over Justin Jefferson. Neither is a bad play at all but Thielen has every chance to catch at least his 15th touchdown of the year, if not more. They continue to be identical by most metrics. The air yards and targets shares are within 1% of each other, the receptions are only nine apart and the PPR points are only seven apart. The difference is Thielen gets his via touchdowns (14). He’s been targeted 19 times in the EZ this year, tied for the most. Jefferson has the yardage advantage to a major degree but only has eight EZ targets and nine inside the RZ. There’s not a single corner in this secondary that is even average, so I don’t care in the least who lines up on who.

TE – It might be chasing a little bit, but Irv Smith is still too cheap since he’s got the gig to himself. Kyle Rudolph is on the IR and Smith saw nine targets and caught two touchdowns last game. Those outcomes aren’t likely but he’s also still under $4,000 which is a great price for a tight end that can score. I think there might be better values for the projected game script however.

D/ST – I won’t be going to the Vikings when the Jets are cheaper. You could perhaps twist my arm and say the Lions could have a backup, but so do the Patriots. That’s the backup that couldn’t beat out Cam at any point this year. They have forced 20 turnovers but have just 22 sacks. Let’s see who’s playing for the Lions.

Cash – Cousins, Thielen, Jefferson, Mattison

GPP – Smith

Lions

QB – I know that Matthew Stafford wants to play this week but I can’t see why the Lions would let him. He’s beyond banged up with rib, thumb and now ankle injuries. The risk of him getting pulled at some point would seem to be pretty high. He did have an awful game the first matchup with the Vikings with just 10 DK points. To their credit, the Vikings have climbed to 13th in DVOA against the pass which is a big difference from the start of the year. Stafford is just 20th in pDB at 0.43, 24th in points per game, 15th in touchdown passes and 13th in RZ attempts. That’s an awful lot of average for Safford with additional injury risk.

RB – If D’Andre Swift gets full run in this game, he’s going to torch Minnesota. He generated 70 scrimmage yards against a very good front seven last week with a second and third string quarterback. The Vikings do not boast one of the better front seven’s in football and it shows. They are down to 27th in DVOA against the run. I wouldn’t expect another six touchdown day against this defense but we don’t need six. Swift has a layered skill set which is always awesome to target in DFS and has at least three receptions in every game he’s played except one.

WR – I really am looking at Marvin Jones again, even though he flopped badly on Saturday. I simply can’t fathom why he got THREE targets but I think that’s a blip on the radar. He’s been close to a 30% share these past few weeks and the Vikings secondary has matchups he can exploit. I would feel much more comfortable if Stafford was healthy but the salary is too low. He still leads the team in EZ targets and is second only to Hockenson in RZ targets. Cameron Dantzler has allowed a 2.10 pPT and a 112.4 passer rating, so Detroit should wise up and target this man.

We had some interest in Danny Amendola and Mohamed Sanu on the three game slate but on a sprawling one, I’m not going there. They are no better than fourth or fifth in the pecking order for targets after Jones, Swift and Hockenson.

TE – T.J. Hockenson is really the same as he ever was – a safe cash option and really nothing more. He might even be expensive at this point and if Stafford can’t make the game, I would have little interest. When a high end is closing in on $5,000, I want at least 18 DK to play him. Hockenson hasn’t even cleared 17 DK yet at all his year. Minnesota has been solid to the tight ends this year, slightly above average for DK points per game allowed and just five scores.

D/ST – The Lions can’t generate turnovers at just 12 or sacks at 21. That’s not going to do you much good, even at the salary. I’m becoming pretty firm on the Jets in anything under about the $3,000 price range.

Cash – Swift

GPP – Jones

Dolphins at Bills, O/U of 42.5 (Bills -3.5)

Dolphins

QB – The only real choice here has to be Ryan Fitzpatrick. He never really deserved to get benched in the first place and the offense just isn’t as good with Tua under center. This is the kind of cheap player I’m after on this slate. He should be in for the whole game because the easiest way for Miami to clinch a playoff spot is simply win. That’s going to be a big focus and FitzMagic is under $5,500 against a 16th ranked DVOA defense. He already carved them up once this year for 27 DK points and I’m right back to the well here with him. He’s 13th in pDB and first in completion rate under pressure, 58.6%. We’ll see how the other games shake out but he’s a very appealing target.

Covid strikes again. Tua will have to start and my interest level plummets with that. He’s hit 4x at this price range (more of what I want from a cheap quarterback) and just hasn’t been that great for fantasy so far. Tua is just 28th in points per game and 31st in yards per attempt. That’s not good enough for me and I’ll pass. They didn’t want to start him with a playoff berth on the line. That’s not a good endorsement for me to play him.

RB – Welcome back Myles Gaskin. We’ve touched on it before but if the Dolphins have a back that they can use as a workhorse, they’re going to do it. Gaskin played over 75% of the snaps in his return and had 19 touches. Both his touchdowns came on receptions, which is a little weird but he racked up a massive 33.9 DK points. He’s still probably not quite expensive enough, even though he’s not under $6,000 anymore. Buffalo is just 17th in DVOA against the run and Gaskin should once again get all the work he can handle this Sunday. That’s even more true now that Tua is starting.

WR – DeVante Parker is still struggling with a hamstring injury and that’s really got me not looking at him at all. His target share is only 20.8% and the air yards share is under 25%, so there’s nothing overwhelming here. If he’s banged up, I don’t see Miami pushing him to the limits with the playoffs potentially looming next week. I know they need to win for the easy path but the injury management might take the forefront.

If Parker is out, Lynn Bowden is less of a target. We saw last week that Bowden is easier to defend when the receivers aren’t very good around him. That would be the case again, so let’s see how this shakes out on Friday.

*Update* Parker is still limited at practice.

TE – Mike Gesicki came back from missing one game into his normal role as well, being targeted seven times for a 9.4 DK game. I think the fact Fitzpatrick pushes the ball downfield a little more is a big bonus for Gesicki, especially with the receiving corps banged up. His 76.6% route rate is eighth in football and he went scorched Earth on Buffalo in Week 2. Scoring 30 DK in that game is still his high water mark. Buffalo has been hit by the tight end all year with the sixth-most receptions and fourth-most yards. If Parker is out, Gesicki becomes even more of a target.

D/ST – They’re a very good unit but the Buffalo offense is a buzzsaw right now. I won’t play Miami on this slate with so many other spots to pick on.

Cash – Gaskin

GPP – TBD

Bills

QB – I would assume that the Bills will put their best foot forward here to clinch the number two seed. It doesn’t come with a bye week anymore but it’s still nice to be at home until the AFC title game, potentially. That means Josh Allen is in play, just like any other week. He’d be a front-runner for MVP in a lot of years and has accounted for 42 total touchdowns to 15 turnovers. Allen sits fourth in pDB, second in points per game, fifth in touchdown passes, third in yards and second in RZ attempts. The transformation he’s made this year has been stunning and he has among the highest ceilings on the slate, if not the highest. Miami’s defense is very strong, but Allen also hung 37 DK on them the first game.

RB – This continues to be a backfield that I’m not terribly interested in. They split touches and snaps almost literally 50-50 last game and that’s mostly been the story when both are healthy. They kill each other and when guy like Zack Moss scores a touchdown for 12.7 DK, he looks like a bargain. However, the RZ carries are 20 for Devin Singletary, 27 for Moss and 23 for Allen. That’s not leaving either back for a big role, although Moss is three games behind the other two. He remains my favorite if you play one, but neither are really strong targets. Miami has only allowed 1,392 yards even though they rank 23rd in DVOA against the run.

WR – Stefon Diggs is on an absolute tear right now. Since Week 8, he’s not been under seven receptions and has been under 15 DK just once. His last three games have totaled 422 yards and four touchdowns with 30 receptions. He’s one of the best receivers in the league and the Bills are using him as such. Diggs has a 29.9% target share and a 36.0% air yards share. On top of that, he leads the league in receptions and receiving yardage so he’s still priced incredibly low. We typically don’t mess with the Byron Jones and Xavien Howard duo but Diggs is a different player.

Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis could be in play to some extent, but we need the John Brown news first. After we know if he can play, we can figure out the matchups and who we’d want out of this bunch. We now also need Beasley news, as he didn’t practice Thursday.

*Update* Beasley is out for this game but Brown is back in. I don’t think they’ll push him a ton, but he’ll be in line for some snaps to get back into shape before the playoffs get rolling.

TE – One thing that could be overlooked is the increase in the workload for Dawson Knox. One the past four weeks, he has four, four, seven and four targets which is interesting. That’s equated to a 12.3% targets share and the second-most RZ targets on the team. He’s still super cheap and could potentially be a GPP target. Miami has been one of the better teams against tight ends with the seventh-fewest DK points per game allowed and only five touchdowns. Knox is GPP only, but not as thin as he was for most of the year.

D/ST – Buffalo is kind of in no man’s land for me. They’re not super cheap or expensive, but they have generated 22 turnovers and 37 sacks on the year. With all of Tua’s issues so far, turnovers haven’t been one of them. I think we have better point per dollar options.

Cash – Diggs, Allen

GPP – Knox, Brown

Ravens at Bengals, O/U of 44 (Ravens -12.5)

Ravens

QB – Baltimore is another team that will play their starters until the game is won because win and get in is the easiest pathway. That means a full run of Lamar Jackson and if he gets pulled, it’s because he went off and the game is out of reach. Jackson’s down game over the past month has been 22 DK points, which is strong. There’s been some (valid) criticisms of his game this year but when the Ravens needed him most, he’s shown up in spades. He sits third in pDB and seventh in points per game, not too shabby for a “mediocre” season. Among just quarterbacks, he’s taken the lead in carries and yards, with the fourth-most rushing touchdowns and second-most RZ carries. If you spend up, Jackson is one of the primary targets.

RB – I’ll be the first one preaching the gospel about how good J.K. Dobbins is but he’s too expensive on DK. He’s not even being targeted twice per game so far and his value comes totally from rushing yards and touchdowns. That’s a LOT to ask for at this salary as he needs to get to 21 DK. Even with Mark Ingram being totally phased out of the offense, Dobbins is still in a time share with Gus Edwards. He’s yet to clear 15.1 DK in those three weeks with no Ingram nor exceed 15 touches. When a player likely needs two scores to pay off with nothing to fall back on, I’m usually out past MME formats. Even the 20th ranked DVOA against the run isn’t enough to sway me at nearly $7,000.

WR – Marquise Brown always seems so underpriced but he’s probably slightly over, if anything. He and Mark Andrews are the main cogs in this passing game and have target shares right about 24%. Brown easily has the air yards share lead at 37.4% which is always why I want to play him. There’s game-breaking potential somewhere in there. Hollywood is only one EZ target behind Andrews for the team lead, which is nice to see. He’s not the prototypical EZ threat. The matchup with William Jackson is tough on top of it as Jackson is top 20 in catch rate allowed, passer rating and pPT.

The Ravens still have the lowest pass attempts per game in the league, so on a slate this size I won’t turn to low-volume targets like Willie Snead, Dez Bryant or Myles Boykin.

TE – Last week saw Andrews draw double-digit targets for the first time and he’s still underpriced. With at least two of the other big three tight ends potentially not playing much, Andrews might be the most elite target for tight end on the slate. He should be over $6,000 and the Ravens are sure to target him heavily once again this week. Andrews tops out at about a 70% snap share but his 82.4% route rate is all we care about and it’s fifth among tight ends. Cincy has allowed the second-most yards to the position with eight scores and Andrews is a prime option.

D/ST – I wanted to play them until I saw they were $4,200. That’s likely going to be too expensive for my blood although the 44% blitz rate is really tempting. Stix (that goat that he is) had us on the Cincy offense last week but the matchup goes to the opposite end of the spectrum here. Baltimore is great, but very tough to pay for.

Cash – Jackson, Andrews

GPP – Brown, D/ST, Dobbins

Bengals

QB – Brandon Allen was the hero of the day last week but it’s a new week and this is a spot where it’s best to not chase the game log. I will give him some credit for a 47.1% completion rate under pressure across his 121 attempts but this is still a very bad matchup. Baltimore has fallen back to 16th in DVOA against the pass but have only given up 21 touchdown passes. This is a much more talented unit than the Texans unit they faced last week. Allen is much likelier to have a bad game in this spot.

RB – I can kind of rinse and repeat for Gio Bernard. Last week was he worst run defense in football as far as yards given up go. Baltimore is eighth in DVOA against the run and 11th in rushing yards given up to backs. Bernard is still really cheap for the 23 touches he got last week and the eight targets were great. The frustrating part was he got one RZ carry to four for Samaje Perine, getting vultured once. I think Gio is still really cheap for the potential role, but it is not the smash spot it was and the RZ work really annoys me.

WR – If there’s one player that might tempt me, it could be Tee Higgins. This would really only be if Tyler Boyd is out again but the rookie from Clemson is really proving he’s a player at the NFL level. He’s approaching a 1,000 yard season and with 92 yards this week, he’s going to get there. He and Boyd are one target apart for the lead but Higgins has still sen over 100 targets this year for a 19.5% share. Only A.J. Green has more EZ targets than nine for Higgins and he’s doing his best with questionable quarterback play. If Boyd plays, this passing game becomes a little more muddled. He’s going to be in the slot mostly at around a 77% rate. We’ll get some clarity on Friday.

*Update* Boyd is cleared for this game and that means I’m not interested in the Bengals passing game.

TE – There’s really no middle ground for Drew Sample as he gets targeted either once or seven times lately. Considering the past two games have been just once, that really leaves him as a thin target. His rate is just 9.2% and when Boyd is out and he still gets no work, that’s not a good sign. He does have 11 RZ targets but that’s not enough for me to want to play him this week.

D/ST – This defense is horrible and has the second-fewest sacks with a pressure rate just barely over 18%. No thank you.

Cash – None

GPP – Possibly Higgins

Steelers at Browns, O/U of 42 (Browns -9)

Steelers

QB – The Steelers have announced that Mason Rudolph will start this week and I might actually have some interest. Do I think he’s any good? Not even a little bit BUT he is $4,300. He wasn’t as bad as I remember last year with a 62% completion rate and a 13:9 TD:INT ratio. The talent around him is a little better this year with Diontae Johnson having a full season under his belt and the addition of Chase Claypool. Even if he just gets us 200 passing yards and a touchdown, that’s workable at this price point. Cleveland is all the way down to 25th in DVOA against the pass so as a salary saver, Rudolph can get it done here. It helps that Cleveland will be without corner Denzel Ward again as well.

RB – There seems to be a split to some extent between James Conner and Benny Snell as Conner had five rushes to six for Snell. Conner also had about a 65-35% split in the snaps, which makes things a little harder to read. Either way, I’m fairly uninterested here. The Steelers running game has been garbage all year long and it’s not just on the backs. They’ll try to run the ball with a backup quarterback, but that doesn’t mean they can. Cleveland is only 18th in DVOA against the run but the situation is ugly.

WR – If we go back to last year where Rudolph started the majority of games, Johnson was still the lead target at a 20.5% target share. That’s not set in stone as JuJu Smith-Schuster was hurt and missed games, but I would still give a slight lean to him. My biggest fear is both of these players are priced like Big Ben is playing, and I’m not likely to go there. If I play Mason, it’s probably in cash only and by himself. Claypool is interesting a little bit if Rudolph is willing to push the ball downfield, and the rookie got back to right around 80% of the snaps last week. They could also get pulled early and the stealth play is James Washington. He’s playing a good bit of snaps but he’s still the number four. In this game, he could be the number one and he’s dirt cheap. With the Steelers sitting Ben so early in the week, all the starters are on red alert to leave early.

TE – Eric Ebron might be the most valuable player in this passing game (pending snaps played). Rudolph had a 6.2 yards per attempt last year and was mostly unwilling to get too aggressive. With Ebron having just a 7.1 aDOT, he could be targeted quite a bit. Even with Ben in, it’s not like this was a vertical offense. Ebron has a respectable 14.9% target share and is tied for the team lead in RZ targets. Changing quarterbacks can be volatile for the roles of players, but I think Ebron has he best chance to make the smoothest transition for as long as he’s in.

D/ST – They won’t be on my radar at all. With Ben already out and the team not having a traditional bye week, I can’t see T.J. Watt, Cam Hayward, Minkah Fitzpatrick or Joe Haden playing that long. At this price, they likely won’t be worth it.

Cash – Rudolph

GPP – Washington

Browns

QB – Here’s another team we need to be very interested in. After last week’s stumble, Cleveland needs this game and I think Baker Mayfield is in play despite the red “one” next to his name for the matchup. As I said, I don’t think the Steelers are going to risk their most important defensive players. They are razor thin in depth at multiple spots. For any hope of a playoff run, they need those guys healthy. Mayfield should be able to have a good game and was really clicking before he had no receivers last week. Now he has them all back in the fold and their backs are against the wall. Baker is one of the more interesting quarterbacks that is cheap.

RB – I said last week that I liked Jonathan Taylor in this same spot and I have to say the same for Nick Chubb. He’s going to have an easier path and somehow, even on 28 yards rushing he produced 17.6 DK last week. Now, he’s not going to get five targets again this week but the defense is going to be much less motivated to stop him. Chubb is going to get 20 touches against a defense that won’t risk anything. That’s all I need to know, and the fifth-best DVOA shouldn’t concern you. Kareem Hunt is in play as well, but not really my preferred target at the salary. I expect Chubb to get the vast majority of work here.

WR – I’m sure I’m not the only person happy to see Jarvis Landry back and he is going to have a big game. His 28% target share without OBJ speaks volumes, as does his 14 RZ targets. No other player has more than six in that time span and I’m really looking at him in a big way in cash games. He fell $400 from last week. That’s enough for me and since he’s in the slot around half the time, he won’t have to deal with Joe Haden even when Haden plays.

Rashard Higgins is the GPP target again with backup corners suspected. He’s the air yards share leader at 31.7% and is close to a 20% target share on his own. Cleveland will likely try to get on top quick and if that happens, Pittsburgh could wave the white flag early. He’s a super cheap option to go after in GPP.

TE – Now that there’s other threats in the passing game, it’s even easier to get behind Austin Hooper. No, he won’t get to 15 (!!) targets again this week but they’ll be higher quality targets and that’s all the matters. Since he’s under $4,000 and has the third-highest target share on the team, Hooper is pretty easy to play in any format if punting the position. I can see him in cash but I do prefer him in GPP more.

D/ST – If you don’t want the Jets, I can see the Browns defense as a punt. They have 37 sacks and 20 turnovers, both respectable marks. Rudolph didn’t impress anyone last year and there’s not a big reason to fear him.

Cash – Baker, Landry, Chubb

GPP – Hooper, D/ST

Cowboys at Giants, O/U of 45 (Cowboys -1.5)

Cowboys

QB – I guess Andy Dalton read that I didn’t think he had any ceiling because he went bonkers this past week with 377 yards and three touchdowns for 30 DK points. This is a tougher matchup although the Giants are a weird mix. The DVOA is just 24th against the pass but have given up just the seventh-fewest DK points per game. With a 21:10 TD:INT ratio, that’s not that bad of a mix and I’m hesitant to go back to Dalton here even with the talent he has.

RB – Since Dallas still has a chance to sneak into the playoffs, expect Ezekiel Elliott to get plenty of run. Zeke looked healthy last week and got 23 touches, and we should bank on that again. He scored 20 DK points even without a touchdown and the Giants have given up the third-most receiving yards. Zeke is too cheap against a team that is sitting in the 20’s in DVOA against the run and he’s going to try and give them every chance to sneak in.

WR – It could be another week to focus on Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb since Amari Cooper will face off against James Bradberry. Really, it may not be that big of a difference as Cooper produced anyways last week (the Eagles decided to move Darius Slay off him after Gallup was blowing up. It’s almost like you need multiple good corners). Since Dalton has come back, Gallup has the lead in targets with 43 to 38 for Cooper to 36 for Lamb. The latter is really the scariest one as he’s got the lowest target share and is under 60% of the snaps since Dalton returned. That’s tough as he needs to score to pay off.

I would prefer Gallup at the salaries and target share that we have at hand. Additionally, the matchup with Isaac Yiadom is not a worry. He’s allowed a 13.0 YPR, 106.3 passer rating and a 1.80 pPT. This isn’t just game log chasing.

TE – Dalton Schultz has really taken a step back with Dalton and is a distant fourth in targets. He’s not been over 44 yards or four receptions in the last six games, so he’s been the definition of safety valve. The salary is not very high and he could go 3x, especially considering they’ve allowed almost 800 yards to the position. Now, they’ve only let up four scores so Schultz doesn’t stand out in any other way than possibly a punt tight end.

D/ST – Dallas is on a three game streak of really producing on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve racked up 10 turnovers and seven sacks, and with the Giants poor quarterback play they’re on the board as an option. I don’t really love the price here though.

Cash – Zeke with a bullet point

GPP – Gallup, Lamb, Cooper, Dalton

Giants

QB – I honestly don’t care who the quarterback is but I’m not playing him. The assumption would be Daniel Jones is healthy enough to go but 16 turnovers to 10 touchdowns is trash. We know what he is and it’s a turnover machine with a super low floor and not much ceiling this year. This is an easy pass with a 0.33 pDB, 32nd in the league. I know they can sneak into the playoffs and need this game, but still.

RB – We talked last week about the split this Giants backfield was becoming and that held true again. They were down early, but Wayne Gallman only had six carries and barely played 50% of the snaps. The only reason we played Gallman earlier was he was then getting fed the rock. Now that Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis involved, I’m very leery here. I know Dallas is weak on the ground with the 24th ranked DVOA against the run but I don’t trust any back on this team.

WR – The only receiver that I’m looking for here is Sterling Shepard. He is tied for the target lead since he came back in Week 7 with 70 targets and leads in RZ looks with nine. No player has more receptions on the team since that point and Shepard is still very cheap on DK. He crushed his price last week and the Dallas secondary is still not good either.

I know that Darius Slayton has the air yards share lead at 28.4% but the target share is under 17%. He gets a great matchup in but the volatility of production isn’t that appealing on this giant slate unless Shepard trends towards being out.

TE – Evan Engram looks like his ankle injury won’t keep him out of the game, so we need to look at him. He’s tied with Shepard for the team lead in targets and is under $4,000, a great combo at tight end. Engram also leads in RZ targets and the Dallas defense can be had. They are playing better, but the target share doesn’t come this cheap at the position. He’s a primary option if not using Andrews in my eyes.

D/ST – Is it weird that I don’t want to play this unit against the Cowboys right now? We haven’t said that a lot over the past two months but the Giants could get beat up here. They’ve been struggling as of late, with just two sacks and one turnover across the last three games. Dallas can be vulnerable on the offensive line but New York might not be able to take advantage.

Cash – Shepard, Engram

GPP – Slayton (MME ONLY)

Falcons at Buccaneers, O/U of 50 (Buccaneers -7)

Falcons

QB – Tampa might be in the top 12 in passing yards allowed over the past three weeks, but that’s skewed by facing the Detroit Lions gaggle of poor options last week. Matt Ryan has his flaws, but this is still a spot that can be had. It’s a little risky because Ryan is pressured almost 24% of the time and that’s worrisome. There’s a good news/bad news here because these two teams just played each other. Ryan lit them up for 30 DK points but I wonder if the closeness of the scheduling hurts Ryan here. The Bucs just played him and may be wise to some of their plays. I think Ryan is cheap enough for GPP but I’m not a huge fan in cash.

RB – The Bucs boast the best run defense in yards allowed and DVOA in football so I will have zero Ito Smith this week. He played 32% of the snaps last week and Todd Gurley and Brian Hill played more snaps last week. There’s no reason to go here.

WR – Calvin Ridley is very expensive and I don’t care in the least. He’s been massive without Julio Jones this year and just look at the game logs. He’s been over 100 yards or has scored a touchdown in every single game since Week 12. He pantsed this Tampa defense for 35 DK points last time with a 10/163/1 line and I want another piece of him. In that time frame, Ridley has a 28.9% target share and a 50.7% air yards share. Those numbers are enormous and he deserves to be this high in salary. Jamel Dean has played well with a 91.0 passer rating allowed and just a 1.50 pPT but I don’t fear many corners with Ridley.

I also want to go back to the Russell Gage play. He had a rough time of it last week and that game script just did not go at all how I thought. However, Gage has been in the slot for the majority of his snaps and has an 18.7% target share over the past five games. He has 35 total and nobody has more than 25 on the team. Being in the slot against the Bucs is a profitable spot as well against Sean Murphy-Bunting. He’s allowed a 2.10 pPT on the year.

TE – Especially if you want to stack this game, Hayden Hurst could be an option. He’s had five targets in each of the past two weeks and scored in each game. I still don’t consider him more than touchdown or bust, but he could score with the offense as it is right now. He’s tied in the RZ targets at six with Gage and Ridley (although just one EZ target). I’ve not had a good feel for Hurst all season, but the Bucs have given up eight scores on the year.

D/ST – Not against a Tom Brady that would probably like to win this game.

Cash – Ridley

GPP – Ryan, Gage, Hurst

Buccaneers

QB – My goodness did Brady go full ham sandwich last week. He put up 32.9 DK in ONE HALF of football and if they had let him off the leash, he could have broken the league record for passing touchdowns in a game. If the Bucs win, they guarantee a spot against the NFC East champ. It would be on the road, but it’s hard to not want that spot if you’re Tampa. Brady just put up 26 against this Falcons defense and they are going to have a rough day. They rank 17th in DVOA against the pass but they are also a good run-stopping team. With the playoff fate on the line, Tampa will put the ball in Brady’s hands.

RB – Ronald Jones is back from a stint on the Covid list and a finger surgery, and his price is really too low. Before his absence, Coach Bruce Arians said it was RoJo’s job. I don’t trust BA, but he also scratched Leonard Fournette the last game Jones played. That’s a good sign and this is a very interesting spot. The Falcons are sixth in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-fewest rush yards in football. They are also tied for the fourth-most receptions to backs and if Brady is dropping back 40 times, Jones should have at least 3-4 receptions on top of whatever carries he gets. He’s just way too cheap for his role, especially if Fournette is scratched again.

WR – The price really jumped up for Mike Evans but how could it not after he dropped 40+ DK last Saturday? He got these Falcons for 20 DK two weeks ago and that was without a touchdown. If he scores, he could go nuclear again and he has 17 total RZ and EZ targets since Antonio Brown rolled into town, most on the team. Evans is also the only player over 20% in target share so he fully deserves to be this pricey. Rookie A.J. Terrell and his 112.9 passer rating and 13.5 YPR don’t have much of a chance on paper.

Chris Godwin and AB are much harder to separate. Godwin has the target lead at 48-47 and a slight edge in air yards share, though it is negligible. Godwin also has the reception and touchdown lead so I have to give him just a little bit of an edge, though you can argue that it’s not worth playing Godwin at $1,100 more in salary. That tends to be where I land on this slate in that I’ll just take the stronger value. I would say I’m likely only using Godwin or AB in Brady stacks.

TE – Everyone might chase the big Rob Gronkowski game from last week but he literally only had his two receptions that both scored for 58 yards. That’s living your best life and we need to understand just how volatile Gronkowski still is. Even in a great matchup that is Atlanta, he’s capable of scoring 5.9 DK in any game. The Flacons have let up 10 touchdowns and the third-most yards, just know what you’re getting into at the price.

D/ST – There’s not a lot of reason that you couldn’t play the Bucs in this spot but I’m not overly excited about it. The price is still high and they’ve been bleeding points to a lot of teams. They are third in sacks and second in pressure rate so there’s potential but you need a lot of it at the salary.

Cash – Brady, Evans, RoJo

GPP – Godwin, AB, Gronkowski

Packers at Bears, O/U of 51 (Packers -5.5)

Packers

QB – With the Packers needing to win for the easiest clinch for the number one seed, I think we get enough Aaron Rodgers to play. He’s been phenomenal with an obscene 47:7 total touchdown to turnover ratio to go along with over 4,000 yards passing. Chicago is tough on paper with the ninth-best DVOA against the pass but Rodgers is immune to that. He chewed up the Bears for 25 DK points and four touchdowns in the first meeting. That’s easily 3x at this price and the Packers will want to close this one out as fast as possible to secure the precious bye week. The loss of tackle David Bakhtiari is a big deal, but I still expect the Packers to push for home-field.

RB – On the flip side, I think Aaron Jones is too expensive to really consider too heavily. He’s not a sure bet to get a ton of touches as the Packers have split the snaps more than we’d like almost the entire year. Last week was a blowout but A.J. Dillon had over 20 touches and is sort of interesting. My fear is he doesn’t get significant run until the game gets out of hand. If that’s the case, Rodgers will be out so I’m more likely to fade this situation. The Bears being fourth in DVOA against the run so that doesn’t help either.

WR – One of the only teams to contain Davante Adams so far have been these Bears, who held him to a 6/61 line in their first meeting. That’s not really the concern and if the Packers go for the kill shot early, Adams almost has to be at the center of it. There’s not much to say on Adams at this point, nor his 34.6% target share and 39.5% air yards share in the offense. When you’re getting that amount from Rodgers, the sky is the limit every week. Kyle Fuller is a great corner and is 16th in catch rate allowed at 57.6%. I also don’t care with Adams. To make it better for Adams, the Bears are without Jaylon Johnson as well in their secondary.

I really won’t go to the secondary options in Allen Lazard nor Marques Valdes-Scantling. They only combined for three targets last week and are both under 15.5% for the season on target share. We’re not even sure Rodgers will even play the whole game.

TE – Robert Tonyan would be the preferred secondary target but man he is expensive. He basically has to score because the target share is only 11.9% and he has only 10 RZ targets. Tonyan lives on touchdowns with 10 on the season and I just can’t stomach that price tag for such a volatile player. He only looks like a reliable target because of the touchdowns and the only reason to go for him is the Bears have allowed 10 scores to tight ends, tied for second-most.

D/ST – They are just far too expensive for a unit that has only 16 turnovers on the year in my eyes. The Bears can give the ball away with 20 on the season but this still feels pretty dicey.

Cash – Rodgers, Adams

GPP – Tonyan, D/ST

Bears

QB – The Bears actually still can get in the postseason, and the coaching staff and players are fighting for their jobs. That includes Mitchell Trubisky, who is trying to prove that he deserves to start in the 2021 season. Since he got back into the lineup in Week 12, he has played fairly well. He’s thrown for 10 touchdowns in that period against just four interceptions. Only once has he had a completion rate under 68% and the only games that haven’t been fantasy relevant have been either just one touchdown pass or just 21 attempts. He should need to throw a lot in this one and I like Trubisky at this price range once again.

RB – I’ll thank DK for not moving the price on David Montgomery, who produced another 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown last week on 25 touches. Monty has been a terror lately and is still inside the top 10 in scrimmage yards on the season. I am worried about script but Monty did produce 28 DK in this matchup the first go-around. Rocking an 11.2% target share is nothing to be ashamed of either and the Packers are vulnerable on the ground. They are just 19th in DVOA and I think Monty is a good pick in GPP, but would worry about potential floor in cash games. he best way to beat Green Bay (in theory) is to keep Rodgers off the field. That means all the Monty.

WR – I find myself having such a hard time clicking on Allen Robinson’s name even though he smashed in the first game. Usually, I’m loathe to go after Jaire Alexander with receivers but Robinson is talented enough to overcome any matchup. There’s really nothing metric-ly (it’s a word, mind your business) wrong with playing A-Rob. He has a 26.4% target share and a 31.3% air yards share, both to easily lead the team. Only Jimmy Graham rivals him in the RZ and EZ shares, but I just never feel comfortable projecting Robinson for the nearly 25 points he needs.

I still want Darnell Mooney as my secondary receiver, but he’s nothing to ever rely on. He’s just the only other receiver that is over 16% in air yards share (23.4%) so he fits the bill for a potential long touchdown. That’s really the best we can say about him.

TE – Graham has really been a buzzkill lately with three touchdowns in the last three games. He’s only playing about 45% of the snaps but has six combined RZ and EZ targets to just one for Cole Kmet. Since you’re punting either player, it likely makes more sense to go Graham. You need the touchdown to pay off and he has the better shot at it. Green Bay has only allowed five touchdowns to tight ends on the season so neither player stands out as a super strong play.

D/ST – Not against Rodgers.

Cash – Trubisky, Monty (maybe, not sold yet)

GPP – A-Rob, Graham

Saints at Panthers, O/U of 47.5 (Saints -6.5)

Saints

QB – I don’t know if I could possibly get behind Drew Brees on this slate. He’s looked strikingly average since coming back and three interceptions in two games is very non-Brees like. He just doesn’t look right and there seems to be no zip on the ball. The Saints have locked up the division title and if the Packers start running away with their game, there’s no reason for New Orleans to push at all. With needing help to get to the number one seed and Brees looking like he’s in poor form, I’ll pass.

RB – One player that could really turn into great chalk is Latavius Murray. For the same reasons outlined with Brees, Alvin Kamara is not super likely to get a big workload. That means we could get Murray for at least 15 touches (more if Kamara is sat outright) against the 21st DVOA run defense and I’m all in on that at the salary. Murray is more than a capable back and if they sit Brees, Taysom Hill brings an added dimension with his legs to help Murray anyways. Let’s see how the Saints approach this, but Murray could be mega chalk. I’m hopeful that Kamara is active and people overlook Murray.

*Update* Kamara has been put on the Covid list and will not play in this game, leaving Murray as one of the chalkier plays on the slate in all likelihood.

*Update Two* Murray has now been ruled out as well, and this Saints offense is so thin that I don’t think almost any are really in play.

WR – The receiving corps is incredibly thin for the Saints right now, lending more credence to the fact they may run the ball a lot in this one. Emmanuel Sanders is the alpha with a bullet point, but the price is in no man’s land. He’s not super pricey, but the targets are flighty. He’s seen no more than five the past three weeks and that’s not likely to be good enough since he needs almost 17 DK to hit 3x.

I’m not playing any of Juwan Johnson or Marquez Callaway with the questions surrounding this offense and what could change in the middle of the game.

TE – For the minimum price, Adam Trautman could be a punt option. He’s had games where he’s been on the field over 60% of the time and it’s possible Jared Cook might not play a full game. It’s not like Trautman has been a target magnet at all but he’s so cheap, you’re not going to need much. The Panthers are tied for the second-most receptions allowed and the eighth-most yards, so this is a soft matchup. Cook would have some value if we knew he’d play the whole game but we can’t predict that.

D/ST – On the season, New Orleans has produced 42 sacks and 21 turnovers. Normally they are a strong option but could suffer the same fate as the offense in not playing the full game. I’ll use a different unit.

Cash – Murray

GPP – Sanders, Cook, Trautman

Panthers

QB – I’m less and less motivated to play Teddy Bridgewater anymore just because it’s so hard to find a ceiling game. He’s hovering right around average to slightly below in pDB, points per game, touchdowns, yards….everything. He’s a fine “holding someone’s spot” option but I think it’s clear he’s not someone you build a team around. New Orleans is fourth in DVOA against the pass, so this would normally not garner any attention from me. Even playing the angle where the important starters are done by halftime isn’t enough to tempt me. We have other options in the bargain basement to chase.

RB – Sees Mike Davis is still going to start. Closes out the RB tab for the Panthers.

It might not be that cut and dry, but Davis has not seen his price decrease virtually at all despite having just ONE game over 15.9 DK points since Week 5. That’s three months of football that DK has not budged on the $6,000+ price tag. Now he gets a Saints unit that has allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards to backs and are fourth in DVOA. Close out the tab.

It’s not likely to be Davis anymore, but I’m not willing to play Rodney Smith in a tough matchup statically when I can play Ty Johnson for $300 more.

WR – The prices for the Panthers receivers are really appealing on all fronts. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have a 23.7% target share or higher to go along with an air yards share of at least 33.9% (Moore is over 40%). They are all under $6,000 and Moore got the Saints for 4/93/2 the first game while Anderson went 6/74. Moore is going to get some of Marshon Lattimore who has gotten beat up for a 14.3 YPR. That’s a perfect fit for Moore’s game. That should leave Anderson more on Janoris Jenkins with his 1.70 pPT.

Curtis Samuel might be the forgotten man to some extent but if he’s going to get seven rushing attempts on top of five targets like last week, we have to be interested there as well. Samuel is on the field about 67% of the time on the season and has 38 rush attempts to go with his 86 targets. That style of volume isn’t bad at all and Samuel runs out of the slot a good bit. He’s also likely to get some more rushing attempts with the situation so dire. Moore and Samuel are my favorites of the bunch.

TE – Ian Thomas can continue to be safely ignored with just a 5.7% target share on the year with two RZ looks.

D/ST – It seems like the only time the Panthers defense is worth playing is if they get a defensive touchdown, which we have little chance to predict.

Cash – Samuel, Moore

GPP – Anderson

Jaguars at Colts, O/U of 49.5 (Colts -14)

Jaguars

QB – The Jaguars have locked up the number one pick, so welcome to Duvall Trevor Lawrence. I wonder if that means the Jags turn back to Gardner Minshew now since he’s definitively better than Mike Glennon. Of course Minshew has his flaws but perhaps the Jags can try and dangle him in the offseason to a QB-needy team. The Mustache hasn’t played that terribly when given the reigns this season with a 16:5 TD:INT ratio in nine games. Indy is seventh in DVOA against the pass so it’s not an easy matchup on paper but the price is so low for Minshew that I would remain interested.

*Update* The Jaguars are still starting Glennon and I have no reason to go there.

RB – Week 17 can bring up some weird names and Dare Ogunbowale might well be one of them. There’s no reason to let James Robinson (who is officially out) play in this game and Ogunbowale played over 70% of the snaps last week and handled 17 touches. Not too much came from it with just 78 scrimmage yards but I might be slightly more interested if Minshew plays. Indy is a strong run defense, as they are 11th in DVOA and have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards. They are in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed and Ogunbowale has some pass catching chops. He’s not the worst value on the board.

WR – Man, D.J. Chark is just going to keep staring at me under $5,000 again. He leads in target share at just 20% but the air yards share is excellent at 35.5%. Chark also leads in RZ and EZ targets so even in a tough spot against Xavier Rhodes, it’s such a low price. You can also play Laviska Shenault or Keelan Cole if you think Rhodes holds Chark in check. Their target share is about dead even and the receptions are tied at 52, so it’s a little harder to figure them out. I do prefer Shenault since they want to continue to develop him at the NFL level. He also gets more of Rock Ya-Sin, who we’ve picked on a little bit. Even in Week 1, Viska scored a touchdown against these Colts.

*Update* Chark is out for Jacksonville and Ya-Sin is out for the Colts. Cole might be he best option here since Rhodes could see plenty of Viska.

TE – Tyler Eifert had a couple weeks that I was willing to punt him in, but not this time. His snaps have gone under 60% and the target share is barely above 11%. We don’t need to dive this deep at the position.

D/ST – They’re the exact same price as the Jets so this is no contest for me.

Cash – None

GPP – Minshew, Ogunbowale, Chark, Viska

Colts

QB – The Colts need to win and they need some help so we can safely go after them in his game. Philip Rivers is at a nice price for cash games, but that might be about it. He only has there games over 20 DK all season and only once has he hit 4x at this current price tag. The matchup couldn’t get much easier as the Jags are 31st in DVOA against the pass but the Colts still might not need Rivers to throw it all over the yard. I would expect another solid day that won’t kill you, but nothing special from the veteran in this one.

RB – One of the best ways to win this game is to saddle up Jonathan Taylor and let him go to work. Only the Cowboys and Texans have allowed more rush yards to the running back position and they are 22nd in DVOA against the run. Taylor has become the feature back in Indy, even if it did happen later than we thought in the preseason. He hasn’t been under 16 touches since Week 10 and he’s shown his upside lately, with four straight games of at least 19 DK. This could be another spot like he had against the Raiders where he rushed for 150 yards and hit pay dirt twice. Taylor has scored five touchdowns in the past three weeks and should continue that streak this week.

WR – If you know which Colts receiver to play on a given week, let me know. The past two weeks have been Zach Pascal weeks after three straight games of T.Y. Hilton leading the charge. That’s coincided with Pascal suddenly leading the receivers in snaps, so he may represent the best value on the board. His 13% target share is only 1% behind Michael Pittman, and neither player has an imposing matchup. That’s being kind to the Jacksonville secondary, which is terrible.

If guessing, I would take the snaps with Pascal and hope the targets continue to follow. I’m not a huge fan of the Colts passing game because it seems like any given week you can be wrong. One of these receivers will have a pretty nice game, leaving them all as GPP targets only.

TE – Last week saw Jack Doyle and Trey Burton turn 10 combined targets into about 13 DK points. Since they both play so much and Mo Alie-Cox is still involved in playing time, it’s best to just skip this position entirely for Indy.

D/ST – They are absolutely in play as the Jags have 24 turnovers on the year and Indy has created 24 themselves. They’ve also gotten to the quarterback 34 times, my only complaint is the price is pretty high. I’ll likely go lower in salary.

Cash – Taylor, Rivers, D/ST

GPP – Pascal, Hilton, Pittman

Titans at Texans, O/U of 56 (Titans -7.5)

Titans

QB – The Titans are in the “win and clinch” scenario since their easiest path is just beating the Texans, winning the AFC South and getting the four seed. Knowing that, this entire team is in play and I honestly believe a Titans stack is one of the most appealing plays on this slate. They have the highest O/U of any game. Ryan Tannehill might seem a little pricey and he is, but just look at what Brandon Allen did to this defense last week. Brandon. Allen. Since becoming the starter for the Titans, Tannehill has put up stats comparable to Patrick Mahomes in some respects. That’s mind-blowing but true. He’s second in the league in pDB, ninth in points per game, sixth in touchdowns and first in true completion rate. Fire away in any format.

RB – Say it with me – all the Derrick Henry this week. If there is one player that I feel like I’m going to lock in everywhere, it’s Henry. Houston is the stone worst rush defense in football. The Titans absolutely need to win. Even when the Titans got housed Sunday in Green Bay, Henry had 23 touches. Houston is 30th in DVOA against the run and are the only team to surrender over 2,000 rushing yards to this point of the season. Henry is going to steamroll this defense and the first time around he had 43 DK points. I’m not going to be surprised if he approaches that score again this week.

WR – I’m putting basically no stock in the play from last week for the Titans, so A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are both strongly on my radar. Since the prices have closed, I’m just going to find the extra money for Brown. He has the target share lead at 25.1% and the air yards share at 34.4%. The receptions are dead even but Brown has 10 touchdowns to five for Davis. Brown should absolutely destroy this matchup. We’ve relentlessly targeted Vernon Hargreaves and the Houston secondary. We’re no stopping now.

TE – Jonnu Smith is still on the board as a target as well. We always chase tight ends that can score in this price range and Smith leads the team in RZ and EZ targets. That’s the kind of metrics we need because his 59.3% route rate is only 25th in the league. With a lower volume, the touchdown equity has to be higher and he’s scored the third-most touchdowns at the position. If you fade Henry and go full leverage with the passing game, Smith is a very interesting (and cheaper) way to get a second piece with Tannehill and AJB.

D/ST – No way. The Texans offense is still producing at a high level and the Titans defense have a bottom five pressure rate with little chance at racking up sacks even against the Texans.

Cash – Henry, AJB, Tannehill

GPP – Smith, Davis

Texans

QB – The expectation is Deshaun Watson is going to play, and he needs to if the Texans have any remote chance to field a competent offense. It’s really incredible what Watson is doing and he’s not getting the attention he deserves because Houston is so bad. Watson is sixth in pDB, sixth in points per game, ninth in touchdown passes, second in yards, third in true completion rate and fifth in rushing yards. There’s nothing he can’t do against any opponent. Provided his arm is ok after a scary looking hit, Watson is safe for any format.

RB – I didn’t want any David Johnson last week and boy was I WRONG. I couldn’t have been more wrong and credit to the staff who went after him. DJ looked like prime DJ in Arizona and rolled up 31.9 DK points on just 15 touches. Two touchdowns will certainly help and I still feel like I’m chasing if I play him again. The price has gone higher and the odds of him scoring twice and going over 100 rushing yards on so few touches are not great. Tennessee is 16th in DVOA against the run, which isn’t terrible. I still will likely be underweight to none just because of the salary and the massive efficiency. If the backfield is thin like it was last week, maybe I can get on board here.

WR – Just like DJ, I really whiffed on Brandin Cooks but I’m not willing to make that mistake again. If Cooks gets onto Malcolm Butler even just a handful of snaps, he’s going to absolutely torch him. Butler does not have the speed to keep up with Cooks in the least. Since Will Fuller has been suspended, Cooks has the air yards share lead at 34.5% and target share lead at 23.2%. He also has the co-lead in EZ targets and a pristine matchup. Even if the Texans put A’doree Jackson on him to match the speed factor, Jackson has barely played this year and I favor Cooks.

I still like Keke Coutee out of the slot as well. He’s only a little bit behind Cooks for the target share lead and has four RZ targets. Only DJ has more since Week 13 at five, and Coutee also has the EZ target lead with Cooks. He’s running out of the slot which means a lot of Desmond King. He’s been solid but has allowed nearly a 65% catch rate.

TE – If you have to play a tight end (not that I am), it has to be Jordan Akins. Since Fuller has been gone, he has a 14.1% target share and is fourth in raw targets. Even still, he’s only averaging about six PPR points per game and that’s not going to be worth much. Tennessee is just average to the tight end and has only given up seven scores on the season.

D/ST – There’s no reason to play this bad of a defense against a very efficient offense that has only given up 11 turnovers and 22 sacks.

Cash – Watson, Cooks

GPP – DJ, Coutee

Chargers at Chiefs, O/U of 44 (Chargers -3.5)

Chargers

QB – We’ve seen some volatility with the production for Justin Herbert lately, making him possibly a little shakier than he has been at any point this year. The seasonal metrics still look great. He’s eighth in points per game, 10th in passing touchdowns and seventh in passing yards. One facet that has fallen off a bit is the pDB as it’s down to 15th. It’s interesting to note that it’s not even exactly Keenan Allen related. Herbert basically didn’t have him against Vegas and he smashed that matchup. With Kansas City already saying they’re resting players, Herbert should have an easier time in this matchup. I do think there’s options that are safer in the price range.

RB – I am really torn on Austin Ekeler. On the one hand, he’s got a fantastic matchup since the Chiefs will A. not have their first-string offense in and B. KC is 29th in DVOA against the run. They’ve also allowed the most receiving yards to backs, which seems to be directly in Ekeler’s wheelhouse. Well, maybe it is. For some reason, Ekeler only has a total of seven targets in the past two games. That’s pretty baffling considering Allen has played all of 24 of a possible 134 snaps the past two weeks. We’re talking about a player that has a target share over 28% with Herbert but Ekeler is getting the ball less. I firmly believe that Ekeler could smash this matchup, but I’m a little more leery with how the past couple weeks have gone. Ekeler is a premier pass catching back in the league. It’s silly to take that away from the offense.

WR – Well, well, well, how the turntables…. it’s a reference from The Office (pour one out for those who just lost it on Netflix) and it could be Mike Williams week just one week after Stix swore him off. Allen is officially out this week and Williams has the air yards share lead with Allen in the lineup. He saw 10 targets last week and dropped a touchdown, which changes his day significantly. Williams is still far too cheap and should be a strong option against some depth pieces on KC.

Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson are fighting for the scraps and I lean Guyton with a higher target share and since he’s cheaper. That’s about all we can say with Williams almost a lock to get double-digit targets again.

TE – We’ll wait to see if Hunter Henry comes off the Covid list before making the call here.

*Update* Henry is not going to get activated for this game, so Williams should see another boatload of targets and RZ looks.

D/ST – Is it weird that I’m scared to play them even without the Chiefs playing the starters? The salary does them no favors, in all honesty. They do have 18 turnovers forced but the 26 sacks is very average. I think they’re just a bit too expensive, even for the situation. It’s still Andy Reid on the other sideline.

Chiefs

QB – When we consider using backup or cheap quarterbacks, Chad Henne will enter the discussion. The biggest issue is he won’t be throwing to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce that much because it would be quite silly to play those guys. Henne has not seen significant action since 2014 when he appeared in three games, so we’re dealing with mostly a mystery box here. On his carer, he only has a 59.3% completion rate (on some pretty poor teams to be fair) with a 58:63 TD:INT ratio. Part of me says Reid will be able to coax a solid game out of him as the Chargers are just 18th in DVOA against the pass. The other part of me says we don’t need to risk this and have better options even in this range, which is where I think I land. It would be different if he had the full offense at his disposal.

RB – We have an interesting situation at the running back spot. Last week the world assumed that Le’Veon Bell would be the lead back but it was actually Darrell Williams who had more touches and played 70% of the snaps. They aren’t priced like that in the least and Williams might have some strong value here. Sure, it’s not the usual KC offense but can we totally look past a back who can get 12-15 touches under $5,000? We shouldn’t. The Chiefs could opt for a more run-heavy approach as well and the Chargers are 28th against the run in DVOA. I’d want some more information on who’s playing on offense but Williams could step into being a big value.

WR – I would have to guess that we’ll have more value in Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Both Hill and Sammy Watkins would stand to play a minimal role this week and Hardman and Robinson played over 60% of the snaps last week. I’m not sure if we can overstate just how much of the passing game Hill and Kelce leave behind if they don’t play. Of the 588 pass attempts for Mahomes, those two have accounted for 280 targets. That’s 47.6% of the targets and the air yards share combine for over 60%. That. Is. MASSIVE. I would expect Robinson will be more of a possession style receiver while Hardman is more of the explosive player. Both are well in play and Hardman has a slight edge in target share on the season. I lean Robinson in cash and Hardman in GPP but we’re guessing at how well this offense can function. It’s harder to say what the individual matchups will be because we haven’t seen the offense run without the main cogs.

TE – The other tight ends on the roster behind Kelce have combined for 15 targets. That’s it, that’s the list. Nick Keizer has the “lead” with nine targets but I think the exposure to the KC offense can safely stop here. I’d rather play Trautman from New Orleans at the punt price.

D/ST – My goal on this slate is to stick with defenses that will play the starters the whole time and KC does not fit that bill.

Cash – TBD with more info on how KC handles the rest of the starters

GPP – TBD

Raiders at Broncos, O/U of 51 (Raiders -3)

Raiders

QB – Derek Carr should continue to start as it stands, although I don’t wonder if Marcus Mariota gets the nod to see what he’s got with a week of prep. We’ll operate with Carr as the starter and he’s been better for real life football than fantasy this season. Carr sits between 12th and 18th in yards, touchdowns, points per game and pDB so he’s the definition of average. I think the perception is he doesn’t push the ball downfield enough, but that’s not exactly fair either. His 7.8 yards per attempt is actually eighth, which surprised me. It still just doesn’t come together for fantasy on the 14th most attempts. Denver is 11th in DVOA against the pass and Carr is such a bland option that I can’t get there myself.

RB – I feel like I have a very difficult time getting Josh Jacobs right. When I like him, he stinks and when I pass on him he blows up. This is kind of a good spot for him as the game should be competitive and he ran all over Denver in the first game for 30+ DK points. Denver is 25th in DVOA against the run and are bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed. Jacobs was a dud last week but needed an IV on game day and was fighting through illness. If he’s good to go, the spot is excellent for him as is the salary.

WR – The only receiver that is worth playing in my eyes is Nelson Agholor. No other receiver has a target share above 15% (and even Agholor is just 15.9%) so there’s not a lot of meat on the bone for any other option. I wish that Henry Ruggs was more involved in creative ways, but just 40 targets on the season is ridiculous. Anyways, Agholor is the only option here and he leads the team in air yards share at 28.5% which helps negate the lower target rate. Also, he leads in EZ targets at 12 and that is really respectable. Micheal Ojemudia stands to see most of Agholor and he’s just average by any metric.

TE – The main cog in the passing game continues to be Darren Waller and he is the clear pay-up spot at the position. With Kelce out (assuming), Waller is the alpha and his target share is approaching 28%. He only needs two receptions to hit 100 on the season and he was terrible in the first Denver matchup. I’m not sure that’s the biggest surprise since Denver has been very solid to tight ends this year. They’ve only allowed four scores which is tied for the third-fewest. Waller doesn’t need to score per se, but it would definitely help at the price. I lean just playing Andrews and spending up elsewhere like Ridley and Henry.

D/ST – I know it’s the Broncos, who lead the league with 32 turnovers but the Raiders defense is devoid of talent. We have other options that have a lot more than the 19 sacks the Raiders do on the season and the 15 turnovers that they’ve forced this year.

Cash – Waller, Jacobs

GPP – Carr, Agholor

Broncos

QB – In theory, this is the style of spot to consider Drew Lock. He’s only $5,000, the matchup is perfect for him since the Raiders are 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 25th in yardage allowed. On the flip side, we have so many other options that Lock is still a tough sell. He’s 30th in pDB at 0.37, 27th in points per game and 36th in true completion rate. This numbers are pretty bad, Broncos offensive pieces being injured duly noted. The flashes of fantasy relevance are so few that I’m not quite sure I have the guts. That may seem like a weird sentence considering some of the options we have on the table this week, but here we are.

RB – Melvin Gordon left a bad taste in our mouths after last week but I definitely have interest in going right back to the well. He got 16 touches, although how you don’t target MG3 in the passing game when your quarterback is a trash can is beyond me. Phillip Lindsay is done for the season, which means that only Royce Freeman and LeVante Bellamy are behind him for touches. They combined for just eight touches so we know they aren’t real threats. Vegas is 31st in DVOA against the run and and are well over 2,100 scrimmage yards. Have a short memory here and realize that MG3 is still under $6,000.

WR – If we want part of the measure about how poorly Lock played, Jerry Jeudy was targeted a massive 15 times last week and went 6/61. That’s almost defying all logic for a kid as talented as he is. I’m sure it wasn’t all on Lock, but the inefficiency can really sour a day. Jeudy is the leader in air yards share at 31.1% and he’s now pulled ahead for the target share lead at 21.5%. He’s really the only one that I’m looking to play, although Tim Patrick enters the fray if K.J. Hamler is out. Hamler has a 12.8% target share that would need to be absorbed, bumping up both Jeudy and Patrick.

TE – Another victim of some shaky quarterback play was Noah Fant, although he caught more than half of his passes. Fant has been a player all year that you can play in cash or on short slates, but the ceiling just hasn’t been there. After Week 2, Fant has one game over 12.5 DK. Some of that has been his injuries but this still hasn’t proven to be a GPP play at his price. He does have the co-lead in RZ targets so that helps a bit but the Raiders have been average to the position all year with only five scores allowed.

D/ST – The Broncos have only forced 12 turnovers, second-fewest in the league. They are respectable in the sacks department at 39 but I think there’s better punt options since Carr has only been sacked 23 times on the season.

Cash – MG3, Fant

GPP – Jeudy, Lock

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 40.5 (Cardinals -3.5)

Cardinals

QB – The Cards have to be feeling lucky that they’ll have Kyler Murray under center this week since the opposition isn’t so lucky. They have a shot at the playoffs with needing a little bit of help, so we shouldn’t worry about that angle. This is a tough matchup, as the Rams sit third in DVOA against the pass. We should note that Kyler managed to score 18 DK the first meeting with only five rushing attempts. That’s fairly impressive and the three touchdown passes helped goose the score. I do prefer other options like Watson or Rodgers or Brady, but Kyler shouldn’t be ignored either. He’s sixth in pDB, first in points per game and top 12 in passing touchdowns and yards. Add in the second-most rushing yards and touchdowns and the ceiling is easy to find.

RB – Kenyan Drake is always sort of in play since his price always beckons, but he almost needs to score to hit 3x, let alone 4x. He has no receiving floor with a 5.7% target share on the year. He’s totally reliant on his rushing yards and the Rams don’t present the easiest spot for that. They match their third ranked DVOA against the pass with the same rank against the run. They’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards. Drake has a big lead in RZ carries at 55-23 next to Kyler, but it never seems to work out the way. Chase Edmonds also lurks with 11 RZ targets and 13 attempts himself, so I’m not that interested in either.

*Update* Edmonds is questionable, so Drake could be a little more interesting if he’s out.

WR – I wonder what the field thinks of DeAndre Hopkins this week because he could be a great play, especially if he’s unpopular. He went for 19.2 DK the first time around and had a whopping 13 targets. The presence of Jalen Ramsey didn’t really bother him or Kyler as far as workload. He only went for 52 yards so if the yards go up, Nuk could go off for a bigger day.

The secondary target in Christian Kirk has my eye to some extent as well. He’s very cheap and after a month of very little work, he saw 10 targets last week. The Cards were also down big that game which may not happen here. The script is likely different but Kirk is clearly the second-best bet as far as air yards share would lead us.

TE – We saw why I’ve been so loathe to play Dan Arnold lately since he went under five DK points and played under 50% of the snaps. There’s not much of a reason to go after a player in a timeshare with a 8.1% target share on the season.

D/ST – They generate the sixth-highest pressure rate with a 39% blitz rate and that’s got a chance to confuse a backup. The 46 sacks is top five in the league and the 19 turnovers forced are very solid as well. If you’re not going after a true punt, the Cards shake out as one of the better mid-range options.

Cash – D/ST

GPP – Nuk, Murray, Kirk, Drake

Rams

QB – John Wolford does not have any experience at the NFL level, which is not a great mix to walk in Week 17 with a playoff spot on the line. Arizona is 10th in DVOA against he pass and we honestly have no idea what to expect from him. What I expect from the Rams in general is to try and smash mouth their way to victory. They already rank seventh in rushing attempts per game, so the run-heavy approach isn’t going to change. Wolford will have to make a throw or two to loosen up the defense, but this isn’t something I want.

RB – This backfield is a mess. Cam Akers isn’t officially out, but still isn’t practicing with an ankle injury. Malcolm Brown is questionable and Darrell Henderson is on IR. If Akers is out, we’re looking at possibly Xavier Jones with a backup quarterback and not having one of their top wideouts. Yikes.

*Update* Akers is a game time decision on he last game of the slate, so there’s not a ton of safety of using him. The potential for this offense to be a disaster is too high for my liking.

WR – If we have even a little bit of faith in Wolford or coach Sean McVay, Robert Woods might well be a bargain. Cooper Kupp is “not likely to be available” according to McVay which leaves a gaping hole on the passing game. Kupp was responsible for 23.7% of the target share and 22.7% of the air yards share, which now needs replaced. Woods is the obvious guy to step up, as his numbers basically mirror Kupp’s all the way around. My fear is there is simply not enough talent around him to make this play work. Patrick Peterson has been bad but Arizona might be able to triple cover Woods in this game.

That slo brings Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson to consideration, but I’m not sure how much. Jefferson only has a 20.3% snap rate so this would be a big leap for him to play a ton of snaps. Reynolds plays a lot more at 71.4% but I think the answer is still in the run game. The Rams will play a lot of two tight end sets if I had to guess, so this is mostly just Woods and maybe a 1/20 share of Reynolds. Someone still has to get them the ball.

TE – I might actually play Tyler Higbee a little bit even though his route rate continues to be low at 55.7%. I don’t think he runs more routes, but the snap share of 78.7% might go up this game, as will Gerald Everett. Higbee only has an 11.3% target share on the year and five RZ looks, but he’ll help replace the gap from Kupp. He’s not a high priority target, but is a potential GPP option.

D/ST – I never really mind them, but containing Kyler can be a challenge. They only sacked him twice the first time around and that was when he really wasn’t running to help nurse a shoulder injury. I will have other priorities, even though the Rams are always capable of a big effort with 49 total sacks and 21 turnovers forced.

Cash – None

GPP – Woods, Higbee, Reynolds, D/ST

Seahawks at 49ers, O/U of 46 (Seahawks -6.5)

Seahawks

QB – I’m not sure if anyone has noticed, but Russell Wilson hasn’t been cooking much of anything lately. In his last six games, he only has one contest with more than 32 attempts and that just makes little sense. The Seahawks continue to try and go back to their roots of running and defense, and Russ has suffered. He hasn’t thrown for over 263 yards in six games and he’s been over two passing touchdowns just once. In four of those six, he’s only thrown one. The volume has really taken a hit and I’m not sure I’d want to spend on him at all outside of MME formats. The 49ers won’t roll over and die here and have the eighth-best DVOA against the pass.

RB – Chris Carson is limited at practice again but that has been the case for weeks. Seattle does have an outside shot at the number one seed (a small check mark for Russ too, but still) so I expect Carson to have another 18 touches or more. The 49ers are tough on the ground too but Carson’s price might be the most appealing of Seattle. He’s going to get 15 carries and his role in the passing game is always underrated with an 11.9% share. He’s played at least 63% of the snaps the past two weeks so I trust him in all formats.

WR – You can’t make me stop playing D.K. Metcalf, I’ll tell you that. If I’m spending the salary on one of the Seattle studs between him and Russ, it’s DK likely 90 times out of 100. It’s been tough sledding for him too with the downturn of Russ but he still has just under a 40% air yards share and leads in targets by two. Metcalf almost seems due one more monster game in the regular season and the matchup is a little easier now with Richard Sherman not active. Jason Verrett has been excellent this year and is top 30 in most metrics we value, but he’s quite small against Metcalf.

Tyler Lockett has not been a part of my lineups almost the entire year and that will continue. Even though he is under $6,000 and only has two fewer targets than Metcalf, he’s paid off this price for 3x just three times all year. He’s had two good games, two nuclear ones and then a bunch of replacement value games and he’s too expensive for that.

TE – I will not play a Seattle tight end on anything but a showdown slate and those are pretty much over for the season, so I’m out. Jacob Hollister has 13 targets over the past month with a ceiling of 9.7 and floor of 3.0. He has to score for just 3x and the 49ers have allowed just four touchdowns on the season. It’s too thin of a play.

D/ST – If you’re not looking at Arizona, Seattle fits the bill here. They’ve climbed to 16th in total DVOA, which is impressive for how bad they were to start the season. They haven’t scored under five DK points since Week 9 and the addition of Carlos Dunlap was quite the add. A healthy Jamal Adams was monstrous too and the 49ers are the walking wounded on offense.

Cash – Carson, D/ST

GPP – Metcalf, Russ

49ers

QB – We’ll be treated to another C.J. Beathard game and I’m really not willing to bite on the last game. Sure, he managed to throw three touchdowns but he lost a fumble and went just 13-22 for 182 yards. That’s not going to get it done on most games and the only way you can make the case is in garbage time. I’d rather take chances elsewhere with some more talented options. I think Seattle causes some issues for the passing game this week.

RB – I’m not sure if I thought I would say this two weeks in a row, but Jeff Wilson is probably still too cheap. Even if you take away the unlikely receiving score, he still would have been over 20 DK points and that will play. Do I think he rushes for 183 yards again? Not particularly but if he can manage another 20 touches I’m going to be interested. Seattle is 10th in DVOA against the run but I trust the San Fran system more than that ranking. They have a good running game and it can give teams fits. If this game stays close, Wilson can still do some serious damage. He played 70% of the snaps last week and that is appealing at this salary.

WR – San Fran is down to Kendrick Bourne and Richie James as their lead options with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on the shelf. I have mild interest especially in Bourne since I don’t think the 49ers can run and hide in this game. They’re going to need some plays in the passing game and Bourne is one of the best bets to move the ball. We can’t take the 14% target share too seriously since the top two options are out, so Bourne is a solid value. James has one massive game to his credit, so he’s a bare minimum dart throw but probably not much more. I do have to assume that Seattle matches Bourne with Shaquill Griffin, and that could be an issue. Griffin has allowed just a 1.60 pPT and a 10.4 YPR.

TE – I honestly don’t know why the 49ers would let George Kittle play. He’s that dude and I know he wants to play, but it would be silly of the organization to let him. He’s got his money, and it’s been a long season filled with injuries. If he’s active, I wouldn’t mess with him after a 50% snap share last week. He only had five targets which won’t pay the bills at his price. Just play Mark Andrews in a game the Ravens need to win.

D/ST – I prefer the Seattle defense, but any unit against the Seahawks is in play. Wilson has been sacked at a top five rate and that can lead to mistakes. The 49ers only have 28 on the season and are beat up on that side of the ball, which is why I’d just play Seattle.

Cash – Wilson, possibly Bourne

GPP – James

Core Four

Derrick Henry, Alexander Mattison, Jarvis Landry, Myles Gaskin

I want to stress that Mattison is CASH ONLY to match the chalk. The staff is split on him. Jason wrote him up for his content, Stix hates him. He’s projecting at massive ownership in cash, so you just have to eat that. In GPP, I’m going heavy on Tennessee stacks. Henry speaks for himself this week, while I want big parts of Gaskin and Landry. The former will likely have at least 20 touches and Landry should have a field day against a Steelers defense who isn’t playing anyone.

Win and In

Tennessee – Tannehill, Henry, Brown, Davis, Smith

Miami – Tua, Gaskin, Bowden, Gesicki (possibly Parker)

Baltimore – Jackson, Dobbins, Brown, Andrews

Cleveland – Baker, Chubb, Hunt, Landry, Higgins, Hooper

Los Angeles – Wolford, TBD on backs, Woods, Higbee

Chicago – Trubisky, Monty, Robinson, Mooney, Graham

Win and Need Help

Indy – Rivers, Taylor, Pascal, TY, Pittman

Arizona – Kyler, Drake, Hopkins

Dallas (and they won’t know the Washington result while playing, so they are really one of the most appealing teams) – Dalton, Zeke, Gallup, Cooper, Lamb, Schultz

New York – Jones, Gallman, Shepard, Engram

Playing for Seeding

Buffalo – Allen, Singletary/Moss, Diggs, Knox

Pittsburgh – Technically they are, but have already benched Big Ben. My interest is really just Rudolph and Washington

Green Bay – Rodgers, Jones, Adams, Tonyan

New Orleans – Brees, Murray

Seattle – This is NOT likely, so they run the risk of benching early. Russ, Carson, Metcalf

Tampa Bay – Brady, RoJo, Evans, AB, Godwin, Gronkowski

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