Joe DiCarlo 
We’ve finally reached the end of the road, Week 18 is here to wrap up the 2023-24 season. Paying attention here will be crucial for DFS, as some teams will be putting it all on the line to make the postseason, and others will be resting their starters as they already locked up a playoff slot. Be creative, but don’t get too cute with your builds. Stacking players on teams with motivation to win will be one of the safest routes this weekend, so let’s keep it simple.
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Sunday Main Slate 1/7/24
Jaguars @ Titans (+5) (U/O 39.5)
Jacksonville will head into Tennessee looking to clinch the AFC South with a victory, but Vrabel would savor playing spoiler against the division-rival Jaguars. However, it will be an uphill battle for the Jags, as Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk will be game-time decisions. So if CJ Beathard gets another start, Calvin Ridley should still see the majority of targets, although they would be better coming from Lawrence.
In a meaningless game for the Titans, DeAndre Hopkins will be eyeing some incentives to close out the 2023 season. Seven catches and 49 yards will earn him a cool $2.2 million. For DFS that would only total 12 fantasy points, so unless he lands in the endzone or goes bonkers with Ryan Tannehill that may not cut it for tournaments, so please keep him in cash.
Vikings @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 45.5)
Minnesota is a long shot to reach the postseason while Detroit could move up a slot with a win on Sunday. Lions head coach Dan Campbell already said in a press conference this week “We’re playing our starters”, but for how long will they be out there? Campbell has a track record of living on the edge along the sidelines, from refusing PATs and field goals to running out his starters all four quarters in meaningless games. Beware of rostering any Lions for Week 18 for cash games, best keep them in tournaments. Amon-Ra St. Brown is rumored to have been snubbed from the Pro Bowl this season and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is hoping to break some records, take your shot on either.
The carousel at quarterback for the Vikings will land on Nick Mullens to close out the season, as the team is a longshot to make the postseason. He did perform well two weeks ago against Detroit, scoring 23 DK FPTS, as well as lighting up Justin Jefferson’s stat line (6 REC/141 YDS/1 TD). The Vikings may look to build off their previous matchup in Week 16 and end the year on a good note, but keep in mind their season is pretty much over and we may not get a full sample of starters for Minnesota.
Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 37.5)
Cleveland has clinched a Wild Card berth and will be resting their starters, and Jeff Driskel is their starting quarterback. The rest of the gang will be on the shelf, as well as key defensive pieces such as Myles Garrett. Cleveland offers value at running back with this news, and his name is Pierre Strong. He’s run for over five yards per carry on the season and should be relied upon heavily ranking third on the Browns’ depth chart. He’s min-priced for DFS and allows you to get different from the slate on a weekend missing a lot of regulars.
The Bengals season will come to an end this weekend after being eliminated from contention in Week 17. No need to look in their direction for DFS, as the risks will outweigh the rewards in a game where we may see familiar Bengals’ faces on the sidelines in the second half or as late scratches.
Bucs @ Panthers (+4.5) (O/U 37.5)
If the Bucs win, they lock up the NFC South, simple as that. What better opponent can they ask for, as they’ll face the worst team in the league in Carolina. Start your Tampa studs for DFS, and the opportunity share has been consistent all year round. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin shouldered the bulk of the offense for Tampa, and especially Rachaad White. The second-year back will face the worst-ranked run defense and should feast this Sunday, a lock across all formats in a do-or-die game for the Bucs.
As bad as the Panthers have played this year, so has the Bucs’ secondary (32nd in passing yards allowed/game). DJ Chark will see plenty of Jamel Dean, which could end his season on a high note for fantasy. Chark is another sneaky dart throw for GPPs on the slate, and under $4K on DraftKings is very tempting.
Falcons @ Saints (-3) (O/U 42)
Back to the NFC South for two teams that have a shot at the division if Carolina can pull off the unthinkable upset, allowing the winner of this matchup the champs. Saints wideout Chris Olave does not carry an injury designation going into the weekend, making him the most dynamic player in this game to target for DFS. I’m going to go out on a limb here also, Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill has been quiet lately, and what better week to get him going again than this one? Alvin Kamara is a game-time decision and the coaching staff loves to use trickery with a lot at stake. Taysom is a boom or bust option for New Orleans, but if you prefer less risk go Olave.
Hopefully, this week will be the last we see of head coach Arthur Smith in Atlanta, but you never know these days in the NFL. He may be without quarterback Taylor Heinicke in the finale due to an ankle and would divert him back to Desmond Ridder for the third flip-flop this season. Back in Week 12, he connected with Drake London on five of seven targets for 95 yards, giving the wideout some flex appeal at his low to mid-range salary. Take the Drake in a matchup where both teams have something to play for.
Jets @ Patriots (-2) (O/U 30.5)
What do we have here? A 30-point total between two teams that are completely out of the playoff picture. The Jets and Patriots will be playing for pride, but don’t bank on the starters being out for all four quarters. Instead, we may see some auditioning for roster spots in 2024. Playing either defense would be the safest route in this contest, especially if we get some winter weather.
I’d love to use Breece Hall or Zeke Elliot for DFS this weekend, as their matchups are juicy, but they’ll cost you in salary space. It’s best to pay up elsewhere at running back in your cash games, but for tournaments, I’d have no problem with either of the two.
Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5) (O/U 35.5)
I’m dumbfounded by this line sent out by Vegas earlier in the week, I know this is a DFS article but the Chiefs’ second and third-stringers are still in my opinion much better than this broken Brandon Staley Chargers’ team. Give me the backups led by Andy Reid any day of the week, Chiefs’ money line I will be throwing some bets at them this weekend.
Kansas City will be resting all their main guys, so Blaine Gabbert gets the call up to close it out in LA. We’ll see plenty of new faces on Sunday for the Chiefs, which will mean value for our lineups if you decide to look into this game. Guys like Justin Ross, Richie James, Noah Gray, and Blake Bell are all min-priced for DFS, so take a shot on any of these veteran backups in tournaments.
Has everybody seen enough of Easton Stick yet? I’m done with the Chargers as well. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson are receivers I would consider in a heartbeat any other day, but it’s their lack of talent at quarterback that has me heading for the hills for DFS.
Bears @ Packers (-3) (O/U 44)
Jordan Love fresh off the biggest game of his career Sunday night will aim to keep his momentum moving at home in Green Bay, in a win and get in for a Wild Card slot. On the opposite side of the field, however, Justin Fields will continue to showcase his skills for Chicago as they hold the number one pick in the draft, looking for a big payday down the road.
Love should have his team on offense back at full strength, as Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave all may reach the field this Sunday, with Aaron Jones as his main man in the backfield since AJ Dillon will miss the finale.
The Packers have been run all over by opposing running backs all year, allowing over 130 yards per game. The Bears’ Khalil Herbert has retaken the backfield in Chicago, but he could miss this game due to a personal issue. Rochon Johnson and even quarterback Justin Fields may see some extra burn if Herbert doesn’t suit up. Chicago is out of the playoffs but would love to play spoiler to their biggest rival in the division rival, who’s been “owned” by Green Bay over the past decade.
Broncos @ Raiders (-3) (O/U 38)
Here we have another game for pride between two AFC West rivals with nothing to gain for the season closer. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has already said on record “We’re playing everybody”. So we may see plenty of starters for Vegas in an attempt to rally behind Pierce to have an extension for 2024.
O’Connell made Davante Adams WR1 for Week 17, hitting him up for 13 catches for 126 yards and two touchdowns. Backup running back Zamir White slid right into the Vegas backfield with ease, totaling 251 all-purpose yards in two games. I believe this will be a statement game for Vegas, and will play their best players in the finale at home.
The Broncos on the other hand could be having auditions for next season in front of head coach Sean Peyton. Word on the street is we may see plenty of Jaleel McLaughlin for the Broncos in the backfield according to Denver press releases. He’s priced down significantly at running back, so if you’re looking for a paydown spot look no further,
Eagles @ Giants (+5) (O/U 42)
Philly needs a win for the NFC East crown at the Meadowlands, but if Dallas gets a big early lead in Washington, we could see starters on the bench in the second half. So unless you are looking to do some late swapping during the second half of the slate, I would stay away from any of these big-name players for Philadelphia for DFS.
New York led by head coach Brian Dabol will strive to end the year on a high note before some major changes come in the off-season. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been a true veteran for Big Blue, giving the Giants a spark in the offense and keeping opposing defenses honest at the end of the season. The Eagles’ defense under Matt Patricia has been horrendous, becoming a quarterback’s wet dream and ranking dead last in DVOA (32nd). Pairing Taylor with receiver Darius Slayton has been beneficial over the past two weeks, and if the weather stays calm they have the potential to make it a three-peat for DFS.
Seahawks @ Cardinals (+2.5) (O/U 48)
The Seahawks will put all their chips in the middle to make the playoffs, and standing in their way are the Cardinals, who have been exposed all year by opposing offenses. We’ve picked on Arizona practically all year, and against a team itching to make the postseason, we should consider Seahawks players for DFS.
DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, and company will cook for fantasy, so get them in lineups. Especially DK since he missed the first meeting with Arizona, he’ll feast against cornerback Starling Thomas or Antonio Hamilton this weekend.
The Cardinals have put up a good fight to end the year, beating the Eagles on the road last week. Kyler Murray will again not go down without swinging and James Conner has been unstoppable in the backfield (22 and 29 DK FPTS in the last two weeks). I have no problem with running it back with some Arizona.
Rams @ Niners (-4) (O/U 41)
Both NFC West rivals will roll out their backups in this matchup as they have clinched playoff spots and a win or loss does not affect their positions in the seeding. No Stafford, Kupp, or Kyren for the Rams. Puca Nacua will play though, but possibly until he breaks the single-season rookie record for yards, where he only needs 30 to break it. Puca may be sidelined after the milestone, so be careful not to step into that trap.
For the Niners, Sam Darnold will start under center, along with Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason in the backfield. Tight end George Kittle may get some rest along with receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to join Christian McCaffrey. The only Niner we can trust is Juan Jennings this week, but he is still in concussion protocol. If he clears the final stage, he can be in line for a ton of targets from Darnold.
Cowboys @ Commanders (+13) (O/U 46.5)
Finally, we get to Dallas, as a win in Washington gives them the division and number two seed in the NFC, clinching home-field advantage for two potential playoff games. The Cowboys have one of the best matchups on paper to do so, as the Commanders have bled out points and filled stat sheets all year long for opposing offenses.
Dak, CeeDee, Pollard, Cooks, and Fergusen are all in play this weekend, where we could see some weather come into effect. Dallas will do what they do best in these situations, beat up on really bad defenses.
The Commanders will benefit from losing this game, as that would lock up the number two draft pick. But head coach Ron Rivera could be on unemployment this Monday, so he could do everything in his power to win, even better for the Cowboys for DFS if they put up a fight. As far as using any Commanders, I’d take a shot on a cheap Brian Robinson in GPPs. Dallas has struggled to defend against the run in their previous two games, so why not Robinson with Carlos Rodriguez on IR and Antonio Gibson as strictly a third-down guy?
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 18. What a season, hope you all enjoyed my content! You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
