NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 11

NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 11

At least as of Thursday, this slate is mostly straightforward. There’s only a couple major injuries we’re tracking and only a couple that we knew about. Cash games have been good to us lately and we’ll look to keep the streak alive. There’s another 11 game slate on tap for this Sunday so let’s get to business for NFL Game By Game Breakdown Week 11!

Falcons at Saints, O/U of 52 (Saints -4)

Falcons – 8th in Pace

QB – Atlanta exits the bye week to take on New Orleans and Matt Ryan might not be the best option in this game. He’s been a volume based player this year since he ranks 20th in pDB at 0.45 and is also 15th in touchdown passes. Ryan sits third in total passing yards and first in air yards but that’s coming from over 41 attempts per game. Of his nine games, four have been under 19 DK points which would really hurt at his salary. New Orleans is smack in the middle of the pack for passing yards allowed per game at 15th. Meanwhile, the DVOA is seventh against the pass. Perhaps the one facet that could save Ryan is the Saints are tied for the third-most touchdown passes allowed at 20. He doesn’t stand out to me, but Ryan is always capable of going off for 25+ DK any given week.

RB – Since New Orleans is 0.2 yards off the lead in rush yards per game, Todd Gurley might be a pretty tough sell here. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed fewer DK points per game to the position and New Orleans is tied for the league lead with just three rushing touchdowns allowed. In nine games, they’ve only let up 892 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns. Although Gurley sits fourth in attempts and is tied for first in RZ attempts, I’m having a tough time here. The matchup is just so bad against him. He’s going to likely need to score twice to pay off a 3x return that we’re looking for.

WR – The expectation would be that Calvin Ridley would be back in the lineup but you can likely make the case that he and Julio Jones are too cheap. New Orleans is about average as far as DK points given up per game but this is not the average 1-2 combination. Ridley has a 22.2% target share and a huge 36.2% of the air yards while Julio sits at 20.8% of the targets and 26.2% of the air yards. Ridley leads in RZ targets at a 12-8 ratio and EZ work favors Ridley too at 10-7. Having said that, these two are dead even with 43 receptions each and Julio is only 19 yards behind for the receiving lead.

Julio draws mostly Marshon Lattimore and that’s nothing to fear. He’s been terrible with a 2.30 pPT, 125.0 passer rating allowed and a 14.2 YPR. Ridley would actually get the tougher matchup on paper against Janoris Jenkins. He’s only allowed a 1.70 pPT and a 92.1 passer rating, though you can see neither matchup is intimidating at all. I prefer Julio since he’s healthy but I wouldn’t argue using both. If New Orleans continues to shut down the run, the offense is going to be in the hands of the passing game.

TE – Provided Ridley is back, that will lessen my interest in Hayden Hurst. He saw eight targets last week but with Ridley back that could tick down a bit. Hurst has been on the same roller coaster a lot of tight ends have been this year. Over the past seven weeks, four games have bene over double-digit DK points but three have been under 9.5. Hurst has carved out a 15.8% target share but he’s the fourth option in the red zone and that does drop the appeal some. Tight end is a wasteland on this slate, with not a single option over $4,900. I’m not super convinced I want to pay for Hurst as the TE5 but the salary isn’t wholly unfair. New Orleans have struggled against the position at times this year and average the fifth-most DK points per game.

D/ST – It might seem odd, but Atlanta could be this week’s Rams defense. They’re only $2,300 and have been playing better under Coach Raheem Morris. Not only that, but they’ve managed two games at 6 DK points or more the past four. With a bye week to prepare and a walking turnover at quarterback on the New Orleans side, they could make plenty of sense as a punt this week.

Cash – Julio, Ridley

GPP – Ryan, Hurst, D/ST

Saints – Pace is 26th

QB – When the slate was first released, I figured Jameis Winston was likely to be a lock for me in cash at under $5,000. Now, I’m hedging on that a bit. Firstly, Coach Sean Payton is now indulging the fantasy that Taysom Hill could start. Both players are supposed to get work with the first team this week. This simply boggles my mind that we’re entertaining a 30-year old player who has 18 career pass attempts in the NFL. The reports are tha Hill couldn’t be the backup on game day because he has too many other responsibilities to prepare for. I’m pretty sure my eyes just rolled out of their sockets.

Anyways, Jameis “should” start and I’m interested. The Saints are 7-2 and need to keep stacking wins in the NFC. Atlanta still sits 28th in DVOA against the pass and someone like Drew Lock is capable of putting up a big game. My fear is that Taysom vultures all of the RZ work from Winston and leaves us cursing on Sunday. Let’s face it, if Sean Payton is willing to take Brees off the field, he’ll take Winston off without batting an eye. I may well find a safer route in cash games.

*Update* Taysom is reportedly getting the start now and I’m going to preach what everyone else is saying – HE IS A LOCK ON FANDUEL AT THE TIGHT END POSITION. Don’t think about it. Just do it. FD turned their slate into a super flex slate, and took out the worst position on the slate to boot. DO. NOT. FADE. HIM. IN. CASH. Even in GPP, I’m having a tough argument to fade him. Just be different elsewhere. If you send me a cash lineup on FD that doesn’t have Taysom, I’m going to yell at you 🙂

RB – Regardless of how the QB situation shakes out, Alvin Kamara looks awfully tempting on this slate. He’s the most expensive player but he should be, coming off a 30+ point outburst. Atalanta is actually quite good against the run, ranking in the top eight for DVOA. They also sit sixth in rush yards allowed per game but with Kamara, that’s not exactly a huge concern. He has a massive 26.8% target share and 11 RZ looks, most on the team. Atlanta has allowed 53 receptions already and four scores through the air compared with three rushing. Kamara has a combined 36 RZ chances through nine games and has my interest as a Core Four candidate. This doesn’t strike me as a Latavius Murray game and his price is egregious. Maybe the Saints run it more total times, but the RZ work could very easily get poached by Hill.

WR – Oh Michael Thomas I just can’t quit you. He was a massive dud this past week as my cash lineup can attest but the price is so low. He was targeted seven times, which is actually his season high so far. Thomas also played 78% of the snaps and he should have a quarterback that is not afraid to take chances. That could mean good things for his 8.4 aDOT that he has on the year. I don’t expect the Saints offense to change drastically but the deep ball issues for Brees have been well-documented this year. Winston will not have that same issue and hopefully the week of prep allows him to take shots downfield. Thomas has a glorious individual matchup this week with rookie A.J. Terrell. He’s allowed a 2.30 pP and a 127.0 passer rating and even though Thomas hasn’t shown it this year, he’s still a very good receiver.

I will tend to stay away from the secondary options. Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith were both targeted only once last game. Even Deonte Harris saw four looks so it strikes me as odd that Sanders and Smith were mostly frozen out. Sanders at least has a RZ role with the second-most targets inside the 20 but that seems somewhat iffy to bank on. With Winston and Hill mixing at quarterback, this is going to be a stick to the studs week.

TE – Jared Cook wasn’t really spared either on Sunday as he wen for the goose egg on two targets. The Saints passing game was really poor in the second half and that should be noted, as should the difference in matchups. Atlanta isn’t as good as San Francisco, even with the 49ers having injuries everywhere. Cook is not a heavily targeted player in the offense with only a 12.4% share but he does lead in EZ targets and is third in RZ looks. The Falcons lead the league in touchdowns allowed to the position so I actually prefer Cook to Hurst in this game and think Cook could be an interesting stack option in the passing game.

D/ST – New Orleans is coming off a sparkling performance but the price went up and Atlanta is a better offense with better weapons. Matt Ryan has only been sacked 19 times and the Falcons only have eight total turnovers. I think we can find better options this week.

Cash – Kamara, Thomas but overall I am a touch worried about the touchdown equity of this whole offense. Hill could be the Saints version of Tim Tebow. He can run and be very fantasy relevant himself, but he is a total question mark as a passer.

GPP – Winston, Cook, Sanders

Lions at Panthers, O/U is not up

Lions – Pace is 7th

QB – As of now, it looks like Matthew Stafford should be on the field Sunday despite a thumb injury. That’s never something I like to deal with in a quarterback, and has to be noted. Stafford is coming off one of his best fantasy days of the season at 23 DK points. That was surprising considering the Washington pass defense has been excellent so far and he was missing Kenny Golladay. Stafford is 17th in pDB at 0.47 and sits 11th in both passing yards and touchdowns. The Lions are only 15th in pass plays per game so that’s not terrible for Stafford and the price remains super reasonable. Carolina is 24th in DVOA against the pass and 22nd in passing yards per game, so this is an exploitable matchup on paper. The Panthers have allowed only 16 passing touchdowns, which is only about mid-pack. Let’s see how the thumb develops during the week.

RB – I think D’Andre Swift is going to be a Core Four candidate for the first time all season. He finally took over the backfield this past week with 21 touches to five for Adrian Peterson and one for Kerryon Johnson. Even more encouraging was Swift played 73% of the snaps and both of the other backs were under 20%. The rookie generated 147 scrimmage yards and scored en route to 25.9 DK points. His salary shot up by $1,300 but the matchup this week doesn’t get much easier. Carolina is down to 25th in DVOA against the run and 20th in rushing yards allowed per game. Opposing backs have rolled up 1,533 scrimmage yards and scored 12 total touchdowns. Everything lines up for Swift and I have a hard time not loving him this week.

*Update* Swift is out for this game and that means Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson are both well in play at the minimum.

WR – Kenny Golladay practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, which is a positive step if nothing else. He’s extremely cheap for the slate, under $6,000 and that doesn’t happen often. Even in limited work this year, Golladay owns 30.5% of the air yards share and 19.5% of the target share. Both those marks lead the team and count me in if he can go. Rasul Douglas should be on the other side and he’s been targeted 63 times, giving up over a 96.0 passer rating and a 65.1% catch rate.

The rest of the receivers hinge on the health of Golladay and Danny Amendola. If those two both play, Marvin Jones is on the fringe of in play. He finally had a big game without Golladay but it’s been the first time out of the four games missed. If Amendola is out, perhaps Marvin Hall steps into a bigger role but that would be tough to project. The Detroit side as a whole needs more clarity come Friday.

*Update* Golladay and Amendola are out. That opens up chances for Hall and maybe even Quintez Cephus but my goal is to focus on Jones and Hockenson in the passing game.

TE – After a dud last week, T.J. Hockenson is much more reasonably priced this week and I’m really interested. I do have to wonder if the toe that he was fighting last week played a factor, so the injury reports will tell us a good story this week. Hockenson has a 17% target share and leads the team in RZ and EZ targets. In fact, he’s tied for third in the RZ and EZ among all tight ends so his scoring potential at the position is among the the highest. The Panthers allow over 14 DK points per game to tight ends and the fifth-most receptions, leaving Hockenson as an excellent target.

D/ST – For a team that averages under three DK points and only has eight turnovers forced with 13 sacks, the Lions are pretty expensive. The pressure rate under 20% doesn’t exactly leave us with confidence that things will change either.

Cash – Jones, Hockenson, AP, Johnson

GPP – Stafford, Hall

Panthers – Pace is 29th

QB – Would we be bold enough to trot out P.J. Walker if Teddy Bridgewater couldn’t suit up? I suppose it’s possible, just like Jake Luton for the Jaguars a couple weeks ago. Walker was an XFL stud for however you value that. Detroit is only 23rd in DVOA against the pass and just let up 370 yards to Alex Smith through the air. Carolina certainly has a better cast than Washington does right now and if Walker can just distribute the ball….he could be a bargain. The Lions average almost 260 passing yards given up per game so Walker could at least be in the GPP conversation. I don’t mind Bridgwater if he starts since he’s seventh in passing yards. The touchdowns still lag and I do prefer other options in Bridgewater’s range.

*Update* It appears that Walker is going to be the starter and I’m warming up to him as the week goes.

RB – Everyone is likely going to hate that I say this but Mike Davis couldn’t be in much of a better spot. He burned a huge portion of the field in both formats last week in a terrible matchup (outside of pass catching). This week is the polar opposite since Detroit is 27th in DVOA against the run and they have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns. That’s not even counting the 483 receiving yards they’ve allowed and the five touchdowns to that side. No other team has allowed more touchdowns to backs. Last week, J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson combined for nearly 40 DK points. Davis has 25+ DK upside in this spot and I won’t let recency bias kill this for me. His past four games that ended poorly as the starter came against the first, second, fifth and seventh DVOA rush defenses. It doesn’t get much more brutal than that.

WR – We talked last week about the floor for Curtis Samuel and that’s exactly what we got, even though he had eight targets and three rushing attempts. Surprisingly Robby Anderson also had a pretty big flop of a game and D.J. Moore took center stage with 19.1 DK points. It’s been a long season for Moore, who has been wildly up and down. Generally the most consistent player was Anderson and Sunday was the worst game of the year. The good news is this is a good bounce back spot and both Moore and Anderson are over 21% in the target share department. The air yards are near identical but Anderson has 17 more targets on the season, making him the number one option in the offense. Even the EZ targets are dead even so the matchup could be the deciding factor.

Anderson should face Desmond Trufant and that’s advantage Anderson. Trufant has only played in four games but has been tagged for a 126.6 passer rating and a 2.10 pPT. Moore is likely to see Jeff Okudah but the rookie is under a 60% snap rate. The Lions have deployed Justin Coleman in the slot where Samuel is 49.3% of the time and he’s only allowed a 1.20 pPT. I have them ranked just like their salary does.

TE – Colin Thompson has been active for five games and has one reception for a seven yard touchdown. He can be ignored, as can Ian Thomas who has 18 targets in the season.

D/ST – Depending on the injuries, I prefer Carolina’s defense but neither in this game standout. Carolina is barely over one sack per game and their pressure rate is just over 19%. With eight fumbles forced in 10 games, that’s just not sustainable.

Cash – Anderson, Moore, Davis

GPP – Samuel, Walker

Eagles at Browns, O/U of 47.5 (Browns -3)

Eagles – Pace is 5th

QB – I said last week that Carson Wentz could be a good cash game option but the build led me to spend up. That was quite fortunate for me as Wentz was awful for fantasy, scoring 8.7 DK points and not hitting 57% for his completion rate. This is a make or break week kind of deal for Wentz. The matchup against Cleveland is incredible and barring weather (please not again), Wentz is too cheap. The Browns are 20th in DVOA against the pass and 21st in passing yards per game. That’s with their past two games being in terrible conditions for passing the football. Wentz is 26th in pDB at 0.39 and leads the league in intercept-table passes with 25. While pressured, his completion rate is 32.7% but the Eagles are fourth in pass plays per game. Cleveland is bottom 10 in DK points per game against the quarterback so I will have shares of Wentz this week.

RB – It was incredibly tilting to see Boston Scott and Corey Clement both score while Miles Sanders did not this past week but it was encouraging for Sanders nonetheless. He had 17 touches and accounted for five targets, while Scott and Clement combined for five targets. Sanders was also over 70% of the snaps so the price is still pretty fair here. Cleveland is only 18th against the run in DVOA and allows 104 rushing yards per game. They are top 12 in points per game against the position so Sanders is not a smash play on paper. I prefer to attack with the passing game but Sanders is a nice GPP play with some bigger name backs up top this week.

WR – Even with the return of Alshon Jeffery, it really appears the only two receivers we should look at are Travis Fulgham and Jalen Reagor. Jeffery played under 20% of the snaps and did not record a reception. Fulgham and Reagor were both over 85% of the snaps and Reagor actually paced the receivers with seven targets to five for Fulgham. Reagor also led in air yards last week with 96 and it’s just a matter of time before he breaks off a big play. Browns corner Denzel Ward isn’t a tru shadow corner but he will see some of Reagor. That doesn’t really scare me too much with the salary involved and you’re playing Reagor for the deep ball more than anything. Fulgham should have a bit of an easier time with Kevin Johnson who’s allowed a 104.5 passer rating. I think both are absolutely viable but am still #TeamReagor.

TE – Philly could be back to full strength in the tight end room this week with Zach Ertz potentially returning. The could mean less work for Dallas Goedert but both tight ends have functioned together. They are both incredibly cheap as well so there’s potential for both. Goedert is sitting at a 13.2% target share to 19.8% for Ertz and Cleveland is bottom 12 in DK points allowed per game with five scores.

D/ST – I loved them last week but they flopped pretty badly. Count me right back in since the price dropped $800 and the Eagles can still get home to the quarterback. They’ve logged 31 sacks so far and that’s tied for third in the league. Since the Eagles are solid against the run, they could force Cleveland to rely more on the pass and that’s not what their offense is built for.

Cash – Reagor, Wentz, D/ST

GPP – Sanders, Ertz, Goedert

Browns – Pace is 25th

QB – How can anyone want to play Baker Mayfield at this point? Weather over the past two games duly noted but a full third of his touchdowns came in one game this year. That’s not great when we’re in Week 11. Mayfield has played nine games and has one over 18 DK. ONE. Five of his nine games have been under 15 DK and you need at least that for just 3x return. Philly is 21st in DVOA against the pass but they’re sixth in yards allowed per game. Mayfield is 31st in pass plays per game and no higher than 15th in touchdowns, yards, air yards or pDB. I think Philly can make life tough in the run game but they should be able to get pressure and Mayfield sits at a 38.5% completion rate under pressure. I just don’t see any need to play him.

RB – Philly is the fourth-best team as far as DK points per game, so the matchup is polar opposite of last week for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. It was interesting to see Hunt get more snaps and touches this past week, although that could have been weather and injury related. I don’t think Cleveland really used kid gloves with Chubb since he still had 19 carries but he didn’t have a reception. He only has three on the season and that’s kind of a scary aspect of his game. Philly has allowed 999 scrimmage yards but only nine touchdowns and zero through the air. I don’t feel the need to play Chubb in a tougher matchup with limited touchdown equity and even worse reception floor. His 3.3% target share is beyond poor. Hunt at least is at 12.1% but I don’t think either regret plays at the respective price.

WR – We still don’t have a real look at how the receiver corps is going to shake out after the loss of Odell Beckham. Over the past two games, Mayfield has only attempted 45 passes and that doesn’t tell us an immense amount. The good news is there is one standout and it’s Jarvis Landry with his 36.4% target share in that time frame. He’s the only receiver to have a RZ or an EZ target in those two weeks and he leads in receptions. Landry squares off against Nickell Robey-Coleman for the most part, and he’s allowed a 69% catch rate and a 94.6 passer rating. Landry could really fly under the radar and that target share catches my eye.

Rashard Higgins does have seven targets and would be about the only other player that we could consider here. The only reason that I would go the route is if you think Philly stops the run and Mayfield has to throw over 30 times in his one. Even then, Higgins should see more Darius Slay than anyone. The Eagles corner only has a 10% slot rate and has allowed just a 1.50 pPT on 62 targets this season.

TE – After seeing that Austin Hooper play almost 90% of the snaps and get targeted just twice, some may not want to go right back to the well. I certainly will since the price didn’t move and he played so much. Philly has gotten blasted by tight ends and this shapes up to be a redemption game for Hooper. The Eagles are in the bottom five in receptions allowed, yards allowed and touchdowns. Their linebackers have issues in coverage and Hooper was running hot before the appendectomy. Hooper has run a route over 75% of his snaps and I’d be shocked to see him go 1/11 again this week.

D/ST – Any defense that has a pulse is in play against Philly, although this play takes a hit with no Myles Garrett. Wentz has thrown 12 interceptions and the Eagles are tied for third in turnovers. The Browns have 22 sacks on the season and 14 turnovers forced, so that’s respectable for $3,000.

Cash – Landry, Hooper

GPP – Hunt, Chubb, D/ST

Patriots at Texans, O/U of 49 (Patriots -2)

Patriots – Pace is 20th

QB – Cam Newton continues to be viable almost wholly on his running production because the Patriots passing game is garbage. Sorry, but that’s the truth. Newton is 13th in pDB because of the running stats because he has a 3:7 TD:INT ratio. Cam is 36th in passing touchdowns on the season and he’s played in eight games. Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen and Mitchell Trubisky have more passing touchdowns than Cam on the season. Newton is fourth in rushing yards and he’s scored nine times, but that is the only facet that saves him. Houston is 32nd in DVOA against the run so it’s as good as it gets from that angle. I still don’t love playing a quarterback that has such a low floor passing. Even 2019 Lamar Jackson threw touchdown passes. I understand the GPP or cash play but I don’t personally love it.

RB – I really hope Sony Michel is not quite ready to come back, because the duo of Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead really stand out in this matchup. Harris has logged 62 attempts over the past four games and has 352 yards. The bad part is he has all of one target in that span and Cam is stealing the touchdown chances. Harris has five RZ chances to 10 for Newton, which could be a slight issue at this price point. Still, that level of workload against the worst run defense in the NFL has to be appealing.

Burkhead is a little scarier as he only played 20 snaps last week and that seems like it could lead to a floor game in a hurry. Two receiving touchdowns might not be the best chance to repeat but Burkhead has been involved in the pass game more lately. He has 13 targets over the past four weeks and also has 28 carries, much more than James White. If Burkhead maintains the “Swiss Army knife” role he brings value but just remember – this is New England we’re talking about here.

WR – I’m only particularly looking at two options in the passing game this week in Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd. Meyers continued his to streak with another 5/59 on seven targets (and threw a 24-yard touchdown) while Byrd accounted for nine targets and went 5/65. In the games without Julian Edelman Meyers has an astronomical 41.9% of the targets and 63.5% of the air yards. He should not be under $5,000. Better yet, the alignments could mean Texans corner Bradley Roby lines up elsewhere. Even if he moves to Meyers, Roby has had issues this season. He’s allowed four touchdowns, a 63.8% catch rate and a 1.80 pPT. For $4,900 I’m more than willing to roll the dice with Meyers.

Byrd has a 17.6% share and is much better suited for GPP than anything else. The potential matchup with Vernon Hargreaves leaves room to go off as well. The former Buccaneer has allowed a 2.00 pPT and a massive 112.7 passer rating with a 14.0 YPR. That’s the kind of corner Byrd can burn especially at a 4.3 40-yard dash for Byrd.

TE – There was a game where Ryan Izzo was the only active tight end on the roster and he’s still not hit over 5.8 DK points all year.

D/ST – The price is fine but I don’t love them on the road against a much better passing offense than what they saw Sunday night. My issue is they have only 13 sacks all season so can they take advantage of Houston allowing the fifth-most sacks? If they can’t there’s a good chance they flop at this salary.

Cash – Meyers, Harris

GPP – Cam, Byrd, Burkhead, D/ST

Texans – Pace is 11th

QB – I was really excited to play Deshaun Watson last week until the Cleveland weather patterns destroyed that. Watson managed to generate 14 DK points which isn’t the worst case scenario but I’m right back to playing him on this slate. He’s among the top five most talented signal callers available to us in my eyes and $6,500 is very cheap for his potential. New England is all the way down to 30th in DVOA against the pass and this is not the defense we feared. Watson is still inside the top 10 in pDB at 0.53 and he’s eighth in point per game at 22. He also sits inside the top 10 in passing yards and touchdowns, making his price seem very appealing against a not-so-scary matchup.

RB – I don’t fully understand how Duke Johnson gets a price bump after laying an egg of a score last week, but there we are. The good news is Duke barely left the field last week, missing just three plays the entire game. He’s not going to see a ton of work in the passing game because that’s just not what the Texans offense does. David Johnson is at a 9.5% target share and Duke is at 7.8% so he’ll need to get most of his production on the ground. New England is 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and 31st in DVOA against the pass, so I do like Duke again this week. Hopefully in a situation where the passing game is a legitimate threat, he bounces back.

WR – Brandin Cooks continues to be severely underpriced compared to Will Fuller. Under the new coaching regime, Cooks has a 27.9% target share lead to 22.6% for Fuller. Now, Fuller does have the air yards share lead at 33.8% but Cooks has 57 more yards, 10 more receptions and one fewer touchdown. The RZ work is equal at four looks each and Cooks has a 3-2 lead in EZ targets. Cooks has outscored him for fantasy by about 10 points in that span as well. I believe both are in play and you can double up with Watson, but continue to prefer Cooks if playing one at the price.

Cooks also gets J.C. Jackson who hasn’t been great this year. He’s gotten hit with a 2.00 pPT, 15.3 YPR and four touchdowns allowed. Stephon Gilmore was limited Wednesday and he would likely go after Fuller. Motivation is a serious question mark although the Pats have a shot at the playoffs still. Gilmore also has been worse this year with a 1.90 pPT and a 102.4 passer rating, astronomical numbers for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Fuller is a walking explosive play so it only usually takes one.

TE – Of course it was Pharaoh Brown with a touchdown catch last week, depriving Jordan Akins or Darren Fells. Akins didn’t play a ton of snaps and Fells was right at 60%. I don’t love any of them this week and it looks like it’s just a mess. Even with all options being under $3,000 I think we can find better options for punts. Akins still has a higher target share, more air yards and double the RZ share so he’s my “favorite” of the group.

D/ST – I’m not really looking toward them because of the Patriots are having success running the ball, Coach Bill Belichick is going to run it 50+ times if he chooses. I don’t see the Texans stopping the run suddenly and the chances for turnovers and sacks are likely diminished here.

Cash – Watson, Duke, Cooks

GPP – Fuller, Akins

Titans at Ravens, O/U of 49.5 (Ravens -5)

Titans – Pace is 4th

QB – I don’t typically play quarterbacks against the Ravens and I don’t see this week being an exception. He started off the season on fire but the past month has seen a downturn with no games over 18.3 DK. The past wo weeks have seen his completion rate below 56% both games and just a total of 24 DK points. Maybe it’s not a surprise that those two games came against teams inside the top six in DVOA against the pass. Baltimore is not far off that mark, sitting 10th. Tannehill has been a little lucky as well. He’s 27th in pass plays per game and 19th in yards, but seventh in touchdown passes and fifth in pDB at 0.56. With the Ravens only allowing 11 touchdown passes on the year and the seventh-fewest pass yards per game, I’m looking elsewhere.

RB – The matchup is even tougher for Derrick Henry and the price is likely a little too high for me. Baltimore is third in DVOA against the run and Henry continues to be completely uninvolved in the pass game, with just 11 receptions on the year. The Ravens have only allowed six total touchdowns so far to backs and are tied for the fewest rushing with three. Henry is a different animal this time of year but the price really concerns me here. I’m not really that interested as things stand, especially with other elite backs available to us.

WR – Last game was really disappointing from A.J. Brown and it seemed as though an early drop really played havoc with him. I don’t think I want to pay all the way up to him at $7,200 with some of the other options/matchups directly around him but he could be a potential slate-breaker with nobody on him. Before the poor game Thursday, he had scored for five straight weeks and eclipsed 80 yards three times. I would suspect that Marlon Humphrey is going to be mostly on Brown, since Humphrey is at about 49% slot snaps. He can kick out to the boundary and give Brown some issues.

The funny part about Brown is Corey Davis has been similar to him without the touchdowns. The targets are only four apart and the air yards are only 14 yards apart. Davis has fewer RZ targets but they both have four EZ targets and is only 20 PPR points behind Brown. In reality, the pricing difference shouldn’t really be $2,400. Davis should see a heavy does of Marcus Peters but that’s not a death sentence. Peters has allowed a 1.70 pP and almost a 62% completion rate.

TE – Jonnu Smith has been about the textbook definition of touchdown or bust this year. He does have eight total spikes but when he doesn’t the results haven’t been great. The log is dotted with 2.3, 1.9 and 4.9 performances. He’s under a 16% target share which is fine and the 30.6% RZ share does help his cause a lot. I just don’t love paying what is top dollar on the slate for a flawed tight end. Smith only runs a route on 59.6% of his snaps, 27th in the league. On top of that, Baltimore has only allowed four scores and are under 45 receptions allowed to the position.

D/ST – The Titans are cheap but they likely should be. They can’t get to the quarterback with only 11 sacks and that’s tied for the second-fewest in the league. They have generated 14 turnovers but I’d rather look elsewhere.

Cash – Davis

GPP – Henry, Brown, Smith, Tannehill

Ravens – Pace is 30th

QB – How the mighty have fallen. Lamar Jackson is under two total touchdowns per game and his production has been much more of a wild ride than 2019. Perhaps I’m being a little harsh but when you average under 200 passing yards per game and are under 60 rush yards per game, you need touchdowns to carry you and that doesn’t always happen with Lamar this year. Having said all of that…..I love him this week.

Look, when old man Phil Rivers hangs over 300 yards and a touchdown on you, the defense just isn’t good. Tennessee is down at 25th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The Titans have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in football (and still no Jadeveon Clowney) and when Jackson has a clean pocket, his completion rate is 74.6%. That’s just 17th in the league, but this represent a great spot for passing upside. Add in the production for the legs and I think we get a 2019 style game for only $7,300.

RB – A couple weeks ago when J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards ran all over the Steelers and they were hot waiver claims, I tried to preach caution. Well, the return of Mark Ingram confirmed my worst fears for at least one game. It was the same evil three-headed monster at running back it has been all year. Dobbins got the most snaps at 44% but that is the high-water mark with all three active. He touched the ball six total times and when all three have been active, they’ve split touches to an immense degree. They just eat into everyone’s production and despite the great spot (Titans rank 19th in DVOA against the run and 18th in rush yards allowed per game) I don’t think any of the three stand out.

WR – If I think Lamar might have a standout game, it stands to reason the receivers have to be in a good spot. Well, mostly because Jackson could just go nuts on the ground but I do like receivers here. Marquise Brown has been totally frustrating this season and has six games under 10 DK points. This is a fantastic spot to get off the hook and go off at the second-lowest price we’ve gotten all year. Even with all his flaws, Brown is one of three receivers in football to have 40% or higher of his team’s air yards.The Titans have allowed the second-most DK points to the position on the season and the third-most yards with the second-most receptions.

Malcolm Butler for the Titans can’t run with him and Adoree’ Jackson will be in his first game action of the year, if he plays. (*Udpate* He will not play). This has to be the spot. I don’t even think using Willie Snead is the worst idea this week. He’s third in targets, air yards, RZ targets and EZ targets in the passing game. The floor is low but the ceiling is high with two games over 18 DK in the past three weeks. The presence of Desmond King isn’t that scary although King has played slightly better with Tennessee.

TE – You can argue over who’s been more disappointing this year, Brown or Mark Andrews and the correct answer is likely both. Andrews only has three double-digit DK games himself and is under 400 yards receiving. He is still fifth in RZ targets among tight ends and tied for fourth in EZ looks. Tennessee has been lust about average against the tight end so far but has allowed five scores. Andrews is absolutely in play in Jackson stacks, and getting the trio of Lamar/Brown/Andrews will likely not get much cheaper than this.

D/ST – The price is a little high here. Baltimore has generated 25 sacks which is great but the Tennessee offense has only given up 12 sacks and only has four turnovers. That leads the league so I don’t see a strong reason to pay top dollar for Baltimore here.

Cash – Jackson, Andrews by default with the state of the position

GPP – Brown, Snead

Steelers at Jaguars, O/U of 46 (Steelers 10.5)

Steelers – Pace is 24th

QB – I’m going to let some Pittsburgh bias in here but shouldn’t Ben Roethlisberger be getting some MVP buzz? He’s fifth in touchdowns and while I give you he’s only 15th in yards, the 22:4 TD:INT ratio is excellent. This was a .500 team last year who only really added Chase Claypool and now they sit at 9-0. The deep ball is still and issue for Big Ben with just a 25.6% completion rate on 43 attempts, but if he starts hitting those it’s going to be scary. Pittsburgh is also down to 24th in rushing yards per game and these contests are starting to be in Ben’s hands more. Over the past month, he’s had three games over 40 attempts and the fourth still had 32. The past two weeks have seen him score at least 28 DK points with seven total touchdowns and 300-yard games each time out. This is likely a good time to mention Jacksonville has the 31st ranked DVOA against the pass. Big Ben is a good shot to continue his hot streak this week.

RB – Conversely, it’s really tough to want to play James Conner. He’s had two straight cupcakes matchups against teams in the bottom 12 in DVOA against the run and has a total of 10.8 DK points. He’s still 12th in rushing yards on the season but he just has looked indecisive the past couple weeks. Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA against the run and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game but I have some reservations here. It’s interesting to note that Pittsburgh is 31st in run success rate on the offensive line. Conner’s price really hasn’t even moved after two flops and it’s much easier to play Swift (if active) for $200 cheaper. The Steelers aren’t shy about throwing the ball and if the run game continues to be below the standard, Conner likely flops again.

WR – Over these past two weeks the trio of Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster and my man crush Diontae Johnson have all scored at least 14 DK every week and of six possible games, there are four games over 20 DK. This is sort of a long way to say that if you believe that Ben throws 40+ times again, the mega stack is in play. Now, that is a very dangerous way to live and it could backfire but last week those four players combined for right about 102 points. The salary for this week combined is $25,100 so that would be 4x return but again – quite risky.

If you decide on just one or two, I continue to have them ranked inversely of their salary. Johnson is likely in the Core Four, Claypool is close behind and JuJu is last simply because he costs he most. JuJu and Diontae are over 20% of the target share this year with Claypool at 17% so there’s not a huge advantage if Ben throws 40+ times. I fear exactly zero Jacksonville corners and am not concerned with any individual matchup. JuJu gets Tre Herndon in the slot, Claypool gets fellow rookie C.J. Henderson (and has three inches on him) and Diontae gets Sidney Jones.

*Update* Henderson is out, making this matchup even better

TE – Eric Ebron is always on the fringe of in play and that’s true this week as well. The salary is fine and he’s been targeted at least five times for a month straight now. Last week was the first time in that month that he didn’t put up at least 11 DK points but when all four touchdowns go to the receivers, it’s not hard to see why. Ebron is 11th in route percentage at 78.1% and has nearly a 15% target share. Jacksonville has allowed he eighth-most DK points per game and seven spikes already, so they are vulnerable. If one of the receivers flopped, it’s likely because Ebron scores.

D/ST – This is the same story as the Dallas game for me. Pittsburgh checks all the boxes we want in a defense and is playing a sixth-round rookie. However, paying $4,600 for a defense is simply not something I will do. You need over 13 DK points to return 3x value and in the Dallas game, they scored seven. That would be brutal for the salary involved.

Cash – Ben, Johnson, Claypool, JuJu

GPP – Ebron, Conner

Jaguars – Pace is 6th

QB – It’s pretty difficult to find something to hang on to for Jake Luton. The shine came off this past game with just 9.7 DK points and he barely completed 50% of his passes. The environment should be a lot better than it was in Green Bay but the defense isn’t going to be any easier. Pittsburgh is second in DVOA against the pass and has only allowed 15 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions already. This is pretty much a hands off situation for me and I won’t think twice about placing him in a lineup. I’d rather play P.J. Walker before Luton.

RB – James Robinson is likely to have at least 15 touches but I’m not a big fan of him in this spot. Pittsburgh has mostly been stout against the run, with a couple of exceptions. They are still sixth in DVOA and ninth in yards per game and it makes all the sense in the world to load the box and force Luton to beat them. The Steelers have allowed the least DK points per game to backs this year. That includes just six touchdowns and 960 scrimmage yards total. Robinson is not that expensive for the volume he’s gotten this year (fifth most carries, 10th most receptions) but it’s still hard to play him over Swift given the matchups involved.

WR – I kind of like Keelan Cole this week. While D.J. Chark might get some attention, he’s likely to square off against Joe Haden. Cole has been in the slot about 64% of the time and that is the weakest portion of the Steelers defense. It’s still hard to project who’s the man with Luton in the passing game. Chark has 17 targets, Chris Conley has 16 and Cole has nine. That’s also with Laviska Shenault basically missing both games. That facet is likely to be the same since Shenault is still not at practice as of Thursday. Conley should square up with Steven Nelson who has been a bit of a weaker link. He’s given up a 2.20 pPT and a 123.2 passer rating on 61 targets. Slot corner Mike Hilton is in line to return for Pittsburgh, facing Cole. He’s allowing over a 70% completion rate so there are runback options on a Steelers stack.

TE – Tyler Eifert was sort of interesting last week but I don’t think I’ll go back this week. He has nine targets with Luton under center but has yet to record a single RZ or EZ target. There’s options that aren’t that much more expensive with better quarterbacks and higher chances at production.

D/ST – I’ll pass here considering they give up an average of 30 points and have the fewest sacks in the league.

Cash – None

GPP – Cole, Conley, Chark, Robinson

Bengals at Washington, O/U of 46.5 (Washington -1.5)

Bengals – Pace is 15th

QB – It may not be the best matchup on paper, but count me in for some Joe Burrow this week. Even in bad conditions against a fierce pass rush last week, Burrow threw the ball 40 times. He only managed 12.5 DK points so it’s not like I’m saying Burrow in cash but this is remarkably cheap for him. He’s first in pass plays per game so even with the 27th pDB of 0.38, he’s in play every single week. Burrow is in the top 10 in passing yards and air yards, he’s just been unlucky in touchdowns with only 12. That’s not exactly surprising for a rookie but the salary is enticing. Washington is fifth in DVOA and first in yards allowed per game but showed last week they can be cracked. Burrow is a worthy GPP play with a lot of salary to be spent elsewhere this week.

RB – With Joe Mixon yet to practice, we have another week of Gio Bernard on the docket. Washington is 14th in DVOA against the run but there’s no doubt Bernard has some floor here. We saw it last week with under nine DK. The good news is he was still closing in on 70% of the snaps and we also saw what a talented back is capable of against Washington. I don’t think Gio is the same as Swift but he has receiving upside and if he’g going to get 15 touches or potentially more, he’s likely a little too cheap this week. The field may well overlook him with Burrow and the passing game getting the attention.

WR – The price drop for Tyler Boyd really seems like an overreaction. He still leads with a 21.2% target share and 11 RZ targets, not to mention the five EZ targets that are tied for second. Boyd’s price dropped by almost $1,000 which is unwarranted and he gets one of the better matchups. Jimmy Moreland mans the slot for Washington and has surrendered a 1.40 pPT and a 68.6% catch rate.

Tee Higgins is still interesting at his price point as well since he’s under $6,000. He went off last week and has clearly taken over as the 1A in the Bengals passing game. The issue with Higgins could be the tougher matchup. Kendall Fuller has only allowed a 57.8 passer rating, which is the fourth-best in the league. Much like last week, A.J. Green is not remotely on my radar. It seems like they featured him for that two week stretch to try and swing a trade, because he’s done nothing since then. With Boyd being cheaper than Higgins, it presents an easy path to get a piece of the passing game.

TE – Drew Sample is 20th for route percentage at 66.8% and only has a 7.8% target share on the season. Washington has been vulnerable to this position but there’s not much of a reason to think Sample would get the work to take advantage of it.

D/ST – Even against a flawed offense, it’s hard to throw a defense in there that has 11 sacks and nine turnovers. The pressure rate is the second-lowest in the league and I’ll take my shots with Atlanta in this range.

Cash – Boyd, Gio

GPP – Burrow, Higgins

Washington – Pace is 13th

QB – Alex Smith is chewing up all sorts of yards, combining for 715 the past two contests. The issue is he’s only thrown a single touchdown but he’s completing a high percentage of passes and it feels like the time might be coming for a big game. Heck, he flirted with 4x value at this salary last week on yardage alone. The Bengals haven’t gotten pressure on anyone and they’ve been shredded through the air with the 29th ranked DVOA against the pass. Smith has 15 pass attempts off play action already and is at an 85% completion rate. If that held up, that is first in the league and I think he’s a solid play in any format. The Bengals are second in touchdown passes allowed with 21 on the year.

RB – Thank goodness Antonio Gibson got in for two scores because nothing else really stood out for him in this game. Game script has gone against Washington the past two weeks but it’s hard not to notice the disparity between Gibson and J.D. McKissic. Gibson has only played 46% and 38% of the snaps the past two weeks while McKissic has been on the field at least 70% of the time. The touches have fortunately been dead even at 26 but McKissic now has 29 targets over the past two weeks. That leads the NFL in that time period. The next closest player is Davante Adams at 24. He’s one of only seven players over a 30% target share in that period as well. Especially on DK, both players are very valuable at their price with Bengals ranking 21st in DVOA. Gibson might have a lower floor than appears but perhaps this script doesn’t get so far out of hand.

WR – How can you not want to play Terry McLaurin at this point? He leads the entire NFL in air yards share at 42.6% and the target share of 26.4% is excellent. He’s the WR8 in PPR formats so far this season and he’s still under $7,000 which is too cheap. He hasn’t missed a beat with Smith under center, logging 27 and 18 DK points in the past two weeks. The consistency has been great as well because he’s had one game under double-digit DK points and that was against Jalen Ramsey. McLaurin should eat once again this week. A corner like William Jackson and his 14.3 YPR and 90.8 passer rating allowed don’t worry me.

When we talk about punts, we generally want players that don’t leave the field because hopefully they fall into some production. Cam Sims fits that bill, with over 90% of the snaps last week and Dontrelle Inman not looking like he’ll be out again. Sims has seen nine targets the past two weeks but he has a 100-yard game under his belt as well. The potential is there for this price and the matchup looks good too. He should see LeShaun Sims some of the time and he has a 119.2 passer rating allowed. You could do worse at this range of salary.

TE – I’m back to at least using Logan Thomas as a punt as he’s just $3,300 and he’s seen six targets in both games with Smith. He’s garnered a 13% target share which is enough for this range of a play and the bengals have scuffled against tight ends all year. They’ve allowed the third-most yards and tied for third-most touchdowns along with the seventh-most receptions. If the ball doesn’t go to McLaurin or McKissic, there’s a good cache it gets thrown to Thomas.

D/ST – They did not perform last week but with Washington under $3,000 and the Bengals allowing the second-most sacks on the season, I’m going back with them this week. The pressure rate allowed for Cincy has come down to 21.3% but anytime a defense is at this price with 28 sacks and seventh in DVOA, I’m interested.

Cash – McLaurin, McKissic, Smith, Thomas, D/ST

GPP – Gibson, Sims

Dolphins at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Dolphins -3.5)

Dolphins – Pace is 31st

QB – Word to the wise to young gun Tua Tagovailoa – maybe keep it to yourself about the NFL being “not as hard as you thought”.

If you don’t think that’s on the board in the Denver locker room, you’re wrong. I’ll give Tua credit that he hasn’t thrown a pick yet but he also hasn’t topped 248 passing yards or thrown more than two touchdowns in a start. He’s been fine so far but Denver is 12th in DVOA against the pass. With two of his starts under 15 DK, I don’t find myself using Tua this week with Jameis, Wentz and even Smith in this range of salary. I’d like to see more production from the rookie before playing him on the road in Denver this week against a solid-ish pass defense.

RB – If it’s the Salvon Ahmed show once again, I’m going to be tempted to a good extent. He’s under $5,000 and last week he accounted for 22 total touches. That’s insane volume for this price and Denver is down to 17th in DVOA agains the run and 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game. Just against the running backs, Denver has allowed over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Ahmed played 76% of the snaps last week and was the man in this backfield. We’ll keep an eye on Matt Breida but if he’s out, Ahmed looks pretty solid in any format.

*Update* Breida was a full participant on Thursday, making the Ahmed play a lot more unstable.

WR – The duo of DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant were the only two receivers not he field more than 20% and they both played over 75% of the snaps last week. Parker saw seven targets and Grant saw five, with Grant having the better fantasy day with four receptions and a score. Parker is likely going to do with A.J. Bouye most of the time but Bouye’s stats look ugly. He’s only been targeted 21 times but he’s not stopping many of them, allowing 17 receptions for 205 yards and a 123.2 passer rating.

On paper, Bryce Callahan has been the better corner despite being targeted 55 times. He’s only allowed a 1.20 pPT and a 61.5 passer rating. Grant is still worth a look at the price, but if the stats for each corner showed up Sunday Parker has blowup potential.

TE – Last week saw Mike Gesicki play under 50% of the snaps and that’s happened three times now. For whatever reason, Miami doesn’t seem overly impressed with him and even though he had five targets, it’s really scary to play a fight end with the potential of so few snaps. You could actually punt Durham Smythe as a touchdown or bust candidate. In the past three weeks, two of them have been over 60% of the snaps for Smythe but there are no targets to fall back on. He only has five in those three games so this is MME only.

D/ST – If my builds allow it, this may well be the cash defense. Miami is playing extraordinarily well under Coach Brian Flores and has 22 sacks with 14 turnovers. They draw either Drew Lock who has 10 picks in seven games or a backup. Either way, Miami is set up to play well this week and the only reason I wouldn’t play them is if they don’t fit.

Cash – Ahmed, Grant, D/ST

GPP – Tua, Parker

Broncos – Pace is 3rd

QB – The expectation right now is Lock plays but we’ll see about that. Regardless of who plays the position, I can’t say that I’m interested here. Miami is eighth in DVOA against the pass although they are 19th in passing yards allowed per game. What has really helped them is the 13:8 TD:INT ratio so far and that doesn’t bode well for any Denver quarterback. Let’s check back in Friday and see where we’re at here, but I don’t expect much to change as far as who I want to play.

*Update* Lock is questionable and looks in line to suit up for the week

RB – The way to attack the Miami defense is to run the ball as much as you can. They rank 29th in DVOA against the run and 22nd in rush yards allowed per game, so it’s not exactly a secret. Now the question is can Melvin Gordon and/or Phillip Lindsay do anything against it? Over the past two weeks, they have combined for 29 carries for 89 yards. Yes, that’s both backs combined. Denver is only 19th in rushing yards per game and neither back has really distinguished themselves so far. Gordon leads in snaps at least with between 55%-60% over the past three weeks but I actually might take my shot with Lindsay. I believe him to be the more explosive player and the 5.5 YPC for Lindsay to 4.1 for Gordon is noticeable. That’s not a bible stat but it’s a big disparity.

WR – We want the player who spends the most time in the slot and that’s not Tim Patrick or Jerry Jeudy. No, that’s K.J. Hamler and he should draw the majority of Nik Needham. We’ve picked on him all season and Hamler has seen 20 targets the past two weeks. He’s also incredibly cheap. Patrick and Jeudy might have their hands full with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones towards the boundary. I would be less interested in Hamler if Lock sits but we’ll see on that front. Jeudy is likely to see Jones while Patrick gets Howard. I’d not really mess with those two situations myself, especially with quarterback questions. Needham has gotten tagged for a 60% catch rate but he’s shockingly a a 1.20 pPT. I think this is a case where the stats are a little misleading as he’s still the corner to attack

TE – There’s been injuries at play but the last month for Noah Fant doesn’t look all that great. He’s only had one game over 7.5 DK points and it’s not like he’s not getting targeted. Fant has accumulated 26 targets in that time frame and this offense is honestly a touch crowded. Patrick, Jeudy and Hamler all get their looks too and Fant only has four RZ targets and two EZ targets. I don’t love that from a tight end and if I spend up, it’s likely somewhere else this week.

D/ST – This isn’t the worst play. Tua made a few intercept-table throws last week and he’s likely due a turnover or two. Denver doesn’t have a ton of turnovers with just nine but does have 22 sacks. I still favor Atlanta but Denver is on the table.

Cash – None

GPP – Hamler, Lindsay, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant, Gordon

Jets at Chargers, O/U of 46 (Chargers -9.5)

Jets – Pace is 9th

QB – Is anyone going to be bold enough to play Joe Flacco? I tend to doubt it but the week before the bye he did account for 21 DK points against the Patriots and threw three touchdowns. The Chargers are in the middle of the road in DVOA against the pass and even though there’s still not much to write home about for Flacco, he could be a moderately interesting punt in theory. It’s just so hard to trust the Hets in any way, shape or form at this point. They are one of the worst offenses in football so even in a halfway decent matchup, I get concerned. LA only has four interceptions all year against 18 touchdown passes but I don’t think I’ll be bold enough to pull the trigger.

RB – If I knew La’Mical Perine was going to get the work, I’d be interested. However, Frank Gore won’t just go away and he got fed 14 touches to eight for Perine. The snaps were about even but that only gets you so far. Until Perine is the man in this backfield, they are an easy skip. Gore is useless for fantasy with under six DK points scored per game. The reports are Perine will see a “heavy workload” coming out of the bye but I don’t believe that in the least.

WR – I tend to think that Jamison Crowder was not healthy last game and the bye week did him a world of good. Crowder still owns a 28.2% target share on the season and that’s insanely valuable for PPR formats. He’s the WR10 on a points per game basis and I wonder if the field has kind of forgotten about that. I do wish he was slightly cheaper but running about 70% of his snaps in the slot is going to help. With Desmond King in Tennessee, Tevaughn Campbell has taken over the slot duties. He’s only been targeted 14 times but has allowed 10 receptions for a 104.2 passer rating. This spot should favor Crowder.

With Crowder only getting targets twice last game, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman both saw at least seven targets and Perriman went off for over 100 yards and two scores. I would still prefer Perriman as I think he fits better with Flacco and if someone loses targets to Crowder, it’s likely Mims. The rookie is also potentially going to have the tougher matchup with Casey Hayward. He has allowed the lowest catch rate in football at 44.1% thus far. Michael Davis is likely on Perriman a decent amount and has only allowed 10.8 YPR on 57 targets, inside the top 20 for corners.

TE – There is no player worth looking at in this position for the Jets.

D/ST – Typically I don’t mind them as a punt but this is not a good matchup and I’m not interested.

Cash – Crowder

GPP – Perriman, Mims, Perine

Chargers – Pace is 10th

QB – The Jets are dead last in DVOA against the pass and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. Somehow, they’ve only allowed 16 touchdown passes but they’ve still allowed the fourth-most DK points to the position. Justin Herbert has lit everyone up so far and is sixth in fantasy points, fifth in pDB, 14th in yards, eighth in touchdown passes and 10th in pass plays per game. This one is short and sweet. Play Herbert in any format you choose and he should be one of the higher scoring quarterbacks on the slate.

RB – I really don’t appreciate the fact that the Chargers are making me talk about Kalen Ballage. He logged another 23 touches this past week and scored another 15 DK points against the Dolphins. I’m not crazy about the price because he is flat-out not that talented and there’s a lot of options that are cheaper that I like better. New York is actually 10th in DVOA against the run but 19th in rushing yards allowed per game. Simply as a volume play in a good offense, Ballage has to be considered. But his range of salary of about $1,000 either way is pretty loaded.

WR – Did Keenan Allen let you down last week? Well, buckle up because he’s in line to make up for it this week. Allen has still maintained a 28.9% target share since Herbert has taken over and there’s not a soul in the Jets secondary that can stop him. I’m not having a second thought playing Allen in any lineup or format.

There’s no reason to sleep on Mike Williams this week either. We didn’t love him last week as a boundary receiver against the Dolphins but the matchup is quite different.This week it’s Bleesuan Austin and he’s let up a 1.60 pPT and a 12.4 YPR. Williams has one fewer game than Allen with Herbert but is only 83 yards behind in air yards, so we know where the ceiling is. Even Jalen Guyton is in play as a boom or bust option and by bust I mean zero.

TE – Just when I thought I was alright letting go of Hunter Henry, he scores a touchdown last week. It seems important to realize that without that score, he’s under eight DK points for the fourth straight game. The role with Herbert just hasn’t been that great. You would think 51 targets would translate to more than 32 receptions and two touchdowns but it’s not working out like that. Donald Parham and Gabe Nabers have the same amount of touchdown receptions since Herbert took over. He’s in play in Chargers stacks since the Jets have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends.

D/ST – I won’t consider the Chargers at this price. Yes, it’s the Jets but they have 16 sacks and eight turnovers in nine games. No way am I forking over $4,000 for them.

Cash – Herbert, Allen, Williams

GPP – Ballage, Henry, Guyton

Packers at Colts, O/U of 51 (Colts -2.5)

Packers – Pace is 32nd

QB – On paper, the matchups for Green Bay this week aren’t going to be great but this is as healthy as the offense has been just about all year. Perhaps the field doesn’t turn to Aaron Rodgers but it’s not often a quarterback scores 29.4 DK points and sees his salary drop by $900. Indy is fourth in DVOA against the pass and second in yards allowed per game but this is Rodgers with all his weapons intact. He’s second in pDB at 063, sixth in passing yards and second in touchdowns despite being 22nd in passing plays. I’m not sure there’s a huge need to play Rodgers in cash but he’s an elite GPP play that is badly underpriced regardless of matchup.

RB – It was a vastly disappointing day last week for Aaron Jones but he got the work we had hoped for. With 18 total touches, it’s a little tough to complain but the production wasn’t quite there. Gaining 95 scrimmage yards isn’t bad but the lack of a touchdown hurt. He’s still very affordable for his potential to go nuclear every game. Indy matches their prowess against the pass in defending the run game as well. They’re fourth in DVOA and third in rush yards allowed, not to mention under 900 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. Knowing Jones has 20 touch and 30+ DK point upside keeps him in play, but isn’t a primary target for me. Jamaal Williams recorded 11 touches last game but is too expensive for the second fiddle role.

WR – It’s funny to see Davante Adams score 19 DK points and walk away disappointed but that’s the standard he’s set this year. Most receivers would be pumped for an 8/66/1 line and I believe this is where Colts corner Xavier Rhodes could have a rough time. Rhodes has been amazing this year with only a 45.2% catch rate allowed and a 61.9 passer rating allowed. Just like Rodgers, if nobody wants to play him that just makes it even better. Rhodes isn’t going to scare me away from a 34.6% target share and a 38.5% air yards share.

The secondary receivers are somewhat interesting. Allen Lazard is back in action this week and should see some of Kenny Moore who’s only allowed a 1.50 pPT. That’s solid since he’s been targeted 58 times this year but he has also allowed 444 yards. They could be cautious with him since Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been playing well lately. He might also have about the best matchup on paper if he sees Rock Ya-Sin, as he’s allowed a 91.4 passer rating and nearly a 70% catch rate. MVS has two straight weeks of 19+ DK points and if Lazard is worked back in slowly, he could go off at under 5% this week.

TE – I’ll have no interest in Robert Tonyan this week. Not only is he not really involved in the offense with weapons returning, the Colts have been great against the position. They haven’t even allowed a touchdown yet and are the second-best team in DK points allowed. Tonyan is under 11% for his target share and I’d rather just play Thomas for $100 more.

D/ST – The Packers defense is an uninspiring option with only seven turnovers forced, but they do a least have 20 sacks. The Colts offense allows only a 13.4% pressure rate which blunts that aspect. I likely go elsewhere, although Philip Rivers always seems to have a chance to throw a pick or two.

Cash – Adams, Rodgers but neither are needed

GPP – Jones, MVS, Lazard

Colts – Pace is 22nd

QB – Rivers himself is coming off a 300-yard game and I still can’t get on board here. He’s come up to 19th in pass plays per game but he’s still only 25th in pDB at 0.40. Where he’s really lacking so far is touchdowns at just 11, which ranks 23rd. The Packers are 16th in DVOA against the pass and 13th in yards allowed per game. It’s not the best match for Rivers to throw for multiple touchdowns since Green Bay has only allowed 14 on the season. The one reason to play Rivers is if you believe that Green Bay will put some points on the board and force them to chase. Indy is seventh in pace of play when trailing by at least seven points.

RB – If we absolutely knew that Nyheim Hines was going to be the man in this game, I’d be in love with the price. He’s coming off a 28.5 DK point game where he touched the ball 17 times and played nearly 60% of the snaps. Hines generated 115 scrimmage yards and the matchup is excellent. Green Bay is weak against the run as the 22nd ranked DVOA along with the second-most DK points per game to the position. They are over 1,300 scrimmage yards and a total of 15 touchdowns, so someone in this backfield is likely to have a great game. The problem is Coach Frank Reich uses the hot hand approach a good bit. If Hines starts off poorly, Jonathan Taylor or Jordan Wilkins can jump in quick. Taylor seems to be in the doghouse with 17 total touches the past two weeks combined. Wilkins is less of a factor but also has 21 touches in that timeframe. I favor Hines because he’ll at least have some type of receiving floor, but he’s a dangerous pick.

WR – T.Y. Hilton continues to slide into irrelevancy and he’ll like see Jaire Alexander if the Packers corner is active. That takes him out of play pretty quickly for me as he’s under seven DK points per game this year. On the other side, Michael Pittman is really appealing. He’s squaring off against Josh Jackson who has allowed a 1.80 pPT and a 100.3 passer rating. The rookie has been over 80% of the snaps the past two weeks and has 15 targets over those two games. Last Thursday was really the breakout game and the price hasn’t come up yet. He really seems like a bargain with 34.1% of the air yards and 19.7% of the targets the past two weeks. Zach Pascal has seen fewer targets and with the prices involved, Pittman really seems like the play.

TE – The split between Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle (when active) is really killing every individual player for fantasy. Each of them hovers around 35%-50% of the snaps and is likely to only see 2-4 targets, so unless the situation changes I won’t be taking this route.

D/ST – The Colts defense has been incredible this season but I think they’re too expensive to play against the Packers. They’re living on five defensive touchdowns as far as fantasy scoring along with two safeties. The risk doesn’t outweigh the reward and salary.

Cash – Pittman

GPP – Hines, Rivers, Pascal, Taylor

Cowboys at Vikings, O/U of 47.5 (Vikings -7)

Cowboys – Pace is 1st

QB – Andy Dalton is on track to be back in the lineup and I wish I had the confidence to start him. Minnesota has climbed to 11th in DVOA against the pass but they are still 27th in yards allowed and have allowed 19 touchdown passes. He’s only played in one full game and parts of two others but the 0.19 pDB is frightfully bad. The passing plays per game is fantastic at 46.2 and this is a good matchup. He’s just played so poorly the it’s hard to know what you’re going to get. The weapons in the passing game are outstanding but there’s serious offensive line issues. This is a deep GPP play and nothing else.

RB – Maybe this is just me, but Ezekiel Elliott has sure looked like a guy who got paid and is just collecting the checks in a lost season. The issues aren’t all on his shoulders to be sure but he’s under 64 yards per game on the ground. That’s not something I thought we’d see from Zeke this year at all. One of the facets that somewhat saves him is being fourth in receptions and seventh in receiving yards among running backs. The matchup is average on paper with the Vikings ranking 15th in DVOA against the run but they’ve given up over 1,200 scrimmage yards. Giving up only five scores is not likely sustainable so you can argue that Zeke is a worthwhile GPP play.

WR – The trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are all reallllllly cheap and I can’t help but want some exposure here. In the one full game with Dalton, Cooper and Lamb were the primary focus with 10 and 11 targets each. The biggest issue with Lamb is he’s been on the field for fewer snaps since the injury to Dak Prescott. He still gets a great matchup against Jeff Gladney who has allowed a 2.00 pPT and a 109 passer rating. If Lamb got another 11 targets, he could really be a slate breaker. Cooper really isn’t that much different in the respect. Gallup only saw six targets and with his role being a little more downfield, he is the riskiest of the bunch. Seeing Kris Boyd raises the possibility of a good game as he’s allowed a 1.90 pPT and a 72.2% completion rate. My focus would be on Lamb and Cooper here.

TE – For his salary, Dalton Schultz is really not that bad of a pick this week. He’s seen 24 targets in the four games without Dak and has hit 7.5 DK in three of the four weeks. His 16.2% target share is fourth but no receiving option is over 18.9% (Lamb and Cooper) so that’s pretty respectable. It’s not ideal to see him with no RZ or EZ targets in those games but for $3,600 that’s more of a bonus than anything else. Minnesota has been a little better than average as far as DK points but the yardage given up is sixth-most.

D/ST – They’ve been a little better as of late but there’s more talented units to take chances on this week.

Cash – Lamb, Cooper, Schultz

GPP – Dalton, Zeke, Gallup

Vikings – Pace is 23rd

QB – I wanted to at least consider Kirk Cousins until I saw his price was over $6,000. He’s the butt of jokes but Cousins is actually ninth in pDB at 0.53 and 11th in touchdown passes. What can kill his production is the fact he’s 32nd in pass plays for game at 29.1. Efficiency is well and good but you have to have some type of volume to go with it. In this game, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to see the Vikings go up and try to pound the ball. Dallas is 18th in DVOA against the pass so the upside is evident but the downside is as well.

RB – It would be nice to fit Kamara and Dalvin Cook into our lineups together, but I’m unsure if that’s going to be possible in cash games. We’re likely going to have to make a tough choice and as of now, I have Cook by a hair just because of stability at the quarterback position. Cook is coming off a game with 34 touches and if he gets even 25 this week, he should smash the price tag. Dallas is down to 28th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the second-most rush yards to the position. We know the sky high ceiling Cook brings to the table every single week.

WR – Both the Vikings seem underpriced for the ceiling but they both have floors for the east reason we talked about with Cousins. Since Justin Jefferson really took over the second spot in Week 3, he and Adam Thielen are nearly identical. Jefferson has a 3.4% lead in the air yards share while Thielen has one more target. Jefferson has 12 more PPR points and the only reason it’s close is because Thielen is a scoring machine. He has 10 RZ and 11 EZ targets to just one of each for Jefferson. However, Jefferson has five more receptions and 310 more receiving yards. It appears that Chidobe Awuzie will be making his way back into the lineup. In his two games, he gave up a 2.90 pPT and a 115.6 passer rating. Thielen should see Anthony Brown who is only slightly better at a 1.60 pPT and a 70.3% catch rate. It’s hard to not just side with Jefferson and not have to rely on touchdowns.

TE – If Irv Smith is back, he and Kyle Rudolph don’t really interest me. They both sit between 10% and 11% for their target rates and only have seven total RZ looks. When they’re both active, the ceiling is really low and don’t be fooled by the two touchdown game for Irv before he missed last game. He ran under 10 routes that entire game and the floor for that style of attack is zero.

D/ST – I’m fine with this unit in a vacuum but they seem pretty pricey for a unit that isn’t that talented. They did put up 10 DK against a poor offense on Monday night but the Cowboys have far better pieces. Minnesota has only 18 sacks and 11 turnovers forced on the year.

Cash – Cook

GPP – Jefferson, Thielen, Cousins, D/ST

Core Four

Dalvin Cook, Diontae Johnson, Jakobi Meyers, Adrian Peterson

The Cook and Johnson plays need little explanation. With the opening of Lions value, it’s a lot easier to fit Cook even at $9,000. I’m going with Peterson unless we get word that Kerryon will get the bulk of the work. In my eyes, Peterson gets at least 50% of the carries and gets the red zone work. I normally wouldn’t be too hot on a Patriots pass catcher, but the metrics and price are a perfect fit for Meyers. For one last time, lock in Taysom on FD in cash.

Primary Game Stacks

ATL/NO – Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Thomas, Kamara, Sanders, Hurst, Cook, Hill

CIN/WAS – Smith, McLaurin, McKissic, Boyd, Higgins, Gio, Thomas, Burrow, Gibson

TEN/BAL – Lamar, Hollywood, Andrews, Davis, Henry, Brown, Snead

Secondary Game Stacks

PIT/JAX – Ben, Johnson, Claypool, JuJu, Conley, Cole, Chark

DAL/MIN – Cook, Jefferson, Lamb, Cooper, Dalton, Schultz, Cousins

GB/IND – Rodgers, Adams, Hines, Pittman, Jones

NE/HOU – Watson, Cooks, Fuller, Meyers, Duke, Cam

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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