Jared Contestabile 
If anyone had told you at the beginning of the season that the Jets/Jaguars showdown Week 16 had playoff implications, you would have called them crazy. Well that thought has become a reality. The 6-8 Jaguars are just a game out of 1st in the AFC South, while the 7-7 Jets are fighting for a wild card spot. New York (New Jersey though, am I right?) is favored by one point with a total of just 36 points. Let’s keep the hot streak on showdowns rolling!
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Captain/MVP Plays
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($17,100 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)
Aside from a small bump in the road against Detroit, T-Law may be the hottest QB in the NFL over the last month. He has thrown for 11 touchdowns to just one interception, and has at least 318 yards in three of his last four. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in football, but there’s no way I’m fading T-Law right now.
The Jets have surrendered just 13 touchdown passes allowed this entire season. Something has to give, and I’m banking on the suddenly hot Jaguars to keep it going. Not only has Lawrence been on fire, but he is throwing the ball a LOT. He has attempted 40, 37, 31, 42, and 42 passes in his last five games. Volume alone will keep him in play in this one, and I’m all aboard the Jaguars bandwagon right now. DUVALLLLLL!
Garrett Wilson, Jets ($13,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)
Wilson has found a way over the last month regardless of who has been under center. He has posted 26.4, 27.2, 13.8, and 13.8 points in his last four games. The Jags have been a solid defensive unit for much of the season. They have still served up over 35 fantasy points per game to opposing WR, and Wilson has been the Jets’ rock.
Having Zach Wilson under center isn’t a good thing for anyone but Zach Wilson. That said, he was competent last week. His accuracy is still embarrassingly bad for a professional QB, but Wilson will remain the top target. Garrett is quickly approaching the 1,000 yard mark, and will likely hit it on Thursday night. He is averaging almost 10 targets per game over his last four (highlighted by 15 against Minnesota). If you want upside on the Jets offense, your first glance needs to be at their stud rookie.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($15,300 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)
While the masses flock to Zay Jones here, I’m pivoting to Kirk to be different. Not only is he more expensive, but he will undoubtedly be lower owned. Jones has totaled 14-186-4 over his last two games, and has been a top-7 WR in fantasy in both weeks. He may be getting some extra attention from Mr. Sauce Gardner in this one, and that’s what I’m hoping.
Now let’s get back to Kirk. Despite the monster performances of late for Jones, Kirk has still had plenty of value. His last six games look like this (DraftKings points):
21.6
34.5
8.1
19.4
9.5
15.2
Not too shabby. Against the Lions a few weeks back, Jones struggled to the tune of just 2-16 on seven targets. What did Kirk do? Be the #1 WR he is being paid to be. He picked up the slack with a 6-104 line on eight targets. Jones has asserted himself, but in my mind, Kirk is still the top dawg. If we can get him at a fraction of the ownership, even better.
FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays
Zonovan Knight, Jets ($7,000 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)
Another option I’m looking at that could come in lower owned than he should is Knight. Yet another rookie (and a UDFA at that) who is making waves. He is coming off a weak game with just 13 carries for 23 yards. That also occurred against the Cowboys, who we all know are one of the top units in the league. Well, good news for us…the Jaguars are not the Cowboys.
Jacksonville ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing nearly 25 fantasy points per game to opposing RB. Michael Carter will see some work in this one, but it still looks like Knight’s job to lose while Breece Hall is on IR until next year. James Robinson could be a threat to take some work also, but I’m still holding steady on the Knight train myself.
Evan Engram, Jaguars ($7,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
Speaking of hot players, Engram continues to roll. He has totaled 70.4 DraftKings points over the last three, directly coinciding with the Trevor Lawrence breakout. He has at least 14 DK points in each of those games (and 42.2 against the Titans).
The Jets aren’t a team we would be going out of our way to target heavily on a full slate, but this isn’t a full slate, is it? Engram is actually in a decent spot. The Jets are 22nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Engram has seen thirty-two targets over the last three weeks.
Volume, volume, volume. Three times is enough, right? Volume.
Jaguars D/ST ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Is the Jaguars defense better than the Jets defense? Absolutely not. But Trevor Lawrence is about 10000x better than Zach Wilson. The MILF-hunter himself has seven scores and seven turnovers in eight games this season. He quite simply has been terrible. Even the Jets don’t want to start him, but Mike White is injured. Consider it a blessing. It will truly be a Christmas miracle if Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over in this one. I’ll call my shot with a defensive score on TNF for Jacksonville…and just imagine the leverage when that happens. I mentioned how I’m high on the Jags, right? This is a plug and play for me.
Other Options
I’m not super high on Elijah Moore here. I much prefer Garrett Wilson and not much else in the Jets passing game.
Chasing CJ Uzomah’s “big” performance seems incredibly foolish. He scored on both of his targets, and now has a whopping 17-178-2 line on the season. Pass. Big Pass. Mega pass. Uber pass.
If you’re absolutely dead set on another member of the Jets’ passing attack, give me Tyler Conklin. He has actually produced at times this season, and volume has been there when playing from behind more often than not.
Marvin Jones is always a threat to find the end zone, and with the Jags’ passing volume, he will see some looks.
Let’s not forget about Travis Etienne, Jr...he faces a tall task against this defense, but his speed and elusiveness could lead to him breaking the slate on a single play. I’m more focused on the passing game, but you absolutely NEED exposure to him. He is arguably the most talented player in the pool for this showdown.
Listen, the Jets’ QB sucks. Have you heard that yet? They will struggle to finish drives, which leads us to Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein. He is a few years removed from being elite, but he still has a massive range. They used to call him “Legatron”, right? Maybe not, but I still like him here.
Riley Patterson is in play here too. The total is very low…Vegas isn’t expecting many touchdowns. Get some legs in your lineups.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
