NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all! It was awesome to see all the winning screenshots come in on Thursday… now if only the Hunter Henry second touchdown got to stand! Let’s move on to the Week 12 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me (and so will the writeup unfortunately as I’m about to go on a 5-hour roadtrip to get back home in time for the Sunday livestream).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and in an excellent spot against the 26th ranked defense in terms of DVOA. With offensive tackle, Ronnie Stanley out for this game, it’s probably best to leave Lamar Jackson to NFL DFS GPP lineups but you could do worse in cash if you want to pay up.
  
• Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,900 FD) – My overall favorite quarterback play on the slate by a wide-margin. We pick on the Arizona defense damn near every week and we won’t stop here now that Keenan Allen is back and the only quality corner for Arizona, Byron Murphy, is OUT. Expect a ton of back-and-forth passing attacks for both offenses as Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals. Justin Herbert is a core-play for me in cash game and GPP formats.
  
• Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – On DraftKings, Geno Smith will likely garner the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with him as a cheaper option in cash games, but with all the value at the running-back position, you probably won’t need the salary relief at quarterback. If the weather report looks better in Seattle tomorrow morning, I’d have more interest here.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Austin Ekeler ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – Decent price for a top-tier dual-threat option in a fantastic game environment.
  
• Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,500 FD) – Derrick Henry under 10% owned, at home. There is absolutely nothing about this Cincinnati defense that should scare you away from Derrick Henry. If you can afford him, he’s a high-upside, slate-breaking option.
  
• Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – I prefer the price on DraftKings here for Walker, but Las Vegas Raiders defense is dead last in overall defense DVOA. They are an absolute mess and this should lead to plenty of red-zone opportunities for Kenneth Walker.
  
• James Conner ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – A cheaper and less productive version of Austin Ekeler, but the dual-threat and red-zone ability for James Conner is hard to ignore in a game that I want to get as much exposure to as I can. The Chargers’ run defense grades 30th in DVOA.

The Value Running Backs

• Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – A little pricey on FanDuel but an absolute lock on DraftKings against this Houston run defense. We love double-digit, home-favorite running backs.
  
• Antonio Gibson ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap and likely sub-10% owned on all NFL DFS formats. Gibson is the best option in this Washington backfield and the pass-catching floor makes me very interested in Gibson against this Falcons’ 28th ranked defense (DVOA).
  
• Rachaad White ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Similar to Jeff Wilson Jr., I’ll likely be locking in Rachaad White in all formats now that Leonard Fournette is ruled out and they have a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL (DVOA).

*Note: I’m out on a 30% owned Samaje Perine. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans will both be active and have a role the public doesn’t seem to respect. I understand if you want to chase the points from last week, but I don’t play running backs against the Titans (especially when I don’t believe they have a 60% or higher snap-share coming).

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – My clear top-option at the wide receiver position this week. Simple as that.
  
• DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – D-Hop continues to get a monster target share and Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and likely Greg Dortch. With or without Marquise Brown, Hopkins is going to have a very active day in the Arizona passing game like he always does against the Chargers wasteland of a secondary.
  
• Tee Higgins ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a pass funnel defense in the Tennessee Titans and no Ja’Maar Chase.
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves this spot for DK Metcalf going up against the Raiders. This defense is a disaster and the AETY Model’s coverage scheme grades seem to believe this is a potential blow-up spot for DK Metcalf. Keep an eye on the forecast, but if it’s relatively clean we’re rolling out Metcalf with the utmost confidence.
  
• Keenan Allen ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) & Josh Palmer ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – The easy two stack options for Justin Herbert. Both of their prices are extremely too low for the floors and upside they possess in this matchup.
  
• Treylon Burks ($4,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – A cheap WR1 in a nice matchup is something we’re always interested in for our NFL DFS lineups. The Bengals will run a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is a matchup advantage for Treylon Burks.

Honorable Mention: Chris Olave, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Mack Hollins

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Now that Andrews is back to 100% health, it’s all systems go this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who grade dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Jacksonville will run a ton of Cover-2 zone defense with some Cover-1 and Cover-3 mixed in… all of which Mark Andrews exceeds his baseline numbers against (which are sexy to begin with). No need to get cute at the tight-end position when there is so much value at the running back position.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Foster Moreau, Hayden Hurst (love this spot for him without Ja’Maar Chase), Trey McBride (absolute punt, but viable in a LAC/AZ game stack)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

• Denver Broncos
• New York Jets
• Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Cleveland Browns

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Justin Herbert
• Jeff Wilson Jr.
• Rachaad White
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Mark Andrews

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.