Joe DiCarlo 
Welcome back to another breakdown as we get another week closer to the playoffs and the season coming to an end. It was another spot on the weekend with a few surprises, but nothing we haven’t seen before in football. Bryce Young, Tommy Tremble, and Adam Thielen were all talked up last week and provided a ton of value while saving your salary if you dropped them in your lineups. Let’s get right to Week 14 fellas, it’s crunch time.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 12/8/24
Panthers @ Eagles (-12) (O/U 46)
The Panthers pack up and hit the road for the “City of Brotherly Love”, but will not see a warm welcoming as 12-point dogs to the Eagles. It’s one of the best hosting one of the worst teams in the NFC, a great matchup for Philly who has been playing on a full head of steam all year. This game seems to be pretty cut and dry so let’s take a look.
The Bucs capitalized last week in Carolina by feeding the ball to Bucky Irving against the worst run defense in the NFL. He made the article last week as well and brought in a sexy 5X value for 30-plus DK points. Mike Evans also had a field day when Baker chose to throw it to his main man, Mike Evans, who hit him up for 28 DKFPTS. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are all in great spots at home this weekend, but perhaps if DeVonta Smith gets healthy at $5,800 on DraftKings the Eagles may want to begin to ramp him up for the playoffs as he’s missed his last two games.
Bryce Young showed us even more last weekend against Tampa, throwing for 298 yards and a touchdown while also rushing in a score himself for nearly 6X his price tag. The real test will be on the cold field of Lincoln Financial against a top-five run and passing defense. This may not be the week to double down on Carolina for DFS in this matchup, but ownership will be very low if you are looking for leverage with another shot at any of these players. Pay up for the Philly D if you can afford them.
Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST
GPP: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (if healthy)
Raiders @ Bucs (-6.5) (O/U 46)
Vegas will head south to face off against a playoff-hungry Bucs team coming off an emotional OT win in Carolina. The Raiders however are beginning to show some precision themselves after Aidan O’Connell returned from IR to throw his arm off in a valiant effort in Kansas City. We targeted that Tampa secondary last week with Carolina and cashed in, so should we run it back?
I can’t get enough silver and black in my DFS lineups this week after what I witnessed against the Bucs last week. Jordan Whitehead and Tykee Smith are severely missed in this secondary that currently has allowed the third most in passing yardage and sixth most passing touchdowns. Aidan O’Connell along with Jakobi Meyers,, Tre Tucker, and Brock Bowers are staples for GPP tournaments. Pay attention to the backfield injury reports as well for Vegas, as we may be able to use Ameer Abdulah and Sincere McCormick if Mattison and White remain sidelined.
Tampa may seem to have a nice matchup on paper against Vegas, but the Raiders are building off a game in Kansas City that held their opponents to one touchdown and sacked Pat Mahomes five times with a fumble. Baker Mayfield hopefully recovers quickly after a cleat stepped on his leg last Sunday because these Raiders could be trouble these days. For DFS we can’t fade any of these Bucs, especially in a shortened slate. All are safe for cash and GPPs, keep an eye out on injury status as always. I love the min-priced Raiders defense ($2,300 on DraftKings) if they do show up again.
Cash: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Brock Bowers, Baker Mayfield
GPP: Aiden O’Connell, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Cade Otton, Raiders DST
Jets @ Dolphins (-6) (O/U 44.5)
The Jets will travel to Miami in an AFC East battle as both teams are on their last legs to make the playoffs. New York, losers of three straight, has struggled on both sides of the football all season and will make one final push to save face. Miami, on the other hand, has found its rhythm again offensively thanks to the return of Tagovailoa. It’s a decent-sized spread of 6, but these two teams know each other pretty well, and it could be a tight game. Here are the DFS plays.
If Aaron Rodgers has anything left in his tank, hopefully, he empties some this weekend in Miami. He’s lately reconnected with Davante Adams in the last three games they’ve connected on 17 of 32 targets for 169 yards and a touchdown. It’s not the most exciting, but the targets are what interests me. Expect a heavy passing game from Rodgers as running back Breece Hall continues to miss practice. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard off IR should see extra looks on Sunday, and if Hall doesn’t suit up, Braelon Allen becomes a lock for cash games at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Rodgers can not take all the blame for the Jets’ failure this season, their defense has been a dumpster fire giving up score after score putting them in losing situations. Gang Green has allowed crucial game-deciding touchdowns in their last three games. The Dolphins have averaged thirty points per game over their last three wins and will be too much to handle for New York who still have no answers on defense. De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa all show up this weekend along with Jonnu Smith who has been a monster piece for this Dolphins’ offense (25 REC/301 YDS/3 TDS in last three games).
Cash: Jonnu Smith, De’Von Achane, Braelon Allen (if Breece Hall is Out)
GPP: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard
Update: Breece Hall is OUT
Falcons @ Vikings (-5.5) (U/O 45.5)
We next get a weather-friendly game in Minnesota as the NFC South-leading Falcons take on the Vikings. Minnesota is a solid 10-2 that has been coached up this season thanks to Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. There’ll also be some familiar faces in town that may have a chip on their shoulder from a year ago, so a revenge game narrative is in effect here. Let’s check it out.
Kirk Cousins is back in town, but will he be ready to get everything off of his chest? After being allowed to test free agency last season, Cousins quickly signed to Atlanta after spending his last six with the Vikings. He’s struggled his last three games, only completing 63% of his passes with five picks. Cousins regardless is a solid GPP option on a short slate connected to Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts, against a pass-funnel Vikings defense. I will never talk you off Bijan Robinson either, with a solid price of $7,500 on DraftKings.
Minnesota will be welcoming Cousins back this week, but will not be rolling out the red carpet I guarantee. He left abruptly, without any chance for Minnesota to counter-offer Atlanta’s deal. Here we are in Week 14 with Kevin O’Connell molding Sam Darnold into a respectable quarterback of a 10-win team. The Falcons ranked 22nd overall defending their own endzone in points allowed, who are 21st in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. However, I’m not afraid to use any Viking this week, especially Justin Jefferson, whose salary has dropped to under $8K and is due a big game after the last few quiet outings.
Cash: Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Drake London
GPP: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison
Saints @ Giants (+5) (O/U 40.5)
The New York Giants are heavy home underdogs, and their total against a disheveled Saints team at the Meadowlands is depressingly low. The forecast does look promising after a cold spell in the NorthEast, so we may be in luck for some big plays from each team’s stars. Both teams are also playing for pride, as their records are hovering at the bottom of the standings.
Both clubs have horrid defenses, and when the two of them clash it makes us do backflips for DFS. The Giants have been gashed in the trenches all year long, allowing the fourth most yards per game at 145. Alvin Kamara stands alone in the backfield now that Taysom Hill is done for the season and is a pay-up cash play at running back. New Orleans is severely thin on offense, which may force more targets to tight ends, such as Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau from Derek Carr.
New Orleans is also guilty of hemorrhaging yardage, the third most total yards per game in the league. It will be Lock, not DeVito under center for New York so we should have a little more faith in them moving the chains. Lock, Nabers, Tracy, and now Daniel Bellinger all make the GPP list against the dejected Saints’ defense. Both defenses are also a fair play this week too given the history of turnovers between the two.
Cash: Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson
GPP: Malik Nabers, Drew Lock, Tyrone Tracy, Daniel Bellinger, MVS, Mason Tipton, Giants DST, Saints DST
Browns @ Steelers (-6.5) (O/U 44)
An AFC North matchup hits the slate as the rejuvenated Jameis Winston and the Browns head into the Steel City to face Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson has also found his swagger back after firing off over 400 yards with three touchdowns against Cincinnati last week. It’s a low total that will be played on the cold field of Arcisure Stadium but after what we witnessed between both clubs last week it’s safe to dip back for DFS.
The Steelers have ranked sixth overall on defense but were ransacked by Burrow and the Bengals for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. If Winston brings the same fire from his last game in Denver, we may have another AFC North shootout. Jerry Jeudy has been fully unlocked in this new and improved pass-heavy offense along with David Njoku and Elijah Moore. However Jameis has gone back to some old habits throwing two pick-sixes last week, so the Steelers DST is another spot to target in lineups.
Cleveland did step up defensively on the road with two picks but gave up 29 points thanks to Winston. Erase those 14 points and they win in Denver, but we’re in Pittsburgh now. Wilson has found his mojo and will keep the momentum moving at home. George Pickens, Wilson’s main target in the offense, somehow came up with a hamstring injury on Friday, so monitoring his status will be a priority up until kickoff. If he can’t suit up, Pat Friermuth, Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, and Van Jefferson will all see an uptick. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will also be involved more if he is in fact out.
Cash: George Pickens (if healthy), Russell Wilson
GPP: Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Pat Friermuth, Elijah Moore
Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 39.5)
I have high hopes for this AFC South matchup regardless of the sub-forty total. Two horrendous defenses will meet face-to-face once again this weekend in Tennessee, so giddy up. The 3-9 Titans will host the 2-10 Jaguars in a matchup being played for draft positioning and future employment next season. Ignore the Vegas total for DFS, here’s why.
The Jags have surrendered chunks of yardage and touchdowns to their opponents all season, allowing nearly 275 through the air and 133 on the ground, along with 28 points per game on average. We gobble up players for DFS with these kinds of matchups, and Levis at $5,000 on DraftKings can easily reach 3X his value on the slate. Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all make it into lineups across any format.
Now Tennessee does not allow a ton of yardage, and ranks second in the league, however, they do allow touchdowns. Twenty through the air and fourteen on the ground to be exact, and the defense is now hanging on by a thread after reading their injury report. Mac Jones returns under center for the Jags and will be peppering targets to Evan Engram and Brian Thomas all afternoon, so get them in your GPPs.
Cash: Tony Pollard, Will Levis, Calvin Ridley
GPP: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Mac Jones, Brian Thomas, Evan Engram
Seahawks @ Cardinals (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)
As we enter the late afternoon slate it kicks off in the NFC West as the Seahawks desperately try to keep the second-place Cardinals off their lead in the division. The last time these two played was just only two weeks ago as Seattle won 16-6 in a battle between the kickers. Hopefully, we see some end-zone visits this weekend in the desert, so let’s check in and see who’s available.
The Cardinals have dropped their last two games to fall to second in the division but will be all hands on deck at home to regain position. Trey McBride was bombarded with targets in their first meeting, cashing in 12 of 15 for 133 yards. McBride should see heavy volume once again as the Cardinals seek to take back first place.
The Seahawks will be without Kenneth Walker this week due to a calf and ankle injury, so fire up Zach Charbonnet in your cash or GPP lineups for only $4,800 on DraftKings. Jaxson Smith Njigba you may want to consider also, as he was the beneficiary of the last game’s only touchdown, however, DK Metcalf is always a solid play on any DFS slate for his ceiling. Both are priced affordably on DraftKings in the low $6K range.
Cash: Zach Charbonnet, Trey McBride
GPP: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf
Bills @ Rams (+4.5) (O/U 49.5)
Now comes the highest total on the slate at 49.5 as the Bills fly to the West Coast to face the Rams on Primetime. Buffalo has looked invincible of late, winners of seven straight games including The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Josh Allen is MVP-bound and is set to make his debut in Hollywood. The Rams do have the firepower to compete with anyone in the league, but will it be enough to put out Buffalo’s fire?
Stafford’s arm has been busy this season, as he’s eighth in pass attempts. Although he’s thrown for almost 700 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last three games, the Bills have defended the pass very well. Against the run, not so well. They allow an average of 122 yards per game on the ground and are 30th in DVOA to opposing running backs. I’ll never tell you to fade Kupp, Nacua, or Stafford, but Kyren Williams may be the most reasonable play against Buffalo. All are GPP and cash game plays.
Josh Allen is a lock week in and week out across the DFS community as we’ve seen over the past few seasons, but who else can be trusted for the Bills in DFS for production? The ball is spread so evenly by Allen that it’s impossible to guess who will go off when all of his receivers are healthy, but we can always count on Cook. James ranks eighth in the league in fantasy points per game averaging just over 17. Both are great for cash, but anyone else should be kept in tournaments only.
Cash: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, James Cook
GPP: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Khalil Shakir
Bears @ Niners (-4) (O/U 44)
Finally, we end the slate in the Bay Area as the struggling and injury-prone Forty Niners host the Bears who are losers of six straight. Injuries bring value to lineups, and a very popular player this week will be uncovered in this part of the breakdown, who should see the highest ownership on the slate. The Niners are desperate for a win, and the Bears may be happy to oblige as their defense has been a wreck.
If you thought San Fransisco’s luck couldn’t get any worse, think again. Not only did they lose McCaffrey again to IR, but they also lost backup running back Jordan Mason. Ownership will be through the roof for Isaac Guerendo to take the reigns at lead back this week, so start him at cash. But for GPPs, it’s perhaps best to pivot to some of the Niner pass-catchers such as George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in a must-win game for Frisco.
Despite the amount of losses and missteps, the rookie Caleb Williams has flourished under new head coach and former OC Tom Brown. In his last two games, Williams has thrown for nearly 600 yards with five touchdowns and NO interceptions. I will take a flyer on Caleb in GPPs with his low $5,600 pricetag on DraftKings along with his veteran receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Cole Kmet was the forgotten man on Thanksgiving and should remain that again as the Niners are third in DVOA to opposing tight ends.
Cash: Isaac Guerendo
GPP: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
