DFSGhost 
As teams in the NFL battle injuries and COVID protocols while jockeying for playoff positions and seeding, the show must go on as we head into Week 15. Be sure to keep up with the news, as teams have been experiencing decreasing player availability every day this week; there will certainly be a ton of value to be had with the number of players listed as out, but be sure to check for updates throughout the weekend. Let’s ride.
While cash games are not the most exciting contests to play, they are absolutely vital when it comes to long-term profitability in every sport, let alone NFL DFS, and allows us to ensure a stable bankroll on a weekly basis. In essence, half of your entry fees should be dedicated to cash games so that, should every one of your GPP lineups miss the pay line, you simply break even on the week. For more, please be sure to read Stix’s NFL DFS Strategy article, if you have not done so already. Some key items to remember when building your NFL cash lineups:
- High floor: we do not need players to have a high ceiling in cash games, rather, a safe floor is what’s important.
- High volume: volume is king in every format, but for cash games, you simply cannot afford to take a risk on wide receivers that are boom or bust with an 80-yard touchdown being needed for them to pay off.
- Selective value plays: I try to limit my cash build to a single one since they are often the main reason for a path to failure.
- Not a part of a stack: Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team: if that team does poorly, your whole lineup does. This is certainly not a risk we need to take in a cash games, however, a QB/WR pairing is fine, or other two-man combinations depending on the offense.
- Chalky (highly rostered) players: One of the key factors to being successful in cash games is rostership numbers; in GPPs, we always love pivoting to others who are rostered at a much lower number in an attempt to get different and jump to the top of the leaderboards. However, in cash games, you need to keep pace with the field and simply cross the pay line by a single spot.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
The dual-threat quarterback may be without his top target in DeAndre Hopkins until the NFL Playoffs, but Kyler Murray has the best floor/ceiling combination of anyone at the position this week. In last week’s loss to their division rival, the Los Angeles Rams, Murray posted over 22 fantasy points on DK and just under 20 on FD without scoring a single touchdown, demonstrating just how dominant he’s been this season as the top player at the position on a per-game basis. The Cardinals now face a Detroit Lions team that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed, whereby Murray leads the league with his exceptional deep ball.
Matt Stafford ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)
If you cannot get up to Murray on FD, Stafford is a great pivot for our cash game builds. Pacing a Sean McVay led offense is no easy task, but Stafford has been up to the challenge this season in his first with the Rams, ranking 3rd in the NFL in passing yards, 2nd in touchdowns, and 6th in air yards per attempt. In a friendly matchup versus a Seahawks secondary that is now without star safety Jamal Adams for the rest of the season, Stafford and company will do work on home soil.
*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.
Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD)
With back-to-back subpar performances for the Cowboys offense as a unit, Dak Prescott is now priced down on both sites and I plan on taking full advantage. While he has only thrown for 449 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, where he’s also thrown three interceptions, the Giants defense is one that he knows well and can expose. Despite ranking 10th in DVOA against the pass, the Giants surrendered a whopping 44 points to the Cowboys back in Week 5, where Dak threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. With the NFL Playoffs right around the corner, look for one of the league’s best offenses to get back on track in a divisional game.
Honorable Mentions
- Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD)
Jalen Hurts ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD)*Update* WSH @ PHI has been postponed to Tuesday.- Joe Burrow ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD)
Projecting to be one of the highest rostered players on this NFL slate, Saquon Barkley will likely be a staple point in my cash builds, alongside the running back listed right below him. As I stated last week, it’s tough for me to stomach playing any New York Giant right now, not because of the lack of talent in someone like Barkley, rather, their offense is simply as inefficient as one can imagine. Now without Daniel Jones and having Mike Glennon under center, it only gets worse, if that was even possible. However, seeing double-digit carries and a combined 17 targets over the last three weeks gives Saquon a safe floor and he continues to have the highest touchdown equity of anyone on his team.
James Robinson ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD)
With Urban Meyer now out of Jacksonville, the NFL’s chalk play of the week is none other than the undrafted bell cow out of Illinois State. While he only played 63% of the snaps last week and has a combined 14 carries in his last two games, Robinson gets a Houston Texans defensive unit that ranks 32nd in rushing defense DVOA, have allowed the most total yards on the ground, in addition to being 30th in yards per attempt.
James Connor ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD)
If you are not playing Kyler Murray as your cash game QB, feel free to get exposure to the high-flying Cardinals offense with James Connor. Despite Chase Edmonds likely coming off the IR for their tilt versus the Lions, Connor is second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 14, two shy of the leader, Jonathan Taylor. Seeing double-digit carries in 10 of his last 11 games, Connor also flashed his upside in the passing game with a season-high 9-94 stat line in last week’s affair versus the Rams, and now finds himself as a near 14-point favorite versus the worst team in the league that also ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA, allowing over 135 yards per game.
Honorable Mentions:
- Najee Harris ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
- Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD)
Rams RB (check for updates later this week on Darrell Henderson’s status)*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
Pacing the NFL with 151 total targets and 11.6 targets per game, Cooper Kupp is set to lead yet another NFL slate in scoring at the wide receiver position. With the Rams having lost Robert Woods for the season, they recently brought in Odell Beckham Jr. upon his release from the Cleveland Browns, but the latter is now out for this game, having being placed on the COVID list. With Kupp drawing double digit targets in every game this season other than in Week 8 versus Houston (nine targets), there is no better play at the position.
*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.
Davante Adams ($8,900 DK / $8,500 FD)
If you are not playing Cooper Kupp on this NFL slate, then your pivot is none other than Davante Adams. With the Packers looking like a serious Super Bowl contender heading into the playoffs, the Rodgers-Adams combo looks as scary as ever, with the star wideout topping 100 yards in three straight games. Facing a Baltimore defense that remains without Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Iman Marshall, Ar’Darius Washington, DeShon Elliott, and now Chuck Clark, the only reason you’d play Adams over Kupp in cash is so the former outscores the latter, but it’s certainly enticing given the state of this Ravens secondary.
*Update* With Cooper Kupp now unavailable, I will be locking in Davante Adams.
DeVante Parker ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD)
With Jaylen Waddle landing on the COVID list, Parker will likely be one of the highest rostered players at the WR position on this NFL slate. While most were likely expecting Tua Tagovailoa to be in the quarterback section of the cash game checkdown, he did not make the cut for me because I do not like punting QB in cash games, and I will already have exposure to the Miami Dolphins passing game with one, if not both, of Parker and/or Gesicki. Despite already commanding a 21.4% target share in the aerial attack, Waddle’s team-leading 23.6% target share leaves a lot of room for productivity for both Parker and Gesicki against this Jets secondary than ranks 32nd DVOA against passing offenses.
Honorable Mentions:
DK Metcalf ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.- Christian Kirk ($5,300 DK / $6,000 FD)
- Diontae Johnson ($7,500 DK / $7,200 FD)
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DK / $6,200 FD)
I’m essentially not rostering a tight end in cash this week because Mike Gesicki is, simply put, a 6’6″ slot receiver. Running a route in the slot on 56.5% of his routes, Gesicki instantly becomes the safety blanket for Tua that Waddle was, which consistently resulted in double digit targets and 60+ yards for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama, and is as close to a staple point in our NFL cash games as it gets.
George Kittle ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
I wouldn’t have been able to get Kittle into my cash game lineups regardless with Cooper Kupp being the priority pay up option this week, but if you can get him in without two punts, do it. Kittle has the matchup we always love to pick on in the Atlanta Falcons, and despite not being on the outside versus AJ Terrell and Fabian Moreau, Kittle’s production as of late is simply outstanding, where he’s gone for 322 yards on 27 catches, including three touchdowns, in only his last two games.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
With a commanding red zone target share that leads the NFL since Week 6, Pat Freiermuth has become a go-to option for Ben Roethlisberger when it matters most. For the first time in six weeks, Freiermuth had below four targets in last week’s tilt versus the Vikings, but was primarily being hawked by Harrison Smith, and now it will not get any easier with Kevin Byard this week. If you can get up to Gesicki, make every effort to do so, but I would not change my enter build should it be Freiermuth over Gesicki, should you have DeVante Parker already, for example.
Defense/Special Teams
- Arizona Cardinals ($4,000 DK / $4,800 FD)
- Miami Dolphins ($3,700 DK / $5,000 FD)
- San Franciso 49ers ($3,100 DK / $4,300 FD)
- Cincinnati Bengals ($2,900 DK / $3,400 FD)
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
