Jared Contestabile 
This Thursday Night we have a matchup of two teams who are off to sluggish offensive starts. The Colts are averaging the least PPG in the entire league this season (14.3) and the Broncos aren’t far behind at 30th (16.5). Denver is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total sitting around 42 points. Last week, the Broncos lost Javonte Williams to a season-ending ACL tear. There will be added opportunities for other members of this offense. Let’s see if either offense can finally get things going.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
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Captain/MVP Plays
UPDATE: With Jonathan Taylor officially OUT, Nyheim Hines becomes an elite play in all formats. Matt Ryan gets a slight bump in upside with some perceived additional responsibility. Free Deon Jackson! He is still a low-floor play, but I’m looking forward to locking him into some lineups here. That said, the player you need to just LOCK on DraftKings is Philip Lindsay. He was just elevated from the practice squad, and costs $600 on DraftKings. Yes, $600. He should see a few opportunities at least, and is now a free square.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($16,500 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)
The top option in this one for your MVP spot is the reigning NFL rushing leader from 2021. Taylor blew everyone away last season (he beat runner-up Nick Chubb by 552 yards!), and he may just do the same here.
Josh Jacobs just got finishing going beast-mode on this Denver defense. With Denver on only four days rest following that beating, Taylor could be in for a monster performance. The only issue? Taylor has yet to practice this week and may be a true game-time decision. If the Colts feel comfortable enough for him to play on a short week, you need to prioritize him in your lineups.
Denver allowed nearly 200 total yards (168 rushing, 30 receiving) to the Raiders on Sunday. Taylor may not be putting up big numbers thus far in 2022, but his volume is second to none. He has at least 21 touches in each game aside from the shutout loss to the Jaguars. If Taylor is unable to go, I will immediately turn my attention to…
Nyheim Hines, Colts ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
Hines has never been a high-volume guy, and is known more as a pass-catcher. But he may just be the lock of the century if Taylor sits. Denver allowed nearly 200 total yards (168 rushing, 30 receiving) to the Raiders RBs on Sunday. He only has eight carries on the season, but has been targeted 19 times. He could play an Austin Ekeler-type role in this one as the lead back. I wouldn’t expect him to see Taylor-esque volume, but someone is going to run all over this defense. Next man up.
Melvin Gordon III, Broncos ($13,200 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)
The unfortunate injury to Javonte Williams jumps Gordon into the feature back role in Denver. Offensive coordinator Justin Outten said it himself. The Colts have been very solid defensively, but are middle of the pack against the run (22 fantasy points per game). Gordon saw just three carries and one target last week, and fumbled for the fourth time on the season.
While Gordon may be assumed to be the lead in this backfield, Mike Boone ($6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) saw 36% of the snaps against the Raiders. Call me crazy here, but I actually prefer Boone here. I don’t truly believe that Hackett and the Broncos have full trust in Gordon. Mike Boone has one game in his career with more than 13 carries. He went for 17/148/1.
Of course, that was one game, it was in 2019 AND Boone has hardly seen the field since. He has 78 career carries and has never lost a fumble. Gordon has put the ball on the turf four times in just 45 touches this season. I believe his leash will be shorter than many people think here, and Boone could pace the backfield.
FLEX/AnyFlex Plays
Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($9,400 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)
One of the games, Sutton is going to put all his opportunities and routes run together and break out. He has been one of the most consistent performers at the WR position this season, posting DraftKings totals of 11.2, 22.7, 17.7, and 16.2. He has run a route on over 90% of his snaps, has seen 35 targets, and has produced 16 first downs.
Despite the fact that the Broncos seem allergic to the Red Zone, Sutton has paced the team with six targets inside the 20. With Javonte Williams out, I do expect the Broncos to pass at a higher rate than their season average of just under 58%. Sutton is the lead man for Russell Wilson, and has a high ceiling in this one.
Russell Wilson, Broncos ($10,400 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)
Have you ever seen the movie “Weird Science”? A couple of nerds built their version of the perfect woman using a computer. Well, if those same nerds decided to make the least-likable QB ever to play the game, they would make Russell Wilson. While Wilson may be annoying and cringy in everything he does, he can still play at an elite level.
Denver’s offense has been a disaster this season, scoring 16, 16, 11, and 23 points. Wilson hasn’t been at his best, but did find the end zone three times last week. As I mentioned above, I expect Denver to be more aggressive in the pass game Thursday Night. Wilson could be a difference-maker in this one, but his price is prohibitive. I’ll help you find some value.
Alec Pierce, Colts ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Of course Michael Pittman ($10,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel) is a great play, but I’m not going to just list all the priciest plays on the slate. Pierce has only played in three games this season, but has had a snap count of at least 44% in all three.
He has 7/141 on 11 targets over the last two weeks. Matt Ryan has been looking his way, and his price is hard to pass up. This game could have playoff implications down the line, and both teams know they need this one.
Others to consider
Brandon McManus ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) is always a solid option, especially at home. The Broncos have had a TON of trouble finishing drives. If that trend continues, McManus could be a busy man.
This is ONLY a play if Taylor sits out, but Deon Jackson ($1,600 DraftKings) could have value in a plus matchup for dirt cheap.
A cheap play with a low floor but decent upside is Jelani Woods ($2,200 DraftKings). He scored twice in Week 3, then followed that up with 4.3 points in Week 4 (one target, one catch). The targets haven’t been there, but he is being active. He ran 11 routes each of the last two weeks after running just 10 total in Weeks 1-2.
For a few dart throws, give a look to KJ Hamler ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel).
If I choose to go with a defense in my lineups, it has to be the Broncos. I know I was trashing them earlier, but Matt Ryan also has five interceptions already this season. Not a priority play, but one worth a look.
Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
