Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend
We’re down to just eight teams left and this week, we have all the games on one main slate. That’s how we’re going to treat it and the teams left present a ton of opportunities. This is a tougher slate with a lot of star power and multiple paths to go. No matter who you play, you’re going to feel like you left players off that could kill you. It’s a good slate to pull some three max entries but there is one team that is my primary focus. I may not be out on a limb in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Divisional Weekend and we’ll figure out where we’re heading!
Rams at Packers, O/U of 45.5 (Packers -6.5)
Rams
QB – Salary isn’t the easiest to fit everyone in, but I’m not convinced it’ll be worth it to save money and play Jared Goff this week. Getting him at a ceiling game to match the other studs seems unlikely. His throws last week did not look great coming off a thumb injury and even though more time will help, Goff was sub-par a lot of the year. I’d want him to hit nearly 24 DK points to make it worth sacrificing a stud and that happened just five times all season. He only had a 0.40 pDB on the season, good for just 25th in the league. One of the biggest issues was the RZ attempts, with just 56. That wasn’t even in the top 20 and even in what could be a negative game script, I don’t love this route.
RB – The entirety of the field will be on Cam Akers this week and I can’t say they’re wrong. First off, it’s just a volume play. Over the past four games, he’s recorded 101 touches which is enormous. He’s under $6,000 which is ridiculous after a 28.6 DK point game last week. On top of that, Green Bay has had issues on the ground all year. The Packers were 18th in DVOA agains the run and the Rams are sixth in attempts per game. They also gave up over 2,200 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Even if the game gets too far out of hand, Akers should stay involved enough in the passing game. Honestly, the Rams likely try to run the ball to death and control the clock for 35+ minutes.
WR – The duo of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both look like values, especially if we feel better about Goff’s thumb. Kupp really is cheap and is coming off nine targets last week. I always favor the cheaper player and this week is certainly an extension of that. Woods should see more of Jaire Alexander, even though I don’t believe it to be a true shadow situation. Alexander was top 15 in pPT, passer rating allowed and catch rate allowed on the season.
The slot rates are striking for these players though as Kupp is at 55% and Woods is at 28.6%. With the overall targets, RZ targets and EZ targets being about identical for these players, Kupp is the path of least resistance and cheaper on top of it. They’re the only two receivers I would consider from this team.
TE – You can argue that Tyler Higbee is a better play if the game goes out of whack, but I’m not really buying it. The Rams just don’t run him on a ton of routes normally and there’s some different options at the position this week. His target share is under 12% and he only has a total of nine RZ/EZ targets on the entire season. Even at $3,000 that wouldn’t cut it. We should also note that the Packers were a top three team in DK points given up to the position with just five scores on the season.
D/ST – The low price is interesting in theory. The Packers did lose their left tackle David Bakhtiari in Week 17, and that is a big loss. Perhaps if the Rams have a healthy Aaron Donald you could entertain this but you have to know just how risky it it. The Pack only allowed a 14% pressure rate, lowest in the league and just 20 sacks. LA might be the best defense in football, but this is a strength on strength matchup to be sure.
*Update* Donald is in line to play and it’s an interesting route. I’m not sure any defense is going to stand out here.
Cash – Akers, Kupp, Woods
GPP – D/ST
Packers
QB – The Packers as a team are fascinating because they have arguably the toughest matchup on the board. I would suspect the Chiefs and their stack is the most popular on the weekend and they should be. That leaves a Packers stack of Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams as super intriguing. The Rams are the fourth-best passing defense by DVOA and only the Saints have a higher mark left in the field. We all know what Rodgers is capable of with a 48:5 TD:INT ratio on the season, the highest pDB at 0.66, the fourth-most points per game and the seventh-most yards. The fact he’s under $7,000 doesn’t make a ton of sense and I’m going to be watching to see how highly rostered he’ll be this weekend.
RB – Aaron Jones has been may nemesis all season long and I don’t think that changes here. I likely don’t play much, if at all. The salary is palatable and when the games were competitive and mattered down the stretch, Jones was more towards the 70% snap rate that we need. Jones does have a 14.8% target share in the offense, which helps maintain some floor but the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. They did allow some big gains for Chris Carson last week and maybe Jones can find some of those same holes. I just don’t have a ton of lean to play him. Akers should see just as big a workload for $1,100 cheaper or you could go up to Alvin Kamara. Jones is in an odd pricing range.
WR – This is one of the most fun individual matchups of the week as Adams squares off against Jalen Ramsey. He was the fourth-best corner in pPT on the year at just 1.30 but Adams was about the best receiver in football. The easiest argument to make is to play Tyreek Hill because the matchup isn’t nearly as difficult, but to cast aside Adams is dead wrong. Ramsey is very good but the Adams/Rodgers combo is lethal. If you’re playing a three max, I would lean two of the Chiefs players and one Rodgers/Adams. It’s actually slightly cheaper for the second combo and gives you a different path. Adams has rarely been shut down to the point of not worth playing at all this year.
If you think that Adams struggles, that has ripple effects through the offense since he carries a target share over 33%. Not only would Aaron Jones get a few more receptions, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard become more involved as well. You’re really only playing these two as boom or bust options, so I would lean MVS. Lazard hasn’t looked the same after his core muscle surgery, and MVS has shown ceiling lately. He’s also shown a 0 and a -0.4, so know what you’re getting into. The snaps have been about equal and MVS plays mostly on the outside, with a slot rate under 24%.
TE – The other player who could benefit if Adams is getting slowed down is Robert Tonyan. He still confuses me. Tonyan broke out with 11 touchdowns but only has 11 RZ targets and seven EZ targets on the year, along with an 11.8% target share. It tells me that if he doesn’t score, he’s likely not going to do very much. In the games he didn’t score, Tonyan has put up a 2.7, 6.3, 1.5, 12.9, 5.2, 5.5 and a 0. The floor is there, and it’s scary this week. The Rams did allow seven scores but also gave up the ninth-fewest yards. I think I’m going elsewhere this week.
D/ST – If we can fit them, that’s fine but we always want to build the lineup first and fill in defense last. The Rams are going to have a quarterback with some kind of issues no matter who they play and Green Bay generated 41 sacks on the season with 18 turnovers. I just think we have a hard time fitting them.
Cash – None that I feel are really needed
GPP – Rodgers, Adams, Jones, Tonyan, MVS
Ravens at Bills, O/U of 49.5 (Bills -2.5)
Ravens
QB – There’s a reason we want Lamar Jackson on just about every slate, and that was on full display last week. He turned in another relatively crappy passing performance, with under 180 yards and a pick. His fantasy points came from the 136 and a touchdown on the ground, good for about 22 of his 28.8 DK points. It’s no secret that Lamar can do that every game out and he’s one of the only 3-4 quarterbacks that I would play on this slate. Buffalo did pull off a 12th ranked finish in DVOA against the pass but they weren’t giving a ton of resistance to the Colts passing game. With the rushing upside Lamar brings every game, we have to be interested. It wouldn’t be that surprising if Jackson led the weekend in rushing yards in my opinion.
RB – I really thought that once the playoffs kicked off, the Ravens would give their best running back the bulk of the work but that wasn’t the case. J.K. Dobbins only touched the ball 10 times compared to eight for Gus Edwards, and you can’t play a back in this kind of split at this salary. Not only does he have to contend with Edwards and Jackson for rushing opportunities, Dobbins isn’t utilized in the passing game at all. He had just one target last week and just 24 on the season. He would have to score multiple touchdowns and/or break a long one to pay off. There’s not a huge path for him to get more than about 12-14 touches so I’m not likely to go here. At the same time, I’m worried to fully fade him in a run-based offense against the 17th ranked DVOA against the run.
WR – This is simply Marquise Brown or bust. There’s not other receiver that I’m looking at because last week Dez Bryant, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead combined for three targets. Hollywood saw nine targets last week, which was the second-highest of the season. He’s been a little bit more involved lately with nine, eight, four and seven targets over the past four games. The matchup isn’t as bad as some may think either, as we saw rookie Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton give the Bills secondary some issues last week. We have feared Tre White in the past but that hasn’t been the case this season with a 94.5 passer rating allowed and a 64.1% catch rate. I don’t love him like I did last week, but he’s in play. I will be much heavier on this next player though.
TE – Mark Andrews was disappointing last week but this is a great bounce-back spot and I’m in. I mean, Jack Doyle lit up this defense. Let that one sink in. The tight ends have been a sore spot for Buffalo all season long. They were bottom five in about every category you can imagine all year long, including yards allowed, receptions and touchdowns. For Andrews, he missed two games and finished just 10 targets off the team lead and led in RZ and tied for the lead in EZ targets. The salary is still very affordable after a dud last week, making it easier to pull off a two tight end lineup this week.
D/ST – They’re coming off a week where they shut down Derrick Henry but I’m not sure this is the exact same spot. What’s interesting is the Ravens blitzed at the highest rate in the league this year, 45.1%. The Steelers were second and they did give Buffalo some issues for a half in their matchup. Baltimore logged 23 turnovers and 40 sacks on the season, and if the weather is nasty I can get on board.
Cash – Andrews, Lamar
GPP – Hollywood, Dobbins, D/ST
Bills
QB – I think Josh Allen is going to end up fourth in terms of priority at quarterback for me, behind Jackson, Rodgers and one still not discussed. He flashed everything that we target in a quarterback last week with 324 yards passing, two touchdowns and then added 54 yards rushing and another touchdown. We talked about it last week, but he finished top 10 in RZ passing attempts and rushing attempts at his position. The touchdown equity is among the highest it can get at this position. Baltimore finished 10th in DVOA against the pass, but Indy was higher and gave Allen little problem. Allen was fourth in pDB on the season and was 14th in completion rate under pressure. If he can figure out the blitzes, he could smash yet again.
RB – It’s a chalky piece but at the salary, it’s hard to ignore Devin Singletary. He’s got the backfield to himself with Zack Moss on the IR and out for the playoffs. They were splitting snaps and touches, but we could see Singletary get 12-14 carries and tack on another 2-4 receptions. That style of volume is too good to pass up at this price tag, regardless of the level of chalk. Salary is tight this week if you’re shooting for a big money stack. Baltimore was also top 12 in DVOA against the run, but I would expect OC Brian Daboll to get Singletary in space as much as he can to utilize Singletary’s strengths. Playing Singletary and Akers should get you 35-40 touches for barely $10,000 on DK.
WR – Stefon Diggs scored over 27 DK points and the site dropped his price. Alrighty then. Diggs continues to prove why he’s one of the best receivers in football, going for 128 yards and a touchdown last week. Diggs would likely see some of Marcus Peters and that’s advantage Diggs. Peters was solid with a 1.70 pPT but also allowed a 13.1 YPR and a 92.6 passer rating over 102 targets. Diggs is not going to have a problem here in my eyes. The weather could be the only slight issue, but even if it snows I think that gives Diggs the advantage. He knows where the route is going and the secondary is going to have a harder time reacting to it.
Cole Beasley has a strength on strength matchup against Marlon Humphrey in the slot, but Beasley is cheap as well. Humphrey only allowed a 58.9% completion rate and the 12th lowest YPR at 10.4. Beasley accounted for right about a 20% target share on the year and his 8.0 aDOT was the lowest of the corps. He’s clearly the safety valve in the offense and interesting to me even in a tough spot. I also have interest in John Brown. After burning half the field last week with a goose, folks will be hesitant to go back to the well. That alone makes it a good spot and Brown only needs one play to pay off as the deep threat in the offense. Gabriel Davis had a solid game last week but he only played about 50% of the snaps and would be highly volatile.
TE – It was a good thing for Dawson Knox that he caught a touchdown because nothing else was really there for him. Knox had been more involved in the offense lately but this was a step back. I think it’s harder to punt this week with the options we have at the top end. If most people play the high end options and they’re well into the double-digits, Knox scoring under five DK would really be a killer. Baltimore only gave up five touchdowns on the year, not exactly the spot that I’m excited for.
D/ST – I really don’t want to play Buffalo this week. Baltimore’s offense is clicking for the most part and they really have shown issues through this season. They did force 26 turnovers on the season but they also allowed almost 500 yards off offense last week, including 163 rushing yards. That’s not a good sign against the best running team in football.
Cash – Allen, Diggs, Singletary
GPP – Brown, Beasley
Browns at Chiefs, O/U of 57.5 (Chiefs -10)
Browns
QB – It doesn’t always work out, but you could argue to play Baker Mayfield if he’s going to be playing catch-up or in a shootout all game. The script of the Monday Night Baltimore game when he scored 34 DK works in theory. However, that’s all it is – theory. It’s the same train of thought that we mentioned with Knox. If Baker scores 16 or so DK and the other big name quarterbacks are around 30, you’re behind the eight ball. Baker was only 18th in pDB on the season and 25th in points per game, but the seasonal data isn’t the best. Mayfield had almost a month-long stretch where his games were sabotaged by weather. There’s upside here but there’s also significant downside with too much volatility for me. I would only have shares in 20 max this week.
RB – If this game stays close, it’s very likely Nick Chubb is having a monster game. The Chiefs finished 31st in DVOA against the run and gave up the ninth-most rushing yards in the league. It can be hard to keep the games close enough stick with the run but this is the best chance for the Browns. Cleveland was in the top five in rushing attempts and top there in rushing yards per game and you’d like to think Chubb is going to get a big workload here. He got 24 touches last week but that was in a script with a massive lead by the end of the first quarter.
If the game goes wonky for Cleveland, Kareem Hunt could be the ideal pivot (especially off Singletary chalk). Since Chubb has come back in Week 10, Hunt has 103 touches to 146 for Chubb, not quite the gap you might think. Chubb also leads in RZ carries, but just a 25-16 rate. Not only could he poach a touchdown, he profiles more as the passing down back which the Browns may need a lot of. I’m interested and not for any ridiculous “revenge” narrative.
WR – The Browns barely needed to pass since they were up about 275 points five minutes into the game, and Jarvis Landry still got eight targets. In a game script that at the very least will be more competitive, I would expect 10+ and he is super duper cheap. I think the best guess here is the Chiefs try to shade him a lot with linebackers and kick Tyrann Mathieu into the slot. He only has a 29% slot rate and L’Jarius Sneed is at 23.9%. The Chiefs don’t play just one slot corner, so they could continue to utilize different looks to try and limit Landry. I still wouldn’t shy away at this price for the volume expected.
I was on Rashard Higgins last week but the situation is different. Statistically, Bashaud Breeland has been the Chiefs best corner. He was inside the top 10 in pPT, catch rate and passer rating allowed . The small catch is he only played 11 games, but it’s still a 59 target sample size. The volume could be there more than it was last weekend but the corner matchup is far worse for the Browns outside receiver.
TE – If we’re not going to play Andrews, Hooper is my next man up at the position. He’s very affordable coming off an 11 (!) target game last week. It was also an area that KC struggled in all year. They allowed the eighth-most receptions, fifth-most yards and nine touchdowns. Since the Odell Beckham injury, Hooper is second on the team in RZ and EZ targets, not to mention the 14.8% target share. The RZ and EZ work is of significant interest, because he played two fewer games than Landry (who leads in both). It’s not hard to construct a big game for Hooper here this week.
D/ST – Congratulations on beating Pittsburgh, and it was well deserved but I will not play Cleveland’s Swiss cheese secondary against the most explosive offense in football.
Cash – Chubb, Landry, Hooper
GPP – Baker, Hunt
Chiefs
QB – Sweet sassy molassey does this Chiefs stack look awesome. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played in a couple weeks, but that is about the only concern we can come up with here. The Browns finished 25th in DVOA against the pass and were just shredded by a dysfunctional offense. You can argue that they played shell coverages all night, and that’s fine. Mahomes isn’t going to chuck four picks and the Browns are going to struggle here by all indications. Mahomes finished sixth in deep ball attempts, second in yards and fourth in touchdown passes all in just 15 games. He is my number one option on the board. I know, very risky.
RB – The jury is still out on Clyde Edwards-Helaire playing or not, but this is the leverage spot. I’m sure the Chiefs passing stack will be the most popular on the slate. What happens if CEH (or Le’Veon Bell) go nuts here instead? Even James Conner put up points and barely touched the ball. Cleveland finished just 17th in DVOA against the run and gave up about 1,800 scrimmage yards. If fading the main components of the Chiefs, you’re already tempting fate. You may as well go all in and hope CEH hangs 20-25 DK. He recently did that against the Raiders, and Mahomes “only” out up 25 DK. A significant chunk of those points came on the last drive on top of it.
*Update* We still have no real news with CEH. Hopefully something emerges Saturday before kick of the Packers game.
WR – Remember what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last week? Yeah, Tyreek Hill is going to get that same matchup on Kevin Johnson around 41% of the time in the slot. Now, I think we can all agree that the Hill/Mahomes combo is A LOT better than the Ben/JuJu combo, and Hill is in one of the biggest smash spots on the slate. The last time I felt this good about him, he went NUCLEAR for 60 DK. I don’t think that will happen, but he’s going to torch Cleveland. Not only has Johnson allowed a 107.6 passer rating and a 69.8% catch rate, he runs a 4.52 40-yard dash. Wheels. Up.
Much like CEH, Sammy Watkins is the leverage in this passing game if he plays. We need some clarity there as he hasn’t practiced since Week 16. He plays the slot a little less at 34.7% and since returning from injury has a target share under 13%. With Mahomes as the QB, it’s only going to take a play or two to pay it off and poach a Hill or Kelce touchdown. If Watkins is out, expect Demarcus Robinson to be the value receiver everyone plays. This game stack as a whole looks super appealing as it’s the highest O/U on the slate at 57.5 points.
*Update* Watkins is out, which leaves Robinson as a likely popular play. You could zig with Mecole Hardman and hope for a bomb, which is entirely possible this week.
TE – I’ll take all the Travis Kelce, thank you. Getting a two tight end lineup with Andrews is one of my favorite plays of the slate at this juncture. Kelce finished just five points behind Stefon Diggs for the WR3 in PPR settings. He’s too cheap, has a 25.6% target share and 30.4% share of the RZ carries. He’s easily the TE1 on the slate and worth every penny (and then some). We’re not spending too much time here. Reek and Kelce are in glorious spots and I have a hard time arguing the fade. If we’re going to take a stand, what better spot to do it than the KC stack and get different elsewhere?
D/ST – Much like the Packers, I have no issues here with the Chiefs. Baker has been playing well, but he’s been “on schedule” for the most part meaning that the Browns can rely on the strong run game and Baker is smart and takes shots. If this one gets out of hand, KC has the 16th ranked DVOA against the pass and could turn the ball over. They forced 22 turnovers on the season and the 11th ranked pressure rate at 24.8%.
Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill
GPP – CEH (or Bell), Watkins (or Robinson)
Buccaneers at Saints, O/U of 52 (Saints -3)
Buccaneers
QB – If the Bucs want to exorcise the demons, I very much think Tom Brady will have to lead the charge. This is no easy spot as the Saints were top three in total DVOA, against the run and against the pass. He threw the ball 40 times last week despite leading the entire way and the Saints should be able to mount more of an offense than Washington did last week. Since Week 11, Brady has only been under 40 pass attempts twice and once was when he got yanked at the half against Detroit. He still threw 27 times. Brady finished first in air yards per attempt and second in attempts on the season. The pDB is 0.53 which was 10th but at this volume he would be in play for me in 20 max.
RB – We’re not sure if Ronald Jones will play this week or not. He got hurt pre-game last week and scorched everyone with a zero, while Leonard Fournette got all the run. The Saints allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards on the season to go along with only 356 receiving yards. I don’t believe either RoJo or Fournette would be “must plays” in a vacuum but Fournette would offer PPR value to go with a Chiefs stack if RoJo is out.
*Update* Arians says that Fournette will start but if RoJo is up to speed, he’ll get his normal reps. I’m out on this mess.
WR – I don’t know what it is, but Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore do NOT care for each other. They’ve gotten into a fight on the field in past years, and the last three games when Evans has lineup up opposite of Lattimore he has six total targets and zero receptions.
Tampa likely tries to get Evans away, but he totaled just about 18 DK points combined in Saints games this year. At the prices, I think Evans is strictly GPP and nothing more.
Instead, I’ll focus on Chris Godwin who was targeted 12 times last week. He gets one of the better matchups in the NO secondary with Chauncey Grander-Johnson in the slot. I have to give it up to Gardner-Johnson overall as he was targeted 112 times and only ceded a 53.6% catch rate and a 1.30 pPT. This is all about Brady and Godwin, no to mention the salary. Lastly, Antonio Brown is a conundrum. He looks too cheap every week (and still does) but was only targeted three times last week. He scored so he went for 3x but the targets were still sketchy overall. AB could see Janoris Jenkins who allowed a 1.70 pPT but I don’t wonder if the Bucs do their best to flip AB and Evans as far as matchups.
TE – After seeing Rob Gronkowski go for zero points on just one target, I’ll admit I’m a bit rattled. Cameron Brate saw six targets last week and he has these random games that pop up. Brate would have gone for 20 DK had he not dropped a touchdown in the fourth quarter. I think the best way to look a this situation is to avoid it. Hooper is right next to Gronk in salary, and you can’t afford to take the chance that Brate repeats this. I’m staying away overall and just focusing on the receivers.
D/ST – On paper it’s not the best spot for them. The Saints only gave up a 14.6% pressure rate when Drew Brees was under center and Brees himself only had eight turnovers in 13 games. I think the difference is Brees is still not looking al the way there to my eye. Be it the rib injury that he has to still be feeling or just the age, his throws lack a whole lot of zip. A ball-hawking unit that forced 26 turnovers could force some in this game.
Cash – Godwin, AB, D/ST
GPP – Brady, Evans, RoJo or Fournette
Saints
QB – Brees dropped back and threw the ball 39 times last week and still couldn’t crack 19 DK points. Tampa has had significant issues on the defense as of late, and I really want to make a case for him. He’s cheap and the Bucs have the best run defense in football but I can’t quite get there with Brees. In fairness, he was 12th in pDB on the season but the 5.9 air yards per attempt ranked 36th in the league. I just think the risk of playing Brees doesn’t match the potential reward and would rather just give a try for Baker in this range.
RB – This is an interesting spot for Alvin Kamara. He was fine last week and touched the ball 25 times. He also faces the best run defense and weirdly wasn’t targeted that much last week. Two targets for Kamara? What in the world is that about? The Bucs gave up the most receptions to backs over the course of the season at 101 and Kamara was targeted 14 times in the course of two games this year. The real issue comes in when deciding to play Kamara or the Chiefs studs and I’m not sure I see a ton of likelihood of that happening. My path is taking cheaper backs and pairing them with Kansas City, and hoping Kamara is just average.
WR – Michael Thomas is sure to be popular since he came back onto the scene and paid off with an 18.3 DK point game. MT was targeted seven times in a winning game script, and could see it get towards 10 this week. Based on how he’s lined up in his limited action, MT would see a good bit of Jamel Dean who played well this year. He only allowed a 1.50 pPT and 9.6 YPR, but if Thomas is full go for the first time all year he’s simply not nearly expensive enough.
We need to know if Tre’Quan Smith is coming back for the game. If not, Deonte Harris would be right back in the mix, as he saw seven targets last week. Smith would really muddy the waters and we’ll update this on Friday when he have a better idea.
TE – Much like the other tight ends we talked about, I don’t want to mess with Jared Cook. I can play Hooper and Andrews is not that much more expensive. Cook is pricey for a player that busts if he doesn’t score and his target share for the year was under 13%. Even the RZ work wasn’t great at 16.9% and that was without Thomas in the lineup for most of the season. The Bucs did have some issues with tight ends but have their linebacker Devin White in line to get back in action this week.
D/ST – The Saints generated pressure just over 25% of the time and that can be an issue at times for Brady and the Bucs. It’s not something we should get too excited about, but the Saints scored 16 and 17 DK in their matchups this year. If they fit, I’m totally fine with them.
Cash – Thomas, Kamara, D/ST
GPP – Brees, Cook, secondary receiver TBD
Core Four
Chiefs stack of the main three pieces and Singletary for cash games
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