Joe DiCarlo 
Welcome back to another Main Slate Breakdown as we approach the end of the regular season. We underestimated the skill of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans against that tough Chargers defense, but still hit on plenty of plays for DFS in our last article. Stone Smartt along with the entire Bills/Lions game was a cashed ticket if you went that route. Let’s get right into Week 16 now, as there’ll be plenty of changes in some of the offenses this week, particularly at quarterback.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 12/22/24
Eagles @ Commanders (+3) (O/U 45.5)
We start off with a monster matchup within the NFC East, as the Eagles, who are in first place, will travel to the Capitol to face the Commanders. Both clubs are stacked on each side of the football, so it should be a slugfest in D.C. We’ll want to invest in this game for DFS since it will be all hands on deck for control of the division.
Philly will keep it down to their business as usual in the offense. The volume increased significantly to DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown in targets with the loss of Dallas Goedert to IR, seeing 19 of 23 passing attempts in the game. Bottom line, Head Coach Nick Siriani wants to run the damn ball with Hurts and Barkley (34 Attempts against Pittsburgh). Use these four only for cash games or GPPs.
Jayden Daniels has made a strong case for OROTY as he has completed 75% of his passes in 14 games and ranks second in the league in rushing yards amongst quarterbacks with six rushing touchdowns. However, he’s down to the bare bones at receiver with Terry McLaurin as the last man standing with Zach Ertz suffering a concussion last week. Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus will see some uptick this week if Ertz is out, and Brian Robinson will still own the backfield in a tough matchup (7th best run defense). Ben Sinnott and John Bates will split the reps at tight end also if Ertz misses time, some great GPP options in Washington.
Cash: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels
GPP: Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brian Robinson, and Any other Commanders named above if Ertz is out.
Browns @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 48)
Next, we check in on another division game except this one will be for bragging rights, not playoff contention. These two AFC North clubs have been awful on defense this year, but only the Bengals have the firepower to back it up. Cincinnati will host Cleveland in a DFS algorithm that we adore of when two opposing bottom-of-the-barrel defenses collide. The total is near 50, so let’s dive in.
Joe Burrow continues to light up the scoreboard with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals also have Chase Brown in the backfield who has now established himself as their RB 1, looking like a young Austin Ekeler averaging five catches per game. The Browns’ defense has not as it used to be falling to 26th in the league and averaging 24 points allowed per game. All four Bengals are solid plays this week in your cash or GPP lineups as they sit on top of the NFL in scoring and moving the chains,
Say it ain’t so coach. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has seen enough of Jameis Winston, benching him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This news delivers daggers to our usage of Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receiving options in Cleveland. DTR will have some rushing upside, however, at $4,800 on DraftKings it may be an option to use him solo against the second-to-last-ranked defense in Cincinnati. Running back Jerome Ford is another Browns guy I’d be willing to pay $5,600 on DK this week, as he’ll get the start with Nick Chubb done for the year. Both are GPP-only starts.
Cash: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown
GPP: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerome Ford
Rams @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 46.5)
Here we get an East Coast-West Coast matchup as the Rams travel across the country to square off against the Jets. LA has been on a roll, taking over first place in their division and playing some lights-out football. New York got their first win after losing their last four contests, and will aim to keep the momentum to close out the year.
The Jets’ defense is falling apart at the seams, allowing Mac Jones and the Jaguars to put up 25 points in a game that went down to the final plays. Matt Stafford will be chomping at the bit to fire away this Sunday against this secondary, and Kyren Williams could be leaving his tread marks all over the Meadowlands as the Jets allow over 121 yards per game on the ground. The Rams will play to win in order to keep first place locked up in the NFC West.
Aaron Rodgers has finally made his way back to the top of the QB rankings after two and a half years thanks to a miserable Jaguars defense and some pep in his step with his Netflix documentary airing soon. He’s still a diva, but as long as he puts up some numbers for our lineups, we’ll give him a pass. He threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15, with 198 of the yards and nine catches with two scores going to the apple of his eye Davante Adams. Both are viable again in GPPs this week along with Garrett Wilson who may be force-fed after being left out of the mix last week with only three receptions.
Cash: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
GPP: Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Cooper Kupp, Breece Hall
Cardinals @ Panthers (+4) (U/O 47)
Next, we have Arizona heading to the Carolinas to get back into the win column against the Panthers, a team we have picked on all season. The Cardinals are hanging by a thread to get a Wild Card spot while the Panthers seem to be building some chemistry towards the end of the season, especially on offense. We’ll see some value at key positions for DFS, let’s check them out.
Kyler Murray has fallen all the way down to $6,100 on DraftKings due to his underwhelming performances but has become a cash-game quarterback this week thanks to his matchup. Trey McBride, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will also see a bump in ownership as they will all face the worst-ranked defense all around the league. All will be popular for cash and tournaments this weekend.
The Panthers are beginning to click on offense, but the injuries continue to pile up, unfortunately. Bryce Young has put up decent numbers for his low salary in the $5K range on DraftKings for the past three weeks, but with only Chuba Hubbard and Adam Thielen as the only guys off the injury report so far, he’ll be too risky. Thielen and Hubbard are the only safe plays for DFS for volume and availability on the slate. Cash and GPP will be fine for both.
Cash: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Adam Thielen
GPP: Trey McBride, Chuba Hubbard, Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals DST
Lions @ Bears (+7) (O/U 45.5)
We get ready for another divisional matchup here as the Lions head over to the Windy City to take on the Bears. Detroit has continuously lit up the scoreboard for the month of December while Chicago’s wheels have fallen off for the season. Dan Campbell will be looking to lock up a top seed in the Conference, as the Eagles and Vikings share a record of 12-2 with them, it’ll be a needed victory on the road for Detroit.
In Detroit’s quest for the Super Bowl, they’ll be without David Montgomery who suffered a possible season-ending knee injury this past Sunday. This injury will force Jahmyrr Gibbs into a heavy workload as well as DFS lineups in one of the most prolific offenses in football. A cash game darling will be Gibbs at $7,500 on DraftKings facing a Bears’ defense that has allowed well over 130 yards per game rushing and is 28th in DVOA. ARSB, Goff, Jame-O, and La Porta are also in play, and if you are looking to get different, Craig Reynolds should see some work replacing Montgomery at RB, he’s min-priced at $4K on DraftKings and could be a sleeper if Detroit runs away in this game and he gets garbage- time work.
The last time these two teams met was on Thanksgiving when we witnessed Caleb Williams come to life in the second half to put up a 256/3 stat line, with 39 yards rushing and giving him 26 fantasy points. Detroit’s defense has taken a hit due to injuries and continues to allow opposing offenses to march into the endzone. Williams holds an argument for consideration in lineups priced at only $5,600 on DK, and pairing him with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore makes even more sense at their salaries. Chicago will lean me towards tournament plays instead of cash games.
Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP: Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Jameson Williams, Craig Reynolds
Titans @ Colts (-4.5) (O/U 42.5)
Another divisional game on the slate, this time it’s in the AFC South as the Colts close in on a playoff berth hosting Tennessee. Their schedule will help tremendously as they close out the season, starting with the 3-11 Titans that rank 27th in the league in points allowed per game (25.8). However, the Colts are no strangers to allowing their opponents in the endzone as well so Tennessee will also be a team to consider this week.
Anthony Richardson will see his first and only look at a Titans’ defense that has been thrown at all year due to their passion for clogging up running lanes for their opposition. Although his efficiency has been all over in the passing department, his rushing upside has gained some momentum scoring in his last two starts. His price on DraftKings is still affordable at $5,400 as well as his receivers are both priced in the same ballpark. Jonathan Taylor is even back under $7K this week, just on the discount alone I can see using any of these guys at home against Tennessee.
As I mentioned above, the Colts do give up the goods themselves, allowing an average of 140-plus yards per game rushing. When their opponents get going in that department, thus their passing lanes open up. Now Mason Rudolph will take the reigns once again for the benched Will Levis, and he’s put up 15-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts this year. I would keep him in GPPs but Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard (if healthy) would be cash-game options because of the injuries and possible unavailability of the Titans’ offense.
Cash: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard (if healthy, otherwise Tyjae Spears)
GPP: Anthony Richardson, Mason Rudolph, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor
Giants @ Falcons (-8) (O/U 41)
The 7-7 Falcons will welcome the 2-12 Giants in a much-needed win for Atlanta to keep up the pace with the first-place Bucs. The Giants will be happy to help the cause as they aim to grab a top pick in next year’s draft and continue to get crushed by opposing offenses. Except Atlanta’s offense will be a new one this week with the benching of Kirk Cousins for First Round Draft Pick Michael Penix.
Atlanta shocked the NFL world by taking Penix eighth overall in this year’s draft, and we’ll see perhaps why they did when he takes the field Sunday in a fully weaponized offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. He’s dirt cheap at $4,500 on DK, making him a risky tournament move as he debuts into the NFL. His passing options will also be high-risk, high-reward options like London, Pitts, and Mooney. Bijan Robinson is the only safe, cash-game play this week against a Giants’ run defense that gets gashed for 143 per game on average.
The quarterback carousel continues to spin in New York as Drew Lock gets back under center this week. Atlanta’s DVOA has been morbid, falling to 29th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Malik Nabers remains the focal point of the offense as he’s averaging 12 targets per game in December. Tyrone Tracy has been right behind his rookie teammate hogging all the carries in the backfield. Both are priced affordably and can be used in cash or GPPs, but Drew should be considered an extreme risk because of his recent play and availability to complete an entire game.
Cash: Bijan Robinson, Malik Nabers
GPP: Michael Penix, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Tyrone Tracy
Vikings @ Seahawks (+3.5) (O/U 42.5)
Minnesota looks to keep up with Detroit for first place in the division and will need a win in Seattle to do so. The Seahawks will also have a sense of urgency as they are trying to keep up with the Rams in their division. Both teams’ playoff fates will be at stake in Seattle, so expect the defenses to step it up a notch.
Geno Smith left Sunday night’s loss with a knee injury that seemed at the moment he would be missing some time. Well, he’s back to full practice and in line to start on Sunday, so scratch a Sam Howell start. Minnesota ranks 2nd overall on defense, allowing fewer points, but you may still be able to throw on their secondary. They are dead last in DVOA to opposing wideouts and allow almost 250 yards per game by the pass. Both JSN and DK Metcalf will be a huge value and should see plenty of targets, especially if Minnesota gets rolling early. The Seattle backfield may be getting Kenneth Walker back too, but it could be without Zach Charbonnet. The situation must be monitored for a potential bell-cow opportunity in Seattle.
If and when Minnesota does get on a scoring binge, it would be by the arm of Sam Darnold and the legs of Aaron Jones. The Seahawks allow close to 130 yards per game, and the Vikes love to feed Jones the rock as he holds a 78% carry rate when he’s on the field. Jones scored three times in his last four games and offers a high ceiling for GPPs while pivoting away from the Jahmyr Gibbs chalk. Justin Jefferson, TJ Hock, and Jordan Addison are also solid plays for Week 16.
Cash: Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker (If Charbonnet is OUT)
GPP: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith Njigba, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson
Update: Charbonnet and Walker off injury report
Patriots @ Bills (-14) (O/U 46.5)
Buffalo will welcome the Patriots into an AFC East matchup and as 14-point underdogs this week in Vegas. Buffalo has been playing lights out thanks to MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. New England has their work cut out for them and are already out of the playoff hunt, but don’t expect them to lay down without a fight in this divisional matchup.
Start your Bills for DFS, as they are the hottest team in football. The Pats have been whooped on all year by high-caliber offenses, so, by all means, do not hold back due to the point spread. Their defense also gets a green light being the spread is two touchdowns and the rookie Drake Maye could be pressured into making some difficult passes. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are also great plays for GPPs as if this game does get out of hand, they’ll see more runs than starter James Cook.
The Pats are in for an uphill battle from the looks of the Vegas lines, but hats off to the rookie Drake Maye. Not only has he averaged a completion percentage of 70% in his rookie year, but he’s managed some usage with his feet, racking up 359 yards with two scores. Another off-the-radar play for tournaments is Maye, but if this game gets off-script and is close, consider Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills refuse to be beaten downfield on defense and will allow the run. It’s possibly why they’re ranked 31st in the league’s DVOA.
Cash: Josh Allen
GPP: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Bills DST, Ray Davis
Niners @ Dolphins (-1.5) (O/U 46)
San Fransisco travels to Miami for one last push to get into the postseason; however, the Dolphins themselves have a window of playoff hopes, too. The Niners finally catch a break in sunny Florida after three weeks of brutal weather, but the injuries keep piling up. The Dolphins have also been bitten by the injury bug, and they’ll be without some key players. But with injuries we find value for DFS, so let’s dive in.
Jaylen Waddle will not suit up this Sunday, which will send more targets to Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De’Von Achane from Tua Tagovailoa. However, Tyreek will need to line alongside other receivers before the ball is snapped, and it will be Malik Washington, the rookie out of Virginia. He saw 59% of the snaps upon Waddle’s departure last week and caught five balls for 58 yards. He’s only $3,700 on DraftKings, which is a nice saving on a WR2 in a high-powered offense.
The Niners will be down to their fourth-string running back with Isaac Guerendo being ruled out with a foot and hamstring injury. Patrick Taylor is the next man up at only $5,200 on DraftKings, although I’d rather take another shot on Deebo Samuel who’ll also see some carries and targets with the same price tag. He’s yet to explode this season for a big game, and this may be the one. George Kittle has been a monster for the offense and has everyone’s eye for DFS every week averaging over 16 fantasy points per game.
Cash: George Kittle, Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane
GPP: Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Malik Washington, Deebo Samuel, Patrick Taylor
Jaguars @ Raiders (-1) (U/O 40.5)
Finally, to wrap up the slate we’ll tap into two of the bottom teams in the league going head-to-head in Vegas. Jacksonville will travel to Sin City to battle the Raiders in a meaningless game from a playoff perspective, but fantasy-wise could be interesting as players will be on the field looking to pad their stat sheet.
The Jags put up some decent yardage and cashed in on scoring opportunities last week against the Jets, so why not run it back against another bottom-tier defense in Vegas? Mac Jones is still dirt cheap along with Brian Thomas and tight end Brenton Strange who caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards and is still only $3,500 on DraftKings. All three Jags make nice GPP options along with running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.
Vegas will get their best matchup of the season facing a defense equally as bad as theirs. They’ll get Aiden O’Connell back under center finally after suffering a leg injury in Week 14. That’s great news for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers this week, who will see plenty of better-quality targets against a Jags DVOA of 31st to opposing wide receivers. The Raiders may split carries between Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah, the latter however is more used in the passing game. I don’t mind either one facing a team that allows over 130 yards rushing and ranks 30th in the league defending the position.
Cash: Brock Bowers, Brenton Strange
GPP: Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas, Mac Jones, Aiden O’Connell, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Raiders DST
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
