Jared Contestabile 
Raise your hand if you’re excited for some Thursday Night Football? Nobody? Well, the best part of DFS is that we can find a way to win, despite a game that might be tough to watch. The only undefeated team (Philadelphia) in the NFL faces off against the 1-5-1 Houston Texans here. The spread is sitting around 14 points here, with a total of 45.5 points. There is little reason to believe that this one will be close, but let’s find ourselves a way to make this a profitable Thursday!
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Captain/MVP Plays
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($17,700 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)
Hurts has quickly moved from “work in progress” to legitimate MVP candidate. The Texans actually allow the 3rd-least fantasy points to opposing QB. Hurts also isn’t comparable to the likes of Malik Willis, Trevor Lawrence, Matt Ryan, or the ghost of Russell Wilson. The Texans have used a favorable schedule to boost their numbers, but Hurts will be just fine here.
If it weren’t for Josh Allen, Hurts would be widely considered the best fantasy QB in the universe. He is averaging 26 DraftKings points per game. Even more impressive about those numbers is that he has THREE games with zero passing touchdowns…and his lowest fantasy output is 16.9 points. He is elite and matchup-proof. Don’t overthink this one. Hurts may be an absolute necessity on this showdown slate. As Mac and Dennis would say: “Go Birds”.
Dameon Pierce, Texans ($12,900 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)
If the Eagles have had an Achilles heel this season, it has been their run defense. They currently rank 21st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB, serving up more than 25 points per game. Pierce is among the top candidates for rookie of the year, and for good reason. His last five games have seen him total 14.1, 15.7, 20.3, 28.9, and 18.1 DraftKings points.
He may be the only Texans player you can rely on from week to week, and his volume is elite. He has had at least 18 touches in five straight games. Game-script is unlikely to be an issue for me here. I expect Pierce to be the focal point of the offense all night. He has averaged five targets per game over the last month. Pierce will have plenty of opportunities to stack up fantasy points on Thursday Night.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($12,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)
After a full afternoon of “Mossing” the entire Pittsburgh Steeler defense, AJ Brown will undoubtedly carry high ownership on TNF. Enter DeVonta as a pivot. He comes in at a good discount in both salary and ownership here, and could provide a solid edge in tournaments.
He’s no slouch either, as he has seen 7+ targets in four of seven games this season. His game outputs have been very inconsistent, with a low of 0 and a high of 33.9. He still has a solid rapport with Jalen Hurts, and his upside is massive. The Texans have been solid defensively across the board, but the Eagles offense has been unstoppable. Grab some shares of Smith for this one.
FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays
Davis Mills, Texans ($9,000 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)
Neck-st up (I couldn’t resist) we have a QB that may have only one fan in the world aside from myself. Mills has looked serviceable at times, but just completely disastrous at others. Two of his last three games have been particularly bad, with DK totals of 9.88 and 5.8. Look, I know the matchup is terrible here. If this was a full slate, I wouldn’t even have Mills in my player pool.
The Texans are two-touchdown dogs in this one. They will likely be behind the 8-ball quickly. Mills has been a volume QB as well, and has fared a bit better at home. I still don’t expect this game to be very close, but I’d be absolutely stunned if Mills doesn’t throw 35+ times in this one.
Miles Sanders, Eagles ($10,400 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)
Sanders is expensive here, but if the Eagles do what Vegas expects them to, you can bet he will have a hand in it. He isn’t a priority play for me, because he still only averages 60% of the offensive snaps this season. Both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott see some snaps, and Trey Sermon has even been active in a few games. Sanders has still scored 11.8 DraftKings points or more in five of seven contests. You gotta consider him here.
Brandin Cooks, Texans ($7,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)
There are a few ways to go with Cooks here. He posted a very cryptic tweet after the trade deadline, making his thoughts very clear about not being traded. Is he going to be motivated to play hard and add to his next contract? Is he going to mail it in and throw a temper tantrum? I’ll side with the former here. Cooks still has elite upside, and although he is dealing with a wrist injury, he is still the very clear #1 WR on this roster. He could break the slate if he has a ceiling game.
Other Options
Philip Dorsett II played on 83% of the offensive snaps last game…he is dirt cheap for this one and has seen eight targets over the last two weeks. He hasn’t done much with them (3-51), but the opportunity will likely be there in this one.
Based on the point spread, the volume necessary for for Mills and the Texans will also lead me somewhere else. It’s officially DEFENSE THURSDAY again! The Eagles have 10 INT already this season, and haven’t allowed more than 17 points since Week 1. The Eagles undoubtedly have a big ceiling here.
Ka’imi Fairbarn has been solid this season, converting 13 of 15 FG, including three from 50+. He and Jake Elliott are both in play here. However, if the Eagles continue to only score touchdowns, Elliott may have a lot lower floor.
With Nico Collins OUT for this one, Chris Moore is worth a look. He has a literal floor of zero, but did find the end zone two weeks ago against the Raiders.
I’m certainly not telling you to fade AJ Brown here…you are going to want and likely need some exposure. The Smith play in the bonus spot is just a swerve I like here. Boston Scott has thirteen carries over the last two weeks…he may get a few extra looks if this one gets out of hand.
I don’t like his price much, but if this one is a blowout, Rex Burkhead could see a few extra targets. He isn’t a priority play either, but in MME you’ll need to give him a look.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
