NFL DFS Week 13: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

This slate is absolutely loaded with studs and multiple games with game totals over 50 points (game-stacks are certainly encouraged by me). I’ll probably keep out some star players just for the sake of showing you who I’m more focused on investing in, but this article is not meant to identify obvious studs you know are fantastic plays. I may mention them, but guys like Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey are always in play and you don’t need me to tell you they’re likely to have a nice fantasy output.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks:

• Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The clear top-option in terms of both expected fantasy output and salary on both NFL DFS outlets. This game is going to be a fantastic watch and running out a sub-10% Mahomes is always something I would advise. He’s in play for both cash and GPP lineups.
  
  Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore (punt viable)
  Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
  
• Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Herbert is probably my favorite QB on this slate, and by a decent margin. I always love rolling with Justin Herbert as this Chargers’ offense almost refuses to run the football. The Chargers and the Chiefs are the only offenses on this slate that average over 40 pass attempts per game. Pair that with the Las Vegas Raiders grading dead-last in pass defense DVOA… yea. Cash game and GPP viable at sub-5% ownership? Sign me up.
  
  *Keep an eye on their offensive line, it’s quite possible they’re down two linemen… not great if so.
  
  Stack Options: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett
  Run-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau
  
• Trevor Lawrence ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Trevor Lawrence is going to be over 15% owned which makes him a perfect cash game quarterback against the Lions’ defense in a 51-point game total. I usually LOVE to play Trevor Lawrence in GPP lineups, but only when he’s 1-2% owned. The Lions blitz a lot and have continuously improved their pressure-rate to opposing quarterbacks and that is where Lawrence still struggles. This Detroit defense is not nearly as bad as the general public thinks it is, and Trevor Lawrence does not warrant 15% or higher ownership at any price. I’ll be fading in GPP but giving him a serious look for my cash game quarterback.
  
  Stack Options: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones (punt viable), Evan Engram (punt viable)
  Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark
  
• Kenny Pickett ($5,200 DK / $6,700 FD) – My second favorite QB on this slate (in terms of overall value and ownership) is Mr. Pickett, but mainly on DraftKings. At $5,200, I absolutely love what my lineups look like when I start with Kenny Pickett as a value “punt” quarterback. Having said that, I truly don’t look at Kenny Pickett as a punt quarterback. Pickett is quietly averaging over 30 rushing yards per game (against rather quality defenses) over the past four games and that alone is enough for me to sign off for his NFL DFS cash game floor.
  
  On the GPP side of things, he’s certainly risky as hell on this slate that is loaded with high-upside, high-total game quarterbacks, but if Pickett and the Steelers can be a bit more efficient in the red-zone and we get a passing touchdown or two, Pickett may be in line for a ceiling game here in the dome against the Falcons and their 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA).
  
  Stack Options: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
  Run-Back Options: Drake London (I wouldn’t make it a priority to have a run-back if I’m playing Pickett. Pickett is solely a salary relief play to give us more quality exposure to those higher total games)

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs:

• Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,600 FD) – The best offensive line in the NFL against the worst run defense in the NFL. At his projected ownership of 5% on both sites, Chubb is better off as a GPP play with the expectation that this is absolutely a slate-breaking opportunity if you trust the DeShaun Watson debut.
  
• Josh Jacobs ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Jacobs pretty much ruined my GPP upside last weekend with his late game heroics (I did not play him) despite battling a calf injury all week. He’s still apparently battling that calf injury, but if he’s ruled good to go, this is the best matchup Jacobs has had in quite some time. It’ll be hard to fade the hottest hand at the running back position. He’s a quality option in all formats.
  
• Joe Mixon ($7,100 DK / $8,500 FD) – Assuming he clears the concussion protocol, Joe Mixon is likely a core-play for me in all formats of NFL DFS in Week 13. This Chiefs @ Bengals game has the highest game total on the slate and I want to ensure I get exposure to key contributors in that game. The Chiefs’ run defense is not nearly as bad as it has been in years past, but they absolutely bleed production to pass-catching running backs which is where Mixon has excelled this season. He’s one of the few “two and a half down” running backs left in the NFL. If he’s ruled out, Samaje Perine is a lock-button.
  
• Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Finally a sub-$7K price-tag in the best matchup he’s had in some time. AJ Dillon is slightly banged up with a quad injury and this is the nut-matchup against the Bears for Aaron Jones’ expected dual-threat utilization. He’s likely best left as a GPP play at sub-10% ownership.
  
• Dameon Pierce ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s been a complete bummer lately, but in NFL DFS cash games, he’s a chalky value in a great matchup against a bottom-three run defense. I don’t expect a whole lot, but if you need the savings, just take the ownership free-square in your cash games and you can consider him as a risky value in GPP lineups, but the matchup upside is there.
  
• Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – I’m prioritizing getting key pieces to these higher total games with Kansas City @ Cincinnati being at the top of that list. Pachecho is nowhere near cash viable, but in tournaments, the multiple touchdown upside is what I’ll be shooting for when rostering Pachecho. With all of the ownership in that high $5K range going to Dameon Pierce, Pachecho makes for an excellent tournament pivot in a fantastic fantasy environment. If he can get a reception or two, that’s just icing on the cake.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Kyren Williams, Zonovan Knight (going to likely be a committee)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers:

• Davante Adams ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD) – Ridiculously cheap on FanDuel this week but an elite play on all formats against the Chargers secondary who simply cannot contain Davante Adams. At his price, there are certainly concerns of heavy double-coverage limiting his upside (as Adams went for 10 receptions and over 140 yards in their previous matchup), but I’ll roll out Davante Adams with confidence as he’s received 10 more targets over the past four games than any other pass catcher in the NFL.

• AJ Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – I’m not a revenge game narrative guy so I’ll spare you reading the same statement about Brown’s time with the Titans that you’ll read literally everywhere. That means absolutely nothing to me. What matters to me is that this is a pass-funnel defense that runs a ton of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense… that is where AJ Brown absolutely smashes. This is one of the best matchups on paper for any wide receiver in the NFL this week. I could not care less about NFL DFS writers talking about revenge, lol.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – St. Brown will likely be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and I have no issues with that against Jacksonville here. Roll him out in all formats with confidence.

• Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a WR1 and a key exposure piece to what should be an absolute slugfest in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ have arguably the worst secondary in football. Josh Palmer is also a fine play at a cheaper price-tag.

• Christian Kirk ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Everyone will be chasing the value in Zay Jones and I’ll be going directly to Christian Kirk in this matchup against the Lions’ slot cornerback, Will Harris. The Lions blitz a ton and that should force Lawrence into getting the ball out of his hands early to his shorter ADOT pass-catchers, like Kirk, or this game will turn in favor of Detroit quickly.

• Garrett Wilson ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ secondary is in shambles and they are a pass-funnel defense. Wilson is going to be a top-three wide receiver in terms of ownership and like we stated last week, that is likely something we likely cannot fade in NFL DFS cash game lineups.

• Nico Collins ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Your cash game “free-square” value wide receiver now that Brandin Cooks is out. I don’t love it, but I get it.

• Trent Sherfield ($3,300 DK / $5,100 FD) – HERE IT IS… the Discord Diamond. I’m 99.9% sure I’ve never written his name in my life, but here we are.
  
  Disclaimer: he has 0% of the upside that Christian Watson had when I made that call of the year a few weeks back, but Trent Sherfield offers us a cheap piece of another higher total game in San Francisco (for one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL).
  
  As mentioned in the Kenny Pickett write-up, I need some key value in my main lineup and that lineup indeed calls for a player in the low $3,000 range (DraftKings). When really looking at prospective value players and their matchups, I focused on the following “value punts”…
  
  – DJ Chark
  – Chase Claypool
  – Olamide Zaccheaus (bring-back with my Pickett and Steeler pass-catcher stack, but we don’t want to invest in Atlanta’s passing offense)
  – Skyy Moore (he was very close to taking Sherfield’s spot in this write-up… I do like him, but don’t love the snap counts and randomness of the Chiefs’ offense. It seems like when he does run routes, he gets targeted at a significant clip. Having said that, Juju is finally back at 100% health. I don’t trust Skyy Moore).
  – Trent Sherfield
  
  Trent Sherfield is the only one on that list who runs well over 25 routes per game. In addition, Sherfield’s expected target share takes a significant jump over his baseline when facing Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone coverage. Guess what coverages the 49ers run the most? Yea, Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone. It’s disgusting, but if the rest of your lineup is loaded with upper-tier studs, I am quite confident that this is a plus-matchup for Trent Sherfield against the 49ers defense that grades 31st in pass defense DVOA to their opposition’s tertiary pass-catchers. If he can find a way to sneak into the end-zone (doubtful), we may have a massive week on our hands with a legit 0% owned, Trent Sherfield. Pray for us!

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Maar Chase, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)
  
• Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my play for NFL DFS cash games if I cannot afford the obvious Travis Kelce. Atlanta will play a ton of Cover-3 zone coverage and that’s where Freiermuth should have a field day.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Foster Moreau, Chig Okonkwo (GPP punt only)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams:

• Cleveland Browns
• New York Giants
• New York Jets
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Denver Broncos
• Houston Texans

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Josh Jacobs
• Nico Collins
• Pat Freiermuth
• Samaje Perine

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