Capper Steve 
And now the moment in football we have all been waiting for has arrived, as we get ready for the pinnacle sporting event of the year in Super Bowl LVII. So heat up the wings, put the adult beverages on ice, and sit back to enjoy the most highly anticipated NFL game of the year. The two number-one seeds of each conference will meet face-to-face to finally decide who will be crowned Super Bowl champs.
MVP Patrick Mahomes will seek his second Super Bowl ring in four years, but it won’t be easy against an Eagles’ front line that led the league in sacks this season. Jalen Hurts has emerged in Philadelphia as a man on a mission, carrying the Eagles to within one game of a second franchise championship. Both have their work cut out for them in this matchup, so let’s dissect this rumble in the desert for all the glory.
DFS single-game slates are not easy, especially in larger contests. Whether you are entering one lineup or 150, to cash they need to tell a story. Decide on a solid Captain/MVP who will give you the most bang for your buck and then connect the dots in your flex spots. As always you can find me in our Discord @JDiCarlo78 with the rest of the WDS family…Let’s Gooo!!!
Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (O/U 50.5)
Chiefs
I’ve never seen a kid play with as much heart and talent as Pat Mahomes, who proved me wrong two weeks ago by beating Cincinnati on one leg. The 2022-23 NFL MVP will be in 80% of my builds along with All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who both make up the heart and soul of the KC offense. Whether playing from behind or building a hefty lead, it will all weigh on Mahomes‘ arm. Both will be chalky, especially at Captain/MVP, so taking down a larger tournament will require a pivot. If you’re favoring the Chiefs and pulling out the upset, here are some pieces and an off-the-radar Captain/MVP:
Captain/MVP (Pivot from P. Mahomes $16,500DraftKings/$17,500 FanDuel, T. Kelce $15,900 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel):
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)
He’s a little banged up with a swollen knee and featured on a milk carton in the Chiefs’ playbook since Week 15, but JuJu has cemented his role as the clear number two passing option for Mahomes. Although the matchup against Philadelphia’s solid secondary is not enticing, tight end Travis Kelce will see plenty of extra TLC from the defense, freeing up some possible one-on-one coverage for Smith–Schuster.
Flex Spots:
Jerick McKinnon ($6,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)
If the Chiefs do get behind the eight ball against Philadelphia, expect McKinnon to return to regular season form as a pass catcher in this game script. He’s disappeared from double-digit fantasy production as of Week 17, but with all the attention on Travis Kelce and the solid play in the Philly secondary of Maddox, Slay, and Bradberry, Jerick may feast in screen passes and check-downs from Mahomes.
Kadarius Toney ($4,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel)
Kansas City again will be without their starter, gadget receiver Mecole Hardman for the big game. Toney, when healthy, has filled in his shoes nicely throughout Hardman’s injuries. He’s racked up 10 and 12 fantasy points in the final two games of the regular season, following it up with another 10 in the postseason. His low price tag screams ownership with the potential of hitting value yet again in a possible shootout with the Eagles.
Harrison Butker ($4,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)
We can’t ignore the kickers fellas. Facing a Philadelphia defense that has suffocated opposing offenses during the playoffs, coach Andy Reid may not want to roll the dice on fourth down within field goal range and settle for three. Butker has been solid all season in Kansas City, scoring 13 fantasy points per game this postseason.
Punt Plays:
Justin Watson ($2,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Noah Gray ($1,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Jody Fortson ($200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)
They’re not the flashiest guys in Kansas City, but they’ll provide you with a ton of value in this contest. I know CEH is priced down to $1,000 on DraftKings, but unless you see an injury to McKinnon or Pacheco, I can’t envision him doing much in this game. Watson, Fortson, and Gray have all seen a large percentage of the snap share when healthy this season. It will only take one big play down the field or finding paydirt on a goal-line catch to pay off their minuscule salaries.
Eagles
The ultimate test awaits Philly on Sunday, can they beat a real team in the AFC juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs? Jalen Hurts and company has been subject to criticism all year on an easy schedule and a cakewalk through the playoffs, but the smack talk can all end with a Super Bowl victory. But to get there, Hurts will need to put the ball in the air if the running game stalls out, or KC jumps out to a quick lead. His injured, throwing shoulder has not been put to the test since returning to the field in Week 18, pumping some anxiety into Eagles’ fans. Nonetheless, his matchup is primo against the 31st DVOA to opposing QBs and forcing him into Captain/MVP slots as the chalkiest play for Sunday, alongside his dual-threat capabilities.
So if we are on the Eagles bandwagon, pivoting from Hurts at Captain/MVP could pay off in bigger contests, but make no mistake he still could very well be the play in the top spot. Let’s check out some other directions for Philly at Captain/MVP, as well as flex and punt play positions:
Captain/MVP (Pivot from J. Hurts – $16,800 DraftKings/$17,000 FanDuel)
AJ Brown ($13,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel)
He’s due a monster game, period. I’m not saying he doesn’t put up another dud in the biggest game of his career, but the upside for Brown is insane against the 28th in DVOA to opposing receivers in this matchup. He’ll be under the radar in contests because of his lack of fantasy output, but we’ve all seen Brown over the years explode for 30-plus fantasy points. His ceiling is through the roof and we wouldn’t want to miss out on cashing in tickets for not remembering the caliber of player that he still is.
Devonta Smith ($12,900 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel)
Much safer and more consistent than Brown, Smith is almost identical in salary but will give you a bit less anxiety at Captain/MVP. He’s averaged well over 20 fantasy points since Week 13, racking up over 100-yard receiving games in four of those contests. Smith shares the same matchup with alpha teammate AJ Brown, but with less risk and making another nice pivot at Captain/MVP.
Flex Spots:
Dallas Goedert ($6,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel)
The target share has been solid since his return from injury (averaging 6 since Week 17) and sitting in the mid-price salary range Goedert is a no-brainer to flex in your lineups. If you’re also a believer in Hurts’ shoulder injury preventing him from throwing the deep ball, you’ll be drawn to the Eagles’ tight end even more in your builds.
Kenny Gainwell ($5,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)
Of all the running backs on this slate, I’m feeling Gainwell the most in this game. While owning 40% of the snaps in the backfield, he carried the ball at least a dozen times in the postseason, scoring 9 and 22 fantasy points. Although Miles Sanders has been the Eagles’ starter all season, Gainwell’s salary will allow more flexibility in lineup builds while continuing to see the same amount of time on the field.
Jake Elliot ($4,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel)
Let me reiterate with kickers guys and gals…let’s get different. Stauled-out Philadelphia drives may end up with Elliot getting sent out on fourth downs in a possible defensive game scheme by Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnolo. Three points are better than none in a game where every play-call matters,
Boston Scott ($3,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)
The Eagles’ secret weapon manages to find the endzone almost every time he can sniff it. If he’s in your build and scores, start counting your winnings as he will separate you from the chalk. Philadelphia loves Scott in goalline situations, scoring three touchdowns in the playoffs.
Punt Plays:
Quez Watkins ($1,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel), Zach Pascal ($800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Jack Stoll ($600 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)
I love this crew of Eagles that are down the end of the DFS charts. Cheap and owning 40-50% of the snap share consistently. They all sit in a great spot to pay off huge dividends if they can make a big play or fall in the endzone, Watkins especially. For only $1,400 on DraftKings, you get the Eagles’ third big-play wide receiver against a young KC secondary, that I can see ripping off a 60-yard bomb from Hurts.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Super Bowl LVII Breakdown. I know I left a few key names out, like MVS, Miles Sanders, and Pacheco. But in reality, anybody can go off at any given moment, especially Super Bowls. I always tell everyone to go with their gut, if you feel a certain way about a player then go for it. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup-build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!
