brgrewe@gmail.com 
Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (20%), Darrell Henderson Jr (40%), Kenneth Gainwell (25%), James Robinson (20%), Chris Godwin (25%), Brandin Cooks (20%), Cooper Kupp (20%), Calvin Ridley (20%), Dallas Goedert (30%)
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
On a slate with no Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, the top-tier starts and ends with Josh Allen (honorable mention, Justin Herbert). The Buffalo Bills rank third on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, 10th in passing offense efficiency, and first on the slate in implied team totals. Miami’s secondary has struggled this season and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA… there’s simply no safer play at the quarterback position than Josh Allen.
Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
On DraftKings, if you need the savings, pivot down to the Week 8 NFL DFS chalk quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The Detroit defense is dreadful, grading 27th in overall defense DVOA and with no Miles Sanders, we should see a bit more rushing than we usually do from Jalen Hurts (he rushes a lot as is). It doesn’t matter what Hurts does with his arm, this dude always finds a way to ~25 fantasy points and that should continue this week in what should be a back and forth game with Detroit.
Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)
Swift is an absolute stud and truthfully, I was a bit down on him heading into season-long drafts this summer. Boy, was I wrong. His usage is through the roof and trails T.J. Hockenson by one total target for the team lead in the passing game. The thing I like about Swift the most is the slight increase in usage on the ground. What started as a (give or take) 55/45 split in favor of Jamaal Williams has now turned in favor of D’Andre Swift. Detroit knows they have to give this kid the ball early and often if they want to win a football game. Look for Swift to do damage in this higher-total game against Philadelphia and their 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
Henderson was a bit of a let-down last week as the stone-chalk running back on the slate but, despite a negative early gamescript, he still had 18 total touches. Henderson is in a prime bounce-back spot here against Houston and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA) as a 15-point favorite.
Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)
Way too cheap for a lead running back in one of the more efficient running schemes in the NFL. I’ll likely be pressing the lock-button on Mitchell in all forms of NFL DFS in Week 8 as the 49ers visit a Bears team without Khalil Mack and possibly Akiem Hicks.
Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD)
Personally, I don’t see my build allowing me to fit Cooper Kupp and that scares the hell out of me. What more do we need to see out of Kupp before we just lock him in each week? I’d like to believe he’ll come crashing down to earth, especially at the $9K price-point, but I totally understand if your first move is to lock-in Kupp and then start building.
Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD)
With Antonio Brown doubtful for this game, let’s give another look at Chris Godwin who will be the main target in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL. This is a tougher matchup, but an expected 29% target share with no Brown in the lineup and a matchup on the inside against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a great spot to invest.
DeVonta Smith ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD)
It’s clear that DeVonta Smith is by far the number one target in the Eagles’ passing attack. We’re getting a number one wideout at mid-tier, WR2 pricing in a cake matchup. This game is going to be a favorite for DFS players this weekend and that should start with DeVonta Smith or D’Andre Swift.
A.J. Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,600 FD)
Over the past three games, A.J. Brown has surpassed a 30% target share… volume is king in NFL DFS cash games and there’s not many on this slate who have the volume and big play ability A.J. Brown has on a weekly basis. Julio Jones is OUT and Derrick Henry is likely to still get his 20 touches, but the Colts grade first in run defense DVOA. Brown is in an excellent spot to continue his hot streak against a weak Indianapolis secondary.
Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins
Tight Ends
The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.
Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)
Values: Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) / T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) / Jared Cook ($3,400 DK ONLY)
Punt: Dan Arnold ($2,800 DK ONLY)
Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Cincinatti Bengals
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Football Team
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
