Allan Fabrykant 
Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Loaded running back player pool! I am focusing on building my cash game lineup around 3 running backs and more of the mid-tier values at wide receiver.
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Tom Brady ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD)
Despite the let-down in Week 12, Tom Brady enters this week as arguably the top cash-game quarterback option against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. Hell, my best GPP lineup last week was with Trevor Lawrence going up against Atlanta. That is how much I despise this Falcons’ defense and will always look to attack them in NFL DFS. The Bucs have the highest implied team total on this slate and should have no issues putting up 30+ points on the road, in the dome. Brady is a staple for 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in this matchup.
Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD)
Volume, volume, volume. Week in, week out you’ll hear me preach about volume when discussing cash game lineup builds and outside of Tom Brady, there is no one that compares to the passing volume of Justin Herbert. I love this game from multiple angles and with the second highest total on the slate, I feel quite confident in loading up on this matchup. The AETY Model grades out Herbert as the fourth highest value on the slate at the quarterback position putting him well in play for cash games, despite having a relatively high price-tag at $6,700 on DK and $8,200 on FD.
Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow
NFL DFS Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($9,200 DK / $10,500 FD)
Priced up like a healthy Derrick Henry! If you can afford him, you load up Jonathan Taylor as a 10-point favorite against Houston and their 25th ranked run defense (DVOA). I do not think he’s 100% necessary for cash as there are tons of great options at the running back position this week, but there’s arguably no one safer in addition to offering ridiculous upside, like Jonathan Taylor.
Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)
Weekly spot of picking on the Chargers’ dead-last run defense in the NFL. I have him neck and neck with Jonathan Taylor as the RB1 this week with a significant discount to Taylor on both NFL DFS outlets.
Alexander Mattison ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD)
Incredibly surprised the DFS sites raised his price before knowing the true severity of Dalvin Cook’s injury, but price aside, the lead Minnesota running back is always an elite play in this outside-zone running scheme, as a touchdown-favorite against Detroit. He’d be an absolute lock in cash games if he were priced down like usual backup running backs moving into a lead role, but he’s still 100% cash viable in this high-volume running system.
Elijah Mitchell ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD)
You all know my love for Elijah Mitchell on a normal week basis, now this is Elijah Mitchell without Deebo Samuel taking key snaps out of the backfield. The Seattle Seahawks run defense is stingy on paper but has been getting carved up of late, giving up over 140 rush yards to Washington Football Team’s pair of running backs last week. Washington has been a putrid running offense this year in terms of efficiency (25th in run offense DVOA) while the run game is the heart and soul of San Francisco’s offense (7th in run offense DVOA). The 49ers and Mitchell should have no problem putting up quality fantasy numbers like the Washington backs just did.
Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
Way too cheap on both NFL DFS outlets with the assumption J.D. McKissic misses this game with a concussion. This game has one of the higher total on the slates, which in theory, provides Gibson with plenty of touchdown equity and the loss of McKissic should boost a heavy workload in the passing attack… which we finally saw glimpses of from Gibson in Week 12.
Jamaal Williams ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)
Not in love with Jamaal Williams by any means, but with no D’Andre Swift, we can assume this will lead to a heavy workload in Dan Campbell’s extremely run-heavy offense. I would not be surprised to see a bit more Jermar Jefferson this week, but Jamaal Williams will still get the lion-share of the carries/targets and demand 45% or more ownership in NFL DFS cash games.
UPDATE: Sony Michel is a fine cash play if Henderson is OUT.
Honorable Mention: James Conner, Sony Michel
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)
If you cannot afford Tom Brady, get exposure to him through Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin let many of you down last week, but we cannot play this game with extreme recency bias in any direction. Godwin is in an excellent spot for 5+ receptions and 75 or more receiving yards with significant touchdown equity.
Brandin Cooks ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)
Wide receivers against the Colts’ secondary… sound familiar? Yes? We do it every week and it more times than not will go in our favor. Cooks is a mid-tier priced, WR1 in a game where the Texans will be chasing points from the get-go. I never love to roster Cooks, but the price-tag and matchup screams to play him in cash, especially with 35% or more of the field likely to roster him. Rock Ya-Sin will get torched multiple times by Cooks’ elite route running.
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
Absolute lock for me in cash games this week as Brandon Aiyuk takes over the X spot in the 49ers’ wide receiving core while Deebo Samuel is out with injury. This will be one of the rare weeks I’m okay with “stacking” an offense in cash games, using Eli Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk together. If I had to choose one, it’s Aiyuk.
Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
Mike Williams is quietly coming back to life and 100% healthy, which we haven’t seen since he lit the fantasy football world on fire earlier in this 2021 season. We all know this offense runs through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but at this low of a price-tag and 20 targets in the past three games, Mike Williams is an extreme cash game value on a week many of you will look to pay up at running back. Do we even need to talk about the matchup on the outside with Eli Apple? Let’s go, Big Mike!
Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Terry McLaurin
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:
– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Top-Tier
– Los Angeles Rams
– Indianapolis Colts
Mid-Tier
– Philadelphia Eagles
– Miami Dolphins
Punts
– Las Vegas Raiders
– New York Giants
– Chicago Bears
– Detroit Lions
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
