NFL DFS Week 17 – Cash Game and GPP Checkdown

Happy New Yeard to all and welcome back to the Week 17 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. As I had to postpone my family holiday plans last week with COVID, this will be a combined article so I can get back to spending time with my family.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Cash Game Pool:

• Josh Allen – best matchup on the slate for a QB who’s averaged 32+ fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. Atlanta will likely have a hard time keeping it close, but the floor for Josh Allen is second-to-none in Week 17.
  
• Jalen Hurts – A must-win game for the Eagles going up against a defeated Washington Football Team and their 27th ranked defense (DVOA). A tight-spread and divisional matchup that should offer us a lot of back and forth.
  
• Trey Lance – If you need the chalk, salary relief play, Trey Lance is your guy. I don’t expect San Francisco to have a fantasy-point-friendly offensive attack here for Lance, but the price-tag and the rushing upside should be plenty to get him to 2.5x value, although I fear we may need 3-4x out of Lance to compete on this full slate.

GPP Pool:

• Patrick Mahomes / Joe Burrow – one of the two games with a 50+ point-total and plenty of stacking options to go around. I always prefer Mahomes against a team with a low blitz rate and Cincinnati have one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. Burrow is obviously coming off of a legendary performance last week and should be pushed to pass early and often as the Chiefs continue their hot run on offense.
  
• Matt Stafford – Quarterbacks against the Baltimore Ravens… need I say more? If there’s any bounce-back matchup for Stafford to get right, it’s this weekend in Baltimore.
  
• Kyler Murray / Dak Prescott – highest total game on the board with little-to-no ownership. The AETY Model projects Dak Prescott to have the most pass attempts on this slate and volume is always something we’re interested in when rostering NFL DFS quarterbacks.
  
  Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill, Tom Brady

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Ronald Jones – as safe as they come for cash games and still a great piece for GPP lineups.
  
• Jonathan Taylor – highest floor on the slate at the running back position.
  
• David Montgomery – this guy’s usage rate is through the roof and is priced in the mid-tier against the Giants 27th ranked run defense (DVOA).
  
• Darrel Williams – with CEH likely out, Darrel Williams is the auto-play value running back for a team with the second highest team total on the slate.
  
• Alvin Kamara – Kamara under 5% owned against a weak run defense… I’m interested in GPP formats.
  
• Devin Singletary – RB1 on the team with the highest implied team total on the slate against a Falcons’ 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Jaret Patterson (if Gibson is OUT), Sony Michel, Javonte Williams, Boston Scott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Jaylen Waddle – Slot receivers against the Titans. Add in that Waddle is also the number one target on Miami and projected for an expected 33% target share… that is an excellent start for all NFL DFS formats.
  
• Cooper Kupp – We all know about the potential record Cooper Kupp is enclosing on and it’s certain Matt Stafford does as well. I find it very improbable Kupp finds a way to get the record but in this matchup against the Ravens, Kupp will do everything he can to get the yardage or reception record and that would lead to a MONSTER fantasy outing.
  
• CeeDee Lamb / Michael Gallup / Amari Cooper – Gallup will likely be the golden child for cash games at the low price-tag, but the upside of CeeDee Lamb and/or Amari Cooper in NFL DFS GPP builds.
  
• Zay Jones – A cheap punt wide receiver who has been slowly coming on of late with back-to-back double digit fantasy outings and a ~21% target share in the month of December. The Colts’ roster is riddled with COVID right now and we know healthy or not, the weak spot of this defense is its’ secondary. As a touchdown underdog, we should see a nice gamescript for the Las Vegas Raiders passing game.
  
• Ja’Maar Chase / Tee Higgins / Tyler Boyd – Although I don’t really love the recency bias on Tyler Boyd due to a broken play long touchdown, I want to get a piece of the Bengals offense in some way in my GPP lineups. At this point, I prefer to just take the savings on Tee Higgins over Ja’Maar Chase, but the Chiefs blitz A LOT and that should lead to the “X”, Ja’Maar Chase being the first read for Joe Burrow.
  
• Christian Kirk – Too cheap for an inside, top-receiver against the Cowboys’ secondary.
  
• DeVonta Smith – Excellent leverage off of what likely will be a Boston Scott chalk week. I love investing in teams that have something on the line this time of the year and DeVonta Smith should be in for a field day against an awful Washington secondary.
  
• Braxton Berrios – only game in town with Eli Moore and Jamison Crowder OUT.
  
• Courtland Sutton – Drew Lock’s #1 target in addition to Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy OUT.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman Jr.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce
  
• Rob Gronkowski
  
• Dallas Goedert
  
• Zach Ertz

Honorable Mention: John Bates, Cole Kmet, George Kittle

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans – GPP only. Leverage off of a 25% owned Trey Lance.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.