Joe DiCarlo 
The end of the regular season is almost here. As we approach, some teams will play their hearts out while others will watch the play clock. These last couple of weeks will be crucial to the breakdown for DFS as we do not want to step on these landmines and only invest in teams with playoff desire rather than having their minds set on the offseason.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 12/29/24
Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 46)
We start in the AFC East where the Jets fly upstate to Buffalo New York to take on the Bills. The home team will be heavy favorites again on a bitter-cold afternoon and aim to stay on the tails of the Chiefs for second place in the conference. New York, on the other hand, is a team we may want to avoid as they are totally out of the playoff picture and only looking for something to build on for next year.
Baltimore’s win on Christmas day puts them one game out of second place in the conference so Buffalo will be all business on the field this Sunday. The Jets’ defense has checked out and not played to their potential in the second half of the season, so look for Josh Allen to have a bounce-back game this week. His receivers will all be available, but running back James Cook has put up back-to-back 30-fantasy point weeks. If the game script plays out, Cook could have another solid outing against his price tag of $7,200 on DraftKings. Ray Davis at $4,200 is a decent value if you think this game really gets out of hand and the Bills take Cook off the field in the second half to let the rookie get some burn.
As I mentioned above, with only two games left in the season it will be very risky to invest in the starting Jets’ offense with nothing left in the tank, especially against a Bills’ defense looking to lock up the second seed. The locker room has been upside down with Garrett Wilson voicing his anger on social media about his role in the offense, and the backfield has become a three-headed monster with Hall, Allen, and Isaiah Davis all getting a piece of the pie. Breece Hall got the most reps with a 77% snap rate, and at only $6,300, it is a bargain if he can carve up the Bills’ defense that is still 30th in DVOA to opposing RBs.
Cash: Josh Allen
GPP: Bills DST, Breece Hall, James Cook, Ray Davis
Colts @ Giants (+8) (O/U 40.5)
Indianapolis will travel to the Metro Area as they look to secure a playoff berth against a home Giants team that continues to disappoint its fans. In 46 years have I never seen a Giants team so awful, its fans are chartering planes to fly banners over the stadium with messages to ownership of their disgust. The Colts will be the team to invest in for DFS this week, not Big Blue.
Jonathan Taylor made our write-up last week for GPPs but this week he’ll be a cash game play as the Giants’ defense has been a turnstile to opposing running backs, allowing over 142 yards rushing per game. Quarterback Anthony Richardson will also feast with his legs, along with the Colts’ DST. Richardson only attempted 11 passes last week and may repeat that performance if the Colts have their way.
The Drew Lock Giants were unbearable to watch last week, allowing two pick-sixes to Atlanta last Sunday. Now with their best weapon on offense missing practice all week, New York will be a full fade if Malik Nabers sits out. Tyrone Tracey at running back has been a stud lately, but he’s missed practice also this week with an ankle injury. Watch injury reports for New York this week but to be honest, I’d rather look elsewhere for DFS, New York is a team headed to the first pick in the draft.
Cash: Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Colts DST
GPP: Josh Downs, Malik Nabers (if healthy), Tyrone Tracey (if healthy)
Update: Anthony Richardson has not practiced, Joe Flacco may get the start. Rain in the forecast, watch the weather. Richardson now OUT.
Cowboys @ Eagles (-7.5) (O/U 43)
We’ll now check into the NFC East in a divisional lopsided matchup between the Cowboys and Eagles. Philadelphia’s spread continues to drop going from 9 to 7.5 points over the past two days because of Jalen Hurts missing practice. Bad news for Philly fans if he misses this week’s juicy matchup, but good news for us in DFS.
Jalen Hurts in the concussion protocol provides us a clearer path to figuring out the Eagles’ game plan this Sunday against the league’s 30th-ranked defense. Run the ball with Saquon, or drop back to throw out to AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith. If backup quarterback Kenny Pickett can shake a rib injury he suffered on Sunday, he can also be a good start for GPPs with his mid-$5K pricetag. But if neither Hurts nor Pickett can roll out, Philly will be down to a third-stringer sixth-round pick Tanner McKee to make his first career start at quarterback.
Dallas is officially out of playoff contention, so don’t be surprised if we see CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the starter’s reps begin to dwindle this Sunday. Their second and third-string players may also be facing a very dominating top-five defense at home. The only play I can see happening when the Dallas offense is on the field is to start the Eagles DST for DFS, and are very affordable on DraftKings at $3,100.
Cash: Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST
GPP: Kenny Pickett (if healthy), AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, all Cowboys are risky
Update: Jalen Hurts is Out. Watch the weather for some rain. Pass catchers and quarterbacks could be downgraded. Both defenses grade up in heavy rain. CeeDee Lamb is OUT.
Panthers @ Bucs (-8) (U/O 49.5)
The aspiring Panthers will make their way into Tampa for an NFC South matchup against the Bucs. Carolina continues to play better each week and is gaining confidence by recently defeating the Cardinals, eliminating them from the playoffs. Will lightning strike twice this week as they face a Bucs team in contention for the division? Only time will tell in what seems to be a fun-to-watch game.
Tampa’s defense has been thrown on all season long, so why stray away from a $5,600 Bryce Young on DraftKings? He put up 27 FPTS. last week and 23 back in Week 13 against this same Bucs defense that has zero pass rushers capable of putting on the pressure. Adam Thielen has been his preferred weapon of choice when not handing it off to Chuba Hubbard. All three are viable in cash or GPPs.
It’s do or die for the Bucs at home, so Baker and the crew will be all hands on deck to gain a Wild Card slot or Division Title. Carolina has been a doormat for opposing offenses all year except for the last couple of weeks where they have given teams like the Eagles a run for their money. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and especially Bucky Irving who draws the best DVOA matchup of 32nd to opposing running backs. Bucs need to win, for DFS these studs are good to go.
Update: Watch the weather, there could be a washout with rain. Quarterbacks and receivers may be affected. Defenses get a bump up.
Cash: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen
GPP: Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen McMillan, Baker Mayfield, Payne Durham
Update: Chuba Hubbard placed on IR; Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone are on deck. Cade Otton is OUT
Titans @ Jaguars (-1) (O/U 41)
Welcome to one of my favorite games on the slate. Two teams totally with nothing to play for that each have awful defenses. No pressure for Tennessee as they travel to Jacksonville in a contest that will just be about the players breaking a sweat. Here we can find plenty of value in the skill positions where we then can pay up in the worthier games on the slate.
Mason Rudolph started out slow last week in Indianapolis but tore it up in the second half to finish with over 17 fantasy points. If he should have a repeat performance, that’s a 3X value and a paydown at quarterback option. He’s tethered his targets to tight end Chig Okonkwo (21 in his last two games), but all of his teammates are worth a shot in DFS at their low prices. But watch the weather, if it downpours, stick to running back Tyjae Spears who’s taking over the backfield for the Titans (9 receptions, 3 touchdowns in his last two games). Tennessee is a GPP team to aim for.
The other side of the coin features one Jaguar only, and that’s Brian Thomas Jr. He’s put up Justin Jefferson-type numbers in his last two games (31.25/35.5 DKFPTS), but with the possible rain and tough matchup lining up across from Chidobe Awuzie, his $6,800 tag on DraftKings may be too risky. Jonathan Taylor obliterated the Titans on foot last week, consider Tank Bigsby a safer and cheaper play at running back for Jacksonville, especially in the possible weather. Both defenses are also in play since each team is also turnover-prone.
Cash: Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears
GPP: Mason Rudolph, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tank Bigsby, Brian Thomas
Update: Tony Pollard is OUT
Raiders @ Saints (-1) (O/U 39.5)
Here’s another stinker, except this one will be weatherproof in the Big Easy as the Raiders take on the Saints. For the second game in a row, it will be two teams with bottom-ranked defenses playing for pride. I’m only looking to pay down in this spot, not pay up for DFS. Let’s check out who we can stomach in this matchup.
As the Saints begin to get healthier, another key player bites the dust. Chris Olave may return after being out for eight weeks, along with MVS, but Alvin Kamara will be out of the lineup once again. Kendre Miller faced a stacked box and Rattler was useless in the Saints’ 34-0 loss on Monday Night. The Raiders DST is a cash game play this week priced at only $2,600 on DraftKings.
Aiden O’Connell had a juicy matchup in his past two starts but continues to drop the ball for us in DFS. We’ll focus on the Raiders’ running game in this contest, as the Saints allow close to 140 yards per game rushing. It’s a split backfield, but Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah continue to find the endzone and passing targets from Captain Checkdown O’Connell. Tight end Brock Bowers made his way back to fantasy relevance catching 11 balls for 99 yards. but as the highest-priced tight end on the slate, he’s a GPP lock for low ownership.
Cash: Raiders DST
GPP: Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah
Dolphins @ Browns (+6.5) (O/U 40)
We enter the late afternoon games with a Miami team playing out of desperation to make the playoffs as they are on the bubble. They’ll head north up to Cleveland to battle a Browns team on the outskirts of the league and with spoiler intentions at home. Weather may also be a factor as well in Ohio, so keep an eye on the forecast if you’re looking for a piece of this action.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get his second start at home after a lackluster passing performance in his debut, completing only 58% of his passes for just under 160 yards and two picks. The forecast could make it even worse for the Browns as they’re offense could be at another standstill this week. Jerome Ford was the only game in town last week and could see another heavy workload this Sunday. With Chubb on IR and zero passing capability in Cleveland, Ford scored 24 and 18 fantasy points in his last two games.
Miami needs a win with some help to sneak into the post season, and it’s a win that can be taken by their defense easily. If they can contain Cleveland from advancing the football with DTR under center, we could see another solid De’Von Achane performance (190 total yards and a touchdown in Week 16). The Bengals’ Chase Brown gashed this checked-out Browns defense last week, Achane can easily do the same if better. Again keep an eye on the weather here, Jonnu Smith is another Dolphin in the mix as a top tight end in a much needed win.
Cash: De’Von Achane, Miami DST
GPP: Jonnu Smith, Jerome Ford
Update: Tua is doubtful
Packers @ Vikings (-1.5) (O/U 49)
Finally we wrap it up with the best for last game on the Main Slate. Get your shares of the Packers as they face the Vikings in a very important NFC North matchup where both sides are chasing a win to keep up in the division. It may be raining or snowing out in Minnesota on Sunday, but it doesn’t make a difference in the dome of US Bank Stadium. The last time these two twams met a total of 60 points were put up, Here’s where to target:
Minnesota will have to win out and hope for a Lions loss in hopes of taking first place in the conference with a one week bye. Regardless of matchups, all the key Vikings are in play, especially running back Aaron Jones. For only $6,200 on DraftKings, he’ll be on the field for every play possible against his former team, in which he ran for 93 yards and caught for 46 yards with a touchdown back in Week 3.
Green Bay has been riding the Josh Jacobs train all season long and rightfully so (1,216 rushing yards, 14 TDS). However if the Vikes get out to another early lead like they did back in Week 4, Jordan Love will need to get to work in the passing game. Pay attention carefully to Christian Watson’s recent injury that has kept him out of practice all week. If he’s out, than Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed climb the totem pole at receiver, while Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft gain ground in the target share.
Cash:Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson
GPP: Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, TJ Hockenso
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 17! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
