NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend: Stix Picks

Happy Playoffs Week and small slate NFL DFS! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is going to be a little different than normal. I’ll simply list all of the players that I believe are “notable” players for this weekend’s slates of games and my thoughts on said players (price, ownership, etc.).

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $9,200 FD) – Allen is clearly the highest upside play on the slate with the rushing floor and red-zone rushing equity (in addition to a relatively healthy group of weapons and a fantastic matchup against Miami), but I don’t love the idea of paying a premium for Allen as a two-score, home favorite.
  
• Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK / $8,000 FD) – Like Allen, Burrow is a tad too pricey for my liking (on FanDuel) in the lowest total game of the weekend. The AETY Model and Vegas player props do like to think Burrow is one of the more efficient quarterbacks on this slate with 280 passing yards and 2 touchdowns baked into the projections. If you’re playing NFL DFS cash games, he’s a fine play, but I’ll likely look elsewhere in GPP lineups as I really find it hard to believe Baltimore will push this pace with no Lamar Jackson.
  
• Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – Highest total game on the slate with a tight-spread… this should be an elite spot for Justin Herbert in a back and forth game against the Jaguars. I don’t love the fact that Mike Williams is out for this game (way to go, Staley… absolute moron playing your starters in a meaningless road game last week), but I do love the guaranteed volume of Herbert. Outside of Tom Brady, no one has the floor (in terms of pass attempts) that Herbert has this weekend.
  
• Dak Prescott ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – Not super interested in Dak Prescott, but he will be the second lowest owned quarterback (not counting Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley) on the full-weekend slate. The Cowboys’ offense is healthy and you can get rather different in GPP builds if you start your full slate builds with Prescott.
  
• Daniel Jones ($5,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Stupid pricing on DraftKings and the high ownership will reflect that. There’s really nothing bad to say about Daniel Jones going up against the Vikings and their 26th ranked pass defense (DVOA). The rushing floor is up there with Josh Allen and we know Jones will be confident as he destroyed this Vikings’ secondary when they played just a few weeks ago. Likely my go-to quarterback despite the ownership on the full-slate.
  
• Geno Smith ($5,600 DK / $6,900 FD) – On the Saturday only slate, I’ll be rostering Geno Smith (pray for me). I don’t love the spot for him, but I am not impressed with the secondary and pass defense overall of the San Francisco 49ers. Geno offers a lot of salary relief and gets me a unique build for this Saturday only slate that I’m very excited about. All we need from Geno Smith is 18+ fantasy points and we should have no issues getting that as he went for a modest 15 points in their last matchup with only one rush attempt. If we get some more rushing out of Geno, he’ll be a fantastic value play in Saturday-only, GPP lineups.
  
  *Keep an eye on the weather and be ready to pivot if it doesn’t clear up.

The Leftovers: Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Tom Brady, Brock Purdy

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DK / $9,800 FD) – Lock button for me on all slates this weekend. Double-digit home favorite against a Seattle defense that grades 25th in run defense DVOA and 30th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs.
  
• Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – I’m mainly interested in Ekeler on the Saturday only slate as it looks like the field is just going to choose one of McCaffrey or Ekeler (McCaffrey will be higher owned of the two). Literally there was a whole segment on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio this week on which one you choose for NFL DFS this weekend, lol. The whole public thinks you have to choose one…
  
  I’m going to be different by playing them both (through some others in this article, it is possible). Ekeler has the highest implied odds of a touchdown for the weekend and gets a solid bump up in the passing work (which is already top-tier) according to the AETY Model. That is mainly because of the uptick in target share Ekeler received when Mike Williams missed multiple games this season and also due to the Jaguars’ tendency to play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense. Those coverages are where Ekeler gets the majority of his passing work.
  
  Whether or not you can stomach the salary it takes to roster both CMC and Ekeler on Saturday is up to you… I will be doing so. For the record, I’m not saying it’s an optimal move, but as you know, I like to play different.
  
• Saquon Barkley ($7,900 DK / $8,800 FD) – Great price for a true, three-down back who doesn’t leave the field. On the full slate, Barkley will get the nod over Ekeler for me as my preferred RB2.
  
• Joe Mixon ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Likely only in play for me on the Sunday only slate but this is an excellent spot for Mixon as a two-score favorite at home. The passing game work has really skyrocketed the baseline projections for Mixon in the AETY Model and Baltimore gives up a healthy workload to running backs in the passing game. My only concern is the random Samaje Perine carries and potential goal-line vulture.
  
• Dalvin Cook ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Honestly, I have no interest in Dalvin Cook. I’ve come to the conclusion this inside-zone running scheme just isn’t a great fit for him. I’ve never gotten him right this season and won’t try to do so on a slate that is loaded with quality running backs.
  
• Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – Great price. Great matchup.
  
• Kenneth Walker III ($6,100 DK / $6,600 FD) – Incredible price for a guy that is going to get 18+ touches. Only downside here is the strength of this 49ers’ defense is their ability to stop the run. Overall, the most important thing for me when rostering a running back is the expected workload and Walker checks that box.
  
• Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Without Mostert, he’s the only game in town and should be on the field for all three downs, which makes him rather gamescript proof. Personally, I want nothing to do with this Miami offense, but the savings and the high-floor in touches is worth noting.

The Leftovers: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Justin Jefferson ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)
• Ja’Maar Chase ($8,000 DK / $8,700 FD)
• CeeDee Lamb ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD) – Likely a week where I just cannot get to CeeDee Lamb. Stefon Diggs is cheaper on DraftKings and Ja’Maar Chase is only $100 more.
  
• Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Despite the blowout potential, Diggs should absolutely feast in this matchup and has a great price-tag. He’s not a priority play for me as I don’t love the game environment Skylar Thompson is likely to bring, but he’s definitely worth rostering if you need the value for a WR1 or if you’re stacking the Bills.
  
• Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – Lock button for me on all DraftKings NFL DFS slates this weekend. Jacksonville is a bit of a pass-funnel defense and Keenan Allen trails only Justin Jefferson for the most targets in the NFL since Week 12 (and not counting Week 18). The volume is too great to ignore on a full PPR NFL DFS outlet like DraftKings.
  
• Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) & Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – I will likely be fading this game for the most part, but I do love the matchup for Mike Evans on the outside of this Dallas secondary. Chris Godwin is always in play due to the PPR volume, but I’d heavily lean towards Mike Evans on Monday night.
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – I’m always a Metcalf first kind of guy, but this week I think you take whatever your build calls for. On FanDuel, I’m definitely prioritizing Metcalf at the cheaper price-tag, and on DraftKings (I still prefer Metcalf), the savings for Tyler Lockett is note-worthy.
  
  For Metcalf, we will likely see a shadow by Charvarius Ward (they simply have to as Deommodore Lenoir is way too small and cannot keep up with Metcalf) but that does not worry me a whole lot, especially if Vegas is right on this gamescript (49ers getting ahead early and forcing Seattle to throw a lot). Lockett certainly has a better matchup on the inside of this 49ers’ secondary.
  
• Christian Kirk ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – I have no interest in Kirk on Fanduel at that price, but on DraftKings, he’s going to be one of the highest owned wide receivers (especially on the Saturday only slate) and gets a nice coverage-scheme bump as the Chargers will blitz a lot and play a ton of Cover-1. I will likely be fading him on the Saturday only slate (due to paying up for Ekeler and McCaffrey together) but that definitely scares me.
  
• Zay Jones ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD) – On the other hand is also in a decent spot but the Chargers’ secondary is nothing to take lightly. Zay is cheap enough for the volume to warrant a roster spot.

The Leftovers: Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Palmer, Gabe Davis, Darius Slayton

The Value Wide Receivers

• Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my main pairing with Daniel Jones on the full weekend NFL DFS slate.
  
• Richie James Jr. ($3,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – another solid value pairing on DraftKings for Daniel Jones. He’s also fine as a one-off “cheap volume” play.
  
• DeAndre Carter ($3,600 DK / $5,700 FD) – In terms of the Saturday only slate, the popular cheap plays at the wide receiver position will be Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Jauan Jennings. When digging a bit deeper into this slate, DeAndre Carter became a “punt” play I cannot ignore. When Mike Williams was out (Weeks 8-13), DeAndre Carter ran the 12th most routes in the NFL! That is ahead of guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, etc. There’s nothing sexy about DeAndre Carter, but if the field is more inclined to play Jauan Jennings and Marvin Jones, I’ll take Carter who is going to run more routes on a team that passes it more than anyone on the Saturday NFL DFS slate.
  
• Khalil Shakir ($3,000 DK / $4,700 FD) – McKenzie is likely OUT.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• George Kittle ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – Clear top-dog on this slate at the tight-end position. The Seahawks get absolutely torched by opposing tight-ends (they do get Ryan Neal back this week, which helps), grading 27th in pass defense DVOA against the tight-end. Pair that and Brock Purdy’s love for George Kittle and you likely have the TE1 on every slate this weekend.
  
• Mark Andrews ($5,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Likely not getting to Andrews at all this weekend but the ownership is going to be low and he’s going to get 8+ targets as they play catchup to the Bengals. He’s in an excellent spot for GPP builds if you cannot afford Kittle.
  
• T.J. Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – Priority play for me on the Sunday only slate. Hockenson gets so many damn targets and the Giants grade 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends. I doubt we get the monster performance we got out of Hockenson in this previous matchup, but the floor is beautiful.
  
• Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $6,200 FD) – I always adore Dalton Schultz and I love playing heavily-involved tight-ends against the Bucs. Schultz is the WR2 on Dallas but gets the tight-end eligibility in NFL DFS.
  
• Cade Otton ($2,800 DK / $4,700 FD) – If you need a pure punt play on the full weekend slate, Cade Otton would be my recommendation. The volume and the matchup against Dallas are not sexy, but the price is low enough to where we roster him in hopes of a 4 reception and 40 yard type of game. Anything else is just icing on the cake.
  
• Colby Parkinson ($2,500 DK ONLY) – It’s gross, but if you need $300 more in savings or prefer to take the route of Ekeler and CMC together on the Saturday only slate, Parkinson is somewhat in-play. Noah Fant is their pure route running tight-end and likely the better play, but with the significant discount Parkinson offers, I’m okay if you roll the dice with Parkinson. For whatever it’s worth, Parkinson has out-snapped and ran three more routes than Fant has over the past two weeks (which were must-win games for Seattle). The 49ers will run almost exclusively run zone (Cover-2, Cover-4, and Cover-3) and that’s when Geno targets these tight-ends a bit more than the baseline.

The Leftovers: Evan Engram, Daniel Bellinger, Gerald Everett, Noah Fant

The Fab Five (DK Saturday Only GPP)

• Austin Ekeler
• Christian McCaffrey
• Keenan Allen
• DeAndre Carter
• Colby Parkinson