Joe DiCarlo 
And we’ve made it all the way to Week 18 to wrap up another exciting season for DFS in the NFL. Happy New Year everybody, now let’s bring in 2025 with some extra cash in your pockets. This breakdown will be a full 13-game banger, however, most of the league will be winding down as the playoff picture is all said and done with only a couple of teams playing for their lives in the postseason.
This will be a very challenging week for DFS, since so many starters may not even suit up, second and third-string skill-set players are who we’ll be targeting on teams with nothing on the table. Start your studs in the meaningful games, and if you’re left with some salary when your lineup is done, leave it be.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 1/5/25
Panthers @ Falcons (-8.5) (O/U 47.5)
We kick off the regular season in Atlanta as the Falcons will host the Panthers in an NFC South battle. Atlanta will be paying close attention to the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game as they rest on the bench since their postseason fate rests in the hands of a beat-up Saints team to pull off the unthinkable upset. Carolina will have no reason even to play spoiler this weekend, yet will aim to go out guns blazing in an offense revitalized with Bryce Young.
I see Atlanta looking to close out the season strong in a juicy matchup this weekend. Michael Penix has looked cozy in this offense, nearly leading his team to victory in Washington losing in overtime. The worst-ranked defense that will be playing its third and fourth-stringers will help Penix thrive this weekend. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are also usable for DFS, as they’ve all scored alongside him in his two starts.
Young has finished out the end of the season strong. scoring 16 or more fantasy points in five of his last six starts. He’s got to thank veteran Adam Thielen and the coaching staff for the progress, as the veteran wideout caught three touchdowns in their last two games together. The Falcons offer a whopping 221 passing yards per game and are 29th in DVOA to opposing wideouts, Thielen is the only game in town for Carolina and safe for cash.
Cash: Bijan Robinson, Adam Thielen
GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Bryce Young, Xavier Legette
Commanders @ Cowboys (+4) (O/U 44)
Washington heads over to Dallas to beat up on the Cowboys in a game where the Commanders will try to move up a notch in the playoff picture. Starters will be out there for Washington, and Dallas may be very short-handed at home to put up a fight. For DFS it would be safer to lean more on the Commanders’ side of the ball as they’ll have something to look forward to with a win as opposed to a Cowboys team that’s checked out for the year.
Cooper Rush is down to the bare bones in weaponry on the offense. The Cowboys are down to Jake Ferguson and Rico Dowdle as far as skills set pieces for Rush to utilize, and that’s scary. Start up that Commanders’ defense in your GPP or cash game lineups, and don’t try to be cute with using any Cowboys for lineups against a young and hungry Commanders squad.
We’ve loved Jayden Daniels all season so let’s go back to the well to close it out. Terry McLaurin was shut down by Atlanta corner AJ Terrell last week holding him to only one catch, so look for him to bounce back against the second-to-worst defense in Dallas. Brian Robinson, Zach Ertz, and Olamide Zaccheaus should also thrive in the season finale.
Cash: Jayden Daniels
GPP: Commanders DST, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz
Bears @ Packers (-9.5) (O/U 40.5)
Next. we head up north to a meaningless game for both sides as the Bears visit the Packers in Green Bay. Although the Packers have clinched a playoff spot, they lie in the NFC North which is dominated by the Lions and Vikings, and will be a road team regardless in the Wild Card Round next weekend. Chicago will look to end their year on a better note after losing 6-3 to Seattle last Thursday night.
In Green Bay, running back Emanuel Wilson seems like a solid play this week, with Josh Jacobs possibly getting some rest. He’ll face a Bears’ defense that allows over 133 yards rushing per game, and with third-stringer Chris Brooks banged up, Wilson could play 75% of the snaps. Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, Malik Heath, and tight end Luke Musgrave are also candidates to see some extra run this weekend as Green Bay could rest some other starters. All are GPP options.
The Bears will try to end their season at Lambeau on a high note so we can see plenty of Caleb Williams in the closer. As for his weapons, I can’t trust veterans Keenan Allen and DJ Moore to be on the field for the entire game, and the salary for DFS may be too high to soak up. Williams threw his first INT in eight games last week while ranking first in the league in deep ball attempts and second in air yards.
Cash: Dontayvion Wicks
GPP: Emanuel Wilson, Malik Heath, Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave, Caleb Williams
Jaguars @ Colts (-5) (U/O 45.5)
Over to the AFC South, we’ll check out two teams with zero to suit up for except pride and sweat as the Jags take on the Colts. Two terrible defenses will collide inside a dome and clear of any sort of winter weather, hence the 45-point total from Vegas is on the table.
Joe Flacco peppered Michael Pittman with ten targets against the Giants last week, catching nine of them for 109 yards and a touchdown. Jonathan Taylor also ruled the backfield in that same game without Anthony Richardson to vulture carries. Taylor ran for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Both can see the same production and volume this week against a horrid Jacksonville defense that will have a season to forget in 2024-25.
Jacksonville still has only one game in town, and as I mentioned in last week’s write-up, his name is Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie on the season has caught 80 receptions for 1779 yards and ten touchdowns, no matter who is under center. On a slate where not many studs are playable over $7K this week on DraftKings, he’s one to consider especially against a Colts’ secondary that was just torched by former LSU teammate Malik Nabers.
Cash: Brian Thomas, Jonathan Taylor
GPP: Michael Pittman
Bills @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 38)
We arrive into the AFC East between two teams already announcing they will be sitting key players come Sunday afternoon. Buffalo is locked into the second seed of the conference and is mentioning rolling out Josh Allen for a series and than sitting him in order to keep his consecutive start streak alive. However, New England is also planning to sit Drake Maye out possibly out of caution for injury, but speculation is dictating that the Patriots have their eyes on the number one pick in the draft secured with a loss.
In Buffalo, you’ll have to dig deep for pieces to start in DFS at receiver and tight end, but at running back you can bet your last dollar that the rookie Ray Davis will get all the work out of the backfield. The fourth-round pick out of Kentucky has been a favorite of the offense on the goal line, as he’s scored five touchdowns on the year. He’ll see a full plate this weekend as the Bills will sit James Cook to rest up for the postseason.
Whether Drake Maye gets the start or Jacoby Brisset, it’s not going to be pretty especially if the Pats are in tank mode for the number one overall pick this year. That Bills’ DST is only $3,100 on DraftKings and I have my eyes on it now that the speculation is out on the team’s possible plans to end the season.
Cash: Bills DST
GPP: Ray Davis
Giants @ Eagles (-3) (O/U 38.5)
On to the NFC East in another matchup where nothing is at stake as the playoff-bound Eagles host the dreadful Giants in the season finale. Philadelphia announced this week they will rest their starters, which is somewhat of a bummer for us not to see the history of the rushing record possibly broken by Saquon Barkley. New York threw off the draft order entirely last week by dropping all the way to fourth by beating the Colts, which leads us to believe coach Brian Dabol is playing for his job.
With Jalen Hurts set to sit out another week, Kenny Pickett should draw another start, but nothing is set in stone according to head coach Nick Sirianni. As bad as that Giants defense is, it could be too risky to start Pickett along with some practice squad receivers for DFS this week. Running back Kenneth Gainwell will be the guy instead of Barkley, and against this Giants’ team that allows over 140 yards per game on the ground, I’ll gladly take a shot in one of my lineups.
Dabol is running scared for his job, and by no means does he care about the Giants’ position in the draft after Drew Lock and company put up 45 points on the Colts last weekend. Lock finally realizes where his bread is buttered, and that’s with Malik Nabers. The two connected for 171 yards and two touchdowns last week and is in line for even more work against an Eagles team that will be resting key players on defense.
Cash: Malik Nabers
GPP: Kenneth Gainwell
Saints @ Bucs (-13.5) (O/U 43.5)
Finally, we reach a game on the slate where a team has something at stake as the Saints visit the Bucs in Tampa. The spread says it all as Baker Mayfield and company will let it all hang out against a New Orleans defense that threw in the towel months ago. This game should see a ton of ownership, so get your cash game lineups ready to draft in this spot, as the Bucs need to win and get into the playoffs.
Everyone in orange uniforms is viable for DFS this week, especially Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. Not only are they one of the best quarterback/receiver combos in the league, they have some contract incentives coming their way if they perform well. If Mayfield can stay in the top ten in passer rating, touchdowns, yards per attempt, and completion percentage, he’ll rake in another $2.5 million on top of the $500K for making the playoffs. Evans will see an extra $3 Million for five catches and 85 yards which will put him at 70 receptions and 1,000 yards for the season. Evans will also hit a milestone of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons if he can hit the 85 mark.
As for New Orleans, although the Bucs have been thrown on all year long, it’s hard to trust Spencer Rattler. Let’s stick to the basics, use the Bucs’ DST, and get creative elsewhere on the slate. Tampa has way too much on the line and will be in shut-down mode as they strive to make the playoffs.
Cash: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans
GPP: Bucky Irving, Cade Otton (if healthy), Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, Bucs DST
Texans @ Titans (-1) (O/U 38.5)
We head to the AFC South for a game with no impact on the playoff race as Houston will head into Tennessee to end the season. The Texans have looked like a wounded duck closing into the postseason, losing 31-2 against Baltimore at home and dropping three of their last five games. Tennessee should provide a nice landing strip for the Texans offense to get back on track, as they’ll be taking a look at their bench players this week.
Houston has nothing to gain in Week 18, but their offense has been flat due to offensive line issues and injuries at receiver. Head coach DeMeco Ryans spoke this week on getting Diontae Johnson up to speed in the offensive scheme and ready for the playoffs. He’s a nice play for only $3,700 on DraftKings for a receiver that should see plenty of work from CJ Stroud or Davis Mills a week away from the postseason.
Since Houston has nothing to play for they’ll be sitting some key defensive players as well. It looks like Tony Pollard will be good to go as Tyjae Spears is doubtful to play in the Titans’ backfield. If Pollard can gather 83 yards rushing, there’ll be a $250K check waiting for him at the end of the year as a bonus for reaching 1,100 yards. If he plays, he’s a solid play at running back for cash.
Cash: Tony Pollard (if healthy)
GPP: Diontae Johnson
Niners @ Cardinals (-3) (O/U 44)
We’ll head over to the NFC West in a game where nothing really matters about the outcome of the contest as the Niners take on the Cardinals. Both teams will aim to put a stamp on closing out the season on a positive note for 2025. Not everyone will be suiting up, so here’s who to roster for DFS if you’re interested in this part of the afternoon slate:
Josh Dobbs will take under center for the banged-up Brock Purdy, which will be great news for running back Isaac Guerendo and tight end George Kittle if he’s good to go for Sunday. Dobbs’ tenure at quarterback over the course of his career has been very beneficial to his running backs and tight ends alongside him (TJ Hockenson ’23; Chig Okonkwo ’22; Trey McBride ’23; James Conner ’23). Both are GPP candidates and it’s safe to say they should play a decent amount of snaps in the finale. Ricky Pearsall had his rookie breakout game this past weekend against Detroit, blowing up for 141 yards from eight catches with a score. He should see plenty of work as the Niners have no reason to play their veterans.
For Arizona, James Conner will not make it to the last game of the year, and the last man standing in the backfield is former Jet great Michael Carter Jr. He’s a bargain at $4,700 on DraftKings with no one even sniffing a portion of the workload with Conner, Trey Benson, and Emari Demercado all unavailable at the position. Also, look for Kyler Murray and Trey McBride to build off of last week’s chemistry of 12REC/123YDS/1TD in a game to end the year on a good foot.
CASH: Michael Carter Jr., Ricky Pearsall
GPP: Josh Dobbs, Kyler Murray, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride
Chiefs @ Broncos (-10) (O/U 38.5)
The number-one seed in the AFC will roll out their bench this week in order to rest some starters in Denver as the Chiefs take on the Broncos. Kansas City has nothing to play for while the Broncos are yearning for a playoff spot with a win at home. Now that we have another team with some incentive to play, let’s check out who will be available for DFS.
Denver has it all laid out for them to enter the postseason as all they’ll need to do is knock off the Chiefs’ practice squad. Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims will all be sure things to roster this week, but their running back three-headed monster will continue to be a conundrum to decide on to start. Courtland Sutton needs 82 yards to reach the 1,065 mark which will earn him an extra $500K.
Carson Wentz returns under center for the first time since Week 18 of last season, and he won’t be alone as far as backups for Kansas City. Using any of the reigning champs’ second and third stringers could be risky for DFS, but if you really want a piece of this team, consider Justin Watson, Noah Gray, and Carson Steele to lead the backfield, along with dart throws like Justyn Ross at min-price to get different in your lineups.
CASH: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton
GPP: Carson Wentz, Marvin Mims, Carson Steele, Justin Watson, Noah Gray, Justyn Ross
Seahawks @ Rams (+3) (O/U 39.5)
The Seahawks will end their season on the road in LA to face off against the division-champion Rams, who’ll also be resting their starters. Quarterback Geno Smith will be on the field for some incentive motivation, so of all the well known players in this matchup, the Seattle side may be more useful in DFS going up against back ups on defense in LA.
Rams head coach Sean McVey spoke this week on resting his starters, with no desire to move up the ranks in playoff positioning at home. He also touted third-round pick running back Blake Corrum to see a heavy workload this weekend. Seattle allowed over 120 yards per game rushing with their starting defense, so Blake may have an even better matchup since Seattle will play their second and third-tier defense. Jimmy Garoppolo will fill in for Matt Stafford and will see the likes of Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington running routes. All are great GPP options.
Once Geno Smith reaches 184 passing yards, holds his completion percentage to or above 70%, and leads his team to a 10th win, he’ll be two million dollars richer on Sunday night. He’ll continue to look for wideout Jaxson Smith-Njigba to move the football, who could break Tyler Lockett’s all-time single-season record once he catches five receptions. Both make a ton of sense for lineups in a week that is full of question marks on who to start.
CASH: Blake Corrum, Geno Smith
GPP: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell
Chargers @ Raiders (+5.5) (O/U 41.5)
LA heads across the state to battle Vegas in a game that they may want to win depending on the outcome of the Bengals/Steelers game. If Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati on Saturday than the Chargers can lock up the fifth seed with a win in Vegas.
Say the Bengals do in fact win, Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins, and Ladd McConkey will have a great matchup against the pitiful Raiders’ defense that will be showcasing their practice squad in the finale. Although if the opposite happens, be prepared to fade the Chargers’ studs as there will be no motivation to win.
Vegas will be on the field solely to elevate their rookie star tight end Brock Bowers to top up the rookie reception record in Week 18. The record was held by Puka Nacua, who set the reception record with 105. Bowers now has the record with 108 and will look to tack on some more receptions and keep that record longer for himself for years to come.
CASH: Brock Bowers
GPP: Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey
Dolphins @ Jets (+1.5) (O/U 39.5)
Finally, to end the slate and the breakdown for the regular season we’ll see the Dolphins try to sneak into the playoffs against a Jets team that may see Aaron Rodgers play his last NFL game on Sunday. Miami locks up a Wild Card game if Denver loses to the Chiefs and they beat the Jets. They’ll need the win without some key players however, so let’s wrap this up and start building winning lineups.
Tyler Huntley will get the call once again for Miami in place of Tua Tagovailoa but may be without top weapons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as they both enter the weekend with questionable tags. This will put all the work on De’Von Achane’s shoulders to carry the Dolphins into the playoffs if Denver fails to take out the Chiefs on Sunday. New York may be inclined to stack the box if Hill and Waddle are out, so the Jets DST for only $2,600 on DraftKings would be a roster-able defense.
Aaron Rodgers may be playing his final game for New York and possibly his career this Sunday. But he’s one touchdown pass away from history and joining the 500 club. The Dolphins will put on the heat and be very motivated to make the postseason, but if Denver ends up with a big lead in the second half over Kansas City, Miami may begin to pull its starters. Rodgers could see an easier path to history if Denver crushes the Dolphins’ hopes. Blinders will be on for Davantae Adams at receiver in the closer, especially after Garrett Wilson’s X account posts.
CASH: Jets DST
GPP: De’Von Achane, Davante Adams
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 18 and the NFL 2024 season! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
