brgrewe@gmail.com 
Happy Holidays to all and welcome back to the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 14, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Lock in Cooper Kupp, lol.
- Great week for value running backs.
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD)
Matt Stafford is arguably the safest quarterback on the slate as he’s surpassed the 20-point clip in all but four games this season. The Vikings’ defense is always one we like to pick on and the AETY Model agrees as Stafford grades out as the number one quarterback on this main slate, in addition to the Rams grading first in Adjusted Expected Team Totals.
Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD)
Ridiculously cheap on DraftKings as the algorithms did not get done in time before Hurts was announced the starter on Tuesday Night Football (that sounds weird). With this rushing upside in a cakewalk divisional matchup, the only reason I can think of to fade Hurts would be the double-digit favorite narrative of this game, in addition to a healthy Miles Sanders. With Jake Fromm likely to start for New York, I cannot find a gamescript to where the Giants keep this one close and Hurts’ pushing the pace.
Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD
Incredible value here this week against a Baltimore secondary we’ve been picking on for the past month (and the same one, if not worse now than when Burrow had a career day against them in Week 4). The same reason we loved Aaron Rodgers last week is the same reason I love Burrow this week. Baltimore’s defense is the definition of a pass funnel and both teams will be extremely motivated to win this football game, which should keep it going back and forth.
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes (if Kelce/Hill are active)
NFL DFS Running Backs
Ronald Jones ($5,100 DK / $5,400 FD)
With Leonard Fournette on the IR, lock in Ronald Jones in your NFL DFS cash games.
Alexander Mattison ($6,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Stone cold lock on FanDuel with Dalvin Cook out. On DraftKings, I’ll personally look elsewhere, as I do not love to attack this Rams defensive line in a gamescript I think Stafford and the Rams control.
Josh Jacobs ($6,000 DK / $6,800 FD)
Way too cheap for the three-down running back with a top-three opportunity share, at home, against the 23rd ranked run defense (DVOA).
James Robinson ($5,900 DK / $8,200 FD)
A true, RB1 who just saw 84% of the snaps in Week 15 under run-heavy interim head coach, Darrel Bevell and a matchup against the worst defense in the NFL… Yea.
Justin Jackson ($4,200 DK / $5,400 FD)
With Austin Ekeler out, we will 100% see a committee at the running back position for the Chargers, but Justin Jackson will certainly lead the way. My concern here is how much we’ve been seeing Josh Kelley inside the 5-yard line, but at $4,200 on DraftKings, we only need 10+ fantasy points to hit value in our cash game lineups.
Honorable Mention: David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Cordarrelle Patterson
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,100 DK / $9,800 FD)
Lock him in.
Antonio Brown ($4,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
On DraftKings, you lock him in your cash game lineup. With no Mike Evans and no Chris Godwin, this one is easy.
Diontae Johnson ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD)
The only one close to Cooper Kupp’s target share on this slate is Mr. Diontae Johnson with an adjusted expected target share of 29%. The floor is just so safe for Diontae Johnson regardless of the matchup, but if the Chiefs’ get their studs back healthy, the pace of this game should setup nicely for another high-output for Diontae Johnson.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD) or Tee Higgins ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
If we love Joe Burrow, we love his top targets in the passing game against this decimated Baltimore secondary.
DK Metcalf ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
Despite the low-scoring performances, DK Metcalf has still lead this Seahawks receiving core in target share since the return of Russell Wilson. The AETY Model absolutely loves the Seahawks’ passing attack this week, which is scary, but the Chicago Bears’ secondary is literally all second stringers or practice squad players (yes, I consider Kindle Vildor a true second-stringer). Metcalf’s air yards continue to climb and we’re just awaiting the massive breakout game for 2021. It should be this week.
Laquon Treadwell ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
If you need a punt-play, look no further than Laquon Treadwell. With Laviska Shenault on the COVID-19 IR, Treadwell should get a decent bump up in targets (which have been coming at a consistent basis over the past few weeks, as is).
Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Russell Gage, Josh Palmer (if you fade Justin Jackson, use Palmer’s value).
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
As we wait to hear more on the status of Travis Kelce, here are my top interests at the tight-end position. As of now, with all of this value, I’ll likely be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end spot…
– Mark Andrews
– Rob Gronkowski
– Kyle Pitts
– Dallas Goedert
Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons
New: NFL DFS Cash Game Lock Plays
- Cooper Kupp
- Ronald Jones
- Antonio Brown (DK)
- James Robinson (DK)
- Josh Jacobs
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
