Adam Zibuda Week 4 was another intriguing one across the NFL, as we had a variety of storylines, with the headliner being TB12 and his return to Foxboro. That game certainly did not disappoint, and neither did my QBs and stacks, so let’s try to keep the train rolling this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. Similar to most DFS players, I have yet to roster Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD), but if there is a week to target him then this is absolutely that week. Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings offense will be facing off against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 31st in total defense DVOA, which is pretty similar to what their expectation was coming into the season. It is no secret that this team is bottom of the barrel on both sides of the football, and we should look to get exposure to whatever offense is facing them each week. They also clock in at 29th in DvP against the QB position. Outside of week 4, Cousins has had three games with great production, especially at this current price tag. In the first three weeks of the season, Cousins exceeded 300 passing yards twice and the one time that he did not, he had 35 rushing yards and three passing TDs. Kirk has 9 TDs against only one interception so far this season, and has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks from a points scored perspective. I am hoping that the snoozer of a game against the Browns keeps the masses off of him for week 5 of the NFL, as he is one of the best tournament plays out there.
B. Another team that struggles to limit the damage against opposing quarterbacks is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) draws the best possible matchup for a quarterback, as the Jaguars have a bottom tier defense any way that you slice it. Ranking 30th in total DVOA, 32nd against the pass, and 29th in adjusted sack rate, the Titans should be able to bounce back after a shockingly pathetic loss to the New York Jets. In week 5 of the NFL, Tennessee should have star receiver A.J. Brown back, but Julio Jones is questionable as has been the case for every single game the last few years. Tannehill should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a weak defensive unit that should not take much time to dismantle. I would prefer to pay the extra $100 on DK and get up to Cousins, as he has three games of 20+ fantasy points compared to just one for the Titans passer, however if the Cousins ownership comes in higher than expected then this is a great choice at the same price range.
C. A team that is more under the radar this Sunday due to a lower team total than quite a few other options is the New Orleans Saints, who start a very boom or bust quarterback in Jameis Winston ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD). Despite facing a Washington Football team that ranks 28th in total DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass, and DEAD LAST (32nd) in DvP against the quarterback position. According to the numbers, this is the best matchup for an opposing quarterback, and yet I expect Winston to carry nearly no ownership. This price on DraftKings is honestly unbelievable, but that is what happens when someone puts together three awful games in a row. I expect that we see week 1 Jameis come out to play in this spot, and with an 8/2 TD/interception ratio, he has not been as careless with the ball as in years past. This is definitely a risky play given the form, but at this price and ownership in this matchup, I think that having an overweight approach to Winston is a must.
The Stacks
A. This Vikings team has two clear top dogs at the WR position along with a clear top dog at the RB position. However, it is not all obvious and easy here, as Dalvin Cook has been nursing an ankle injury and even though he played last week, he only saw 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in an affair where his team could only muster seven points. I will be avoiding this rushing attack due to the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s workload, but I would not blame you for taking some shots on him in lower-stakes tournaments. As far as week 5 targets go, Jefferson only has two more catches than Thielen on the season, yet he is $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings and will be much chalkier as well. If choosing one of these guys for tournaments, it absolutely needs to be Thielen, but I am of course fine with targeting both of these pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, after rostering Swift last week and watching the disaster that is the Lions offense in the red zone, I will be staying far away from any players on this team, including Swift and Hockenson, on any slate that is not a showdown this season.
B. As I mentioned above, we will need to take a wait and see approach with this team for week 5 of the NFL since Julio Jones is listed as questionable. This will likely be the case this entire season unless Julio is ruled out for an extended period or takes a trip to the IR. Regardless of the status of Julio, we do know that A.J. Brown is our top option for any Tennessee stacks, and with the number of passes that Derrick Henry has been catching so far this season I am more than fine adding him to these stacks as well. If Julio suits up then of course he is another good addition to our teams, but if he is out then I will keep my Titans exposure to just the two aforementioned players. As we saw in week 4, even with Brown and Jones out of the lineup, the rest of the receiving options on this team are painful. The tricky thing about targeting teams that have awful defenses is that they often have awful offenses as well. That is the case for most of my stacks, however with D.J. Chark suffering an injury last week, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault both enter the conversation as possible bring-back options. I would limit my teams to just one of these two as opposed to both, since this Jaguars squad just does not have any real upside.
C. To wrap things up, we have my bold call of the week as I look to stack up the New Orleans Saints in their matchup against the Washington Football Team. With only a 22-23 point team total on the week and three poor performances in a row from Winston, I would be shocked if this team was even in the top five in terms of popularity for week 5. That is music to any NFL tournament player’s ears, and as long as Taysom Hill does not continue his vulture spree, we could be looking at a big payday in this matchup. The tricky thing here is choosing a pass catcher to stack with Winston outside of Kamara. This is a rare scenario where we actually have a much more reliable option for our bring-back than we do for our main stack. Terry McLaurin is the clear top dog for WFT, and with the Logan Thomas injury we also can target Ricky Seals-Jones since he played 100% of the snaps after Thomas went down. As far as the Saints, we can look to Marquez Callaway if we must, but I am also fine sticking to just Winston and Kamara for Sunday.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
