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A little bit of a mixed bag last week, but still plenty of green screens in the Discord for cash. I personally lost most of my cash games due to the Javonte Williams injury. I stand by the play in Javonte and my model’s expected output for him, but it certainly may have been “too cute” in cash, as I could have just ate the Jamaal Williams chalk and went double Lion (Hockenson). Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but there was just no way I’d go against my roots and play a double Lion stack in cash (especially when their whole team was injured). Nonetheless, we’re on to Week 5 NFL DFS cash games.
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Again, plenty of value at the running back position
- Very thin QB pool on the main slate yet again in Week 5. Don’t miss on QB!
- Injury and weather concerns look clean this week. We should be good to go!
NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks
Per the theme of my 2022 NFL DFS cash game lineups, I’ll be focused on the top tier Quarterbacks yet again. I will not go below the $6K range on DK at Quarterback this week and will be locked in on one of the following:
Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
You know what you’re getting with Josh Allen on a weekly basis. The floor is arguably higher than anyone on the slate every single week. My only concern this week is the legit blowout potential this game has to offer as the Bills are a two-touchdown favorite at home against rookie, Kenny Pickett. We likely will not see a full on Josh Allen fantasy output like we’re used to, but the floor is high enough to lock in 2.5x value at a minimum.
Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)
What do we even need to say about Jalen Hurts? He’s averaging over 27 NFL DFS points per game and is locked in this week with a cake matchup against a struggling Arizona defense (28th in pass defense DVOA). I do have a hard time seeing how Arizona keeps it close, but the pace in this game should be an up-tempo, back-and-forth gamescript that keeps Jalen Hurts’ foot on the gas for all four quarters.
Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Insanely cheap on DraftKings and likely to be over 40% owned in NFL DFS cash games on that site. On FanDuel, Brady is still certainly in play. Most sportsbook are projecting Brady for over 2 passing touchdowns and the AETY Model Agrees. Atlanta’s defense as a whole has been a problem all season long and this matchup at home for Brady just screams the narrative of a Brady blowup game. Take the value on Brady if you’re not into paying up for the dual-threat Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts’s of the world.
NFL DFS Running Backs
Leonard Fournette ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)
Fournette has certainly been struggling on the ground over the past two weeks but the RB1 role is still solely his to lose as he’s logged 78% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts since Week 2. Like Brady, this is a fantastic matchup for Fournette against the Falcons’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). The Bucs currently have a team total over 28 points and getting the lead running back with significant red-zone equity is something I’ll be locking in.
Jamaal Williams ($6,500 DK / $8,300 FD)
I’ll likely not get up to Jamaal Williams this week (especially on FanDuel at that price), but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings against the Patriots 31st ranked run defense in terms of DVOA. I do have concerns that Jamaal Williams is extremely touchdown dependent as he only logged 50% of the snaps last week, but the matchup and red-zone usage is enough to warrant going back to him in NFL DFS cash games.
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)
Damn-near the freesquare cash game play at the running back position this week. The Panthers defense has been solid this year (especially against the run) but at this price, I’ll take the value for a 3-down running back who’s averaging over 17 touches per game since Eli Mitchell went on the IR.
Damien Harris ($5,600 DK / $7,200 FD) AND/OR Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD)
Yes, I’m okay if you happen to be bold enough to start both of the Patriots’ running backs this week. The Patriots will have Bailey Zappe under center again this week, so you know their game plan will be to lean on that #1 rushing offense (DVOA) against Detroit’s dead last rushing defense (32nd in DVOA). Over the past two weeks, Harris has averaged 16 touches per game, while Stevenson has average 17 touches per game. Despite the timeshare, these guys are getting modern day RB1 volume at ridiculously low price-tags for your NFL DFS lineups.
Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Allgeier (only if you really need the savings)
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD) / Justin Jefferson ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD)
Pick your poison at the top of the wide receiver board if you can afford one of them.
Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)
Christian Kirk is quietly 10th in the NFL in target share. Everyone else on that list (outside of Diontae Johnson) is priced well above $7K on DraftKings. I’ll take the clear discount as this is a beautiful matchup for Kirk and this Jags’ offense as a whole, going up against the Texans’ defense that grades 27th in total defense DVOA. Kirk will see a lot of soft coverage from Desmond King and the rest of this Houston defense as they mainly run Cover-2 and Cover-3 zones. Advantage, Christian Kirk.
Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Assuming Godwin’s health is good to go, this is clear mis-price as Godwin got the benefit of the late game on Sunday in Week 4 (after the pricing algorithms run). As discussed, this is prime blow-up spot for Brady and this Bucs’ offense as a whole. Throughout his career, Godwin has averaged the following against the Falcons:
- 7.1 targets per game
- 5.4 receptions per game
- 85 receiving yards per game
- 1 receiving touchdown per game
Keep in mind, most of those games were without Tom Brady under center. Godwin should absolutely smash his price-tag in Week 5 against the Falcons. If you have to go double-Buccaneer in cash this week, I’m okay with it as they have such a high team-total.
Chris Olave ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)
Another clear pricing error as Olave will again lead the Saints’ wideouts in targets, air-yards, and red-zone targets at-home against the Seahawks 32nd ranked pass defense. All of these Seattle corners are stepping stones to another strong NFL DFS outing for the rookie standout.
Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)
On the other side of Olave, I’m extremely interested in getting the highest targeted wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks in Tyler Lockett. I’d love to play DK Metcalf, but I’ll take the savings on Lockett and avoid the likely Marshon Lattimore shadow that Metcalf will see. Lockett should have a field day against Bradley Roby and the struggling second year corner, Paulson Adebo.
Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Rondale Moore
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate, I will not be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end position and based off of early ownership projections, the field won’t be paying up either. Here are some quick notes for my tight-end player pool:
- Zach Ertz – nothing sexy, but a consistent target share which is more than we can say about most tight-ends on this NFL DFS slate. Philadelphia is a tough matchup for opposing tight-ends but the AETY Model projects Philadelphia to score at will, which should lead to a busy day in the middle for Zach Ertz.
- Dallas Goedert – one of the most consistent and high-upside tight-ends on the slate going up against the 29th ranked defense at covering tight-ends (DVOA).
- Tyler Higbee – Higbee is going to be the chalk tight-end on the slate. If you’re just trying to roll with the ownership, Higbee is your guy, but I certainly have my concerns. Higbee has been crushing against teams that blitz a lot and teams that play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. The Cowboys will play a lot of man coverage and a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Cooper Kupp and potentially even Allen Robinson). I’m not sold this is a Higbee week in any way, shape, or form.
- OJ Howard – If you need salary savings, look no further than OJ Howard. On paper, it’s gross but Brevin Jordan is likely OUT again, Jordan Akins has been going back and forth to the practice squad, and Pharaoh Brown is now on the Cleveland Browns. Howard logged 75% of the snaps last week for Houston and already has shown some of his red-zone upside this season.
He’s also 11th in the NFL for tight-end air yards (ahead of Tyler Higbee, David Njkoku, Irv Smith, etc.). The Jaguars defense will mainly run a Cover-3 zone and mix in a lot of blitz which should encourage Davis Mills to use those shorter ADOT route runners, like OJ Howard. At $2,600 on DraftKings, I’m in for the punt-play.
Honorable Mention: David Njoku
Defense / Special Teams
Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup (there are a lot in play this week pending your lineup construction):
- Buffalo Bills
- Tampa Bay Bucs
- San Francisco 49ers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Miami Dolphins
- Washington Commanders
- Dallas Cowboys
NFL DFS: The Fab Five
Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.
- Jalen Hurts
- Leonard Fournette
- Christian Kirk
- Chris Olave
- OJ Howard
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.
