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Welcome back NFL! Helluva, Week `1 effort across the board and loved to see all of the Win Daily Members’ screenshots of both NFL DFS GPP hits and cash games! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Justin Herbert (likely 30%), Najee Harris (30%), Chris Carson (25%), Ezekiel Elliott (20%), Keenan Allen (40%), Cooper Kupp (20%), CeeDee Lamb (20%), Noah Fant (20%)… I’m likely fine with all of the above besides Cooper Kupp.
- PEOPLE WILL BE LOADING UP ON DAL/LAC exposure. DO NOT FADE THIS GAME, but you do not need to full on stack it in cash.
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)
Kyler Murray is likely to be a staple in this article on a weekly basis. The QB1 from Week 1 is back in another matchup he should be able to exploit with both his legs and arms. Minnesota’s secondary (outside of Patrick Peterson who played decently in Cincinnati) is still trash and ranks in the bottom ten in pass defense DVOA.
Murray is yet again the top-rated quarterback according to the AETY Model and if you can afford him, you should feel good about him anchoring your cash game lineup.
Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD)
Mr. Chalk of Week 2 and AETY Model approved as the #3 overall projected point-scorer from the Quarterback position and also the #3 overall quarterback value. It’s very likely over 50% of the DraftKings field selects Herbert as their cash game quarterback and probably 20-30% on FanDuel will do the same.
With DeMarcus Lawrence recently put on the IR, the Cowboys are going to have a very difficult time establishing a pass rush leaving Herbert and a loaded core of pass-catchers to torch this Cowboys’ secondary who gave up nearly 400-yards to Tom Brady a week ago. I’m likely to eat the chalk here and enjoy the show with a tight-spread and a 55-point total.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
In terms of “top-tier” running backs, it’s hard to not love Alvin Kamara as your feature back in NFL DFS Cash Games this week… especially on FanDuel at that price-tag. The AETY Model absolutely loves Kamara’s expected usage this week grading him with an expected 80% total opportunity share (passing target share and rushing opportunity share). That is second to just Christian McCaffrey (who obviously is always in-play for cash games).
The Panthers’ run-defense looked incredibly stout last week using their “big-nickel” package often with three safeties on the field to stop the run, but that was against the New York Jets. I don’t expect a ceiling game from Kamara here, but the usage alone makes him a sexy cash game play.
Chris Carson ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)
I absolutely loved what I saw from this new Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. I had mentioned Russell Wilson in every single article I wrote last week expecting a blow-up game with the Waldron system and he did not disappoint. Sure, the pace of that game was lower than expected but this Seahawks’ offense was the definition of efficient (ranking 9th in rushing DVOA and 5th in passing).
As much as I love the Cowboys/Chargers matchup, we need to get some exposure to this Seattle game with a current total sitting at 54 points. Carson is the most affordable piece of real-estate in that game and also has zero competition behind him now that Rashaad Penny is set to miss multiple weeks with injury.
Najee Harris ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD)
Ultimate freesquare on FanDuel with that price-tag and likely a field-favorite on DraftKings as well. If there’s any chalk running back I’m afraid to roster in cash this week, it’s Najee Harris. The expected usage rate is incredibly high (right behind Kamara), but this run-blocking scheme from a weak Pittsburgh offensive line leaves much to be desired. That being said, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers in Week 1… that is hard to ignore at an affordable salary for cash game builds.
Joe Mixon ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
The Bears defense is brutal and Joe Mixon is another Kamara-Harris type in terms of rarely going to leave the field. My main focus for my cash game running backs is overall touches and Mixon is a guy that will finish top-5 likely every week in running back touches (he had 33 of them last week). I expect little-to-no defense on both sides of this game and that should bode well for Joe Mixon against a borderline practice squad caliber defense Chicago is rolling out.
Damien Harris ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)
What a showing for Damien Harris in his season debut as the featured back of the New England Patriots compiling over 115 all-purpose yards. As a six-point favorite in a low-total against a Jets’ defense that surrendered over 4.7 yards per carry to McCaffrey last, I’m fine with taking a little bit of a risk on Harris for the sake of salary relief. He’s got a nice all-purpose yard prop of over 90 yards and is -125 to score a touchdown. When in doubt, I’ll trust Vegas here (and the AETY Model agrees) that Harris finds a way to provide well over 2.5x DraftKings value on this price-tag.
Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Eli Mitchell, Nick Chubb
NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)
All hail, Keenan Allen this week against the Dallas Cowboys. We touched on this matchup that is going to provide fantasy fireworks from the second the ball is kicked off and there’s no who provides a higher-floor in that game than Keenan Allen. Fifteen targets is very well a conservative projection for Allen in this game. If you’re not playing Herbert (hell, even if you are), ensure Keenan Allen finds a way to your cash game build as he will likely have Jourdan Lewis in a pretzel all game long.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)
Similar to Keenan Allen, everyone in the industry is going to rush to roster CeeDee Lamb due to the savings off of Amari Cooper. Again, you want exposure to both sides of the ball in this game but I do not think this is a home run spot for CeeDee Lamb as he’ll likely see a lot of Chris Harris in coverage (my personal favorite cornerback). Despite the old age, Harris can still ball out. Chris Harris is out. CeeDee eats!
Having said that, the expected volume for this Dallas passing attack is far to0 great to fear a relatively bad matchup for CeeDee Lamb. As much as it’s a bad matchup for CeeDee, it’s also bad matchup for Chris Harris… CeeDee is an excellent route runner and will win his fair share on Sunday.
Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)
According to the AETY Model, Allen Robinson is the number one mis-priced (on DraftKings) wide receiver in regards to his overall projection. Allen Robinson currently sits as the #10 overall wide receiver this week but priced as the 17th “best” wide receiver on DraftKings.
I don’t like him as much on FanDuel due to the high PPR floor, but I made a living off of using those pricing discrepancies the AETY Model spits out when projections are completed. Robinson is projected for a 30% target share on a team that should throw the ball close to 40 times. Pair that volume with the trio of below-average cornerbacks he’ll see from Cincinnati, Robinson is as safe as they come this week. Between you and I, Mixon and Robinson is one of my favorite “mini game stacks” on the slate this week.
If you’d rather use Ezekiel Elliott for your Dallas exposure (and not rostering CeeDee because we do not want to full on stack in cash), Allen Robinson is an EXCELLENT cash game pivot and will be a low-owned difference maker in NFL DFS Cash Games.
Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
Devonta Smith is a route running extraordinaire and came out with a bang last week in his NFL debut against the Falcons. He is clearly top wideout on this roster and should be priced in the low $6K range on both fantasy outlets. We need the salary relief this week and there’s likely no higher overall value than Devonta Smith against a banged-up 49ers’ secondary who just lost Jason Verrett for the season and currently has Emmanuel Moseley not participating in practice.
All in all, this 49ers’ defense is nothing like it was over the past couple of years and Devonta Smith will have matchups to exploit all game long.
Honorable Mention: Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd (DK), Marquez Callaway, AJ Brown, DJ Moore
Tight Ends
*If you can afford Darren Waller or Kittle, you play them in cash. They’re listed as honorable mention due to the lineup build this article likely leaves you with… as you’ll notice, there isn’t a lot of room for Waller/Kittle on that (unless you’re on FanDuel) build but if you can find a way, you play one of them!
Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)
Oh how the mighty in ownership have fallen. Just a week ago this guy was 50% owned in cash games and is now likely to be around the 10% range. I will never understand how people will just bail on someone after one week. Pitts led the Falcons in targets and also was heavily involved in the red zone.
If you’re looking into the real metrics that matter here (and this should surprise no one), Pitts was only used to pass block 5% of the time… that my friends is incredibly valuable for a fantasy tight end. This dude lines up all over the field and his price is still soft enough to where we should all be licking our chops to roster Pitts this week as they’re going to be play catch-up early and often against Tampa Bay who is currently a 13-point favorite, lol.
Pitts is likely to finish this game with 10+ targets and on a slate with no Travis Kelce, I’m locking him in.
Noah Fant ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD)
Just simply way too cheap on DraftKings and close to a playable value (in terms of optimal cash game builds) on FanDuel. With Jerry Juedy out for quite some time, there are a lot of targets to go elsewhere in this offense. I don’t think this will be a massive bump up in Fant’s already strong workload, but any bump up in target share is noteworthy. My only concern here is we will still see a lot of “Albert O” in the red-zone.
Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)
Goedert is clearly the TE1 in Philadelphia and one of their most important skill position players as he logged over 73% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week. The AETY Model loves this spot for Goedert going against a lot of Cover 3 that San Francisco is likely to run. Assuming Jalen Hurts has to take what the defense gives him, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert should
Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Jared Cook, Cole Kmet, George Kittle
Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Tampa Bay
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets
Good luck to all!
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