Jon Love 
Welcome back to the Week 14 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 14, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- We cannot miss on QB this week with Brady, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Burrow, etc. all on the same slate!
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
As stated above, this is a loaded player pool at the Quarterback position and I don’t really see any reason to pay down unless you trust the rushing ability of Taysom Hill (Alvin Kamara is BACK) or Cam Newton, it’s a week to pay up to one of the below…
Top-Tier
– Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mahomes has been struggling a bit this year due to a horrid offensive line but is primed for a blow-up spot here against a Las Vegas defense that blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL.
– Josh Allen ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD) – both of these teams love to throw the football on a weekly basis… this game will be the definition of volume. Josh Allen also offers a significant floor with his rushing ability.
Mid-Tier
– Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – way too cheap despite a slower-paced game likely against San Francisco. This price is ridiculous and a banged up Joe Mixon in a matchup against the 49ers 3rd ranked run defense (DVOA) should have Zac Taylor calling for a heavy pass-script with Joe Burrow and company.
Low-Tier
– Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK ONLY)
– Cam Newton ($5,400 DK ONLY)
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott
NFL DFS Running Backs
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD)
With no Keenan Allen, it’s very likely we see the Austin Ekeler chalk week. His floor is arguably second to nobody on this slate but the price-tag is quite high if we’re paying up at Quarterback. Regardless, the Giants’ run defense is awful, grading 31st in run defense DVOA. Ekeler should be heavily leaned on in the passing game and be the first option for this offense in the red-zone.
Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)
Despite missing a couple of weeks, Alvin Kamara is going to be the focal point of this Saints’ offense with a banged up Taysom Hill, no Mark Ingram, and no Ty Montgomery (like that matters anyways). The Jets are the number one matchup for opposing running backs and the AETY Model loves Kamara’s touchdown equity in this game, as do the sportsbooks listing Kamara (-200) to score a touchdown. If Taysom can check the ball down to Kamara, we’re back on track with the fantasy play of Alvin Kamara we all know and love.
Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD)
Jacobs will hardly leave the field on Sunday now that Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Jalen Richard on the COVID-IR, this is exactly what we should be looking for in a NFL DFS cash game build… Volume! Regardless of the way this game with a 48-point total shakes out, Josh Jacobs should be game-script proof with his pass-catching ability he’s shown lately. He’s simply way too cheap and will be a core play for me across all formats of NFL DFS this weekend.
Antonio Gibson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD)
As long as JD McKissic is out, Antonio Gibson is another damn-near lock button for DFS cash games. We know Washington will want to take the air out of the football in a matchup against a lethal Dallas offense and that will bode well for one of the hottest fantasy running backs in the league in Antonio Gibson.
Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams (lock if MG3 is OUT), Leonard Fournette, D’onta Foreman (FD)
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)
One thing the AETY Model loves is picking on the inside of pass-funnel defenses that bleed fantasy production to slot receivers. Ah la, CeeDee Lamb in Week 14. The Washington Football Team give up an Adjusted Expected 15% more production to slot receivers than the average NFL pass-defense and there’s arguably no better slot receiver in the NFL than CeeDee Lamb (honorable mention Keenan Allen). Lamb should be in for a field day.
DJ Moore ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
Our weekly “pick on Atlanta’s secondary” play of the week is obviously, DJ Moore. Moore is going to be insanely popular this week and for good reason, it’s Fabian Moreau, Richie Grant, and A.J. Terrell in coverage.
Mike Williams ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD)
Assuming Mike Williams gets the nod to play on Sunday, he’s likely going to be the highest owned wide receiver on the slate and something you probably cannot avoid in NFL DFS cash games. I don’t love the matchup as James Bradberry usually does well against slower, big-body wide receivers, but the volume inside the red-zone will likely focus on Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD)
A number one wide receiver priced like a mid-tier WR2 is something I’m always interested in when looking through my cash game player pool. The AETY Model grades out Jeudy as one of the top values on this slate and the matchup on the inside against converted safety, Will Harris is one Jeudy and Bridgewater will abuse when they drop back to pass.
Cole Beasley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)
Cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate leads us to Cole Beasley. In addition, the AETY Model gives slot receivers a 12% boost in expected production against this Bucs’ secondary. As mentioned when discussing Josh Allen, all the Bills are going to do is throw the football and that puts a cheap Cole Beasley in a smash spot for NFL DFS cash games.
Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder (if Eli Moore is OUT), Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Josh Palmer (cheap punt who takes the slot for Keenan Allen), Hunter Renfrow, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk (if Deebo Samuel is OUT), DK Metcalf
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
I’ll be paying up at Tight-End this week. The player pool is loaded with Tight-End studs and I simply will not play a punt Tight-End in cash games. Here’s my order of preference…
– Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD)
– George Kittle ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD)
– Rob Gronkowski ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)
– Mark Andrews ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)
Honorable Mention: Austin Hooper, James O’Shaughnessy
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinatti Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
