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NFL DFS Week 9: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

Back by popular demand is the combination article for Week 9 NFL DFS. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NEW: below is a summary of the top matchups based on offensive DVOA vs their opponents defensive DVOA (from footballoutsiders.com):

Best Matchups based on DVOA

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks:

  • Josh Allen ($8,500 DK / $9,300 FD) – The clear QB1 on this slate by a mile. Take the best option in your cash game lineups and feel free to do so in your NFL DFS GPP builds as well, but I do have concerns for the ceiling here as the Bills are a large double-digit favorite against a horrific Jets offense.
  • Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Not a big fan of Geno Smith at his FanDuel price-tag, but he’s incredibly affordable on DraftKings in a fantastic matchup against the Arizona Cardinals defense we stack against on a weekly basis (27th in pass defense DVOA). Outside of Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen, there isn’t an easier quarterback to stack up.

GPP Favorites:

  • Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price on both NFL DFS outlets for the only true “lock” for 40+ pass attempts. The Rams’ defense is more of a pass funnel and the Bucs have what looks to be a healthy wide receiving core going into this matchup. The volume certainly makes Brady a valuable option at an affordable price-tag. Based on ownership, Brady is looking like a sub-5% play…
  • Trevor Lawrence ($5,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Unfortunately, Jacksonville hasn’t been playing at the fast pace we saw early on this season, but the passing volume should be there in this matchup with a higher total (48 points) against a pathetic Las Vegas Raiders’ secondary (30th in pass defense DVOA). Lawrence struggles against defenses that bring pressure and the Raiders simply do not do that… so this is one of the few matchups I’ll roster Lawrence with (semi) confidence. Lawrence is very stackable and you know the valuable run-backs if you want to bring it back with some Raiders’ exposure (Adams, Jacobs, or Hollins).
  • Kyler Murray ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD) – Same situation as last week. Kyler Murray is the only quarterback on the slate with something close to the upside of Josh Allen. This game in the dome against Seattle grades out as the highest expected pace according to the AETY Model and truly warrants the expensive price-tag for Murray. He’s probably my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterback on what looks like a rather unappealing slate and he’s fine to roster in cash with the high-floor he possesses.

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs:

  • Austin Ekeler ($8,800 DK / $9,400 FD) – With Keenan Allen (questionable) and Mike Williams (OUT), Austin Ekeler is the number one pass catcher and the number one ball carrier for the Los Angeles Chargers. Summary: he is their whole offense until further notice.
  • Aaron Jones ($7,400 DK / $7,800 FD) – Criminally low price-tag on FanDuel and I’ll be playing a few more lineups over there than usual solely for the discount. A.J. Dillon took on what looked to be a nasty knee injury and although he somewhat stayed in the game, I am quite skeptical we see much of him on Sunday. This is a dream matchup for the Packers’ top-ten rushing attack against the Lions’ putrid run defense. Aaron Jones is a likely core play for me in all formats.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,600 FD) – Holy usage, Mr. Etienne! Etienne is way too cheap and is the only game in town for the Jaguars’ backfield going up against the Raiders’ struggling defense (19th in overall defense DVOA, and 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs). This is a free-square type of play on DraftKings.
  • Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Very steep price-tag on FanDuel, but extremely affordable on DraftKings. The Arizona Cardinals’ run defense has been improving throughout the season but they still allow a fantasy friendly, 4.5 yards per carry. This is a fantastic game environment to get exposure to, and Walker will hold significant touchdown equity in this matchup.
  • D’Onta Foreman ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – No Hubbard again this week.
  • Deon Jackson ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD) – It sounds like Jonathan Taylor is going to miss this game after re-injuring his ankle in Week 8. Take the free square in Deon Jackson now that Nyheim Hines was traded to Buffalo.

GPP Favorites:

*NOTE: I love everyone in the Cash section for GPPs as well!

  • Josh Jacobs ($7,300 DK / $8,800 FD) – not as great of a matchup as Aaron Jones, but the AETY Model does expect a lot of scoring in the LV/JAX matchup. Jacobs has been on fire this season and we’ll likely get some lower ownership as he was a letdown for NFL DFS players last week. This isn’t a fantastic matchup on paper and I don’t love the uptick in passing-down usage for Ameer Abdullah, so we’re better off using Jacobs in a GPP game-stack lineup.
  • Raheem Mostert ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Yes, Mostert was a massive letdown last week at Detroit in a fantastic matchup, but he was still rather effective with his touches as he averaged over 4.6 yards per carry. The Dolphins decided to get cute on the 1-yard line and give the touchdown to Jake Ingold instead of feeding Mostert. All in all, it should have been a respectable fantasy output for Mostert. This week, the AETY Model expects the Dolphins to handle whatever is left of the Bears’ defense and offer Mostert a lot of fantasy upside at low-ownership.

    Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to make an immediate impact, but with only a few days of practice under his belt before making is Dolphins’ season debut, I’ll roll the dice in NFL DFS GPP lineups that this is still Mostert’s job to lose.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Eno Benjamin

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

It’s clear that I’m likely to pay up (for the most part) at running back this week, so it’s unlikely I get a lot of exposure to the top tier wide receivers like Cooper Kupp (keep an eye on the ankle injury), Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, or DeAndre Hopkins. I’ll certainly try to get one of them in my NFL DFS cash game lineup (as you certainly can do), but regardless, I’d rank them as follows:

  1. Justin Jefferson
  2. Stefon Diggs
  3. DeAndre Hopkins
  4. Tyreek Hill
  5. Davante Adams
  • Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a top wide receiver at a discount price in what should be a very pass-heavy game environment for the Tampa Bay Bucs. Don’t worry about any rumors of a Jalen Ramsey shadow. The AETY Model also loves Chris Godwin in this spot as well.
  • DK Metcalf ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,100 DK / $7,600 FD) – Again, I want exposure to this afternoon game with the highest total on the slate and as always, the matchup against Marco Wilson. Metcalf and Lockett are both in an absolute smash spot this week in the dome, assuming Byron Murphy doesn’t solely shadow DK Metcalf. I’d lean to whoever is cheaper on your NFL DFS site of choice.
  • Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,200 FD) – The Vikings’ defense is a pass funnel and thank the lord for Taylor Heinicke for resurrecting the fantasy value of Terry McLaurin. This is our weekly pick on Cam Dantzler matchup and the price on DraftKings could not be better.
  • Christian Kirk ($5,500 DK / $6,300 FD) – Way too cheap for a clear WR1. The production hasn’t been nearly as sexy for Kirk as it was in the beginning of the season, but the volume and matchup is there this week. This is going to be a competitive back-and-forth game.
  • Rondale Moore ($5,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – I hate that I even have to mention his name, lol, but Rondale Moore is starting to become a real weapon in the Arizona Cardinals’ offense and surprisingly moved back inside last week (pushing DeAndre Hopkins outside). I always love DeAndre Hopkins, but for the discount, going down to Rondale Moore against Seattle slot-corner, Coby Bryant is very intriguing for NFL DFS lineups.
  • Josh Palmer ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD) Similar to Deon Jackson, Josh Palmer is the only game in town for this Chargers’ receiving core against a HORRIFIC Atlanta secondary. If you’re not paying up for Ekeler, pay-down for Josh Palmer in your NFL DFS cash games.

Honorable Mention (and the punt-plays): Tee Higgins, DJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Drake London, Mack Hollins, Terrace Marshall Jr. (way too cheap and cash viable)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends (Cash and GPP)

  • Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – Outside of Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett is one of the few proven options on this Chargers’ offense while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out. The total on this game is still high and both of these defenses are severely banged up. Everett’s target share and red-zone share is respectable enough to warrant the mid-tier price.
  • Tyler Higbee ($3,700 DK ONLY) – Tight-ends against the Bucs has been a gold mine this year and it won’t stop this week as Matthew Stafford abuses Kupp and Higbee against heavy blitzing, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses (what Tampa will run).
  • Hayden Hurst ($3,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – I’m not a big Hayden Hurst guy, but the price is fantastic on DraftKings and the matchup is a favorable one for the Bengals’ tight-end. Carolina has been getting carved up by opposing tight-ends (hell, they brought Kyle Pitts back to life last week) by sticking to their heavy blitz, Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defenses. Hurst should be in line for an above the baseline target share in Week 9.
  • Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Since Week 5, Evan Engram is tied for the lead in NFL tight-end targets! I don’t understand the DraftKings price whatsoever and will likely be rolling out Engram as a core-play, regardless of ownership. In that timeframe, Engram is 4th overall in tight-end routes ran and the thing I like about him the most is his versatility to line up all over the formation (only around 30% of the snaps in-line). Let’s ride!

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Brock Wright or James Mitchell (pure punt plays)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Tampa Bay Bucs
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Washington Commanders
  • Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (Cash Games)

  • Josh Allen
  • Travis Etienne Jr.
  • Deon Jackson
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Josh Palmer

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

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