Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Championship Weekend
This is going to be the last Game by Game of the season, and we have four of the best teams in football squaring off this weekend. Really, I think the Bills were the only one we couldn’t have predicted with certainty at the start of the season. The transformation of Josh Allen and the arrival of Stefon Diggs pushed their ceiling way higher than most thought. Much like last week, this could be a tough construction from the salary perspective but let’s see how to get there in the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Championship Weekend!
Buccaneers at Packers, O/U of 51.5
Buccaneers
QB – Call me a hater if you need to but Tom Brady was quite lucky to have a solid fantasy day last week. It’s not often we see Brady complete under 60% of his passes, let alone 55%. He and Drew Brees flat out looked old through a lot of that game. Brady was saved to some extent by a rushing score but here’s the rub – Tampa’s offense was consistently set up by their defense deep in New Orleans territory. I don’t expect that to be the case again. I think Brady is deserving of being the last quarterback here in salary. I remain very unconvinced that he can have the same 30 DK ceiling that the other three can have on this slate. Despite his 10th ranked pDB on the season and the potency the weapons bring the Bucs passing game, he does rank fourth on my list this week against the 15th ranked DVOA pass defense.
RB – Now this…this is an interesting spot. Much like we attacked the Colts backfield with both backs a couple weeks ago, that same chance might be present this week. Both Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette saw 13 or more carries last week and Fournette handled the passing work with six targets. We’ve hit Green Bay with running backs all season long. Last week, Cam Akers rolled up almost 100 scrimmage yards against them. The Packers finished 18th in DVOA against the run on the season and this duo is very fairly priced.
Jones might not get a lot of passing work but he’s under $5,000 and I don’t think spending up at RB is the path this week. If both of these backs get 10+ touches again, this could be the ticket in a weak field for backs this week. The catch is game script. If you think Tampa keeps it close or wins outright, this could be a path for you. If you think the Pack roll, Fournette is the guy you’re going to want.
WR – One of the reasons I like Fournette and Jones together is the receiving corps is fairly banged up right now. Mike Evans had all of one reception last week, and it’s hard to not think his knee is bothering him. I know Marshon Lattimore has his number but still. Antonio Brown is nursing an injury as well, and has totaled just six targets in the two postseason games. Chris Godwin could be the best option on the table here. Evans likely faces mostly Jaire Alexander, who is a corner we respect. He’s only allowed a 1.40 pPT and a 53.6% catch rate. Evans on a potentially balky knee isn’t exactly a great spot to attack, even though the price is hard to totally ignore.
Godwin should mostly see Chandon Sullivan, since he played the slot 46% of the time. Over 83 targets on the season, Sullivan gave up a 1.50 pPT and a 87.4 passer rating. This sure checks the boxes of places to attack. AB would draw Kevin King, and that would be advantage AB. King allowed a 111.3 passer rating and a 67.7% catch rate. The lack of involvement lately is concerning, but could bring Brown in lower-rostered than maybe he should be.
*Update* AB is out, meaning Godwin is going to be pretty popular this slate.
TE – Similar to Brown, Rob Gronkowski has been very quiet this postseason. He’s totaled 2.4 DK points across two games, though at least he had five targets last week. Also working against Gronkowski would be the Packers season stats against the position. They finished with the third-best mark against tight ends in DK points allowed. They also only gave up five touchdowns, which is really what you need from Gronkowski. Unless Gronk gets a score close to the goal line off a play action pass, it’s hard to see him having a ton of value.
D/ST – I’m done playing defenses against the Packers. Yes, they smacked this team in Week 6 to the tune of 19 DK points but that might actually work against them. Green Bay learned from that game and won’t make the same mistakes. Even though the Bucs have 30 turnovers forced and 50 sacks through the 18 games, I’m trying to go elsewhere this slate.
Priority – Fournette, Godwin, RoJo, Evans, AB, Brady, Gronk, D/ST
Packers
QB – I know it’s playoff pricing but seeing Aaron Rodgers go down in salary after 25 DK points really is funny to see. The Rams didn’t have Aaron Donald but it was still impressive for Rodgers to post just about 300 yards and three total scores. I wouldn’t bank on the rushing score, just like we wouldn’t do that with Brady. Still, Rodgers seems like the far more dangerous option for only $400 more than Brady. The Bucs secondary was far more up and down to close the year, and Rodgers has had the Week 6 game burned into his memory.
With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, he’s going to come out with his best game. I believe he’ll check in as my number two option and is up to 50 passing touchdowns on the season through 17 games. The way the slate shakes out, I wonder if we can just play Rodgers over Mahomes. Even if Mahomes scores 30, is 25 from Rodgers that much worse? That $1,100 in salary difference is huge on a slate like this. If I can get to a Davante Adams or Stefon Diggs, I will consider running Rodgers over Mahomes pretty heavily.
RB – Aaron Jones is about the best running back left but I will not have almost any this week. Not only do the Bucs have the best run defense in football from yards given up per game and DVOA, but they might get Vita Vea back from his injury. That’s just what Tampa needs, another elite run stopper. I think Jones to get 15 touches or more, and possibly more involved in the passing game. However, both Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon had 12 and six touches last week. For me o spend up on a back and see him get 15 touches doesn’t make a lot of sense. I still don’t want to pay the “premium” which is what Jones is this week for running backs. There’s too many other options that are cheaper to prioritize Jones in this spot.
WR – Even with Jalen Ramsey on the other side last week, Davante Adams went over 21 DK and scored yet again. We have to give the Bucs credit for shutting down Michael Thomas last week but this is not the same. Bucs corner Carlton Davis doesn’t have “Slant Boy” on the other side this week and Adams is primed for a big game. I’m sure Tampa isn’t going to cover Adams with just Davis or Jamel Dean but Adams and Rodgers have figured out how to beat every type of coverages thrown at them. Adams at $8,000 is stealing no matter what style of slate we’re on. If I can fit him with the Chiefs stack, he’ll be my primary partner.
I tend to not think that Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling see eight targets each this week. That is likely the Ramsey effect and we won’t have that matchup this time around. It’s always a little difficult to peg which one of these guys to play, but I give Lazard a slight lean. He played in the slot almost 40% of the time this year compared to 23% for MVS. When you get into the slot, that brings you on Sean Murphy-Bunting, who allowed a 2.10 pPT, 122.7 passer rating and a 12.7 YPR over 115 targets. I think Adams gets back to his monster target share in this one, but Lazard still is a fine cheapie target here.
TE – Another reason to not be too hot on Rob Gronkowski is the price of Robert Tonyan. Sure, he has some of the same concerns that Gronk does because Tonyan has not always produced when he doesn’t score. He did post a 10.0 DK point performance last week with no spike, and that has been one of his best efforts with no touchdown. The Bucs did allow the seventh-most receptions to the position and nine scores, so this is actually a solid matchup. I attacked the slate last week going two tight ends, and that’s not out of the question here again.
D/ST – They’re in the same spot they were last week – a fine play, but they are too expensive. I need all the salary I can get and they just won’t fit. Additionally, I don’t think they’ll get to Brady consistently. They blitz under 25% of the time and the pressure rate hovers around 20%.
Priority – Adams, Rodgers, Tonyan, Lazard, Jones, MVS, D/ST
Bills at Chiefs, O/U of 54
Bills
QB – I wonder if Josh Allen is the forgotten man here. Mahomes will be popular, and Rodgers is cheaper. The against the grain play might just be going to Allen, since he’s coming off a very poor fantasy game. The weather seemed to hamper both passing games, especially the deep ball from Allen last week. This spot should be a little better and I would be shocked if we got the same low-scoring affair. What is really interesting is Allen has been running a lot more in the postseason. Through two games, he has 18 attempts.
If he’s averaging nine rushes per game and can find the end zone with the best of them (third-most among quarterbacks), his ceiling is as high as any player on the slate. KC sported just an average 16th DVOA against the pass, and the RZ work for Allen could stand out. If you play a three max, I may have one of each of Allen, Rodgers and Mahomes to get exposure to all three. The Bills will need the best version of him this week, and the lack of a running game could fall to him.
RB – I actually like Devin Singletary A LOT more than I did last week. Not only is the matchup a lot softer against the 31st ranked DVOA against the run defense of the Chiefs, he’s got some receiving upside this week as well. Kansas City (sort of by default) allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this year and a total of 12 touchdowns. They allowed the eighth-most DK points to backs on the season despite just 12 scores in part because the scrimmage yards were over 2,400. That’s over 150 scrimmage yards a game and Singletary is really the only game in town. Last week I thought he was poor chalk and he turned out to not be highly rostered. That’s likely because the field felt the same way. This week is the polar opposite. Load up to get the expensive pieces.
WR – I’m not sure what there is left to say about Stefon Diggs. He’s just been a monster all year and into the playoffs, with a total of 20 targets, 14 receptions, 234 yards and two touchdowns. Just like we argued with Rodgers/Mahomes, if Diggs hits 27 again and Adams hits around 32…is the $1,000 worth it? I do think Adams has the higher ceiling outcome and that’s not a slight on Diggs. It would be fun to make a Diggs/Adams/Hill lineup but that leaves off Travis Kelce and I feel confident saying I won’t leave Kelce out of my lineups this week. Diggs played about 25% in the slot but I would suspect he sees multiple corners, including Bashaud Breeland and Tyrann Mathieu. None of those names scares me and Diggs is an elite play, but fourth among Adams/Hill/Kelce in my eyes.
We’d want some exposure to the Buffalo offense past a (potentially) chalky Singletary and that has been feast or famine so far. One week, John Brown gave us the goose egg and then this past week, it was Cole Beasley. I’m going back to Brown here, as he has the explosiveness to pay off more. I also think Beasley is banged up but playing through it. Brown has seen 15 targets so far these playoffs and even though I don’t expect 11 again, he’s still going to get the softer coverage opposite of Diggs. We saw Rashard Higgins get loose on some deep balls last week and Brown is far more accomplished of a receiver.
TE – If you really don’t want to play Big Bob…..this could be the Dawson Knox game. He is as cheap as you can realistically go at the position and it’s a spot KC struggled with mightily all season. When you have an offense as loaded as they do, and money is tied up elsewhere, something suffers. Right now I think you could say it’s the linebacking corps. They got tagged for the fifth-most yards and nine scores. While Knox is not a player that is leaned on too much in the offense, the game script could force the hand of the Bills to pass and pass early. Even just 5-6 targets could pay off this price, and we could accomplish going double tight ends and still play Kelce.
D/ST – If Mahomes were to be out, we can talk. Until then, hard pass.
Priority – Singletary, Diggs, Allen, Brown, Knox
Chiefs
QB – All signs point to Mahomes being ready to rock this week and I fully expect it. There’s not a ton left to say about him, as we all know the ceiling he has every single game. He was well on his way for another 300-yard day before the concussion. The Bills surprisingly finished as a top 12 DVOA against the pass, but that is of little concern with Mahomes. He’s the number one option, but we have talked about the potential for Rodgers and Allen at the same time.
RB – We still need some clarity again here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to be limited at practice, which leads me to believe that he won’t be active again. Darrell Williams is the option in the backfield, as he racked up 17 touches to just two for Le’Veon Bell. It’s really not a discussion, and you could honestly run a massive Chiefs stack with Mahomes, Williams and both main pass catchers. The pricing of Williams allows that and the Chiefs ran ALL OVER the Bills in the first game. CEH had his best game as a pro with 169 total yards, 161 of which came on the ground. I don’t particularly expect that result again as that game was horrid weather. There’s still plenty of room to play Williams at this price against the 17th ranked DVOA against the run. I’d play Stix at 17 touches in the Chiefs offense at $4,800.
WR – It was just another day at the office for Tyreek Hill. He saw another 10 targets and three rushing attempts for a total of 11 touches. There’s not going to be many games where he won’t pay off at those touches, and he did again. I don’t see how Buffalo covers him since he plays in the slot about 40% of the time. Facing off against Taron Johnson and his 4.5 40-yard dash won’t end well for Johnson at all. Tre White is also of little concern in my eyes with a 4.47 40-yard dash and a 13.0 YPR allowed.
If Sammy Watkins is out again, we can go right back to Mecole Hardman. He only saw four targets last week but part of that was due to Mahomes missing some time. Chad Henne wasn’t about to worry about getting the ball to anyone but Hill and Kelce. Hardman has the same style of speed that Hill does and the Chiefs will take advantage of it with Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy at the helm of the offense.
TE – It’s Travis Kelce. He’s unstoppable and is a receiver masquerading as a tight end. Buffalo got absolutely shredded by tight ends all season long. Linebacker Matt Milano does help their coverage options but it honestly will not matter. Kelce had the lead in target share and RZ targets on the season in an elite offense. Need I say any more?
D/ST – I feel like they won’t be able to create the same mistakes they did last week. Buffalo has a much better offense than Cleveland does, especially the passing game. KC does have 24 turnovers through the 17 games they’ve played but just 33 sacks. With Allen being able to run, I don’t see a ton of potential for the splash plays. I may end up with them just because I love the rest of the lineup, but it’s not something I’m chasing.
Priority – Kelce, Mahomes, Hill, Williams, Hardman, D/ST
Thank you for reading my NFL Game By Game Breakdown Championship Weekend and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
