adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
NFL Week 4 DFS is almost complete. Let’s take a look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s Week 4 DFS action. I have compiled 12 major observations from the games played on Sunday. Above all, we also will look ahead to Week 5. Prices discussed are for DraftKings.
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The Dome Is Patrick Mahomes’ Kryptonite
The stage was set for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to blow up against a Detroit Lions defense that was missing their top cornerback in Darius Slay. However, Mahomes failed to throw or rush for a touchdown for the first time. Yet, he still scored 21.7 DraftKings points which just shows the type of floor he possesses in both GPPs and cash games. Mahomes saw 22.5% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP. You will have to go without Patrick Mahomes in Week 5, though, because the Chiefs are playing on Sunday night.
Chris Godwin Unstoppable
Chris Godwin is producing more than Mike Evans despite seeing fewer targets through four weeks of the season. Whether it is due to the fact that Evans sees more coverage every single week or not, the top Buccaneers receiver has scored the following: 14.3, 29.1, 48.1, and 44.2. If you can identify which one is likely to have the big game, their ceiling is sky-high. In Week 5, the Buccaneers are playing the Saints. Evans is priced at $7,100 and Godwin is at $6,900. Historically, Evans has played better versus the Saints and will most likely face Marshon Lattimore. It’s worth noting as well that Godwin was owned in less than 0.4% of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH despite just being at $6,00 salary.
Full-On Nick Chubb
There were not many people high on Nick Chubb in Week 4 DFS. In the WEEK 4 DFS GPP NFL $300K FAIR CATCH contest Chubb was owned in just 2.3% of lineups. His price was not absurd at $6,400, but the buzz around the Browns was low and the matchup was perceived to be tough on the road versus Baltimore. This tended to not be the case, and goes back to the idea that in GPPs you want to target running backs that are game flow independent in matchups that do not look great on paper. Sometimes the amount of volume and opportunities will come through as the determining factor. Also, consider that the Ravens gave up a lot of points to the running back position in Week 3; more players should have been on Chubb. Chubb scored 42.3 fantasy points in Week 4.
Lamar Jackson Still Underrated
It seems like Lamar Jackson still is not played enough. In the Week 4 DFS NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP contest, Jackson had just 2.1% ownership. He had 5.6% ownership in the WEEK 4 DFS GPP NFL $300K FAIR CATCH. This tells me that players are still not viewing Jackson as a trustworthy quarterback or are scared off his high price tag. After two down weeks, Jackson is likely to be under-owned in Week 5 as the highest priced quarterback on the main slate at $7,100. Keep in mind that Jackson is going to be facing a weak Steelers’ defense in Week 5. Jackson has also yet to score less than 21 fantasy points this season.
Russell Wilson Was A Huge Bust
Everybody was on Wilson in Week 4 DFS. And of course, he busted. He scored just 14.3 fantasy points because he attempted just a total of 28 passes. Those were similar to the total passing attempts he had in just the fourth quarter from LAST WEEK. That is why is it is crucial that context is put behind these performances. For the Seahawks to unleash Wilson he needs to be put in a negative game script or the Seahawks will just run. Wilson was highly owned in the Week 4 DFS NFL $300K FAIR CATCH contest at 20.7%. He was even higher owned in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP at 29.7%. In the end, he was a trap play in Week 4 with the Seahawks as favorites on the road against the Cardinals. The Seahawks take on the Rams in Week 5 on Thursday night.
Denver Broncos Late Game Swap
Are you using the late-game swap for DFS? If you are not aware of it go read one of my past articles titled DFS DraftKings: Fantasy Football Winning Tips. It can give you a huge edge in DFS. Here is why: In the late games, it was announced that Jalen Ramsey was going to be inactive. Despite this, Emmanuel Sanders was at just 2.6% ownership and Courtland Sutton at just 1.1% ownership even though both were under 5K. They both went under-owned because people were not sure about Ramsey and thus avoided them altogether. Take advantage of these late-game inactives and build lineups with the flexibility that you can swap in guys if inactives pop up. Both Sanders and Sutton were value plays and should have been higher owned. In Week 5, Sanders is $5,100 and Sutton is $4,900.
The Will Dissly Chalk Hits
The trend against the Arizona Cardinals’ defense continues. Tight ends cannot be contained versus this defense and you should just continue to play tight ends until something else tells you otherwise. In Week 4 DFS, Will Dissly was massive chalk with 40.3% ownership at tight end and he hit by scoring 18.7 fantasy points. In Week 5, the Bengals will play Arizona, setting the stage for an extremely cheap Tyler Eifert at $3,300 and C.J. Uzomah at $2,600.
The Keenan Allen Wide Receiver Trap
A tip for DFS players is that paying up for the expensive chalk wide receivers do not usually pan out. That was the whole idea surrounding Allen this week, who was priced up at $7,600. He scored just 9.8 fantasy points and had a whopping 60.9% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP and a 39.6% ownership in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. When looking for exposure to teams with high implied totals always aim for the receivers that are cheaper. In this scenario, it should have been a no-brainer to play Dontrelle Inman at $3,000, who was at 13.6% in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. Always eat the low-priced value wide receiver chalk and never on high-priced WRs.
Wayne Gallman Jr. Delivers As Chalk Running Back
We all wondered if Gallman would see a full snap share in Week 4 DFS and he delivered. He scored 28.8 fantasy points and at 4,600 was a great value play for anyone who used him. When you get a running back with a three-down skill set under 5K they need to be rostered. He was at 18.1% ownership in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest and was at a whopping 44.7% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. But will he continue to be a value play in Week 5? Considering his new price of $5,400 and a date with the Vikings defense, I am hesitant on Gallman for Week 5.
Kerryon Johnson Delivers
I was very high on Johnson entering this week and he came up big. He rushed for 125 yards and had two receptions. However, he was unable to find the end zone and actually fumbled at the goal line, which resulted in a touchdown for the Chiefs. He was highly owned at 25.7% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP and 16.2% ownership in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH. It could have been a bigger game for Johnson, but it is worth noting that game flow favored the Lions, allowing Johnson to get 26 carries. He will be heavily owned when the Lions play the Packers weak run defense in Week 6 following the Lions’ bye week.
Austin Hooper Price Break
The people at DraftKings do not like Hooper. After another 25-point performance in Week 4 DFS, Hooper’s salary has increased by just $200 to $4,500. Through the first four weeks of the season, Hooper has at least six targets and four receptions in each game. At the tight end position, he ranks fourth in the NFL in receptions, second in touchdowns and seventh in targets. Via DraftKings, he has caught 81.8 percent of the passes thrown his way since the start of last season. He will continue to be a value at his price into Week 5.
Leonard Fournette: It’s All About Touches
Leonard Fournette still has not scored a touchdown yet this season and that trend is going to end very soon. The amount of touches Fournette is seeing is absurd. He is seeing over 90% of the running workload and 20% in the passing game. That trend continued on Sunday with 29 rushing attempts for 225 rushing yards along with two receptions for 20 receiving yards. On the season Fournette has 96 total touches which is 24 per game. At this rate, it is just a matter of time until Fournette finds the end zone. His price is at $6,500 in Week 5. He is an ideal cash game play.
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Image via: Erik Drost
