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Another solid output for our Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games (if you made the late pivot to Herbert over Fields as discussed on the livestream). The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Derrick Henry (45%), David Montgomery (40%), Cooper Kupp (30%), Amari Cooper (30%), Nick Westbrook (15%), Will Dissly (15%)
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD)
Hurts is an easy plug and play cash game (and GPP) quarterback for me on this Week 4 slate. This game against Kansas City has a 55-point total and will offer DFS players plenty of back-and-forth action. The Chiefs come into this matchup carrying the nut-worst 32nd defensive DVOA grade and that will bode well for a dual-threat signal-caller in Jalen Hurts (who has a 3.4x AETY Model value grade). I’m starting my cash game build with Jalen Hurts, simple as that.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,800 DK / $10,200 FD) & Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)
We don’t need to discuss the two, top-dog running backs this week in great detail. Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are OUT for the Titans leaving Derrick Henry as the only reliable skill-position player for Tennessee. The dude has a 25-carry player prop, lol. He’s pricey as hell on FanDuel and you can tell yourself the Jets’ will line up with eight in the box and say “anyone but Henry can beat us”, but he’s still capable of breaking the slate at any moment.
On FanDuel, I’m likely to fade him and just roll with Kamara who’s also in an excellent spot (and at home) as a 7-point favorite against the Giants who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. You’re going to want one of these guys in your cash game lineup.
David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD)
On DraftKings, I’m eating the Montgomery chalk in my cash game (and likely GPP) builds and calling it a day. The Bears’ offense was atrocious last week, that is no secret, but the play calling duties will revert back to Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor (who Montgomery excelled with at the end of 2020). On FanDuel, I’d likely pivot up to Nick Chubb or down to Ezekiel Elliott.
Trey Sermon ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)
*Absolute cash game lock if Elijah Mitchell is out for this game. Please check back on Sunday for updates, but Mitchell was in a non-contact jersey at Friday’s practice and is doubtful to play. With a key focus on Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara, we need the savings Sermon offers, especially in a matchup at home against Seattle who’s giving up over 150 rushing yards per game.
UPDATE: Mitchell is out, Sermon is a go.
Honorable Mention: Zack Moss (love on FanDuel, still solid on DK), Mike Davis, Chubba Hubbard
NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD)
I’m sorry, but Cooper Kupp does not belong in the same price bracket as Davante Adams. Kupp is on absolute fire and I do not blame you whatsoever if you choose Kupp over Adams, but I’m going Adams here all day. The AETY Model projects Adams (with no MVS, he’s out with injury) for over 100 receiving yards and 8.5 receptions… That is the highest pre-match output for a wide receiver in the AETY Model’s 2021 season history.
Again, Cooper Kupp is 100% in play and he will be popular, but if the pricing is this close, I’m on Adams against a Steelers’ secondary that is getting torched but opposing #1 wide receivers.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)
Way too cheap for a talented (and finally healthy), Odell Beckham Jr. going up against the AETY Model’s favorite matchup, Bashaud Breeland. Now that Beckham got a full game under his belt and still no Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham should be in a spot for a 25-28% target share. In this matchup, that will easily get Beckham to 2.5x value for our NFL DFS Cash Game builds.
Calvin Ridley ($7,000 DK / $7,200 FD)
Incredibly affordable on FanDuel, Calvin Ridley in the dome against a Washington secondary that bleeds fantasy points to opposing wide receiver one(s). Ridley is coming off of an 11-target game and projects to own another 30% target share this week while teammate Russell Gage is out with injury. I like this game as a potential sneaky shoot-out and hopefully a breakout game with Calvin Ridley and rookie, Kyle Pitts.
On the other side, Terry McLaurin ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD) is a helluva option for your cash game lineup as he’s owned a 32% target share while Heinicke is under-center and Atlanta’s secondary is arguably worse than Washington’s.
Value Wide Receivers
- Corey Davis ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)
- Robert Woods ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
- Tim Patrick ($4,900 DK / $6,100 FD)
- Jaylen Waddle ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)
Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Nick Westbrook, Amari Cooper
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD)
Much more affordable on FanDuel, but if you can afford Travis Kelce, you play him! The Eagles’ cover-two against Kelce should lead to a field-day for a position that most people punt-and-pray. Starting your cash build with Kelce is the most +EV move in cash games.
Will Dissly ($2,600 DK / $4,400 FD)
If I’m not going to Kelce (I probably will), I’m simply punting all the way down to Will Dissly while Gerald Everett is on the COVID-19 injury reserve. It’s gross, but you’ll like the way your build looks around him. Please, just don’t play another punt player with Dissly.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Logan Thomas, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram
Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
New York Jets
Good luck to all!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
