NFL DFS: Week 17 Cash Game Checkdown

I hope everyone had a happy holiday season and a wonderful start to their new year! Loved seeing all of the screenshots of wins last week. Always nice to come back to see everyone winning! Lets get back to it and are dive into a crazy 15-game Week 17 NFL DFS main slate.
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 17, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: Ty Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Jon Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and George Kittle project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. 
• Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Crunched for time this week so just listing off the players in my cash pool:

Top QB Targets

1. Lamar Jackson – save for cash, but blowout potential in this one. Lamar will go balls to the wall to win this game, let’s just hope it stays close to keep him in all four quarters.
   
2. Ryan Tannehill – Top play for me. Houston’s defense is awful, we just smashed with Brandon Allen last week, lol.
   
3. Aaron Rodgers – No one as safe as Rodgers in hopes to close out his MVP season and a first round BYE.
   

Value QB Targets

4. Drew Lock – Any opportunity to pick on the Raiders’ defense

5. Kirk Cousins – Expecting a Vikings’ pass attack onslaught

Running Backs

1. Derrick Henry
   
2. Jonathan Taylor – Has the ability to put up Henry-like numbers today against a Jacksonville team that has no interest in winning a football game.
   
3. Myles Gaskin – AETY Model likes his chances at garnering the third most touches on this slate in a must-win game for the Dolphins. Workload/Volume is incredibly important in NFL DFS cash game builds.
   
4. Melvin Gordon – Don’t use him with Drew Lock in cash, but great price for a three-down back against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL (it’s them or Houston, lol).
   
5. Wayne Gallman – Vander Esch is one of the key run-stoppers for Dallas and he again will miss this game. Expect the Giants to lean on Gallman for 16+ touches in a must-win game.
   
6. Ty Montgomery – Disgusting, but there’s no running back healthy for New Orleans. He should be a lock for 3-5 catches, but don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill gets the goal-line work.
   
7. Malcolm Brown – Cam Akers may suit up but my guess is that’s for an emergency backup role. Brown should get a ton of touches in a game the Rams must win to have playoff hopes.
   
   Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Rodney Smith, Ty Johnson

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams
   
2. Justin Jefferson
   
3. Robert Woods – only game in town for the Rams if you’re not using Malcolm Brown
   
4. AJ Brown – matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the highest total game on the slate… yes, please.
   
5. Tyler Lockett – San Francisco secondary is extremely banged up and this is the perfect buy-low week for Lockett who’s price dropped significantly on NFL DFS slates.
   
6. Laviska Shenault – Too cheap for the WR1 in JAX in a game they’ll be chasing points from the get-go.
   
7. Jerry Jeudy – AETY expects his target share to be ~30% for the day… at $4,200 on DraftKings sign me up.
   
   Value WRs
   
8. Marquez Callaway – my preferred punt at the WR position.
   
9. Josh Reynolds – meh
   
10. Richie James

Tight Ends

1. George Kittle
   
2. Darren Waller
   
3. Jonnu Smith
   
4. Irv Smith
   
5. Jordan Akins
   
6. Noah Fant
   

*Defense is all over the board today with multiple teams sitting their starters. Most of my builds go to Jets or the Browns*

NFL DFS Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Ty Montgomery
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Richie James
TE: Jordan Akins
Flex: Jonathan Taylor
DST: New York Jets