Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 16
This week is kind of a boring one. We have the shortest slate we’ve had in a long time with just 10 games. There’s not a lot of games with juice, although some could turn into some solid contests. We still have a lot of work to do and money to make, so let’s hop to it in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 16!
Colts at Steelers, O/U of 45 (Colts -1)
Colts – Pace is 17th
QB – I certainly can’t advocate Philip Rivers that strongly on this slate. The price is appealing and the matchup isn’t as terrifying as it used to be, but can Rivers score more than 20 DK here? Or ever for that matter? He’s only 20th in pDB at 0.44, 15th in touchdowns at 20 and not inside the top 10 in attempts overall. We’d really like to see more touchdowns considering Rivers is sixth in RZ attempts, but here we are. The metrics that I’m holding onto the most are his completion rates under pressure and the deep ball. Rivers sits fifth under pressure at 50.8% and eighth in deep ball at 46.2%. With the Steelers defense battered by injuries, Rivers has potential to hit a couple deep balls and smash that salary. However, I don’t put a lot of faith in that and Rivers would be MME only for me.
RB – Jonathan Taylor is still an excellent target even at his salary and the relatively tough matchup. Anytime he’s going to get 20 touches, Taylor has massive appeal. He’s ripping off chunk yardage anymore with at least a 5.2 YPC over his past three games. The Steelers have shown cracks against the run at multiple points this season and the defense is floundering a little bit. Some of that is cyclical from their offense just vomiting all over themselves lately, but it’s still starting to show. Pittsburgh is still third in DVOA against the run but I’m betting on the talent of the Colts offensive line and Taylor. I think he may well be one of my primary GPP targets on the slate.
WR – Why do you hate me T.Y. Hilton? I finally gave in and bought all the way in to Hilton and he flopped. He’s still the same exact price as last week and we just saw the floor, so we should tread carefully. The Colts offense is so spread out that it’s easy to see where the bad game comes from any given week. Hilton has the air yards share lead at 29.8% and the target share lead at 18.2%. The latter number is really not what we’re looking for in a lead target and he’s playing only about 65% of the snaps. He should also face the toughest Steelers corner in Joe Haden who sits ninth in pPT and third in completion rate allowed.
Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal are playing the majority of the snaps but it’s harder to get behind them in a thin passing game. Sure, Pascal went off last week but that was the first time he’s been in double-digit DK points since Week 9. That’s not the play I’m looking for all that much, especially with only a 12.8% target share. Steven Nelson should face the rookie Pittman and Nelson is up to a 110.1 passer rating allowed even with a 56.7% completion rate.
TE – As long as there’s a three-headed monster of Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox and Trey Burton, I’m out on this mess. I don’t even want to say “touchdown or bust” since they all play at least 40% of the snaps so you’re just shooting darts blindly.
D/ST – The way the Pittsburgh offense is playing right now, this may well be one of the better plays on the board. Indy generates pressure at about a 25% rate, top 10 in football. They are also only two turnovers off the league lead and the Steelers are abysmal right now with little reason to think something suddenly snaps the right way.
Cash – D/ST
GPP – Taylor, Rivers, Hilton, Pittman
Steelers – Pace is 24th
QB – Even if I played 150 lineups, I wouldn’t touch Ben Roethlisberger on this slate. I can confidently say I can’t remember a time where he has played worse for this long of a period. It’s mistake after mistake and he honestly doesn’t look like he can see the field right now. The past two games have produced four turnovers to just three touchdowns and he hasn’t cracked 190 yards passing. Indy is still sixth against the pass in DVOA and stand to be a stiff test. The Pittsburgh offense has a myriad of issues, including not being able to complete a pass downfield. Once you factor in Big Ben is the QB7 in salary, this is a very easy pass.
RB – Benny Snell may have run for 84 yards Monday night but I don’t think he or James Conner can replicate that feat this week. For starters, the Colts are fifth in DVOA against the run and have only allowed 1,099 rushing yards to backs in 14 games. They have allowed 13 total touchdowns but chasing just that might not be advisable against this defense. If the offense can’t move the ball (Indy is seventh in total yards allowed per game) I can’t see how any back pays off this week. We have better options.
WR – I fully believe that the receivers are priced correctly here. Diontae Johnson should be the most expensive option and he’s still viable on DK. He owns a 23.5% target share, is tied for the lead in EZ targets and is the leader in yardage. We saw Monday even when Ben is unusable, Diontae can still pay off. The biggest issue is Johnson has what could be his toughest matchup of the season in Xavier Rhodes. The veteran corner is top 15 in pPT, passer rating and catch rate allowed. With the route tree being fairly shallow due to the quarterback, it’s a tough route to take in playing Diontae. You guys know how much this pains me to say.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is on the board but he just hasn’t been reliable this season. Even Diontae seems to churn out yardage while JuJu hasn’t been over 55 yards receiving since Week 10. Chase Claypool is the deep threat in the offense for the most part, and has said above 60% of the snaps lately. The trick is getting him the ball and that seems to be as difficult as putting a man on the moon for this offense. Claypool does get Rock Ya-Sin, who has been a weak link for the Colts defense. He’s allowed a 13.9 YPR and a 71.2% catch rate. Ya-Sin also is giving up a speed advantage with a 4.5 40-yard dash and Claypool threatening a 4.3. If anyone, I’d play Claypool and hope lightning strikes for a longer touchdown.
TE – Eric Ebron missed the first practice of the week and that could open the door for a Vance McDonald punt play. He played 92% of the snaps on Monday night after Ebron left early with injury. The obvious issue was he wasn’t targeted but I would think that changes with a full week of practice running as the tight end one. Having said that, it’s not a play in cash with the Pittsburgh offense in such a miserable funk. The Colts allow the fifth-fewest DK points to the position on top of it, so Vance would be GPP only.
*Update* Ebron practiced in full so he’ll be playing. That doesn’t mean I’m interested.
D/ST – I won’t have any Steelers defense this week. Not only are they being sabotaged by the offense, they aren’t exactly playing well themselves. They forced no turnovers and only had two sacks last week and are missing so many pieces. They still lead the league in sacks and pressure rate but the trend is decidedly downward and the salary is not.
Cash – None
GPP – Claypool, Diontae, Ebron
Falcons at Chiefs, O/U of 54 (Chiefs -10.5)
Falcons – Pace is 3rd
QB – We have not been able to trust Matt Ryan at all this season, but this seems like a spot where he is underpriced and we should be interested. The Chiefs are going to score and Ryan should easily go over 40 attempts. We’ve talked about needing the volume since he’s only 26th in pDB at 0.41. Ryan has crawled up to 22 passing touchdowns and he does sit third in passing yards. Kansas City has fallen to 13th in DVOA against the pass and they’ve allowed 24 touchdown passes. With a negative game script on tap, we could see Ryan go over 25 DK points just like last week. He’s pretty underpriced for the likeliest outcome of this game.
RB – Coach Raheem Morris said to the press that Ito Smith is now the lead runner and that’s cool for him I guess. He’s still only totaled 37 rush attempts the past four games and even at minimum price, that doesn’t move the needle. Sure, the Chiefs struggle against the run as they are 30th in DVOA and bottom 12 in rush yards to backs given up. The issue is how long the Falcons can keep this game close enough to continue to run, and in my eyes it won’t be very long.
WR – I don’t know how easy it’s going to be to get exposure to Calvin Ridley, but we may need to try in a game stack. He’s been phenomenal the past three weeks when Atlanta has asked him to do more without Julio Jones through some of that time. He’s totaled 395 yards on 23 receptions with two touchdowns in that time span. He’s been a monster and he should be with a 52% air yards share and 30.8% target share the past three weeks. Charvarius Ward is mostly going to be tasked to play Ridley and Ward has allowed a 14.4 YPR, 108.5 passer rating and a 1.80 pPT.
I tend to think Russell Gage is still too cheap. Even with Julio playing in the Saints game, Gage has still earned a 21.4% target share and has three straight games over 15 DK. Being $3,400 cheaper than Ridley helps out a lot as well, which makes it a lot easier to play Gage in the passing game. He’s mostly in the slot at about 62.5% and that leaves him on some of L’Jarius Sneed. Gage will have a rotating matchup pending where he lines up at but Sneed has been excellent on 38 targets. He’s only allowed 18 receptions for 180 yards in limited playing time. The individual matchups don’t worry me a lot here since the volume should overcome those concerns for both Ridley and Gage.
TE – It pretty much figures that when I say Hayden Hurst has disappeared from the offense, he goes out and scores. Now, he didn’t do a whole lot more with just a 4/21 line but in this environment, I don’t hate the punt. He’s actually tied in RZ targets over the past three weeks and that helps mitigate the fact he’s not doing much else. KC has allowed the sixth-most yardage and seven scores. I think a very interesting stack could be Hurst/Gage/Tyreek/Kelce and then pick a quarterback depending on who you can afford.
D/ST – We know better.
Cash – Ridley, Gage, Ryan
GPP – Hurst
Chiefs – Pace is 13th
QB – It’s going to take some doing, but Patrick Mahomes is in one of the best spots he could ever ask for. Atlanta is 19th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. Additionally, they’re let up the fourth-most touchdown passes in 28 on the season. Mahomes is fourth in pDB, second in points per game, first in yards and third in touchdowns. He gets to face a pass funnel defense and is worth the top dollar on the slate. We don’t need to spend a lot of time here to explain this is one of the best plays you can make if you can afford him.
RB – All the attention will be on Le‘Veon Bell with Clyde Edwards-Helaire not playing this week. Bell produced on 16 touches last week and some of that was at the end of the game just to run out the clock. When he’s in the actual offense, the ceiling could be higher. The matchup is actually stout on the ground as Atlanta is fourth in DVOA against the run. Only the Bucs have allowed fewer rushing yards to the running backs but they have allowed the fifth-most receptions. My early read would say he’s chalky, but it’s not like he’s priced differently than CEH. If the passing game goes lower rostered than it should, all the better for leverage.
WR – Tyreek Hill had an ultra-rare “down” game and still hit 17 DK points last week. I say down game because he was held under 55 yards receiving against the Saints but that is not likely to happen here. Hill is still in the slot about 35% of the time but he’ll face a good bit of Darqueze Dennard and the football gods themselves might not be able to help Dennard in this spot. He runs a 4.51 40-yard dash and has allowed a 97.2 passer rating on 61 targets. Hill’s speed is going to absolutely roast him. I’m sure Atlanta will try to help, but every team does and Hill still gets his every week. Among receivers who have played at least 10 games, Hill is ninth in air yards share at 36.6% and that’s all we need from Mahomes.
Sammy Watkins continues to be the ultimate leverage inside the Chiefs passing game. There’s going to come a week where he goes 5/70 with a touchdown or two and infuriates everyone who paid up for Hill or Travis Kelce. Just like Hill, Watkins is in the slot for about 36% of his snaps which speaks to the movement of this offense. It’s one of the myriad of reasons it’s so difficult to defend. Watkins will likely see the most of Isaiah Oliver, who’s allowed a 1.90 pPT and a 113.5 passer rating. We want to be on him the week he goes off.
*Update* Tyreek is going to play, but the hammy leaves him questionable. This would be a textbook week for Watkins to go off. I also have a much higher interest in Kelce.
TE – Travis Kelce is still underpriced for his production, regardless of his position. He also had a “down” game last week for yardage, being held under 70. He still scored 22 DK and that just speaks to the nuclear upside of both he and Hill. He can break the single-season record for a tight end in receiving yards this week and he gets the spot to do it in. Atlanta is tied for the second-most receptions allowed and seventh-most yards to go along with nine scores. Just give me all the KC passing game once again, especially if it doesn’t garner the attention it deserves.
D/ST – Matt Ryan is top 10 in pressure rate so there’s a good chance the Chiefs defense makes a couple splash plays in this game. They have 25 sacks on the season and are tied for the fifth-most takeaways in football. If you’re in this price range, they make plenty of sense with more chances for sacks and turnovers if Atlanta passes more.
Cash – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Bell (chalkiest in cash)
GPP – Watkins
Browns at Jets, O/U of 47.5 (Browns -9.5)
Browns – Pace is 29th
QB – Suddenly now that Baker Mayfield has games that he can throw the football in weather-wise, he’s playing extremely good football. The last three weeks he’s popped off for a combined nine touchdowns to just two turnovers, and the Browns offense is humming. Baker is actually better than the perception or the salary on DK. He’s 12th in pDB and touchdowns, despite being just 19th in attempts. Mayfield is also 11th in air yards so when he does pass, he’s pushing he ball downfield. The Jets are 29th in DVOA against the pass and even if the game script doesn’t demand a big volume of attempts for Mayfield, he can be played in any format at his price.
RB – Nick Chubb is one of the better running backs in football and the salary is deserved but I’m not sure I’m going there with him this week. First, the salary is going to be the highest on the board. I believe this week lends itself to cheaper backs with higher-priced receivers and we’ll touch on that later. Secondly, the matchup isn’t great. I do think Chubb is mostly matchup proof but we can’t ignore the Jets are ninth in DVOA against the run and hold opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game. I don’t think Chubb is a “bad” play, he’s just one that I’m not going overboard to get into a lineup. Kareem Hunt almost always gets double-digit touches, but generally will need a touchdown to really pay off and I think he’s overpriced.
WR – The first glance may lead you to think Jarvis Landry is overpriced but that’s not really the case. Since the Odell Beckham injury, Landry owns a 28% target share and 37.8% of the RZ target share. His six EZ targets leads the team as well and he’s the main cog in the passing game. He’s down to just 46% of snaps in the slot, so his matchup is certainly not set in stone. The most likely corner is Arthur Maulet, who has been targeted 26 times and allowed 20 receptions. Landry with Baker is my favorite way to attack the Jets defense in cash game settings.
The tournament play is Rashard Higgins, who has found new life lately. He leads in air yards share since OBJ went down with a 31.7% mark. Higgins is also second in RZ targets and comes significantly cheaper. Primarily playing on the boundary, he should face a lot of Lamar Jackson. Through his 39 targets, he’s allowed a 14.0 YPR and a 109.9 passer rating. The Monday Night Football broadcast talked about how the Browns pass early to punt the rock late, so we can possibly get some fireworks from this passing game right out of the gate.
*Update* Well…that changed abruptly. Almost the whole receiver room is not playing in this game and that’s a big switch the night before. I think both Chubb and Hunt get a pretty big bump. Hunt should likely play a lot of slot receiver and he’s going to be a nice value on DK especially. We can also look more towards the tight end position to get some value targets with Hooper and maybe even David Njoku and Harrison Bryant.
TE – It’s a little hard to size up Austin Hooper. He’s missed three game since the OBJ injury but does still have a 13.7% target share. I suppose that’s not awful for his price tag and the matchup is a cakewalk. No team has allowed more than the 13 scores to tight ends than the Jets, and they allow the most DK points per game. In the touchdown or bust category of tight ends, you could do worse than Hooper. He does have four EZ targets in his five games played and he may only need one this week.
D/ST – If it’s a defense that boasts Myles Garrett and now Denzel Ward is back, we’re interested against the Jets.
Cash – Hunt, Chubb, Hooper
GPP – Baker, D/ST
Jets – Pace is 14th
Just like last week, don’t play Jets. They upset the Rams last week and not one of heir main offensive players crossed 15 DK points. Sam Darnold scored 14, Frank Gore touched the ball 24 times and scored 13 and Jamison Crowder scored 12 DK. Scores like that just really aren’t helpful. If the receiver corps comes into this game beat up with injuries, we’ll reevaluate.
Giants at Ravens, O/U of 43.5 (Ravens -10.5)
Giants – Pace is 19th
QB – The early read would suggest that Daniel Jones is back in the lineup this week, but we really shouldn’t care for fantasy. Jones has 14 turnovers to just nine touchdowns this season through 12 games, which is putrid. He’s 32nd in pDB at 0.33 and 30th in points per game. Now factor in that Baltimore is top 12 in DVOA against the pass and there’s no reason to play Jones this week, especially if that hammy is still bugging him a little bit.
RB – This backfield turned into a gross mess in a hurry. Last week saw Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris split 16 carries to a 9-7 ratio with Gallman eking out the lead on attempts. He played under 50% of the snaps for the first time since Week 9 and that won’t come close to cutting it at his current price tag. The Ravens are sixth in DVOA against the run and have only allowed backs to rush for 1,243 yards. This is an easy fade for me and we can let others deal with this headache.
WR – If Jones is back, I guess I’m moderately interested in Sterling Shepard? Someone has to catch the ball in this offense and he’s got a 23.8% target share through the eight games since returning from injury. He also paces the team in PPR points and is cheap on DK, which is easily his best format. Shepard has been on the outside most with just a 23.1% slot rate. That likely leaves him on Marcus Peters who is allowing a 65.3% catch rate and a 13.1 YPR.
Golden Tate is in line to miss the game, which could slightly help Darious Slayton. He remains the home run hitter in an offense that can’t really hit home runs, so it’s a pretty thin play. The aDOT is 13.7 and that explains why he has 21 receptions to 41 for Shepard (who is at an 8.1 aDOT). I don’t have a compelling reason to play Slayton this week.
TE – If there’s another Giant to be played, it’s Evan Engram. He’s the target leader since Week 7 to go along with nine RZ targets, also the team lead. He’s under $4,000 so he fills the punt category at his position. The Giants are underdogs here so they should be throwing a good bit. The Ravens are below average in receptions and yards allowed to the tight end, but have only allowed five scores. Engram can pay off in PPR settings, but he’s not a preferred play.
D/ST – They actually aren’t a bad defense with 20 turnovers forced and 34 sacks, but the Ravens offense is clicking right now. It’s not a great matchup but it could be worth a punt in MME formats. Baltimore can put up points, but they are not flawless on that side of the ball.
Cash – None, Engram is closest
GPP – Shepard, D/ST
Ravens – Pace is 31st
QB – It’s nice to see the 2019 Lamar Jackson finally show up. He’s now eclipsed 26 DK over the past three weeks with a 37 mixed in. For once, a big score for Lamar came without rushing for a ton of yards as he only ran for 35 against Jacksonville but totaled four touchdowns. He’s a really fascinating GPP candidate. If folks spend into this range, they almost surely just spend the extra $500 and go to Mahomes. These players get it done differently but the ceilings really aren’t that far apart with Jackson’s legs. Despite some uneven play this year, he’s still third in pDB and seventh in points per game. He’s also second in rushing yards per game at the position and fourth in touchdowns, so he could be a slate breaking play at what is likely under 5% rostered this week.
RB – Seeing the Giants hold Nick Chubb in check could lower the interest on J.K. Dobbins for some, but not for me. Dobbins only played 53% of the snaps largely because of blowout last week. He still had 15 touches and if that’s the floor….Dobbins is probably still a little too cheap here. New York is only 15th in DVOA against the run which isn’t intimidating at all. Gus Edwards is going to get some touches, but Dobbins has clearly taken over the backfield. If the Giants can keep it closer than the Jags did last week, Dobbins has 20 touch upside and multi-touchdown upside. He only trails Lamar in RZ attempts with a 21-28 ratio.
WR – Marquise Brown really isn’t that bad of a play this week *ducks*. It’s been a very poor and frustrating year for the second-year receiver but he’s picked it up lately, scoring at least 13 DK in the last four weeks. Now, the big issue when playing Hollywood is the fact that James Bradberry will be back and he’s been very solid so far. Bradberry has only allowed a 1.60 pPT and a 79.8 passer rating. That certainly leaves Brown as a GPP only target but his 38.9% of the air yards share ranks fifth among receivers who have played 10 games.
The secondary receivers don’t leave us with much right now. Willie Snead, Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin all get snaps and all but Dez played over 50% las week. Dez and Boykin both caught touchdowns but they did almost nothing else. Snead leads this group in target share at 14.6% but I’m really uninterested as a group. Playing receiver roulette with a team that is dead last in pass attempts per game is not leading to green very often.
TE – One of the main reasons we can’t go to secondary receivers is Mark Andrews and his role in the passing game. He also played just over 50% of the snaps in the blowout but paid off with a 5/66/1 line and has that ability every single slate. The Giants have been solid to the high ends, including only allowing four touchdowns on the season. However, Andrews is a different animal and owns a 22.5% target share and has the RZ target lead on the team. No Raven pass catcher has more than his seven touchdowns and anytime he’s under $6,000, he feels underpriced. With only one elite tight end on the slate, Andrews is a cost-effective alternate if you don’t want to punt and won’t spend on Kelce.
D/ST – It’s not easy to fit their salary, but Jones is a turnover factory. Baltimore has forced 20 takeaways on the season and are one of two teams blitzing over 40% on the season (42.9%). With Jones sporting a 31.6% completion rate under pressure, the upside for the Ravens is easy to see even at the price.
Cash – Lamar, Dobbins, Andrews
GPP – Brown, D/ST
Bengals at Texans, O/U of 46 (Texans -7.5)
Bengals – Pace is 18th
QB – We’re not 100% who the quarterback is but Brandon Allen is “on track to be available if we need him”, according to Coach Zac Taylor. That seems to read as Ryan Finley is going to start after helping upset the Steelers this past week, and he probably deserves to be. He definitely missed some throws and only accounted for 89 (!!) passing yards but totaled two touchdowns. He found his rushing legs late in that game and I don’t wonder if that’s something the Bengals will incorporate more moving forward. I’m not here to say he’s Lamar 2.0 or anything like that, but a few zone reads and bootleg action could help this offense (and run game specifically) in the short-term. Finley doesn’t do much for me even in a spot against the 28th ranked team in DVOA against the pass, but this next man surely does.
RB – Gio Bernard is a building block for me in cash at this price tag. I know it’s been hit or miss with him as far as results, but the Bengals showed they will ride him into the ground if they can. He had 26 touches last week and the 25 rush attempts is easily his high water mark on the season. Even if he gets closer to 18 touches, the matchup is set for him to smash this price. Houston is 29th in DVOA against the run and it’s a defense we target every week. They’ve allowed 1,916 rushing yards to running backs which is most in the NFL. On top of that, backs have added another 615 yards receiving (seventh-most) and scored 18 times. If the Bengals trail, Gio is involved in the passing game with a 9.8% target share. That’s not shabby for a backup. He’s simply far too cheap in a goat matchup, at least in cash if nothing else.
WR – The sad thing about this game is we absolutely cannot trust any receiver. As I mentioned, Finley went 7/13 for just 89 yards and I’m not sold on him at all. The one aspect that could potentially shift my opinion at least a little is the status of Tyler Boyd. He suffered a scary-looking concussion on Monday and has yet to practice. If he’s out, Tee Higgins is going to see targets. The quality of said targets is up for debate, but he saw six of the 13 attempts last week. He’d face off against Phillip Gaines or Vernon Hargreaves, and both players have allowed over a 1.90 pPT and a 114.4 passer rating or higher. We could also turn to A.J. Green as a pure punt as he played over 90% of the snaps. With the individual matchups looking so good, they can be considered but only in GPP.
*Update* Boyd is out and I have moderate interest in Higgins.
TE – Drew Sample is down to a 71.6% route rate, which is 16th in the league. He’s on the field at a top-ten rate but he’s only sporting a 9.7% target share and has only 10 RZ targets on the season. I think there are better punts on the board for a full slate.
D/ST – They played lights out on Monday and any defense against the Texans is at least in some type of consideration. They’ve allowed a top 10 pressure rate, but I’m really unsure if the Bengals can take advantage. They only have a 17.7% pressure rate which is second-lowest and are tied for the second-fewest sacks at 16. They can be used as a punt, but anything over three points might be a bonus.
Cash – Gio
GPP – Higgins, Green, D/ST
Texans – Pace is 12th
QB – It’s really kind of crazy how Deshaun Watson just keeps spitting out massive fantasy games in the face of adversity. Tough defense on the other side? No problem. Down your best receiver? I’ll make this dude from the practice squad relevant, don’t worry. All Watson does is produce and I’ll bet a good bit he won’t be rostered enough like usual. He’s top 10 in pDB, points per game, touchdowns and yards. On top of that, he’s sixth in rushing yards among quarterbacks and the matchup isn’t scary. Don’t take Monday into account too heavily. The Bengals were fired up in a divisional matchup. This is a big letdown spot on a short week. They’re 27th in DVOA against the pass and I won’t be surprised in the least if Watson goes for 25+ yet again.
RB – It’s not very often that we see a running back score 27 DK points when they have all of TWENTY SEVEN yards rushing and not score a touchdown. David Johnson accomplished that feat last week on the back of 11 receptions for 106 yards. That came with Duke Johnson and C.J. Prosise both out and that needs to be the case again if I’m looking at Johnson at this price tag. He’s expensive for a back that only has 479 rushing yards on the season through 10 games and 11 of his 27 receptions came last week. This just really seems like chasing to a big extent. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs but this is really a scary play salary-wise in my opinion. Let’s double back to see if Duke or Prosise are active.
*Update* Duke is out, but Prosise is in. David Johnson is just too pricey in my eyes.
WR – We only have a three game sample size without Will Fuller but the metrics do matter. Brandin Cooks leads in target share at an even 20% but the ball distribution has been spread out pretty evenly. Chad Hansen, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins and Johnson all have shares of at least 14% so there’s not exactly one alpha option to turn to. Perhaps the biggest aspect to stand out is the RZ and EZ targets for Coutee. He has four and three respectively, both to lead the team. He also has the lowest aDOT at 9.4 while Hansen and Cooks are above 12.0 each. Coutee is mostly the slot receiver at a 57.6% rate which should put him on Mackensie Alexander. The Bengals corner has allowed a catch rate over 70% so I actually like Coutee the best of the options.
Cooks remains my least favorite in general terms. He’s got the target share lead but it’s not overwhelming and I’ve said I don’t think he can be a number one anymore in a passing game. On top of that, William Jackson is playing good football for Cincy. He’s inside the top 20 in pPT, passer rating allowed and in the top 10 in catch rate allowed at 53.6%. Hansen will still be the GPP only option. He’s still playing over 90% of the snaps which is great and gets LeShaun Sims. Across 63 targets, Sims has allowed an 81% completion rate and a massive 2.30 pPT. If the Bengals leave him on the field, Hansen has long touchdown potential.
TE – You could make the argument that Watson shouldn’t throw to Akins so much, since he has 80 combined receiving yards across the last three games on 10 receptions. The Bengals have allowed the third-most yards to the position, which I suppose puts Akins on the board as a punt option. It’s still not one I enjoy and Akins rarely crosses 55-60% of the snaps so it’s a thin play.
D/ST – This is too expensive for a defense that has created just eight takeaways (dead last by four) and has 32 sacks. If they were a punt price, we’d be talking. As it stands, no thank you.
Cash – Watson, Coutee
GPP – Johnson, Hansen, Cooks, Akins
Bears at Jaguars, O/U of 47.5 (Bears -7.5)
Bears – Pace is 15th
QB – The Bears get ANOTHER great spot, and that’s been about a month-long trend for them. They’re touring the worst defenses in football and this week the bus stops in Jacksonville. What that means for Mitchell Trubisky is murky, at best. Since taking back over as the starter, he’s had two games of about 14 DK and two over 21 DK. The Bears have scored 30+ in three straight but it hasn’t been because of Trubisky in those games. He’s playing competently, but has been under 30 attempts twice. I’d have to lean that way again if they can get away with it. Without multiple touchdown passes, the ceiling isn’t very likely for Trubisky. The matchup is pristine with the Jags sitting dead last in DVOA against the pass but Trubisky is still just GPP for me as he’s 16th in pDB at 0.47. If he throws under 30 attempts, it may not end well.
RB – You know what’s kind of crazy? David Montgomery is 10th in scrimmage yards this season. That’s right, 10th with 1,255 total yards. He joins only Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones as players in the top 10 that haven’t played a full 14 games, either. Jacksonville is better in DVOA against the run but still down at 23rd. Chicago really loaded up Monty last week with 32 carries and this is awesome to see as his previous high in attempts was 21. The Jags have allowed the third-most rushing yards to backs and an additional 630 receiving yards. With the game script likely in his favor, Monty should be the workhorse once again. If we spend up at running back, I have Monty>Chubb on this slate.
WR – It should come as no surprise at all, but Allen Robinson has gone as Trubisky has gone over the past four. When Turbisky has posted a big score, A-Rob has gone for 27 and 30 DK. If Trubisky was quiet, Robinson has been at 12 and 13. That obviously makes sense, and is a big reason why I’m shying away from Robinson this week. Chicago is a big enough favorite that they shouldn’t have to throw a ton. They can say anything they want, but Jacksonville DOES NOT want to win. They’re in the drivers seat for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft. Robins has a 25.7% target share and a 31.4% air yards share in the offense and the matchup isn’t scary at all. Jacksonville is on their third-string corners and could be without Sidney Jones again. The only concern is game script and volume.
I’m sticking with Darnell Mooney over Anthony Miller. Since we project the Bears to not pass, we need the lightning strike touchdown. Mooney is tied with Miller at eight EZ targets but the 13.0 aDOT is the highest on the team. That could go a long way at his price and corner Tre Herndon has allowed a 74.3% catch rate and 112.2 passer rating on 74 targets.
TE – The results stunk but Cole Kmet played every single snap for the offense for the first time in his career. That’s one heck of a good sign moving forward. He only saw two targets and is still within that range of outcomes this week, but it’s a sweetheart matchup. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most touchdowns to the position and that plants Kmet firmly in the punt category. Jimmy Graham has a 13.3% target share but if that starts shifting to Kmet, he’s way too cheap.
D/ST – The Bears are just an average fantasy defense, as they only have 33 sacks and 15 turnovers on the season. I don’t think it’s a terrible play, but the price is not that friendly for the likely outcome. Jacksonville does have 14 interceptions on the year and it comes down to who’s starting at quarterback.
Cash – Monty, Kmet
GPP – Robinson, Trubisky, Mooney, D/ST
Jaguars – Pace is 6th
QB – The coaching staff is no saying who will start in this game. Both Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon are going to get reps with the first team during the week. Remember how I said that the Jags don’t want to win this game? I wouldn’t be surprised if the starter is Glennon. Minshew went 22-29 last week for 226 yards and two touchdowns. That’s not a “split reps with the backup” next week at practice style of game. If it’s Glennon, there’s no chance I’m playing him. I’d honestly rather play Finley.
RB – James Robinson is expected to play this week, which seemed like a long shot with how his ankle got rolled up last week against the Ravens. His volume keeps him in the running no matter what. This man got 19 touches last week in a complete blowout. Chicago is fifth in DVOA against the run and it’s not a spot we want to write home about. With a possible lingering ankle injury, tough matchup and potential backup quarterback, Robinson is an easy fade outside of MME formats.
WR – I don’t see how any receiver really is going to stand out here, especially with Glennon. D.J. Chark does lead in target share at 20.1% and he does come very cheap, but there’s a reason for that. He’s not been great for fantasy this year. That’s not even accounting for the fact he’d likely see most of Kyle Fuller, who has only allowed a 55.4% completion rate on 92 targets.
Laviska Shenault will face fellow rookie Jaylon Johnson for much of the game and Johnson leads the league in pass break-ups with 16. He’s top 15 in completion rate at 56.8% and has the upper hand in this spot. Buster Skrine faces off with Keelan Cole in the slot and that is likely the best possible spot to attack. Skrine has allowed a massive 72.7% completion rate and a 112.7 passer rating. Cole is right about a 15% target share and a 15.3% share of RZ targets so for only $3,500, he could work in the projected game script.
TE – Chicago has really scuffled with tight ends this season, allowing 10 scored, the second-most receptions and fourth-most yards. That’s a whole lot of production and Tyler Eifert is still very cheap. He actually cleared 10 DK in both of Glennon’s starts earlier in the year and is a better target than Kmet at the same price point. Eifert may wind up being my punt of choice if spending all the way down.
D/ST – I’m very concerned about their ability to stop the run, but this is still Trubisky on the other side. He can melt down at any points and this is about as low as I would go this week at defense. That’s about all I can muster for a unit that has 17 sacks and 15 turnovers.
Cash – Eifert
GPP – Robinson, Cole, Chark
Panthers at Washington, O/U of 42.5 (Washington -0.5)
Panthers – Pace is 28th
QB – One of the first aspects I look at in a quarterback when going against Washington is how they fare under pressure. Teddy Bridgewater sits 24th in completion rate under pressure at 37.2% so that is a big issue. We have to credit the Panthers offensive line for only giving up pressure 19.2% of the time but any unit will have their hands full with the Washington front seven. There’s some small upside in rushing as Bridgewater is 10th in yards and actually has 17 RZ attempts on the year. It’s not a big part of his game but it could come in handy in this spot. Still, Washington is second in DVOA against the pass and allows the third-least passing yards on the season. With a 20:13 TD:INT ratio allowed, it’s probably better to go elsewhere on this slate.
RB – I can firmly say I will not have any Mike Davis on this slate. He’s been very hit or miss after bursting onto the scene when Christian McCaffrey first got hurt. He always gets a fair amount of touches, but eight of his games have been under 16 DK points without CMC. That’s just not going to cut it at his price point and he’s got such a low floor, you can’t even use him in cash. Washington is worse in DVOA against the run, but 13th isn’t anything terrible. I can’t make a strong case for him with Dobbins cheaper and potentially the back on the other side of this game.
WR – Based on the matchup involved, I think Curtis Samuel might be my favorite option here. He boasts an 18.6% target share and possibly most importantly, he has the lowest aDOT of the trio at 6.5. An added bonus is he leads in RZ targets on the year with a 24.5% share and he has 31 rushing attempts. He’ll see the majority of Jimmy Moreland who has only allowed a 1.20 pPT but a 63.2% catch rate. The ball likely has to come out quick and Samuel could be the primary beneficiary.
Robby Anderson could get the easiest matchup on the outside as he should face Ronald Darby a decent amount. Darby is top 20 in pPT but also allows a 13.8 YPR so when he gets had, it’s for chunk yardage. Anderson still has the raw target lead by 22 and has a 25.8% target share. He shouldn’t be forgotten in this game. The hardest one to get behind is D.J. Moore. Not only did the price come up, but he’s the main deep threat in the offense with an aDOT over 12.0 and the air yards share lead at 39.7%. He gets Kendall Fuller who has allowed a 1.80 pPT. This is mostly a Samuel or Anderson spot to me.
TE – Ian Thomas has seen eight targets the past two games to bring his target share all the way up to….6.1%. That’s a pass for me with only two total RZ targets.
D/ST – I can get on board here if Dwayne Haskins is starting again. Carolina is still bottom eight in pressure rate on the season with only 24 sacks, but they got home five times against Aaron Rodgers. That’s a decidedly different matchup and the price isn’t awful. I do wish it was under $2,700 though.
Cash – Samuel, Anderson
GPP – Moore, D/ST
Washington – Pace is 11th
QB – It’s trending to Haskins again, but he would be a hard pass for me. He only has a 0.29 pDB which is 35th in the league. In six games, he has five touchdown passes and seven turnovers. Carolina is 26th in DVOA against the pass but I don’t trust Haskins at all in this spot. Coach Ron Rivera does not want him starting and it’s clear his time in Washington is likely running out.
RB – I’m getting excited that Antonio Gibson might get back into action here. He was in full breakout mode in the previous three weeks to injury, with six total touchdowns and 305 scrimmage yards. The Panthers are 22nd in DVOA against the run and have allowed over 2,000 scrimmage yards. Additionally, the 13 touchdowns allowed is exploitable as well. If he can’t go, J.D. McKissic walks into the same spot and he played 86% of the snaps last week with 22 touches. Whoever is the lead back in this game is very interesting.
WR – It’s Terry McLaurin or bust as always in the receiving corps. He’s leading the league in air yards share at 41.7% among anyone that has played 10 games. The target share is also over 25% and even with Haskins at quarterback, he’s going to get fed the ball. We’d have to assume the Panthers will try to get Rasul Douglas on him as much as possible and Douglas has regressed as the season has gone. He’s up to a 106.8 passer rating allowed and a 69.4% catch rate. McLaurin has blowup ability every week, even if it hasn’t been shown lately. No other receiver is above a 9.3% target share and I won’t go there on a full slate.
*Update* McLaurin is now doubtful for this game and that’s a huge hit for the passing game. a player like Cam Sims should leap forward, but man I’m not comfortable with that at all. Maybe if Alex Smith gets back we can use him as a punt but that’s as far as I would go.
TE – Logan Thomas has been coming on lately with 35 targets over the past month. He’s caught 32 of them and scored twice while producing 261 yards. The price has certainly come up but with an 18.5% target share, it’s a fair price. No player has more RZ targets than Thomas and he leads in touchdowns as well. I wonder just how popular he’s going to be with Andrews a few hundred more. The Panthers are tied for the seventh-most DK points given up to the position, so it’s a pretty good spot for Thomas. The passing game flows through McLaurin, Thomas and the backs and that’s the most important thing. With McLaurin out, Thomas would be my primary target in the pass game.
D/ST – They remain one of my favorite units as they are tied for fourth in sacks on the season. They have also forced 18 turnovers and even against Bridgewater, that’s a nice aspect to have. They are still plenty cheap and can be used in any format.
Cash – D/ST, Running Back, Thomas
GPP – Cam Sims
Broncos at Chargers, O/U of 49 (Chargers -3.5)
Broncos – Pace is 10th
QB – It’s probably easier to predict who’s going to win the 2025 Super Bowl than figuring out how Drew Lock is going to play this week. Since Week 8, he’s had scores of 20, 33, 10, 12, 12, 26 and 11. If you catch him when he’s right, he’s going to obliterate his price tag. Lock is 27th in pDB, 27th in points per game and 26th in yards. Sure, he’s missed some time but this is still not great by the stats. You can’t even bank on a negative game script because that’s what happened last week. The Bills trucked the Broncos but Lock didn’t do anything. I can’t see myself going this low as the Chargers are 17th in DVOA against the pass.
RB – I don’t know how much more Melvin Gordon can outplay Phillip Lindsay without getting more touches. Let’s break this down over the past three weeks –
Gordon – 39 attempts, 260 yards, 6.6 YPC, eight receptions, 54 yards
Lindsay – 36 attempts, 88 yards, 2.4 YPC, five receptions, 14 yards
We’re not playing Lindsay but my biggest gripe is it hurts the ceiling for Gordon because Lindsay bites into the potential. The Chargers are 26th in DVOA against the run and the price is fair for MGIII but we need Lindsay out before I’m ready to look his way.
*Update* Lindsay is out, wheels up for Melvin Gordon.
WR – Lock completed all of five passes to receivers last time out and that’s about as low as the floor can go. Jerry Jeudy has the highest target share at 20.2% and he has a 30.4% air yards share to lead the team as well. He should face off against Casey Hayward and that’s a tough spot for the rookie as Hayward has the second-best completion rate allowed at 48.1%. I can’t bring myself to be interested in Tim Patrick or K.J. Hamler. They’re going to have a game here and there, but predicting A. Lock’s good game and B. getting the right hookup is wildly difficult.
TE – I’m not that into receivers because the best stacking option is Noah Fant. He has the lowest aDOT on the team and is only 13 targets behind Jeudy for the target lead. Considering Fant has missed a good bit of time this year, that speaks to how he’s valued in this offense. The Chargers have allowed 10 scores to the position which is tied for third-most. I would consider him slightly better of a target than Logan Thomas, but it’s not by much.
D/ST – I don’t really want to go against the Chargers offense right now and the Broncos only have produced 12 turnovers all season long. The 37 sacks is decent, but they could definitely give up 30 points here and have just a small chance at five DK or more.
Cash – Fant, Gordon
GPP – D/ST, Lock, Jeudy
Chargers – Pace is 8th
QB – I’m betting that Justin Herbert doesn’t draw much attention at his price point, but that could be a mistake. The rookie was held back by his coaching staff last time out. He was carving up the Raiders defense and LA went super conservative in the second half. Even with that, Herbert scored another 31 DK points. Herbert has only been under 19 DK points twice, an amazing feat of consistency for a rookie. He was shooting lasers last game and has all the metrics in his favor too. He’s eighth in points per game, ninth in touchdowns, eighth in yards and fifth in attempts on the season. Denver is ninth in DVOA but that doesn’t scare me. Just look at what the Buffalo offense did to this defense.
RB – It was a bad look for Austin Ekeler the last time we saw him. He got 17 touches and and played his normal 62% of the snaps. Still, he looked like he was playing hurt and the production seemed to follow with just 79 scrimmage yards. He also got poached by Kalen Ballage for a touchdown but that hasn’t been a big issue since he got back. Ekeler has seven RZ attempts to three for Ballage. Denver has given up nearly 1,900 scrimmage yards and if people are still sour about the last game, that would be to our advantage. He’s still the lead back with unique receiving upside since he’s had a 21.2% target share since coming back from injury.
WR – The Chargers receiving corps is a little bit of a question mark right now. Keenan Allen is game-time again and I don’t need to tell anyone how that ended last week. It wasn’t good. I’m hopeful he doesn’t play in all honesty so we know what we have to deal with. If he sits, Mike Williams becomes a lock in a lot of lineups. Allen being out would open up 26.5% of the air yards share and a 26.7% target share. He also owns the RZ and EZ target lead so Williams stepping into that style of role would be a massive step forward. We need to see who’s in or out before figuring out the matchup there.
The duo of Jaylen Guyton and Tyron Johnson would enter the picture as well. Guyton played more snaps as he usually does, upwards of 90% last week. I can’t see that changing if Allen is out. They saw six and five targets respectively, so I’d take Guyton with more snaps at a cheaper price. Just like Williams, let’s see what happens with Allen on Friday before diving too far into the matchups.
*Update* Allen is still listed as a game time decision. That is terrifying after last week and I’m very unlikely to pay the price for Allen this week. The smart play is to take shots with Johnson or Guyton but this being a late game is really not helpful.
TE – Hunter Henry is on the Covid list, but it must just be a contact issue because he’s not officially ruled out yet. Donald Parham would start in his stead and if he filled the role as Henry does, that could be a 17% target share with 10 RZ targets. At minimum price, I think we have to be at least a little interested. The Broncos are above average to the position with only four touchdowns allowed. The entire receiving corps needs some clarity before we can figure out where to go and who we need to play.
*Update* It doesn’t look like Henry will be active for this game. Parham can be used as a punt but GPP only.
D/ST – With the Denver offense playing poorly a lot of the time, you could argue the Chargers are in play. However, they only have 24 sacks and 16 turnovers. This numbers are not great and the price is not exactly cheap. I would likely just play Washington and take the more talented unit.
Cash – Herbert, Ekeler
GPP – Johnson, Parham, Guyton, D/ST
Rams at Seahawks, O/U of 47.5 (Seahawks -1)
Rams – Pace is 16th
QB – The Rams dropped a game to the Jets last week (insert Nelson Muntz HAHA GIF here) and Jared Goff was on of the reasons that happened. He didn’t play utterly horrible but 209 passing yards against the Jets at home? Yikes. It’s a prime example of why playing Goff is a spin on the roulette wheel every week. He’s just 23rd in pDB, 19th in touchdowns, 20th in points per game and 11th in yards despite seventh in attempts. Seattle has shown improvements in defense over the past few weeks, having crawled up to 24th in DVOA against the pass and only allowing 167 passing yards per game in the past three. I’m not super high on Goff, but he’s always worth a share in MME.
RB – Much of the attention this week is going to be on the backfield and the cheap pieces of Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. It’s a bummer that Cam Akers is out after seizing control of this backfield lately. Henderson has the lead in attempts at 126-91 and RZ attempts at 30-16, so he’s my preferred option this week. It’s Sean McVay, so we could get the short end of the stick but Henderson has gotten more work and down more with it over the course of the season. I have to fall back on that. Seattle is 12th against the run in DVOA and has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to backs (on the third-fewest carries faced) but Henderson is way too cheap to overlook in cash.
WR – I always fall to who’s cheaper between Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp and this week it’s Kupp. Neither player did much the first meeting, which is a slight surprise. These guys are virtually identical by metrics. Kupp has a lead in targets by two, RZ targets by one, it’s a dead heat in EZ targets and they are within 11 PPR points of each other. Kupp should have the slightly easier individual spot. Ugo Amadi mans the slot for Seattle and I prefer that spot to Shaquill Griffin on Woods. Griffin has been targeted 78 times and has given up a 1.70 pPT. These aren’t primary targets for me at this point at their prices.
TE – I’m mostly going to ignore the fact that Tyler Higbee had a big game last week. New York is among the worst teams defending the tight end position and Higbee is still just 29th in route percentage at 54.8%. That’s not going to get it done very often and the touchdown is great when you get it, but a waste of a roster spot when you don’t. Higbee is climbing in price on top of everything else, which makes me less interested.
D/ST – The Rams are right there with Washington for my favorite defense on the slate. They are a big mismatch for what Seattle struggles in, which is protecting the quarterback. They’ve allowed the third-most sacks and the eighth-highest pressure rate. There’s a reason LA scored 13 DK in the first meeting.
Cash – Henderson, D/ST
GPP – Kupp, Woods, Goff
Seahawks – Pace is 23rd
QB – I talked about this last week but we’re seeing a pretty easy pattern for Russell Wilson – if a defense can pressure, his ceiling crashes. His poor games have come against teams that are in the top 12 in pressure rate. LA is outside of that range, but they ALWAYS play Russ and he Seahawks tough. After getting embarrassed last week, they’re going to come to play here. Wilson is an excellent play by a lot of metrics, but I won’t go there this week. The Rams are fourth in DVOA against the pass to top it off. There’s too many options around him to have anything above MME exposure.
RB – I’m comfortable with the workload that Chris Carson got last week since he touched the ball 17 times and played 70% of the snaps. That’s his high since he came back from a foot injury and even though it didn’t amount to much for fantasy, I wanted to see that come back before I though about playing him. The Rams are still good against the run, ranking seventh in DVOA. They have also only surrendered 1,099 rushing yards to backs, sixth-best in football. The game should be close and Carson has a 12.1% target share on the year. He’s not a terrible play but would be reserved for GPP only in my eyes.
WR – For the first time all year, I’m not sure I want a Seahawks receiver. D.K. Metcalf gets Jalen Ramsey for the second time, and Ramsey has been one of the only corners to slow down Metcalf this season. You know full well Metcalf circled this game on his calendar after that first go-around. I’m here with popcorn, but I’m not going to be here with my lineup. $7,800 is too much to gamble on in my eyes. Ramsey is fourth in pPT at 1.30 and 14th in passer rating at 78.9. That’s over 76 targets and he’s also sixth in YPR at 9.8.
That would make you think we liked Tyler Lockett, but he stunk up the joint the first Rams game as well. Lockett has played 14 games and has missed 3x at his current salary a whopping 11 times. I don’t think I can sing up for that level of “consistency” and that’s not a compliment. Lockett has a 23.7% target share and a 56% slot rate. He should matchup with Troy Hill, who is 10th in pPT at 1.40 over 95 targets. No thank you.
TE – If you play anyone, play Jacob Hollister since Will Dissly haas games like last week when he doesn’t get a target. That’s not an advocation to play Hollister, who only has a 6.5% target share on the year.
D/ST – I could get there. This unit is way better off when Jamal Adams is playing his safety/linebacker hybrid and Carlos Dunlap is rushing the passer. They’ve hit at least five DK since Week 10 and nine DK in three weeks straight. The pricing hasn’t quite caught up with their talent and upwards trend yet.
Cash – D/ST
GPP – Carson, Metcalf, Russ
Eagles at Cowboys, O/U of 49.5 (Eagles -2.5)
Eagles – Pace is 4th
QB – To quote Ron Burgundy in Anchorman, “That escalated quickly” in regards to the salary of Jalen Hurts. He went from $4,800 to $7,000 in a blink of an eye, but I can’t say I blame DK for getting aggressive. Hurts has scored 25-ish DK points in two weeks from rushing production alone. That’s not counting his 500+ yards passing with four touchdowns. Hurts isn’t completing a high rate yet at just 41-74, but baby steps. He’s more than making up for it. He’s averaging 0.52 pDB early on and the Dallas defense is 20th in DVOA against the pass. I’m not ready to anoint Hurts as Lamar Jackson or anything, but he’s doing a good imitation so far. Hurts is a little high for cash, but a great GPP play in my eyes.
RB – I really want some exposure to Miles Sanders on this slate but his price is jacked up too. I’m not sure how he gets an increase when he scores 10 DK the previous week. The positives to take are he has a combined 36 touches since Hurts has been the starter, and that’s the workload we need for this salary. Sanders has also played over 80% of the snaps in both games, so maybe his price isn’t as bad as the first glance would indicate. Dallas has faced the most carries from backs, but have also given up the second-most rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. If there’s a week for Sanders to pay off at $7,000, it should be this one.
WR – It’s always dicey to take a two week sample as gospel, but that’s all we have with Hurts and these receivers. The two biggest winner so far are Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward. Reagor has 12 targets while Ward has 10. Ward also has the only two RZ and EZ targets of the pair, which he cashed in for two scores last week. Neither player has done a ton with their targets as Ward has 35 receiving yards and Reagor has 95. Reagor is playing mostly outside, which leaves him on Rashard Robinson for the most part. The Cowboys corner has been targeted just 19 times in four games but has allowed a 73.7% catch rate and a 2.10 pPT. Ward is in the slot, which is a little easier to get targets and faces Jourdan Lewis. He’s been targeted 63 times and has allowed a 1.60 pPT. Hurts is still very much in the development stages as a quarterback, so be careful.
TE – Philly has been super heavy on two tight end sets, with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert playing 75% or more last week. They had seven and eight targets each, which really makes them better plays than the receivers. I almost hate to say it, but Ertz might make the most sense. His bets days seem pretty clearly behind him, but seven targets and 75% of the snaps at $3,100 is useful. The Eagles have used two tight ends like very few teams, so I’m good with either option.
D/ST – Another unit that would normally check in as viable, but is scary. They have some injury concerns but if the band is healthy, you can get me on board. They are top five in pressure rate on the season and are tied for the fourth-most sacks. They only blitz 22.5% which means their front can get home and create havoc.
Cash – Ertz, Geodert, D/ST (if injuries cooperate)
GPP – Hurts, Sanders, Reagor, Ward
Cowboys – Pace is 1st
QB – One of the biggest issues that spooks me about Andy Dalton is the 40.7% completion rate under pressure this year. That stands to happen a good bit in this game and we still haven’t seen much ceiling from Dalton. He’s only hit 20 DK once and the Eagles should have more pieces from the defense back in action than they did last week. Philly is just 23rd in DVOA against the pass, but Dalton is also just 30th in pDB at 0.36. I suppose you could go there for cash but the GPP upside has not been a thing for him.
RB – Is it weird to say that I want to see more Tony Pollard and I kind of hope Ezekiel Elliott sit again? Pollard is shining when he gets any kind of work and turned 18 touches last week into 31 DK points. The Eagles are 10th in DVOA against the run so Pollard is fully priced at $6,500 and would be GPP-only. He’s still playing for a longer-term job in the league whereas Zeke has everything he could ask for contract-wise. Let’s see who’s going to start.
*Update* Zeke is saying he’s going to play, but I would be shocked if he gets the workload needed to pay off the salary. As long as he’s active, the same can be said for Pollard.
WR – The trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb have been very close in targets since Week 11 when Dalton came back. Gallup actually leads with 35 targets to 32 for Cooper and 31 for Lamb, but Cooper and Lamb both have more receptions. They also have more yards, while Cooper has more touchdowns. What’s interesting is Cooper got totally shut down the first time around. Some will undoubtedly chalk that up to Darius Slay, but it had more to do with the quarterback at that point. Slay has allowed 779 yards and a 71.7% completion rate on 92 targets, so you miss me with the shutdown corner claim.
Lamb will be in the slot when he’s on the field, but that’s only about 67% of the time anymore. When he’s playing, he’ll get Nickell Robey-Coleman mostly. He’s been solid with a 1.50 pPT and I think it just makes more sense to take the snaps with Cooper and go that route. That matchup isn’t set in stone since Avonte Maddox is out but Gallup could have a weak link to pick on. Lamb is the most awkward price so I have them ranked as Cooper>Gallup>Lamb.
TE – Dalton seems to look at Dalton Schultz less and less as he’s down to a 12.3% target share. He’s a fairly distant fourth in targets since Week 11 so even though it’s a great spot, it’s still questionable. Philly has allowed eight scores to the tight end and almost 800 yards receiving. Schultz is fine, but I wish I felt better about him.
D/ST – Hurts got sacked six times last week, so the Philly offensive line is still a mess. Dallas only has 26 on the season, but they could be punted for that reason alone. Even if they give up 30 points, 4-5 sacks a a turnover would mean they don’t kill you.
Cash – Cooper
GPP – Gallup, Schultz, running back, D/ST, Lamb
Core Four
Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon, Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt
I changed the Core 4 a good bit because full disclosure, I had the Baker and Jarvis Landry stack in cash. That’s not going to happen now with the receiver room being out of action. Instead, I’m pivoting a good bit. Kelce stays, but Hunt and MG3 are new. Hunt is going to rack up at least 15 touches, and I tend to think at least six receptions. Gio is just too cheap even if they trail and if you still want to play Lev Bell, I do get it. As I pointed out in the analysis, Bell is not priced differently than CEH. He wouldn’t have been in my Core 4 on his own, so Bell just misses.
Primary Game Stacks
ATL/KC – Kelce, Mahomes, Hill, Gage, Ridley, Hurst, Ryan, Bell
Note – This is the only game that is over 50 for the O/U and is the highest by four points.
Secondary Game Stacks
PHI/DAL – Hurts, Sanders, Ertz, Goedert, Cooper, Gallup, Dalton, Lamb
DEN/LAC – Herbert, Ekeler, Fant, MG3, Johnson, Guyton, Parham
CLE – Baker, Landry, Higgins, Chubb
LAR/SEA – Henderson, Kupp, Metcalf, Woods, Russ, Goff, Lockett
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
