Joe DiCarlo 
Then there were four. The most highly anticipated weekend in football has arrived next to the Super Bowl as the winners from each game will be headed to New Orleans. This weekend will also be the last multi-game slate of the season for DFS, so get your fill because the next ones will not be here until September. The best of the AFC and NFC collide on Sunday afternoon, so let’s get this breakdown started.
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Sunday Slate 1/26/25
Commanders @ Eagles (-5.5) (O/U 47.5)
We start in Philadelphia as one of these NFC East will decide who will represent the Conference in Super Bowl LIX as the Commanders battle the Eagles. The fairytale story continues for Washington led by rookie Jayden Daniels as they sit one win away from competing on the highest level in the NFL. But not if Nick Fangio and the Eagles’ defensive staff have anything to say about it, as he directs one of the most intense defenses in the league. You are the one to decide who comes out on top and start your lineups with guys from that team.
The day can very well belong to Washington although sitting as five-and-a-half-point underdogs on the road, as Jayden Daniels continues to be an enigma for defensive coordinators throughout the playoffs. I would not be shocked if the rookie pulled off another upset this season, as he leads his team into the endzone while not turning the ball over simultaneously. All of his teammates are fair game for lineups, including the running back position as Ekeler will see hurry-up and pass-catching third-down opportunities while Brian Robinson will get goalline touches. Tight end Zach Ertz will return to Philadelphia one more time and could be leaned on heavily by the rookie quarterback, especially if the Eagles decide to throw a spy on Daniels, Ertz may see passes over the top of the line of scrimmage. The only Commander I’m not feeling is Olamide Zaccheaus, the once-red-hot receiver was a solid option for Daniels. But after suffering a knee injury, the breakout of Dyami Brown, and the return of Jamison Crowder to the field, Zaccheaus will be off my radar.
The writing is on the wall in Philly, win at home and you’re back in the big dance for the second time in three years. The team has ridden the back of Saquon Barkley throughout the regular and post-season, so why would they look elsewhere to move the football? Barkley has rushed for over 2,000 yards on the year while adding over 300 yards in two playoff games and two touchdowns. I believe Sirianni will double down with their top free-agent pickup for one more round, as Washington has been gashed by opposing running backs all year allowing close to 140 yards rushing per game with 18 touchdowns. Saquon stacked with the Eagles’ defense will be a chalky move in DFS this week, but it will be good chalk to eat. Now if you can nail which receiver will hit when Hurts drops back to pass, that will move your lineups up the leaderboards. Their alpha AJ Brown has been very quiet this postseason, catching only three of ten targets for 24 yards, which is gross. His game logs will drive down his ownership in this matchup, so if you want an edge in GPPs, take a shot at the Eagles’ best option to throw to, and it will catapult your lineups if he does wake up from his slumber.
GPP: Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dyami Brown, Dallas Goedert, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Eagles DST
Milly-Maker Punts: Jamison Crowder, John Bates
Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) (U/O 47.5)
The nightcap will end up in Kansas City as the Bills will tackle the Chiefs for the third time in four post-season meetings and try to get over that hump to land their first Super Bowl visit in over thirty years. Buffalo owns the momentum coming into Sunday after defeating the Ravens, but Kansas City is the reigning champs. They’ve shown signs of weakness this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but somehow Pat Mahomes and the defense get the job done when the fourth quarter hits triple zero.
Buffalo has been here before in recent years, each time coming up short on the road in Kansas City. Can this be the year we finally see Josh Allen pull away from the dark clouds at Arrow Head? Many feel the Bills have a legit shot this year because of their recent success during the regular season in Kansas City and their opponents’ inability to move the football consistently.
I don’t have to hype up Allen for DFS, we already know to use him. The remaining Bills to decide are what we are here for. For the Bills to win, they’ll need to run on KC, so I love James Cook. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have also been in the mix, but are much more of a gamble in lineups as the gamescript needs to favor them heavily. All eyes will be on Allen to take off with the football, not him, so he’ll see fewer defenders.
Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s rock to lean on for passing plays, he leads the team in targets with 113 through the playoffs. Everyone else, well they’re dart throws, as by their very affordable prices under $4K on DraftKings. I’m leaning toward Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox also since the Chiefs’ DVOA is 29th for the tight end position. Love Keon Coleman again this week, he was disappointed against Baltimore, but I smell another 2022 Gabe Davis type of performance from him up the pike.
I know the Chiefs barely squeaked by the Texans in the previous round, but you can never rule out the defending champs when there is a potential to make history by winning three consecutive Super Bowls. This is the second year in a row where we’ve seen them flip a switch in the playoffs to beat their opponents, and that’s built on experience and phenomenal coaching. The field will be all over Travis Kelce in tournaments, however not many will have the cojones to pair him with a $6K Patrick Mahomes. KC failed to convert plenty of third downs last week, which affected Mahomes’ volume, as well as all the penalty flags thrown at Houston…wink, wink.
So if you feel the Bills will put up some points this week then Mahomes will have a negative gamescript and be forced to put the ball in the air. Besides Kelce as far as targets, it will be whoever gets open for Mahomes. Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown have been quiet, but they’ll be on the field the most as usual. However, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster did see 67% of the snaps against Houston, so he could also be a factor in this game.
The Chiefs’ backfield has also been dicey, but fairly priced for DFS. Kareem Hunt has been their new goalline back, so if I had to take my pick it would be him, especially after he hit paydirt last weekend. Andy Reid is a hot-hand kind of guy when it comes to carries, so if Isiah Pacheco returns to his usual form this week, he will put Kareem Hunt to bed. We’ve seen glimpses of Samaje Perine on third downs for Kansas City too, but he’s an extremely risky guy.
GPP: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, James Cook, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Keon Coleman, Isiah Pacheco
Milly-Maker Punts: Dawson Knox, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Samaje Perine, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for the Conference Championship Games! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord, tag me @DiCarlo78, for any lineup build opinions or questions. I’m always here to help! Gain access to our projection models and jump into our Discord, where our experts and I will talk about plays across every sport 24/7/365!
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