Joe DiCarlo 
Once again we are back for another ten-game slate to break down for Week 11. The season is just flying by us from week to week, and our DFS plays have been as close as you can call it. We’ll have you covered as always, so sit back and enjoy my takes on this Week 11 ten-game banger.
Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.
Sunday Main Slate 11/17/24
Vikings @ Titans (+6) (O/U 39.5)
We start the afternoon with the 7-2 Vikings on the road in Tennessee to face the last-place Titans of the AFC South. Every game is important for Minnesota to keep pace with Detroit and Green Bay in their division, while the Titans are playing for sole pride as they sit with a record of 2-7. It’s a touchdown spread with a total under 40, so don’t get your hopes up, everybody.
It was a busy day last week for the Vikes’ kicker Will Reichard, but a win is a win in the NFL with five field goals under his belt. It was a quiet afternoon for Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and company last week against Jacksonville, so expect Sam Darnold to get back on track with the help of head coach Kevin O’Connell. Tennessee ranks number one in passing defense, allowing only 158 passing yards per game, so Minnesota may lean slightly run-heavy at the start of the game.
Quarterback Will Levis regained the start in Week 10 and looked a sight for sore eyes for Tennessee. He completed over 78% of his passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, adding 41 yards rushing as well. Minnesota ranks 26th in passing DVOA, so the Titans will rally behind Levis’s arm one more time. Calvin Ridley has been a staple for target volume and has not seen less than eight looks since Week 4.
Cash: Justin Jefferson
GPP: Calvin Ridley, Aaron Jones, Will Levis, Vikings DST
Packers @ Bears (+6) (O/U 41)
Green Bay returns from their bye week to travel to Soldier Field and square off against a Bears’ offense that recently fired its OC Shane Waldron. Chicago’s offensive woes continued into Week 10 against a young New England defense, scoring just three points. Interm coach Thomas Brown will do his best to fix Caleb and the Bears this week in a pivotal NFC North matchup.
Jordan Love’s groin is hopefully back to 100 percent after a week off, he’ll need every ounce of his body against the Bears’ top pass coverage that has only allowed six touchdowns this season,1st in DVOA to quarterbacks. However, Green Bay has relied heavily on its running game featuring Josh Jacobs. His workload has been tremendous, ranking 7th in the league in carries with already 762 rushing yards this season, Jacobs faces a Bears’ defense that allows well over 130 yards per game. It’s a solid option for cash, while Jayden Reed and the Packers’ receiving core get GPP nominations just for being back alongside Love.
On the Chicago side of DFS, it will be safest to take the wait-and-see approach this week on how they will perform while using the Packers’ DST. But if you feel Chicago will come out swinging after the players rallied to get their play caller fired then by all means take your shot in DFS. There should be zero ownership across the board, and the prices have fallen salary-wise for Chicago at every skill position.
Cash: Josh Jacobs
GPP: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Packers DST, DJ Moore
Ravens @ Steelers (+3) (O/U 48.5)
Baltimore returns to the Main Slate in an AFC North matchup against a newly refined offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only one game separates the teams from first place in the division, so expect a significant amount of pressure on both teams this weekend. With the second-highest total on the slate, we should see plenty of the field flock over to this game, so let’s decide on who to pick up.
The Ravens’ 32nd-ranked secondary continues to produce QB1 stats to opposing quarterbacks from week to week. Joe Burrow put up two monster games this season, and Jameis Winston went back in time to 2018 and threw for over 330 yards. Russell Wilson and all of his passing weapons get massive approval for the slate in both cash and GPP formats. Although Baltimore has the number one-ranked rushing defense, Jaylen Warren gets an exception because of his pass-catching abilities out of the flat…see Chase Brown’s game log from last Thursday.
Baltimore will get a tough matchup on paper, but nobody in the league has had an answer to the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh ranks number two overall on defense, and fourth against the run, but this is a whole new animal they will be facing on Sunday. The Ravens are the number one ranked overall offense, and they have racked up over 1,800 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns between the duo. Add Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews to the mix regardless of the matchup as the playbook is wide-open in Baltimore. All are safe for cash games and GPP while Diontae Johnson, Justice Hill, and Rashod Bateman make sneaky punt plays to stack. Johnson’s revenge game narrative is in full effect!
Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Russell Wilson
GPP: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Mike Williams, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Rashod Bateman
Rams @ Patriots (+4.5) (U/O 43.5)
LA goes back on the road after a tough loss at home to save face against the Patriots. They never reached the endzone against Miami, so expect the Rams to let out some frustration in Foxboro. The Patriots shocked the Sportsbooks last weekend in Chicago, beating the Bears 19-3. Has their defense turned the corner or were they the beneficiaries of a fired Tom Waldron playbook? This weekend will set the record straight.
Outside of last week’s lockdown of the Bears on defense, the Patriots spilled yardage to opposing offenses, an average of close to 350 per week, 130 of them to running backs. The touchdown streak is over for Kyren Williams who had a dismal performance against Miami. But that was due to game flow, expect LA to once again lean on their bell cow and tough defense on the rookie Drake Maye to get back in the win column. This will in effect open up routes for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Take on the Rams for DFS in GPPs.
The rookie Drake Maye has steadily improved from week to week and led his team to victory in Chicago, but not without the running game. Rhamondre Stevenson continues to face stacked boxes when on the field, yet he averages 4.4 YPC. Drake Maye has also eluded the pass rush, tacking on 233 yards and a touchdown for the season. If you are in on the Pats the safest plays are Maye and Stevenson for some value and consistency in your lineups. Kayshon Boutte at receiver for $3,500 in New England has seen six targets in his last three games. Austin Hooper ($2,900) at tight end may see extra snaps with Huter Henry nursing a sore foot, both are solid punts.
Cash: None
GPP: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cooper Kupp, Austin Hooper, Kayshon Boutte
Jaguars @ Lions (-13) (O/U 47)
The 8-1 Lions will look to clean up their execution after an ugly win against Houston. Jared Goff threw five picks, but he’s back home where it should be a walk in the park to a Jaguars team ready for the off-season. We may not want to go near any Jacksonville players at nearly a two-touchdown spread, especially for cash games. Let’s dive into this blowout game script, shall we?
The second-overall offense in football hosting the 29th-ranked defense in the league may get out of hand by halftime. Grab any share of Lions for DFS on the slate, as it may be a free-for-all for fantasy points at Ford Field. Even the defense gets a thumbs-up facing a Mac Jones-led football club. All are safe for cash/GPP contests, especially David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs who will be chewing up the clock in the second half if Detroit is up heavy.
Mac Jones looked good early on last week in his first start of 2024 running in a score in the first quarter, but that was it. Just 111 yards passing with two picks. He faced a harsh Minnesota defense, but Detroit’s will be no picnic either. It will be a full fade for me for Jacksonville until I see Trevor’s replacement puts it on paper.
Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST
Update: Sam LaPorta is Out
Colts @ Jets (-4) (O/U 44)
These two teams in this game are just about mathematically out of the playoff race as the Colts take on the Jets on the East Coast. Both will be playing to save face as they have been underwhelming clubs, especially the Aaron Rodgers-manipulated Jets. I don’t expect the field to hover around this matchup, so for deep tournaments, it would be a great spot for some Jets and Colts players.
Sitting at 3-7 the Jets are toast this season, and as of now, their future is in limbo. But Aaron Rodgers at age 40 continues to love the spotlight on him, especially when facing weaker opponents. Indianapolis ranks in the league’s bottom tier defending both sides of the football, and Rodgers is licking his chops. He may have lost a few steps with age, but his weapons are crisp. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Davonte Adams are all GPP shots in lineups.
Indy appears to have thrown in the towel for 2024 as they revert back to Anthony Richardson to start at quarterback. The second-year signal-caller out of Florida was benched in Week 9 because of his inability to move the chains completing only 49% of his passes and turning over the football. We love the Jets’ DST at their price on DraftKings at $2,800 and should be used heavily in cash and GPP formats. For the Colts to have a shot in this game, it will rest on the back of Jonathan Taylor. The Jets have been gashed by opposing running backs, allowing over 130 yards per game with 14 touchdowns.
Cash: Breece Hall, Jets DST
GPP: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Jonathan Taylor
Raiders @ Dolphins (-8) (O/U 44)
Vegas returns from their bye week and fly out to Miami to face off against the Dolphins. Both clubs are also on the outside looking into the playoff picture, and will most likely be playing for employment in 2025. Dolphins are big favorites, so let’s take a peek at who we can roster.
Vegas’defense has been a turnstile all year, and a cheat code for DFS players when they appear on the slate. They’ve allowed a total of 25 touchdowns, ten of them to the running back while also allowing 130 yards per game. De’Von Achane is a full go for cash and Tyreek Hill becomes a GPP play, we can’t fade the cheetah even though he has disappointed managers this season. His price has dropped to the low price of $7,300 on DraftKings and has one of his best matchups of 2024, a great spot to roll the dice on Hill.
The Raiders will roll out, and Gardner Minshew will come out of the bye to take back the quarterback position. Miami put Matt Staford and the Rams in a choke hold Monday night, keeping them out of the endzone the entire game. At only $3,000 on DraftKings, the Dolphins DST is a staple for cash and GPP tournaments against this depleted Raiders team on the road. Tight end Brock Bowers will see a ton of coverage as their only weapon on offense and will receive some consideration on the slate, as the position has been a dumpster fire for fantasy.
Cash: De’Von Achane, Miami DST
GPP: Brock Bowers, Tyreek Hill
Browns @ Saints (-1) (O/U 44.5)
Cleveland also returns from a week off and will visit New Orleans to battle the Saints in another game with little meaning other than tryouts for next season. Both clubs have seven losses in the year and one of them will have eight on Sunday Night. Although it’s a low total for the game, we have a narrow spread, which is interpreted to be a bit back and forth in the game flow. Let’s take a look.
Jameis Winston will return to The Big Easy in a Browns uniform for the first time facing his former squad. And what a matchup that will be waiting for him on the field. The Saints are in full tank mode as they are in the bottom five of teams to allow the most rushing and passing yardage in the league. A Browns’ stack of Jameis, Cedrick Tillman, and David Njoku is viable and affordable in GPPs this week, along with the newly reinstated Nick Chubb to the starting lineup at running back.
The Saints will have an uphill battle against a stingy Browns defense fresh off two weeks rest. Not to mention their starting offense is practically on IR except Alvin Kamara, who is way too pricey at $8,200 on DraftKings for me. MVS shocked the world after catching two touchdowns for 109 yards, but he is way too boom or bust even at only $4,400. The only DFS move that makes sense to me in this game is the Browns DST at $2,600, a cash game play in my opinion.
Cash: Browns DST, Cedrick Tillman
GPP: Nick Chubb, Jameis Winston, David Njoku
Seahawks @ Niners (-6.5) (O/U 49.5)
The later games kick off with an NFC West matchup as the Seahawks travel to the Bay Area to face the Niners. The division is up for grabs as all four teams are within one to two games out of first place. The 50-point total will draw the field for plenty of ownership on both sides, so saddle up while we weigh out our options for DFS.
The Niners bounced back last weekend with the return of Christian McCaffrey after missing the first ten weeks of the season, Now with one week under his belt expect them to turn up the volume on their Unicorn at running back. Seattle offers a wonderful matchup, allowing close to 140 yards per game, with 9 touchdowns scored by the position. Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle if he plays, get the green light for cash and tournaments this week.
In their first meeting, San Fransisco easily took care of business back in Week 6, scoring 36 to Seattle’s 24. DK Metcalf and JSN were watched heavily in that game but allowed running back Kenneth Walker to feast, catching eight balls out of the flat for 37 yards and a score. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant also had decent performances, back then, giving us the idea Kyle Shanahan may double down against the Seahawks by eliminating DK Meycslf and Jackson Smith Njigba. Also keep an eye on Fant’s status, if he’s out then A J Barner. Seattle players are all tournament plays this weekend..
Cash: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy
GPP: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kenneth Walker, Noah Fant,
Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5) (O/U 44)
Atlanta will look to bounce back after an upset loss on the road to a depleted Saints roster. But they’ll be at Mile High Stadium to face a Broncos team that may still be salty after a blocked field goal crushed their dreams of beating the Chiefs. Both squads have plenty to play for so expect some tenacity on both sides of the field.
Denver showed some poise at Arrowhead Stadium, thanks to their defense and rookie Bo Nix’s calm and cool decision-making with the football. Atlanta has been generous to opposing offenses for the season (20th overall) but maybe even more so this weekend with both of their starting corners Mike Hughes and De Alford already ruled out. Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton have become a very sneaky pairing on the slate and are nice for leverage in tournaments.
Atlanta plays the fourth-ranked defense on the road. The defense allows only 3.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Bijan has become the engine of the Falcons’ offense but I will never say to fade him or play him in tourneys. Patrick Surtain will shadow Drake London, so we should stay away, this might be a Kyle Pitts week. Denver is 17th in DVOA to opposing tight ends, so I’d say he’s good to go if all the pressure leans to Bijan and London.
Cash: None
GPP: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5) (U/O 46)
Welcome to the Main Event of Week 11, another Bills vs. Chiefs matchup that never gets old. Kansas City remains undefeated entering the weekend as Buffalo also stands tall in the AFC at 8-2. The total seems low this year, probably because that defense under Stevie Spags has just been suffocating. But the Bills’ high-octane third-ranked offense is nothing that the Chiefs have been exposed to yet in 2024. It will be the most popular game on the slate, so let’s dive in.
Buffalo had this game circled on their calendar all year, as Josh Allen has come up short in his last three postseason matchups with KC. But the Bills will be a little shorthanded on skill players come Sunday, as Dalton Kincaid will join Keon Coleman on the bench this week with a leg injury. Amari Cooper may also miss another week due to his wrist, so Buffalo will be rolling with replacements. Dawson Knox at $3,500 becomes a lock for cash and tournaments alongside Allen and James Cook. Khalil Shakir’s price has crept up to $6,300 on DK so I’m not sure to pay that high unless Cooper is out. Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins would be the pay-down options at receiver in that scenario as well.
It’s nothing new for the world champs on offense this week, you should know who to target for DFS. No Pacheco again, so it will be another Kareem Hunt week at running back. Patrick Mahomes under $7K is very tasty for tournaments since nobody will be interested. And finally, Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins are all good to go to wrap up the breakdown with a bow. Justin Watson and Xavier Worthy see the field 75% of the game, so they also are great punts who will float under the radar in my opinion.
Cash: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox
GPP: James Cook, Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Khalil Shakir, Justin Watson, Amari Cooper (if healthy, otherwise go Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel)
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
