Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Saturday Special
It’s that time of the year again when the NFL is playing on Saturday as well and they’re back with three games this week! We need to know who to play and for what reasons, and that’s what the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Saturday Special is all about! I believe this slate is cash and GPP viable, so let’s dig in and see where we’re heading.
Buccaneers at Lions, O/U of 53.5 (Bucs -9.5)
Buccaneers – Pace is 9th
QB – When we’re looking at quarterbacks that could have a ceiling game on this three game slate, Tom Brady has to be an option. The question is whether he’s a strong option and that’s where things get dicey. The Bucs are heavy favorites and Brady wouldn’t be in line to push the envelope. Just look at the past two weeks. In Week 14, he threw it 23 times in a comfortable win. When he had to get them on the comeback trail against the Falcons, he threw it 45 times and went for 26 DK. There’s really not a lot else to pick at for Brady. He’s 12th in pDB at 0.49, fourth in touchdown passes, first in RZ attempts and fifth in passing yards. The only aspect that is scary is the competitiveness of this game (or lack thereof).
RB – It appears that Ronald Jones will still be out this Saturday and that means we can go right back to the well with Leonard Fournette. Last week with Jones out, Fournette played 66% of the snaps and had 17 touches. If he gets that workload again, he should destroy this price tag. Fournette is more suited to be in a leading game script and the fact he still got 17 touches last week is fantastic. Detroit is down to 28th in DVOA against the run and have given up the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards. Fournette is a stone cold lock at this salary.
WR – The Bucs have a three-headed monster at receiver but Mike Evans is just far too cheap for this matchup. Really, every single one is and I can easily get on board with Evans and Antonio Brown even if not playing Brady. Evans continues to lead in targets and air yards share since AB has walked through the door. Additionally, he’s been the main option in the passing game in the RZ and EZ. Evans is still leading with 10 RZ targets and when Brady leads in RZ attempts, that can be a lot of points in a hurry. Amani Oruwariye is going to see Evans the most, and he’s allowed a 1.90 pPT and a 14.7 YPR over 92 targets.
The Lions have a revolving door at corner right now, so the matchup for AB is a little murky. If Darryl Roberts is active, it’s likely up to him. He’s only played about 51% of the snaps but over 41 targets, he’s allowed a 73.2% completion rate. That’s a huge number. Justin Coleman should face Chris Godwin in the slot. Godwin is ever so slightly third in targets and that’s why I would lean playing Evans and AB at the salaries. If Brown is going to take over some of the target share and Evans has RZ work, Godwin is in no man’s land salary-wise. Coleman has only been targeted 36 times but has allowed a 90.7 passer rating.
TE – At this juncture, Rob Gronkowski needs the touchdown to be worth playing. He’s been targeted at the second-highest rate in the RZ and EZ behind Evans since Week 9, but the outcomes have been volatile to say the least. Gronkowski has three games under eight DK points and two over 13. It’s interesting to note that Detroit has given up only the third-fewest yards to the position but have allowed seven scores. He’s certainly not my favorite option and I’m likely playing him only with Brady. You could make the argument he’ll be chalky given the price on this short of a slate.
D/ST – The high end for this defense has certainly fallen off lately and I’m not real convinced I want to pay up. They do have 43 sacks and that’s always appealing, as are the 21 turnovers which are tied for the fifth-most. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most sacks which is a good match but let’s see how the defenses line up with salary.
Cash – Fournette, Evans, Brown, D/ST
GPP – Brady, Godwin, Gronkowski
Lions – Pace is 7th
QB – Matthew Stafford is a gamer, you have to give him that. He couldn’t have been near 100% last week and he still gave it a go. Now, that didn’t amount to much for fantasy and this matchup is just average by some respects. Tampa has fallen to seventh in DVOA against the pass but at the same time, they’ve gotten tagged multiple times through the air lately. They are down to 25th in passing yards allowed per game and over the past three games, they rank third-worst at 320 yards per contest. The defense for the Lions should have issues and Stafford is likely to face a negative game script. The veteran for the Lions is only 22nd in pDB but ninth in yards and attempts with 23 touchdown passes. He offers intrigue, but only in MME formats.
RB – It’s not a good matchup on paper, but D’Andre Swift is clearly the man in the backfield. He went back up to 19 touches and over 60% of the snaps again, a welcome sign after injury. In those two weeks, Swift has seven RZ carries and two RZ targets. That’s the kind of usage that can pay off even in a tougher matchup and if an “expensive” back comes in chalky, Swift is an intriguing pivot. Considering Tampa gives up the fewest rush yards in the league and is third in DVOA against the run, I think Swift is a really strong pivot from other options in GPP. Tampa has allowed the most receptions to backs and that’s something Swift can really exploit.
WR – The matchup for Marvin Jones almost doesn’t matter as I’m not sure how you argue with the target share at this price and it’s hard to avoid it. He’s under $5,000 and since Week 10 he’s been getting fed the ball. Jones has a target share approaching 28% and the air yards share is almost 45%. For this amount, I almost don’t care how the matchup looks and Tampa has struggled in that secondary a lot lately. Carlton Davis was shutdown for a portion of the year but has gone backwards. He’s up to a 1.80 pPT, 12.6 YPR and a 68.5% completion rate. Jones is very likely to be a staple of my lineups.
Another player that is just too cheap (and I can’t believe I’m saying this) is Mohamed Sanu. He’s played at least 59% of the snaps in his last three games and he’s the bare-minimum on DK. Do I expect anything massive out of him? Not exactly but when a player is only $3,000 and he has the same amount of targets as Danny Amendola. The veteran slot receiver does have an incredible matchup. Sean Murphy-Bunting has been a disaster in the slot with 900 yards allowed on 66 receptions for a 127.5 passer rating and a 2.20 pPT. I prefer Amendola for this reason. What’s interesting is I’m not sure we need to punt with these receivers with no big spends at RB. However, they are a perfect fit if you need a cheap guy.
TE – We talked about T.J. Hockenson as a consistent force for a tight end and he went out and completely and utterly laid an egg. He was only targeted four times, which is tied for his season low mark. Tampa is in the bottom 10 in DK points given up per game and it’s not like Hockenson isn’t a major part of this offense. Even in the time frame of Jones getting peppered, Hockenson is still managing a 19.5% target share and is tied for the RZ target lead. He might be under $5,000 but he’s shown so little ceiling this year that I don’t think I end up playing him that much. I’ll likely get my Detroit exposure from Jones, Swift and possibly punt Amendola.
D/ST – The Lions have only managed 19 sacks all season and 12 turnovers. The 12 takeaways are tied for the second-least in the league and those kinds of numbers won’t cut it, even at a punt price.
Cash – Jones, Swift, Hockenson
GPP – Stafford, Amendola, Sanu
49ers at Cardinals, O/U of 49.5 (Cardinals -4.5)
49ers – Pace is 21st
QB – Nick Mullens left the game early last week but not before he turned the ball over another three times contrasted with his two touchdown throws. He’s the likeliest of the quarterbacks to either get pulled from the game or pull a 25 spot while mounting a furious comeback (that he helped create in the first place).
Mullens is out which leaves the 49ers down to C.J. Beathard. It’s a short slate and all options need explored, but I can’t see a reason to go here. Think of how poorly Mullens has played this season and then ask yourself why he hasn’t been pulled yet. You know why? Beathard is even worse and can’t wrestle the starter’s job away. Over 438 career attempts, he’s under a 58% completion rate and a 14:13 TD:INT ratio. We don’t need this cheap of a quarterback and even if we do, we can turn to Vegas.
RB – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before – we need clarity on the San Francisco running backs. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are both questionable. That could potentially leave Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon as the only players left standing here and that’s about the only way I want a piece of this backfield.
*Update* OK, so we know that Mostert is out. That really opens it up to use Wilson, who was not listed on the injury report Wednesday. Wilson played 46% of the snaps last game and that was with Mostert active. He is pretty cheap but the matchup doesn’t do him any favors. Arizona is 14th in DVOA against the run and 10th best in DK points allowed per game. I have a strong feeling I’m going just two running backs on this slate but Wilson is on the board for GPP.
WR – It’s a little funny to compare Marvin Jones to Brandon Aiyuk from just a metrics standpoint. Let’s turn it back to Week 7, which is when Aiyuk started to catch fire. He extended his streak of 19 DK points or more to six this past week and most of it has come without Deebo Samuel. Since Deebo is out, Aiyuk will continue to be the man in the receiving corps. He’s owned a 30.7% target share and a 39.4% air yards share. He’s nearly $2,000 more than Jones. That’s not to talk smack on Aiyuk, who is an excellent play. It’s to highlight how mis-priced Jones is and we might start our receiving corps with these two players.
I’m not terribly worried about the quarterback switch in playing Aiyuk. I can envision multiple screens and short passes to make it easy on Beathard. Arizona corner Patrick Peterson is statistically washed with a 118.0 passer rating allowed and a 2.10 pPT.
Don’t get too fooled by the game log for Kendrick Bourne. He’s sill cheap but he caught a Hail Mary at the end of the game to goose his score in a pretty big way, otherwise it was mostly a quiet day. What was a little surprising was he only played 50% of the snaps last week and Richie James was right about 65% and he’s a good bit cheaper. I think you only play one and James would be the favorite. Not only did he have the snaps advantage, but he saw seven targets on top of it. Having reps with Beathard in practice doesn’t hurt either. These are players that could suffer with a third-string quarterback though in real game action. I don’t think it’s wise to get too carried away.
TE – I would not expect George Kittle to be back for this game even though Coach Kyle Shanahan said it’s possible and he would play if healthy. If Kittle is active, I’m plying him at $5,000. It’s really not even a question. That would be the biggest factor to hurt Aiyuk and his target share. Kittle is typically near the $7,000 range. He has a 23.9% target share when active this year.
If not, it’s going to be Ross Dwelley and Jordan Reed manning the position again. The former plays more snaps but the latter is the pass catcher, with a 28-17 target lead since Week 7. He has been touchdown or bust with just nine receptions over the past four games but he’s also under $3,000. If we’re loading up with other skill positions, Reed makes sense to punt. The matchup stinks as the Cards have catapulted to the sixth-fewest DK points allowed per game. Just get us into the end zone and we’d be golden.
D/ST – I don’t want to play against a healthy Cardinals offense although the price is fine. The 49ers are an average defense and just got housed in Dallas. There’s no doubt that the Cards have more talent and they’ve only given up 22 sacks on the season.
Cash – Kittle if active, Aiyuk and Reed as a punt if he’s not
GPP – Aiyuk if Kittle is in, Wilson, James, Bourne
Cardinals – Pace is 2nd
QB – Is Kyler Murray the chalk on the slate? Most likely. Is there anything wrong with eating the chalk at the position? None whatsoever. I don’t think any other option (including Brady) possesses the style of ceiling that Kyler has shown time and again this season. Half of Kyler’s games have resulted in over 28 DK this year and an eighth was 27.8. Murray has run the ball over 20 times these past two weeks, which is a fantastic sign after his shoulder issue hindered him for nearly a month. In the first game this year, Murray got San Fran for almost 28 DK and they had a far healthier defense at the time. Kyler has the lead in points per game at his position with his 11 rushing touchdowns and he’s still in the top 12 in yards and passing touchdowns. Eat the chalk.
RB – The floor for Kenyan Drake is really terrifying and I’m not sure I can get there with him this week. Even during the stretch that Murray wasn’t running as much, Drake had two games of 16 DK or under. The only solid game he had was a double touchdown day against the Patriots. Over the course of the full season, Drake has only played about 57% of the snaps and is not that involved the passing game. His 5.8% target share is really discouraging. When we get a back that doesn’t really catch passes and has to score to pay off, he’s really not that interesting. If we’re playing anyone, Chase Edmonds makes more sense for cheaper. He’s going to get some carries and has some passing game upside with a 13.4% target share. Additionally, Edmonds has the second-most RZ targets on the entire team.
WR – How can we not want to stack Kyler with DeAndre Hopkins? I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the past two weeks have seen Nuk go nuts when Kyler’s arm stopped bugging him. Hopkins has a 32.9% air yards share and a 29.2% target share in this offense, which is just silly. He’s only 11 targets off the league lead and the price is more than fair. Just like Kyler, the SF matchup doesn’t worry me at all. He went for 32 DK in their first meeting and this stack is my starting point, regardless of contest or format. Richard Sherman should see plenty of Hopkins and Sherman has allowed a 64.7% completion rate on 34 targets.
We can look at Christian Kirk or Larry Fitzgerald as a lower priced option, but neither are huge standouts. The target share is about identical at 15.7% but Fitzgerald gets the better matchup in the slot. Kirk has to deal with Jason Verrett, who is top 20 in both pPT and passer rating allowed on 65 targets this year. Fitzgerald gets Dontae Johnson on the slot and that’s advantage Fitzgerald stats-wise. Johnson has only played part-time but over 28 targets, he’s allowed a 64.3% catch rate. I believe there are better plays than the secondary Arizona receivers.
TE – I could see playing Dan Arnold on this slate, although I’m still just not buying it that much. He’s such a low target player in this scheme at 7.8% and he’s mostly been getting “lucky” for lack of a better word. The Niners are the best team in the league in points per game to the position, and I’d just rather play Reed. Even when they get to the red zone, Murray can run it, Edmonds gets RZ targets and Hopkins is sill there.
D/ST – This unit makes the most sense at price I believe. I know they struggled with Jalen Hurts, but Beathard does not equal Hurts. Mullens has been pressured 28.9% of the time and I don’t think Beathard is going to fare much better from that perspective. Considering the Cards have 43 sacks, this is the best mix of price and upside to my eyes.
Cash – Kyler, Hopkins, D/ST
GPP – Fitzgerald, Drake, Kirk, Arnold
Dolphins at Raiders, O/U of 48 (Dolphins -3)
Dolphins – Pace is 27th
QB – I completely stayed away from Tua Tagovailoa last week against the Patriots but he still managed a very respectable fantasy game. He’s not likely to replicate two rushing touchdowns very often but the Raiders defense doesn’t represent much of a challenge. They rank 21st in DVOA against the pass after all. There’s some aspects to pick at with his game so far but one aspect that looks great is the completion rate under pressure. He’s 12th so far in the league at 44.4% and when he’s kept clean, we’re looking at 77.2%. The pDB is 0.42 and that’s not great, but it’s not terrible either. Given the salaries, I’m going to prefer the quarterback on the other side of this game but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tua was the lowest-rostered quarterback on the slate. That’s interesting in MME formats.
RB – The great news for the Miami backfield is they subscribe to the workhorse back theory. Salvon Ahmed was the best back active last week and he had 24 touches and a touchdown. However, Myles Gaskin is back for this week and is a great play on his own. Vegas can be had on the ground in a big way. Only six teams have given up more than the 1,500 rushing yards to backs the Raiders have surrendered. On top of that, they’ve also allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and rank 31st in DVOA against the run. I suppose there is slight concern about a timeshare after an extended absence for Gaskin but that’s not how the Dolphins have handled the backfield so far. Even at 15 touches, Gaskin is not expensive enough.
WR – This unit is really beat up for the Dolphins right now. DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant both missed last week, leaving Lynn Bowden as their lead receiver. While I like what Bowden has been bringing that past few weeks, he’s not capable of being the alpha in the passing game yet and the results showed that. If Parker is back, that helps Bowden a lot because he’s going to draw the defense towards him and let Bowden have easier coverages.
Bowden also has some extra motivation here as the Raiders drafted him in the third round and traded him to Miami almost immediately. That’s a little rarer in the NFL. The rookie is in the slot almost 60% of the time and will see mostly Nevin Lawson. The slot corner for the Raiders has been targeted 58 times and has allowed a 1.90 pPT with a 115.9 passer rating.
Since Week 12 when Bowden has been integrated into the offense, Parker has seen fewer targets. In that time frame, his share is only about 19.5% and that’s a little scary when we break it down further. He shouldn’t be penalized for just two targets in an injury game but he also saw 14 targets against the Jets. That’s an outlier to be sure and it wasn’t with Tua, who was injured. We know he’s not healthy and I prefer AB for $200 less. Parker still has some ability to post a big score as he’s facing Damon Arnette, who has only been targeted 24 times through limited snaps. Arnette has also let up a 70.8% passer rating. I prefer to play Gaskin from this offense, but Parker and Bowden both are interesting.
TE – Just like Parker, Mike Gesicki sat last week and we’re hoping he returns this week after a monster game against the Chiefs. The duo of Bowden and Gesicki are much cheaper to get exposure to the Dolphins passing game and Gesicki has a 17.9% target share with Bowden along for the ride. GOATsecki also has four touchdowns in that time span and it seems like another threat in the middle of the field has brightened his outlook a little bit. In his last three games, Gesicki has seen 22 targets and I’m loving that stat. He’s eighth in route percentage so even though we wish he played a few more snaps, Gesicki is only on the field to catch passes. Vegas has only given up five scores but they’re in the bottom half in the yards allowed as well. I’m just not sure if I can fit him at this position yet. He would also take a backseat to Kittle without question.
D/ST – I just can’t see spending top dollar on a defense on a three gamer. There’s only so many values that we can play in one lineup and I’m SURELY not sacrificing a Kyler/Nuk stack just to play Miami. They have a top 12 pressure rate on the season, almost 40 sacks and lead the league in takeaways. The price is justified by those stats but it’s still a hard one to fit salary-wise.
Cash – Gaskin, Gesicki, Bowden
GPP – Parker, Tua, D/ST
Raiders – Pace is 25th
QB – If there’s a quarterback that I’m willing to play over Kyler, it’s going to be Marcus Mariota. That sounds like a weird sentence but let’s talk about it. It seems that Derek Carr has a solid chance to miss this game with a significant groin injury. Mariota looked phenomenal in relief on Thursday night, throwing for 226 yards and a touchdown to go with 88 rushing yards and a rushing score. That latter part is exactly why I’m interested in Mariota. The Miami defense overall is vastly better than the Chargers defense. However, the Raiders are willing to use Mariota’s legs and that is so valuable at his price tag. Even though the Dolphins are the fifth-best pass defense in DVOA, Mariota still has 3-4x ability here if he’s going to run. Injecting the offense with some zone read concepts in the middle of a game makes me believe Vegas will do it again this week if Mariota is active. That can give any defense some fits.
Welp. I was really sort of interested in Mariota, but Carr practiced fully on Wednesday. I’m not sure a significant groin injury lasts under a week, but that’s just me. Anyways, I’m even more set on Kyler at this point. I’m not dissing Carr, who has played well this season. He’s just not going run like Mariota did and the makes it much tougher to get close to the “likely” score for Kyler. Carr’s efficiency is average across the board, sitting around 13th-16th in yards, touchdowns, pDB and attempts. With Miami fifth in DVOA against the pass, it’s a tougher matchup for Carr and I expect his favorite target to have a tough road himself. That could leave Carr’s ceiling even lower.
RB – Josh Jacobs being the most expensive back on the slate leaves him in an intriguing spot. Miami is 23rd in DVOA against the run but also has only allowed 1,293 rushing yards so far to backs. We know that Vegas is going to pound the ball as he had 26 rush attempts last week and three receptions. Even with overtime noted, Jacobs gets a heavy workload when he can. The issue with him is when they’re behind, it’s not always a big game for Jacobs. His preferred script is either close or winning so it’s imperative to nail the game script. I don’t think Miami runs away and hides here but with the salary, I do prefer other backs. If he’s not super popular, the GPP case is easy to build. Likewise, if he’s super chalky, fading could be key if he only scores around 12-15 DK.
WR – This is probably the easiest group to fade on the slate. The passing game runs through the tight end position and no receiver has more than a 15.7% target share, which belongs to Nelson Agholor. That’s not exactly the mark we hope for considering what we can have for $400 more in Marvin Jones. The good news for Agholor is he does lead the team in EZ targets at 12 and his aDOT is 14.4 which translates to leading in air yards share. My biggest fear with Agholor is the matchup on the outside. He’s playing 75% on the outside and that’s going to leave him mostly on Xavien Howard. The Dolphins corner is fifth in catch rate allowed, 12th in pPT and first in passer rating allowed at 49.7.
You could make an argument for Hunter Renfrow in the slot with attention on Darren Waller, but that’s a thin play. He’s barely above a 14% target share and has all of five RZ targets on the season. The matchup with Nik Needham who has climbed all the way up to eighth in passer rating allowed and fifth in pPT at 1.30. There’s better punt options on the board in my mind.
TE – I know Waller is coming off an enormous game, but I’m not sure I want to spend up on him this week. Coach Brian Flores of the Dolphins is quickly becoming one of the more prominent coaches in football and he’s going to figure out ways to make it difficult for Waller. I would be stunned if he’s not rolling the bulk of the coverage to Waller every single snap and making Agholor or others beat them. That’s about the only reason to not play Waller, because he is the alpha in the passing game. He owns a 28.2% target share, 25.2% share of the air yards and has 21 targets in the RZ for a 35.6% share. Fading him is based purely on Flores and salary. It doesn’t help that Miami is the eighth-best team in DK points per game against tight ends. I’m hoping Kittle plays so this is a much easier call.
D/ST – It might be against a rookie quarterback, but I can’t see much of a path for the Raiders defense. They are tied for the second-fewest sacks on the season and the 15 takeaways are the fourth-least. I’m passing here with such little splash play ability.
Cash – Jacobs
GPP – Waller, Carr
Core Four
Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Leonard Fournette, Marvin Jones
As I stated above, the Kyler/Hopkins stack is the starting point in any format for me. They represent the highest upside of any two players at their position in my mind. We need some savings and Fournette and Jones are absolutely perfect for that. Fournette gets a glorious spot and has 20 touch potential, while Jones is the cheapest alpha receiver on the board. His target share and air yards cannot be ignored at his salary.
*Update* The way the slate has broken, the three running back approach is a lot more viable than I thought. We have three backs that are not more expensive than $5,500 all projected to lead their backfields. It’s a rare slate to get that style of pricing and production.
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