Capper Steve 
What a season so far, one month’s worth of NFL here and gone! Injuries are piling up left and right, and Week 5 ‘s slate has not one game with a 50-point total so far. Our projection models stay sharp and help us dial in on every matchup for the best players to draft in DFS. This slate is not Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 5!
Sunday Main Slate 10/9/22
Steelers @ Bills (-14) (O/U 47)
Steelers
Kenny Pickett will get the full start against one of the top-ranked defenses in Buffalo, not the ideal landing spot for the rookie. He did provide a spark into the Steeler offense and displayed a bromance with fellow rookie George Pickens catching 6 balls for 102 yards against the Jets. But I’m fading Pittsburgh this weekend with their rookie quarterback on the road, the Bills’ D deserves the respect.
Bills
The Steelers will still be without T J Watt this weekend, so it’s safe to assume Josh Allen will have not as much pressure to work the Bills’ offense. I just can’t see using too many other Buffalo players in this game as they are 2 touchdown favorites. Let’s keep it simple here and use Allen with the Bills’ DST in this heavily lopsided matchup.
Cash: J. Allen, Bills DST
GPP: None
Falcons @ Bucs (-9) (O/U 48)
Falcons
The wheels are beginning to fall off for Falcons’ quarterback Marcus Mariota, especially after what we saw last week (7 for 19/139YDS/1 INT/1 FUM) so we won’t touch him. The big news in Atlanta is Patterson landing on IR forcing the rookie Tyler Allgeier to take over the backfield, who averaged 8 yards per carry and caught a 20-yard pass last week. Kyle Pitts Won’t make the trip to Tampa due to injury, so Drake London will be a target funnel for Mariota this Sunday.
Bucs
In a losing effort, Brady put up a monster (39-52/385 YD/3 TD) at home against Kansas City, and now that the divorce news broke with the supermodel wife, we may get a pissed-off Tom Brady chucking it all over the Falcons’ weak secondary. His arsenal is at full strength with Evans, Godwin, and Fournette making Brady a solid play. Tampa coming off that tough Sunday night loss will get their redemption in Week 5.
Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette, C. Godwin
GPP: D. London, T. Allgeier
Dolphins @ Jets (+3) (O/U 44)
Dolphins
The nine-year vet Teddy “Two Gloves” will fill in for the concussed Tagovailoa and should be able to slide right in at quarterback. He’ll have two of the fastest receivers in the NFL at his disposal and a playbook from head coach Mike McDaniel on how to use them. The experience Bridgewater brings to the field may be an upgrade to the offense, against a cushy Jets defense that has allowed over 25 points per game. Give me a Dolphin stack this Sunday in GPP, but Hill and Waddle are safe for cash games.
Jets
If you’re looking for a safe play in New York, tight-end Tyler Conklin has been the most reliable of all Jet pass catchers. Flacco leaned heavily on him in the first three games and Zach Wilson fed him 3 receptions for 54 yards. He’s always hovering below $4K on DraftKings, take advantage of his low salary before the sites catch up with his production.
Cash: T. Hill, J. Waddle
GPP: T. Bridgewater, T. Conklin
Bears @ Vikings (-7) (O/U 44)
Bears
Run Chicago…run the ball. Even if you’re down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, just feed it to Khalil Herbert. We can’t trust this offense regardless of the matchup for the Bears. Herbert was a solid play last week but David Montgomery may be back this week and opposing defenses are beginning to sniff them out, blitzing and daring Fields to throw. Until we see some improvement in the offense let’s stay away from Chicago.
Vikings
Chicago really slows down the pace of their games and Vegas lets us know with a total of 44. So we should really not look to use much salary cap here in this game whatsoever, Justin Jefferson will eat here for sure but he may not reach value because of game flow. If you do want a piece of action from Minnesota, tight-end Irv Smith is affordable ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) and should see the least amount of coverage by the Bears’ defense. The Minnesota DST also interests me because Chicago struggles to put points on the board, but they’re not cheap. If you have the cap space great, if not, don’t go out of your way.
Cash: Minnesota DST, Justin Jefferson
GPP: I. Smith
Chargers @ Browns (+3) (O/U 47.5)
Chargers
It was only Week 2 when Joe Flacco lit up this suspect Cleveland secondary with the likes of Garret Wilson and Corey Davis for (307PaYD/4 TDs) Justin Herbert is fully capable of crushing here too and on Draftkings he’s a steal at ($7,100). Mike Williams pops off but can also end up on a milk carton sometimes, so keep an eye out for Keenan Allen’s status. If he is out another game, tight end Gerald Everett has been the beneficiary.
Browns
Cleveland will continue to ride their stud Nick Chubb and pound the rock into LA’s 30th DVOA run defense. If it hasn’t broken, don’t fix it. Nobody has yet to contain Cleveland’s run-heavy offense so why wouldn’t we see more of the Chubb/Hunt show this weekend? But Cleveland will still need to throw, and tight end Njoku owns the snap-share in Cleveland (92%). Amari Cooper has also solidified himself as the alpha dog at receiver, both are mid-range in salary and viable in your lineups.
Cash: J. Herbert, M. Williams
GPP: G. Everett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper
Texans @ Jaguars (-7) (O/U 44.5)
Texans
The rookie bell cow Dameon Pierce has looked incredible these past two games rushing for 211 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jags are coming off a loss in Phila and were gashed by Miles Sanders’ (134-yard/2 touchdown) showing. Give me Pierce in this spot, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins here too. When two teams with bad defenses collide, the football moves on both sides of the field.
Jaguars
Jacksonville will need a little pick-me-up after that ass-whopping they took in Phila, Lawrence had a little deja-vu of 2021 Trevor turning the ball over. But the weather was wet and slippery, He’ll shake it off at home against Houston in a bounce-back game. Kirk his go-to guy will be in the mix and Robinson should also get plenty of work on the worst-ranked run defense in the league.
Cash: D. Pierce, B. Cooks, J. Robinson, C. Kirk
GPP: N. Collins, T. Lawrence
Lions @ Patriots (-3) (O/U 46.5)
Lions
Beware of this game guys. Jared Goff on the road, outdoors, facing a Bill Belichick defense throws up too many red flags. No word yet on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ankle and D’Andre Swift looks to be shelved until after Detroit’s bye week. Jamaal Williams and Hockenson looked awesome last week but that was Seattle at home and the Patriot defense can still show up here. Salaries are up on everybody too, so I’m going to play it safe, but if there was a Lion to use if Amon is out, pick up the Hock.
Patriots
Both Patriot running backs are in play fellas, the 31st in DVOA against the run Lions are in town and New England may be starting third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe. Harris and Stevenson should see plenty of volume in the backfield, but we can lean more toward Rhamondre for pass-catching opportunities.
Cash: D. Harris, R. Stevenson, T J Hockenson (A. St. Brown out)
GPP: None
Titans @ Commanders (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)
Titans
Derrick Henry has a heartbeat again in fantasy football. Over the last two games, he has averaged close to 5 yards per carry and a touchdown. Tennessee will continue to make him the focal point of the offense. But I’m more interested in Robert Woods for this game. Treylon Burks is out this weekend so St.-Juste will line up across from either Woods or Kyle Phillips who can easily burn him for chunks of yardage out of the slot.
Commanders
This Sunday Carson Wentz can break out of his slump when the second-worst secondary in the league comes into town. The Titans’ Kristian Fulton is A turnstile for receiver fantasy points so get McLaurin and Samuel in your lineups this weekend.
Cash: R. Woods, T. McLaurin
GPP: C. Wentz, C. Samuel, K. Phillips
Seahawks @ Saints (-5.5) (O/U 46)
Seahawks
Geno Smith and the Seahawks really came through for us last week in DFS, but we can’t go down that road again facing this tough New Orleans defense. D K Metcalf should see a ton of Lattimore and if the Seahawks will be playing catch-up, Lockett may benefit from the opposite side with some shaky Bradley Roby coverage.
Saints
So we have a couple of Interesting plays for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara says he’s going to play on Sunday, but can we trust him to produce at his high-mid-range salary? I think he’s usable and very sneaky for GPP, we have seen him score six touchdowns in one game! The safe guy here is Chris Olave. Michael Thomas just can’t stay healthy and Jarvis Landry still has an ankle issue. The rookie Olave has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four contests this season.
Update: J. Winston and M. Thomas are Out
Cash: C. Olave
GPP: A. Kamara, T. Lockett
Niners @ Panthers (+6.5) (O/U 38.5)
Niners
After what we witnessed on Monday night against the defending champs, San Fran has the defense to beat in the NFC. Sack after sack, the safety Hufonga pick-six, I’m sold. I know the Rams’ O-line is a mess, but no question the Niners are a legitimate contender. I can see the highlights now of Baker getting smashed in the mouth. Very low total here fellas, so let’s start that D if you have the space, and a stack with Jeff Wilson Jr. would not be a bad idea too.
Panthers
See above, we can’t risk any spots in our cash game/GPP lineups on this Baker-Mayfield-led trainwreck of an offense, especially against the Niners. Even though McCaffrey has been solid over the course of the season, it’s best to stay away from all the pieces of Carolina, mainly because we can’t trust Baker or the coaching staff.
Cash: Niners DST, Jeff Wilson Jr.
GPP: None
Eagles @ Cardinals (+5.5) (O/U 49)
Eagles
Jalen Hurts needs no intro these days, his numbers speak for themselves. 27 fantasy points in three of four games. He’s in a position to smash again in Arizona, who have bled value to opposing quarterbacks (Week 1, 360 PaYd/5 PaTD – P. Mahomes) in previous QB1 matchups. The Cards continue to neglect opposing tight ends (31st in DVOA), give me one of the most trustworthy ones in football this week – Dallas Goedert
Cardinals
Philly’s defense has been devastating this season (4th in DVOA to quarterbacks), which makes Murray a no-brainer to fade. Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch, and Rondale Moore are all less than 100% healthy which makes tight end Zach Ertz the most dependable target for Murray this Sunday. The icing on the cake for Ertz is the revenge game he’s got going on against the team who let him go last season after helping them win Super Bowl LII.
Cash: J. Hurts, D. Goedert
GPP: Z. Ertz
Cowboys @ Rams (-4.5) (O/U 43)
Cowboys
LA’s Jalen Ramsey is no longer a threat from what we’ve seen this season. The Rams are dead last in DVOA to opposing receivers giving us the green light to drop Lamb in our lineups. But Dallas can also get to the quarterback already logging 15 sacks in 4 games. On DraftKings, they are slightly above the minimum salary ($2,500) and a huge cap saver against a My Pillow offensive line in LA.
Rams
Kupp or Higbee for the Rams… that’s the offense. LA’s O-line deficiencies have cost them their running game. LA has been a riches-to-rags story this year and until Shawn McVey can figure out what to do it’s best we stay clear from everyone else besides Kupp and Higbee.
Cash: C. Kupp, T. Higbee, Cowboys DST
GPP: C. Lamb
Cash Core 4
J. Allen/L. Fournette/C. Kupp/D. Goedert
GPP Core 4
T. Bridgewater/J. Robinson/J. Waddle/Z. Ertz
Stacks
T. Brady/C. Godwin/M. Evans J. Hurts/D. Hurts T. Bridgewater/T. Hill/J. Waddle J. Herbert/M. Williams
J. Wilson/Niners DST
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
