Joe DiCarlo 
We lit up our Discord like a Christmas tree last weekend with all of the green screens! If you took our advice and stuck with our game plan of stacking the Houston/Jacksonville game and then dropping the late hammer with Kyren Williams against Arizona’s dumpster fire run defense, you would be very satisfied.
We’ve got another 10-piece on the menu for Sunday, as the bye weeks are just about over for 2023. None break the 50 mark as far as totals, but a handful lie in the high forties…Let’s keep the momentum going!
As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.
Sunday Main Slate 12/3/23
Dolphins @ Commanders (+9.5) (O/U 47.5)
Open up your wallets in this one fellas. The league’s top-dog receiver Tyreek Hill (88 REC/1,324 YDS/10TDs) gets the dream matchup in Washington lining up across from the craptastic St.-Juste/Fulton secondary (31st in DVOA). If Hill is still thirsty to crack the 2,000-yard mark this season, he’ll have plenty of opportunity in this game. A clear pay-up option along with his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Run them back with a Commander or two. In a game where Washington may be behind multiple scores early, Sam Howell should be pretty busy as usual. Terry McLaurin, Johan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas are all affordable and likely to catch passes this weekend.
Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Waddle/Raheem Mostert
Lions @ Saints (+4) (O/U 47)
The Saints may be pulling fans out of the bleachers to play receiver for them, as the position has been bludgeoned with injuries. If Chris Olave does not make it out of concussion protocols, he’ll join Rasheed Shaheed and Michael Thomas on the sidelines. Captain Check-Down Derek Carr may pepper his running back Alvin Kamara 20 times if that scenario plays out. Or this could be the week A.T. Perry does get some action, we missed with him last week, but we could be in store for decent production if he becomes the Saints’ WR1 by default.
Detroit will be hungry after a disappointing loss at home on Thanksgiving Day. Don’t be afraid of the matchup, as this Saints’ defense has not been as strong lately due to injuries. Bijan Robinson had a career-best 91 yards rushing with two total touchdowns against them, so get in some Gibbs and Montgomery. If Marshon Lattimore misses his second-straight game, it will be smooth sailing for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff will be sneaky pivots for tournaments loaded with Niners and Eagles players.
Honorable Mentions: Sam La Porta; Juwan Johnson
Chargers @ Patriots (+5.5) (O/U 40.5)
The Pats besides their dilemma at quarterback have only one good thing going for them these days, and it’s Rhamondre Stevenson. He’ll have his best matchup of the season on Sunday, as the Chargers rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Remember their tight end, Hunter Henry? Perhaps you will when he lands back in the endzone against his former team, as LA is 28th in DVOA to opposing tight ends…I am a sucker for revenge narratives.
LA will fly into Massachusetts extremely banged up at the wide receiver position. Keenan Allen is the last man standing, but I’m not willing to pay up for him in this matchup, especially with some possible rain this weekend. Austin Ekeler averaging 3 yards per carry at his high price tag is not making my mouth water either for DFS, if you’re looking to get different I don’t mind, but keep the Chargers out of cash games.
Broncos @ Texans (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)
Remember when we were all calling for Sean Payton’s head and Russell Wilson couldn’t be fixed back in Week 4? Fast-forward to Week 13 and now the Broncos enter December as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Winners of five-straight contests, Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton form a cheap, chalky stack that will need to keep up the pace with rookie C.J. Stroud if they want to make it six. Both have built chemistry in Denver, connecting on eight touchdowns this season (3rd in the NFL) while leading the league in routes run (100% route participation, 1st).
Stroud has been lights-out, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 19 touchdowns, spreading the ball around to anyone in a Texans jersey. Some of his targets may fall tight end Brevin Jordan, whose workload will see an uptick after Dalton Schultz is sidelined thanks to his hamstring. Jordan is min-priced and the punt play of the week, so squeeze him into your GPPs. and clear up some cap space for more studs.
Cardinals @ Steelers (-5.5) (O/U 41)
Christmas will be in Pittsburgh for Kenny Pickett a little early this year, as the Cardinals’ disheveled secondary will be on the field this Sunday. Pickett for DFS would be ballsy, but his offense as a whole makes a ton of sense against Arizona. If the weather stays calm, the sub-$5K receivers on DraftKings can crush their price tags against this coverage. George Pickens has been quiet due to a big game, which may come this week. The Cardinals also have playable pieces at receiver, Rondale Moore, and last week’s chalk Greg Dortch can save you a few bucks on DraftKings in the mid-$3K range.
We mentioned Kyren Williams returning from IR and smashing the slate with over 40 fantasy points, and it was against this last in the league, 140 rushing yards allowed per game defense. Jaylen Warren is fine, but Najee Harris is still the goal-line back until we see the difference. Both are a steal on DraftKings in the mid-$5K range and have no reason to be left out of lineups, especially if it pours outside.
Colts @ Titans (+1) (O/U 42.5)
The highest ownership at running back for cash lurks in this game with Zack Moss. Even though the matchup isn’t juicy, he’ll see well more than 20 touches with Jonathon Taylor again on the sidelines. But keep Moss out of tournaments, instead play the Colts’ passing attack and utilize Michael Pittman and Josh Downs against the Titans’ pass-funnel style defense (27th in DVOA to opposing receivers).
Tennessee should move the football easily too in this contest, since Indianapolis hasn’t been able to keep opponents out of the endzone as well. We’ve known the formula for the Titans’ offense since Week One, Hopkins and Henry. Both are under $7K on DraftKings, both can easily hit value at home against the Colts (27th in points allowed per game).
Falcons @ Jets (+2) (O/U 34)
I’ve never imagined I’d see a more embarrassing loss for the Jets than when Mark Sanchez “butt fumbled” off of his offensive lineman, well we did. New York will roll out the same Tim Boyle who threw the first “pick-6 hail-mary” pass in Week 12’s first Black Friday Night game. Yet the Falcons’ Desmond Ridder is no stranger to turning over the football either with eight interceptions and six fumbles on the season. Give me either one of these defenses, the Jets in tournaments preferably.
Panthers @ Bucs (-5) (O/U 37)
The Frank Reich era came and went in just 12 short weeks. The Panthers may come out showing a lot of emotion this week and may do some damage to the Bucs’ defense, who are missing all of their starting linebackers potentially, including Devon White. Tampa has been abused by quarterbacks all year (29th in DVOA), consider Adam Thielen in tournaments under $7K on DraftKings with very little ownership.
You guys already know how we’re attacking the Panthers by now I’m sure. Opposing running backs, and ours against the Panthers are in the low $ 6K range on DraftKings. The 30th-ranked run defense gets to welcome again Rachaad White, who should have no problem trampling the defense. And of course, the un-fadeable Mike Evans, always safe and a red zone monster already with nine touchdowns.
Niners @ Eagles (+3) (U/O 48)
The rematch we’ve all been waiting for since last year’s NFC Conference Championship has finally arrived, and Vegas has the Niners on the road as three-point favorites, which is not sitting well with the locals. We all heard the buzz, that if Purdy stayed in the game last year, the Niners go to the Super Bowl, well that’s ancient history. From a DFS perspective, Philadelphia will come out with as much fire as San Fransisco come Sunday, even without Fletcher Cox.
Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle will all be in play against that Eagles’ open secondary (31st in DVOA against the pass), and you can expect a ton of ownership too. I won’t talk you off stacking them with Brock Purdy either, especially at his low-$6K price tag on DraftKings. McCaffrey, do I need to tell you to use the best player in the league? Of course not, if you can afford the salary, pay up.
Can Jalen Hurts rally in back-to-back weeks by shouldering the entire offense on his back? I wouldn’t hesitate the thought, the league’s top-scoring player for fantasy at the quarterback position can handle anything you throw at him. The ball will be headed toward A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith when Hurts isn’t scrambling or handing it to D’Andre Swift. The matchup will be an uphill battle for the Eagles, but I believe Nick Siriani has had his eyes on this game on the calendar all year.
Browns @ Rams (-3.5) (O/U 40.5)
Most likely the least popular contest in the afternoon half of the slate, as the Browns’ defense continues to pump fear into DFS rosters. Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua have not been fantasy-relevant when they share the field (single-digit fantasy points in four of five weeks). The Browns will be without Denzel Ward, but it’s a dart throw to decide which Rams’ receiver will eat. Kyren Williams is the only piece of the Rams offense with some stability (86% snap share), he’s a solid pivot at running back in tournaments, so the field should sway away from this game.
Cleveland will fly 38-year-old Joe Flacco to LA without a care in the world, as this team continues to win less of who is under center. Flacco has been known to pepper his running backs with targets during his career, so Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are very enticing this weekend as punts at running back.
Cash Core
- Russell Wilson
- Zack Moss
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Courtland Sutton
- Juwan Johnson
GPP Core
- Kenny Pickett
- Jerome Ford
- Brevin Jordan
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- George Pickens
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
