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Welcome back to the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after and absolute SMASH Week 8 for the Win Daily Crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 9, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Cash Game Chalk-Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (40%), Josh Allen (25%), Austin Ekeler (45%), Ezekiel Elliott (45%) Myles Gaskin (35%), Nick Chubb (25%), Amari Cooper (30%), Tee Higgins (40%), Jaylen Waddle (35%), Jarvis Landry (35%), Dan Arnold (25%), Darren Waller (20%)
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
Like last week, Allen is arguably the safest choice on the quarterback board despite another week of blowout potential traveling to Jacksonville to face the league’s worst defense… 32nd in overall DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Even with a sub-par passing game last week, Allen smashed his value projection with his ability to run the football and find the end-zone. He’s expensive and there are a lot of other good plays on this slate, but Allen is still the cream of the crop for safety in NFL DFS Cash Games.
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)
Lamar Jackson is the top NFL DFS Cash Game play on the board this week in terms of overall value and the extremely high floor. The Vikings’ defense is a bit banged up and have really struggled against run-heavy teams of late. With a current total of 50-points, look for a lot of back and forth and plenty of red-zone opportunities for Jackson to light up the fantasy scoreboards.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)
Elliott is the number one running back on the AETY Model this week in terms of overall value and when he’s priced at $7K, that is notable. I’m locking in Elliott to my cash game lineup and will be expecting a high-floor and potential two touchdown game against a Denver defense graded 27th in run defense DVOA in addition to trading away Von Miller.
Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)
As long as Ekeler is healthy, the usage is through the roof. I don’t love this matchup as much as I do for the Chargers’ pass catchers, but Ekeler is arguably the leading wide receiver candidate of late, leading the team in targets over the past two games. With a game total at 50 points and projected for a very high pace (in terms of total snaps), Ekeler is in a fine spot to get to 2.5x value on that high salary.
Myles Gaskin ($5,800 DK / $6,100 FD)
As much as it pains me to write-up Gaskin in a cash article, here he is coming into the week with a projected ownership over 30% (likely closer to 50% in cash games). Gaskin is only averaging around 50% of the rush attempts in this Miami offense, but he’s certainly very active in the passing game. Having said that Gaskins’ receiving upside tends show in games where the Dolphins are trailing off the jump.
I do think Houston will keep this game close so that worries me a bit for Gaskin’s true upside, but at this ownership, it’s likely safer to eat the savings Gaskin offers and move on with your build. If Gaskin is not your cup of tea, let’s go right back to Eli Mitchell for the salary relief running back.
Devontae Booker ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD)
As long as Saquon Barkley is out, Devontae Booker’s price in comparison to total opportunity share and usage doesn’t add up. The Raiders/Giants game is projected to be very high in pace and a back-and-forth game with little to no defense leaving Booker as a borderline gamescript proof running back who is locked in for 18+ touches.
Honorable Mention: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD)
With Aaron Rodgers out this week, Davante Adams obviously took a slight hit on the AETY Model which leads into Tyreek Hill jumping up the model ranks in terms of leading the slate in expected target-share for Week 9. The pace in this game is also due to take a solid hit with no Rodgers, but Tyreek Hill is still the clear wide receiver one on this slate in terms of safety an upside.
Deebo Samuel ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Deebo has a target share of over 35% since Week 5, it’s utterly ridiculous and I don’t see that changing while Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. The top of the cash game wide receiver board is Tyreek Hill or Deebo Samuel. You cannot go wrong with either.
Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
If I am not using Ekeler, Keenan Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup. The middle of this Philadelphia secondary is something I always want target in DFS and will continue to do so this week in an up-paced game and a great bounce-back spot for this Chargers’ passing attack. Avonte Maddox will have his hands full with Allen all day long on Sunday.
Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)
The price on DraftKings is laughable for Amari Cooper. With CeeDee Lamb banged up with a sprained ankle and the likely return of Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper is totally in play for cash games against a declining Denver secondary.
Tee Higgins ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD)
Simply way too cheap on DraftKings. Don’t look now but Higgins is quietly leading the Bengals in targets over the past three weeks and continues to have a prominent role in the red-zone. Ja’Maar Chase is still the top dog here and will be for the foreseeable future, but take the savings on Higgins and run.
Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)
With Odell Beckham Jr. in limbo, Jarvis Landry is the only game in town on this Cleveland receiving depth chart. He’s never going to be a sexy play, but the volume will be there for Landry with an affordable price-tag and a plus matchup against Mike Hilton.
Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Hunter Renfrow
NFL DFS Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
It’s still Travis Kelce and a plus matchup against a Green Bay defense ranked 25th against the tight-end. Look for the Chiefs to have a huge bounce-back game offensively here. With the low ownership, I will probably fade in cash and use as a priority in some GPP lineups.
Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
Way too cheap on DraftKings for a zone-killing, slot receiver with a tight-end positional tag. With DeVante Parker OUT, Gesicki’s target share is going to have a floor of 20%. The bookmakers love Gesicki even more than the AETY Model does this week with props sitting around five catches for 60 yards.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
He’s not Travis Kelce, but the AETY Model projects his target share to be extremely similar than the top tight end in football. Granted, the Philadelphia offense is nowhere near as pass-happy as Kansas City, but Goedert should be priced up around $5,500 on DraftKings. Excellent value here with Goedert and a quality matchup against the Chargers who grade 29th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.
Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD)
Dallas is dead last against opposing tight-ends (32nd in DVOA). With Noah Fant out, take the freesquare in Albert “O” like we did last week with Dan Arnold.
Honorable Mention: Darren Waller
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Buffalo Bills
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers (if Kyler is OUT)
Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
