Jared Contestabile 
For those of you who know me, you know I’m a Cincinnati Kid. I’ve grown up and lived in Ohio my whole life (minus a 2-year hiatus in California). Needless to say, my hometown team isn’t off to a very good start at 1-2. Miami comes into PayCor Stadium as a 4-point underdog on Thursday Night. This is going to be another fun one. Both teams are coming off of wins, with Miami holding off Buffalo in dramatic fashion to remain undefeated. Of course I want my Bengals to win, but ultimately my goal is to make money for you and for me on TNF. Let’s get right to it.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
Captain/MVP Plays
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($14,400 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)
Burrow is the highest-priced player on FanDuel, but is just the 4th-most expensive on DraftKings. Either way, he is a solid option across the board. Despite a disastrous first game against Pittsburgh (FIVE turnovers), Burrow has been a solid fantasy option.
The Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL through three weeks, allowing nearly 26 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. The Bengals are in near must-win territory, even in Week 4, and Burrow will be slinging it. He has 53, 36, and 36 pass attempts the first three weeks, and the Bengals will need all they can get from him in this one.
The running game for Cincinnati (more on that later) has been poor to say the least. I expect Burrow to approach 40 pass attempts again in this one, and has enormous upside. The Bengals still have the best receiving core in the NFL, and Miami is one of the only teams who are close.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins ($15,300 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)
Waddle is my preferred option over Tyreek Hill in this one. I always talk about taking a stand on showdown slates, and this is it for me on Thursday Night. Jaylen has been a target machine for Tua, and leads the team with 30 on the young season. Granted, 19 of those were in one game, but Waddle is the play here for me for several reasons.
The Bengals have elite safety play up top, and rarely give up big, chunk plays down the field. Waddle is a fantastic route runner, and will see plenty of looks in the short-medium passing game. This one has all the makings of a shootout, and Waddle will undoubtedly be a big part of that.
If you’re playing MME, of course you want exposure to Tyreek (although Eli Apple is his daddy). I’m more of a 1-3 lineup guy, and I’m leaning toward a fade in my lineups barring some late-breaking injury news.
JaMarr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($16,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)
JaMarr has the opposite salary situation as Burrow this week, as he comes in as the most expensive on DraftKings, but just the 4th-most expensive salary on FanDuel. Only Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson have had more red zone targets than Chase (8). Even better? He has the highest snap percentage among all WR in 2022 at 95%. JaMarr WILL be on the field on nearly every play. His ceiling is easily the highest among all WR/RB/TE on this slate.
If you have watched Chase play at all over the last season plus, you don’t need to hear more. He is an elite athlete, has years of rapport with Burrow dating back to LSU, and is one of the fastest players in the game. He would be the craziest fade on this slate for me.
FLEX/AnyFLEX Options
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows me, but Tee is my dude. The guy has the strength and athleticism to be an elite player at the position, and he continues to show it. Last week, that toe tap was a thing of beauty (it was a TD, by the way), and his timing on catch point is second to none.
He has 11/164/1 in his last two games, and that isn’t including missing some time last week after taking a dirty shot to the head courtesy of Lamarcus Joyner. Tee is elite, and if this one becomes a shootout, you will need shares. He could certainly be used in the Captain spot, especially on DraftKings, where the salary opens up quite a bit due to his cheap tag.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Mostert is one of my favorite plays on this showdown slate. I am a huge proponent of process over results, and this is the perfect time to take advantage. Last week, Chase Edmonds rushed six times for 21 yards…and two touchdowns. Mostert still outsnapped Edmonds for the second straight week, and positive regression is coming.
DJ Reader may just be the best run-stopper in the NFL, and the Bengals just announced his lengthy absence. I believe Mostert is a significantly better runner than Edmonds, and this Bengals defense is suddenly vulnerable against the run. Mostert is significantly cheaper than Edmonds on both sites, and I’ll be taking full advantage. Tua Tagovailoa may not be 100% for this one, and there is an outside shot that he sits completely. Miami will look to establish the run and take advantage of Reader’s absence.
Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
Envision with me a scenario where the Bengals struggle to finish drives, the Miami defense plays well, and “Money Mac” takes full advantage. This is certainly a possible outcome here, but regardless of game flow, McPherson has legit 60+ range. He absolutely needs to be in most of your lineups for TNF. I may just click the “LOCK” button on Evan.
Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
This is a low-floor option, as Gesicki has seen 1,4, and 1 target over the first three games of 2022. However, the Bengals have given up the 4th-most yardage to opposing TE in 2022.
Samaje Perine ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Perine is clearly the backup to Joe Mixon, but on a short week, I’m expecting the Bengals to utilize Perine a bit more here. He saw a lot of late work against the Jets, Mixon is less than 100%, and has eight targets already this season. I hate his price tag, but his ownership should be very low.
I’m certainly not fading Tua here, but am also waiting for some news on his injury status. As mentioned above, he is less than 100%, and there is an outside shot he could sit. Teddy Bridgewater absolutely needs to be considered if things don’t go well for Tua and he draws the start.
You know who has scored in two straight games? River Cracraft. He has a literal floor of zero, but the TD potential is there, and he is just $2,400 on DraftKings. One last punt play for you here is Chris Evans ($1,000 DraftKings). I mentioned that I think the Bengals try to ease a workload on Mixon (who is a fade for me here), and Evans could see some work. He absolutely SHOULD, so let’s see if Zac Taylor does the right thing.
Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
